Earnings Labs

Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 24, 2013

$14.83

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Clearwater Paper Second Quarter 2013 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions.) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, John Hertz. Please go ahead.

John Hertz

Management

Thank you, Patrick. Good afternoon and welcome to Clearwater Paper Second Quarter 2013 Conference Call. Our press release this afternoon includes details regarding our second quarter results, and you'll find a presentation of supplemental information posted on the Investor Relations area of our website at clearwaterpaper.com. Additionally, we provide certain non-GAAP information in this afternoon's discussion. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP information to comparable GAAP information is included in the press release or in the supplemental material provided on our website. I would like to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions, and projections that are subject to change, and actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include those expressed or implied by risks and uncertainties described from time to time in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, and our quarterly filings on Form 10- Q. Any forward-looking statements are made only as of this date, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. So now, turning to our second quarter financial performance. I'll start with a little housekeeping consistent with last quarter. We are providing both Q2 GAAP results and those that are adjusted to exclude a charge and a benefit that we believe are not indicative of our core operating performance. The charge is an approximate $1 million in relocation and exit-related expenses associated with the planned closure of our Thomaston converting facility, and the benefit is an approximate $1 million in mark-to-market adjustments to outstanding directors common stock units. Now, getting to the results. In the…

Linda Massman

Management

Thanks, John. Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. It's been an active few months, since we spoke in late April. We've been focusing on improving our Q1 performance, by aggressively controlling costs, ensuring that Shelby production is strong, working with key retailers to implement TAD, and capitalizing on favorable market conditions with demand and pricing both up. We delivered a solid quarter, highlighted by sequential increases in net sales, adjusted EBITDA, and net earnings. We expect continued increases in net sales in the third quarter, as compared to the second quarter as the TAD bathroom tissue program accelerates and our paperboard price increases are reflected for a full quarter. Things improved in the second quarter and there continues to be room for improvement as we work toward our longer-term goal of achieving a 15% EBITDA margin. Now, let me discuss the outlook for each of our business segments. Beginning with the consumer products division, the overall US retail tissue market was up 2.2% to 250 million equivalent cases in the first half of 2013 versus the first half of 2012. Private label tissue grew 2.4% and still represents 26% of the tissue market, while Clearwater Paper cases shipped rose 4% to 28 million cases in the first half of 2013. Our third quarter outlook for the consumer division is for tissue production volumes to be up 1% to 3%, versus the second quarter, as Shelby continues to ramp and we incur less scheduled maintenance down time at our other facilities. We also expect a 1% to 3% increase in shipment tons, with increased TAD tissue, parent roll, and machine-glazed shipments. We expect average tissue price per ton to rise 1% to 3%, versus the second quarter, due to the increasing mix of TAD tissue. As John stated, TAD…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions.) Our first question comes from Steve Chercover from D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: Good afternoon, everyone.

John Hertz

Management

Hi, Steve. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: So, talking about 2014, it's good to hear you reiterate your $300 million EBITDA guidance. And since we know that the CapEx is already drawing to a close, is it reasonable to expect that the repo will be renewed or a dividend will be put in place?

John Hertz

Management

Yes, Steve. What we said back in January when we refinanced the debt and announced the existing stock repurchase authorization was that we were committed in '14 and '15 to return 50% of discretionary free cash flow to shareholders. We did not specify whether that would be share repurchase or dividend, so we're open, right now, to either of those. And those are discussions that we will begin to have with our Board in the fall and with the final decision around Christmas time. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: Okay. But then, it's reasonable to say that free cash flow is going to be better?

John Hertz

Management

Okay. That's reasonable. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: Yes.

John Hertz

Management

I think that is reasonable.

Linda Massman

Management

Yes. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: That's good. You don't have to be a genius to figure that out, but it's nice to hear it. And then, two quick things on tissue. GP recently indicated that they're going to introduce a Quilted Northern facial tissue. Up until now, Quilted Northern has just been a bath brand. Do you expect that to hurt you at all in private label?

Linda Massman

Management

You know, Steve, I think, it's too early to know all that, but let me just leave it at this, that we always monitor the national brands, and our strategy on tissue is to make sure we're competitive in every way with the national brands. Obviously, we have to pick kind of a target product that we would look to replicate, and that will, obviously, be a product that has good consumer acceptance. So, when we look to be that national brand equivalent in sheet count, dimension, quality, and we're really trying to drive towards having the consumer experience be identical to the national brand but, obviously, at a significant savings to both the consumer and the customer, so that's kind of the way we look at it. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: Okay. And then, you – a final question. You indicated the early acceptance of the Shelby TAD has been very strong, but you also said that commitments have been a little bit longer coming than you earlier anticipated. So, is that because your prospective clients are maybe sampling some of the other new product that's coming to the market place? Or can you try and explain what seems to be a little bit I guess unexpected?

