Earnings Labs

Celestica Inc. (CLS)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 21, 2016

$372.53

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Celestica, Inc. Earnings Call for the Third Quarter of 2016. [Operator Instructions]. I would like to turn the meeting over to one of your hosts for today's call, Lisa Headrick Harpell, Senior Director Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Lisa Headrick Harpell

Analyst

Good evening and thank you for joining us on Celestica's third quarter of 2016 earnings conference call. On the call today are Rob Mionis, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Darren Myers, Chief Financial Officer. This conference call will last approximately 45 minutes. Darren and Rob will provide some brief comments on the quarter and then we will open the call up for questions. During the Q&A session, please limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up. We will be available after the conference call for additional follow-up. Please visit www.celestica.com to view the supporting slides accompanying this webcast. As a reminder, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meanings of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian Securities laws, including those related to our plans for future growth, trends in our industry and end markets, our anticipated financial and operational results and performance and financial guidance. Such forward-looking statements are based on Management's current expectations, forecasts and assumptions which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes and results to differ materially from conclusions, forecasts or projections expressed in such statements. Please refer to our cautionary statements regarding forward-looking information in the Company's various public filings, including the cautionary note regarding forward-looking information in today's press release. We also refer you to the Company's various public filings which contain and identify material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements and which discuss material factors and assumptions on which such forward-looking statements are based. These filings include our most recent MD&A annual report on Form 20-F filed with and subsequent reports on Form 6-K furnished to, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and our Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators which can be accessed respectively at www.sec.gov and www.sedar.com. During this call, we will also refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures which include adjusted gross margin; adjusted SG&A; adjusted operating earnings or adjusted EBIAT; adjusted operating margins which is adjusted operating earnings as a percentage of revenue; adjusted net earnings and adjusted EPS; return on invested capital or ROIC; inventory turns; cash cycle days; free cash flow; adjusted tax rate and adjusted tax expense. These non-IFRS measures do not have any standardized meanings under IFRS and may not be comparable with other non-U.S. GAAP or non-IFRS financial measures presented by other public companies, including those presented by our major competitors. We refer you to today's press release which is available at www.celestica.com for more information about these and certain other non-IFRS measures, including a reconciliation of historical non-IFRS measures to the corresponding IFRS measures, where a comparable IFRS measure exists. I will now turn the call over to Darren Myers.

Darren Myers

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

Thank you, Lisa and good evening everyone. Celestica delivered a strong third quarter, with year-over-year growth in revenue, earnings, free cash flow and return on invested capital. Third quarter revenue of $1.55 billion was at the high end of our guidance range led by program strength in our communications end market. Let me begin with a few highlights for the third quarter. Revenue in the quarter increased 10% compared to the third quarter of 2015, primarily due to strong program demand and our communications market and new programs in a diversified end storage markets. Revenue from our diversified markets grew 9% year over year and represented 30% of total revenue. IFRS net earnings were $54 million, an increase of $43 million relative to the third quarter of 2015. Adjusted operating margin was 3.8%, 20 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance and flat year to year. Adjusted earnings were per $0.43 per share and included net positive tax-related impacts of $0.11. Without this benefit, adjusted earnings per share of $0.32 was above the midpoint of our guidance and we achieved return on invested capital of 21.2%. Moving on to our revenue from an end market perspective, diversified revenue increased 3% sequentially and 9% year over year which was below our expectations, due to increased volatility in the solar panel market which impacted our third quarter demand. The year-over-year increase in our diversified market was primarily due to new program ramps in our energy business. Our communications end market performed better than expected, represented 43% of total revenue and was up 10% sequentially due to strong demand, including from new programs. Compared with the third quarter of 2015, communications revenue was up 16% as a result of new program ramps and continued demand strength in optical. Our storage business came…

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you Darren and good evening to everyone on the call and thank you for joining us today. Celestica delivered another solid quarter, with our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. During the quarter we delivered growth in revenue, operating margin, return on invested capital and generated strong free cash flow. We continued to deliver strong operational execution to our customers, while driving productivity improvements across our network. Overall, we're pleased with our year-to-date performance and we're also pleased with our performance relative to our EMS peers. Our full-year forecast, based on our fourth quarter guidance, equates to full-year 2016 growth of 5% in revenue, with 12% growth in adjusted operating earnings. We expect our diversified markets to grow by 11% for the full year, as we continue to focus on accelerating our growth. Throughout 2016, the Celestica team has been maintaining focus on our strategic priorities. We're proud to be making meaningful progress towards achieving sustainable, profitable growth and margin expansion. Let me provide some additional perspective on the third quarter results. Celestica generated $100 million of free cash flow, delivered 10% year-to-year revenue growth, with adjusted operating margins of 3.8%. We're pleased to deliver another strong quarter. Relative to the third quarter of 2015, we generated substantial growth across our three largest markets, communications, diversified and storage, driven by both demand strength and new programs. Let me provide some additional color on our solar panel business and what we're seeing in this market. Over the last 90 days, the global solar panel market has seen adverse market factors, affecting demand and pricing. Industry overcapacity has led to sharp reductions in demand and pricing for solar panels. Although we have made considerable progress in driving operational improvements in our solar panel business, the third quarter was negatively impacted…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from Robert Young, Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Robert Young

Analyst

You said that Karel Manufacturing isn't a meaningful economics here, is that included in the Q4 guidance? You said it's going to close somewhere around the beginning of Q4?

