Andrew Littlefair
Management
No, you've got a lot of things there. First off, it's not just West Coast, right? So this is nationwide. Upstate New York, Wisconsin. We have a bunch of stuff in Wisconsin. So remember, we've got the pipeline system and that's the beauty of RNG. Unlike some of our friends in the alternative fuel space that talk about building out a hydrogen infrastructure, well, we have the infrastructure. It's already in place. It's all across the country. So it's a matter of charting the pipelines and the pathway from Wisconsin and Texas and to California. We want that dairy stuff to come to California, but there will be a day not too distant when you have other states -- look, New York state and the Northeastern states are looking at a low-carbon fuel standard. So the market is getting ready to open up dramatically. And I might just mention to you, you probably know this, but I learned it a while back so I get to repeat it, but there are 40,000 dairies in the United States. Now some of them are small, and so they're not the first ones you're going to do, right? And we're targeting those that are larger and they have more sophisticated manure handling operations and because that makes them more efficient. In some ways, it may mean that they -- their carbon profile is maybe not as bad as some guys that don't handle their manure correctly, but you'll be kind of focused on those dairies that are sort of 7,500 and above. There's lots of those. There's lots of competition right now. There's going to be a lot more competition. And for the 5 billion to 7 billion gallons of dairy I've talked about, you need the $50 billion to $70 billion. The economics on that, look, this could change over time. It's about a 3-year, 3.5-year payback, so the economics are good on that. These are long life projects. And you're going to see these deals where it's very profitable for the farmer, for the dairy owner, and it's profitable for us. And there's enough room in there for everybody down through the system, the fleet operator as well as the fuel provider. Amazon deal, all I'll say on that is the requirement is that the fuel all be RNG, all right? So in terms of a commitment, I guess you didn't say, but a take-or-pay, no, but there is a fuel commitment. But on the RNG side, there's a demand, right, because it has to be RNG. And so I know by what I/we are privy to, based on our deal with them is we have to get really busy developing more and more RNG to satisfy just Amazon and our other customers that want it. There will be hundreds of these projects underway in the next few years. And there's been about 400 projects, dairy projects. A lot of it doesn't go into the vehicle market. And some of them are smaller and some of them are in the stationary. So this isn't new either. And it's not inexpensive. There's some let's just call it loosely plumbing involved and a gathering systems at the dairies because some of these dairies have 2 and 3 different sort of farms associated with them. And then it's the movement over to the interconnect out to the pipeline system. But it's not rocket science, right? In terms of kind of embedded in your questions, well, how do these things -- how does it happen? Well, our most recent ones that took us from introduction to signing, the one that we did, signed this morning, it 75 days. And so we like that. We found a couple of weeks in there that we think next time we can peel off. So that, for a long-term multimillion-dollar project, that seems reasonable to me. That doesn't seem to be too slow, seems about right. Then the construction phase is somewhere between 6 to 9 months, and the longest piece of this is not so much the construction, because that's fairly straightforward. It's the certification process. It's getting it on production the 3-month, the 6-month and then the 9-month. Once you get them, you're able to start really generating the credit. So it's an 18-month process, 18 months before you're really able to -- now you can be on production before that, but you're not collecting the certificates until toward the end of that time frame. So that's why it's important to have as many of these projects begin to queue up in the pipeline because they take a while to get on production.