Linda Massman

Management

I think the way I would characterize it is with any new product launch you do your best to predict how it's going to go. And in this case I would say it's probably been more function of the prediction that how it's going. We're actually very pleased with how customers are responding to our TAD launch and remain very confident that we're on track to that $75 million EBITDA in Q1 2014. Of course, the exact timing of any given customer is always a hard thing to predict, but we remain very confident. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co: Great. Thanks, Linda.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Your line is open. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co: Great. Thank you very much. Question would be on slide 12, on the bridge to get to the $75 million of quarterly run rate EBITDA. If you were to sort of include all the puts and takes of the price increases, some of the cost inflations, what would that then do to your $75 million, because I know you have put through some of the price increases towards the end of this quarter so they're not necessarily captured in this bridge, or am I – or are they and they just sort of net out with the increased cost?

John Hertz

Management

Yes. I mean as you can tell, I’m not – we tried to give a little flavor given that when we first came out with the $300 million, we said the assumption was that same cost structure as 2011; a little flavor for how we've seen that kind of cost structure trend, versus what we saw now in the second quarter of 2013. And you can kind of tell by the red on there; it's more headwinds than it is tailwinds. And it's not something that's like very easy to precisely measure. But if you just make some assumptions, we kind of circle around about an $8 million per quarter in headwinds versus 2011 cost structure. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co: And that's as of today? Or that was as of the second quarter, because there were some changes in the second quarter?

John Hertz

Management

That is if you look at what our cost structure makeup was in the second quarter of 2013 versus the full year of 2011. Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co: Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from James Armstrong from Vertical Research Partners. Your line is open. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Good afternoon.

John Hertz

Management

Hello. (CROSSTALKING) Ian Zaffino – Oppenheimer & Co: Hey. The first question I have is on the electrical disruption at the Arkansas facility. How long did that last? And when did it happen?

John Hertz

Management

So, it lasted two days.

Linda Massman

Management

Yes.

John Hertz

Management

And it happened right about the time of the tornados that were happening in that region. And so, that actually resulted in a bit of delay about getting the thing up and running because obviously the people needed to get things back up and running were somewhat otherwise occupied. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Yes. Understandable. Switching gears a bit, what do you think next year, as you get into the – fully ramped up in TAD, what do you think your retail versus away-from-home mix and tissue will look like?

Linda Massman

Management

Yes. That's a good question. It's going to depend on our selling process, I would think. It would mix out to more retail. I mean that would be our anticipated outcome, but it's going to depend on how quickly the customers ramp up with their adoption of TAD and then how quickly we can take the conventional tons and replace those into additional retailers. So, we'll try to work on modeling that out a little bit better for you and give you a little bit of help on that as we progress through the year. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Very good. And then lastly, switching gears once more. On the EBITDA bridges, the other categories are somewhat large. I was just – could you just give us a bit of flavor what items are included in those other parts of the bridge?

John Hertz

Management

You know it's kind of a grab bag of, you know, individually small things. I don't know that I – any one thing jumps out that I would identify over the others. James Armstrong – Vertical Research Partners: Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Stivaletti from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

John Hertz

Management

Hi, Joe. Joe Stivaletti – Goldman Sachs: Hi. Good afternoon. I just wondered if you could – just a few numbers. Can you summarize the impact of higher market pulp prices on a year-to-date basis and also give us your expectations in terms of the full year there?

John Hertz

Management

But, I guess, on a year-to-date basis, it's gone against us about $4 million. And so, if we think about the full year and we said $2 million to $3 million in the third quarter, we're up to $6 million going against us. But, then, we start to benefit, we think, from pulp prices coming down in the fourth quarter. I'm not going to throw a prediction as to how much we'll benefit right now, but we think that turns for us in our financials in the fourth quarter. Joe Stivaletti – Goldman Sachs: Okay. And then, just a couple of things – sorry if I missed this – but your pension funding this year that you're expecting versus your pension expense that you're expecting?

John Hertz

Management

Yes. So, I think, from a cash perspective, we spend ($17 million) and we're about $12 million to $15 million in expense. So, a little bit more on the cash than the expense. Joe Stivaletti – Goldman Sachs: Okay. All right. That was all I had. Thank you.

John Hertz

Management

Okay? (You that).

Linda Massman

Management

Thanks.

John Hertz

Management

Thanks, Joe.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This ends our question-and-answer session today. I'll turn it back to management for closing remarks.

Linda Massman

Management

Great. Thank you everybody for joining us on the call. We appreciate your time and we look forward to potentially seeing you in Las Vegas or New York or on next quarter's call. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for participating in today's program. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.