Darren Myers

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

It's Darren here. Karel will probably close at somewhere in the fourth quarter. You know, overall, I will tell you the purchase price is in the $15 million range, so is not an overly material acquisition. We're not going to give -- given the size of it, we're not going to give the disclosures or transparency on the metrics of the deal.

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

No, but we're excited that it really expands our capabilities where we already have a leadership position. And the capabilities that we're picking up really will help us in the future.

Robert Young

Analyst

Is there anything new that is providing, any new capabilities you didn't have before?

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes, several. It has complex wire harness capability, it also has machining, sheet metal and welding. And the machining, one of the products it produces is electronic enclosures, so these enclosures are basically used for avionics, black boxes, so anything you would see in a cockpit, it basically makes enclosures. So this type of capability will enable us to eliminate a margin stack and frankly have a pretty strong growth pipeline lined up for Karel once it closes.

Robert Young

Analyst

Okay. And then my second question would be around the semi business. I think you said you expected it to offset weakness in solar. Can you give us an update on where that business is relative to the improvements you expected to drive? And I think you've said there was some margin opportunity, if you were to get the solar and semiconductor business back on track where you wanted it, can you update us with that figure? And I'll pass the line.

Darren Myers

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

Rob, overall the semiconductor has made a number of improvements through the year and there's certainly some tailwinds and maybe Rob will give some comments after just about what we're seeing in the market. But performance-wise, things that have been getting better. We've also been investing or taking out certain cost structure that's been hitting us, so I would say it's operating at just in the low levels of profitability now. It is in the black which is good. As we look forward I think into next year, depending on what happens on the revenue side, certainly we would expect to be accretive on the gross margin basis to the company, really in the second half of 2017 depending on revenue. So that one is making improvements and as we talked about solar panels, the market has caused us some heartburn this quarter. I would say when you normalize the operational improvements that we have made operationally, we're kind of treading water in the solar panel, as we deal with some of this disruption. The combination of those two is still probably around 30 basis points if you were to click your heels and put them at the company average. We're still at around that 30 basis points that we've talked about in the past.

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

And Robert, I will add on the semi side, in terms of the demand side, we're encouraged that we're seeing some small tailwinds in demand. When you step back and look at the macro environment, we're seeing a ramp-up, obviously, in 3D NAND and growing foundry and logic spending in leading edge and even non-leading edge and we're seeing we're benefactor of that. So we're encouraged with where we're in the cycle and plan on capitalizing on the growth moving forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Thanos Moschopoulos with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thanos Moschopoulos

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Maybe starting off on the communication side of the business, very good growth there, obviously. Rob, could you maybe quantify qualitatively? I mean, is it more to do with optical or more to do with new programs and share gains? And, I guess in recent weeks there have been some negative data points coming out of the sector, are you seeing any of that? Or are there other factors offsetting your business?

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes, Thanos, so our growth in communication is really driven by both strong end market demand in optical and also new program ramps. If you peel it back a little bit more, what we're seeing is data center demand and much increased metro network upgrades which is kind of the source of the demand. We're on some good programs and have some great optical capability within our portfolio. And we're taking advantage of that market strength right now. In terms of the overall market, communications buildout seems to be lumpy. We've done our best to forecast guidance into Q4 and beyond that, we will have to see how the markets react and how the continued spending rolls out into 2017 and beyond.

Thanos Moschopoulos

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

And then now, obviously, with the acquisition this quarter, can you talk a bit about how the M&A pipeline generally has been shaping up in terms of other initiatives, other opportunities you might be looking at beyond the one you will be closing next quarter?

Rob Mionis

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yes, Thanos. So, as we mentioned last quarter, we recently hired a new Chief Strategy Officer and he is building out his team and the pipeline, in terms of opportunities, is growing. But that will take some time to fully vet out the pipeline and turn some of those opportunities into potential actions which we think might play out into 2017 and beyond. We're planning on being laser focused to make sure whatever we act on really improves the overall valuation of the Company and adds shareholder value.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Paul Steep with Scotia. Your line is open.

Paul Steep

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

Rob, could you maybe comment -- or maybe it's more to Darren as well, given some of the history on the Company. How has the Company fared in prior cycles when the communications end markets customers have gone through a period of consolidation or other changes which looks like in recent weeks is about to maybe occur in the next little bit?

Darren Myers

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

Darren. Hard for me to think back how we -- I mean, for us, we've continue to perform well with our customers. We're ranked number one and number two on most of our scorecards and perform very well. We certainly have been the benefactor as customers have gone through that and an example of that was Juniper which we talked about a few years ago. But on the other side there has been losses from time to time. So, for us it is continue to focus on executing, it's focusing on our JDM platforms being more relevant, bringing thought leadership to the industry and trying to position and be a benefactor through these changes. It's certainly the approach that we have.

Paul Steep

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

And then, just to clarify on Karel Manufacturing, are you a substantial portion of the volume already in that business? I.e., is this a play to further vertically integrate and gain the benefits of running your own supply, as well as add the new capabilities that Rob had talked about?

Rob Mionis

Analyst · Scotia. Your line is open

Yes, so it's Karel Manufacturing -- you know, the growth profile really is some product that we're currently outsourcing and we plan on resourcing it to Karel. We also think because Karel will be part of our broader Company with a lot more capability, that we will be able to hunt in new places where Karel was limited in the past. So overall the value proposition for Karel is very strong.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Gus Papageorgiou with Macquarie. Your line is open.

Gus Papageorgiou

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

I just want to touch again on the communication and storage markets. I mean, your performance there is significantly better than the end markets in total. I'm just wondering -- I guess it's partially because of better supply consolidation, like you mentioned Juniper and I guess specific target markets like MetroOptical that you're participating in. How sustainable is this momentum? I mean, do you think maybe going into next year you would revert to the mean of industry growth which is probably negative or do you think you can maintain the kind of superior performance into next year?

Rob Mionis

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

We're very pleased with the capabilities we have, the programs we're on, the customers that we're supporting. And we think we're -- based on the current trends, we're very nicely positioned in terms of how that market unfolds in the dynamics of the marketplace. It is probably hard for me to comment at this time.

Darren Myers

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Yes, Gus, I mean, clearly it is always program-specific and we're on some good programs and have some good winds and we know we have great reputation in that market. So, longer term, it's going to always be hard to beat the market repeatedly. So eventually things do go to where the market forces are, but it certainly depends on the programs you're on.

Gus Papageorgiou

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Do you think there's any more opportunity for supplier consolidation where you can take share? Or do you think things are kind of at an equilibrium right now?

Darren Myers

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

Probably tough for us to say on that side. It's going to be up to the OEMs frankly more than it is going to be with the EMS players.

Rob Mionis

Analyst · Macquarie. Your line is open

We have been picking up some share during this cycle, but that is largely based on our programs and our performance that we're performing so well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jim Suva with Citi. Your line is open.

Jim Suva

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Probably a CEO question and a clarification for CFO. CEO, you'd mentioned the communication tends to be pretty lumpy, but actually looking at your forecast, the results this quarter and the past few quarters, it actually looks like it's not been lumpy. It's actually been very up and to the right. So can you help me understand your comments around lumpy, is kind of looking ahead, we should expect some more bumps, because it looks like it's been cruising along quite strong there and I'm looking at year over year, mostly. And then, clarifications for the finance side of the call is -- the taxes, the benefit this quarter, is that truly a one-time thing or is there the potential to get some more benefits from that in the quarters ahead or if you get help us understand that. I know you said the outlook is 17% to 19%, but, you know, three months ago I don't think we exactly expected this type of benefit you had and I'm just wondering if there's still more left to that benefit. Thank you.

Rob Mionis

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

Yes, Jim. So, the lumpiness was really answering the broad market, you know as data centers gets filled out they tend to go in projects. And some of the metro network upgrades tend to go in projects. But because these are, I guess, long-lasting trends and play to our strengths and basically on the programs that we're fortunate enough to wind, it has been giving us some sustainable profitable growth which we're pleased with, it's just hard to say how long that will last depending on the buying patterns of the ultimate end customers.

Darren Myers

Analyst · Citi. Your line is open

And Jim, I would add to that. We're certainly pleased to have -- we have very little if almost no wireless exposure, so you definitely see lumpiness in the wireless market as build outs happen. A significant portion of our communications is in optical which we think has some runaway and some good long term trends, so pleased with that. But hard to say were all those programs will go over the longer term. From your tax question, it is more one time in nature. So, the benefit was primarily driven this quarter by a positive transfer pricing audit that's been ongoing for years, where we had a positive settlement this quarter, so that drove an $0.11 cent impact overall to the quarter, but for the fourth quarter 17% to 19% is the rate we have guided.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in queue. I will now turn the call back over to the presenters.