Todd Borgmann
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead
All right, thanks, John. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarterly earnings call of 2025. We’re a little over four months into what has already been an action-packed year. Calumet began 2025 by closing and funding our DOE loan, the first of its kind under the Trump administration. This transaction strengthens Montana Renewables’ balance sheet and ensures stability of the business, even during difficult markets, just like the one we saw in the first quarter. We also completed the accretive sale of our Royal Purple industrial business. And, this morning launched a $150 million partial call of our 2026 notes as we execute our deleveraging strategy. Further, we’re also progressing additional strategic activity, which we won’t fully detail today for obvious reasons. But we will update on a breakthrough in our expectations around the Montana Renewables MaxSAF project, as we now expect to reach our next milestone of 150 million gallons of SAF capacity, dramatically more cheaply and quickly than originally expected. This project adds immense value to our near-term outlook, as the renewable diesel industry awaits regulatory clarity, which we view as the critical open item to a partial monetization of Montana Renewables, which is Calumet’s final deleveraging step. Before diving into those details, I’d like to take a moment to step back and frame the broader macroeconomic environment and its impact on Calumet. Despite the prevalence of widespread headlines regarding potential recession, we’re not seeing real signs of recession within our business. One example is the first quarter marked one of the highest specialty sales volume periods in company history, during what’s typically a slow season nonetheless. That being said, with broad economic nervousness in the market, we went back and dusted off our COVID-era specialties playbook, which was effective during that global slowdown, which was arguably much more dramatic for our industry than what most are expecting now. What we see is the attributes underpinning our company’s resilience that allowed us to generate positive free cash flow back then, continue to be enforced today, and largely in improved fashion. The resilience of our specialty business is anchored by our integrated asset base, our approach to commercial excellence, and a continuing improvement in our operational reliability and cost control. Let’s look deeper into specialties on slide four. Calumet’s flexibility and financial resilience is underpinned by a few pillars. First, we serve over 3,000 customers with nearly 2,000 products globally, spanning in markets from consumer staples and pharmaceuticals to seasonal applications like road paving. This allows us to dynamically shift our product placement as markets evolve. Second, we operate our specialties assets as a network, not standalone sites, which provides unparalleled flexibility due to the complementary nature and a near proximity of our largest facilities. We constantly manage make versus buy decisions, adjust feedstock slates, and optimize operations to match market needs.
a : These core strengths allow consistent performance across cycles, and while we have the ability to sell overseas, and we do so from time-to-time, tariffs are not expected to materially impact us as our operations are domestic, and the great majority of our sales fall within the U.S. or under U.S. MCA. To see the power of Calumet's commercial approach, we need to go no further than recent performance brand results. Since transitioning to a unified specialty business two years ago, our performance brand segment has delivered robust volume growth, and EBITDA on this segment has more than doubled. We've seen this success within our Trufield brand in particular. In 2024, Trufield contributed roughly one-third of our segment EBITDA, as full-year volumes grew over 20%, a trend that continues into the first quarter. Growth drivers include a successful marketing strategy targeting first responders and large-volume users, increasing shelf space at the major retailers, including recent entry into Walmart, and on a more macro level, long-term growth within the outdoor power equipment segment. Trufield has roughly a 65% market share in its space, but the space as a whole is not that well known, which we are changing rapidly. This is a key to continued growth in this brand, as we have proven that once customers become aware of Trufield, the likelihood of repeat loyal purchasing is off the charts. On the operational front, our cost reduction initiatives are delivering results. Last quarter, I mentioned that we continue to fortify our operations and expect to take over $20 million of operating costs out of the business this year, and in the first quarter, we saw this. While winter season always seems to pose a few challenges across northwest Louisiana and the railways and the Rockies, total system operating costs were reduced by nearly $5 per barrel versus the first quarter of last year, or just over $22 million, which is after accounting for the roughly $4 million increase in the cost of natural gas. As we know, much of this improvement has come at Montana Renewables, as we've reduced costs dramatically with innovations around producing less water for disposal and increasing our reliability. But it's worth noting the improvement in our specialty business as well, where we saw our operating costs improved by roughly $1.50 a barrel in the first quarter, anchored by a roughly $5 million quarterly reduction in year-over-year fixed costs and an 8% increase in production volume. Strong day-to-day execution combined with the competitively advantaged position of our Montana Renewables business and ultra-resilient specialties business allow us to expect positive cash flow across the economic cycle, which we saw during COVID and expect to replicate again here in 2025, especially with the cost of MRL's old capital structure now removed. Let's turn to slide 5, where we discussed renewable market dynamics. First, Montana Renewables generated $2.4 million of adjusted EBITDA, including the PTCs in the first quarter. Dave will talk more about this and our plan with PPCs momentarily, but in a post-DOE world, Montana Renewables' ability to generate positive EBITDA tax attributes, even in the lowest index margin we've ever seen, is representative of our competitive position, which we see in the supply stack on the left-hand side of this slide. You'll see we've updated the stack for 2025 production, where we've added new production that's come online and reduced others who have departed. You'll see the implied biomass-based diesel annual demand from the current RVO is about 4.5 billion gallons, which includes 3.5 billion gallons from the D4 mandate and about 1 billion gallons of D6 mandates that are not able to be met, so D4s are used to fill the obligation. During the first quarter, we saw major decreases in D4 RIN generation as the PTC rolled into place, imports stopped, and biodiesel saw a dramatic shutdown. As the RVO is reset and the biomass-based diesel required to meet that demand moves to the right, we'd expect index margins to adjust accordingly as shutdown biodiesel will need to be incentivized to restart. This, of course, is not a change to our long-term expectation, but it took the large cash losses associated with the PTC change to force the biodiesel industry and some renewable diesel to shut down, and hopefully we'll be seeing actions in the not-too-distant future that encourage these ag businesses to restart as new crush plants have been invested in and seed ordered, assuming that the renewable fuels growth trend will continue. On the right side of this slide, we see Q1 biomass-based diesel production undershot the RVO by about 230 million gallons. How could it be that we underran the compliance level by roughly 1 billion gallons on an annualized basis, and at the same time we just saw a record low index margin quarter? We believe the answer to that lies in the overproduction in 2024, and it's a temporary dynamic. This chart shows that just as industry overran the RVO implied demand in the first quarter -- I apologize, underran the RVO implied demand in the first quarter, last year, industry overran it. This D4 RIN carryforward can provide a temporary shock absorber to a RIN production deficit, but as the carryforward credits are used up, we expect normal dynamics to reset. Of course, RVO clarity should help normalize the market as well, which the whole industry looks forward to. And at Montana Renewables, we also expect to be adding more SAF just as global mandates step up in early 2026. In other words, it's tough out there right now, but underlying market fundamentals provide a lot of reasons for optimism as we look forward. Next, let's turn to slide six and discuss MaxSAF, or maybe more specifically, a major improvement along the road to our ultimate MaxSAF journey, which we're calling MaxSAF 150. As we know, SAF is a central component of MRL strategy. We were among the early entrants in this space, launching SAF to market in late 2023 with Shell as our offtake partner. And while renewable diesel margins have been challenging since the RVO misstep, SAF margins have remained stable and attractive. This early market continues to show great promise, with the introduction of global mandates complementing an already growing base of voluntary demands. Our grand project calls for 300 million gallons of SAF capacity to be reached, and there's no change to that. We previously spoke about our expectation to bring 150 million of those gallons online in late 2026 for a capital cost of $150 million to $250 million. Our operations team has rapidly advanced our understanding of the potential of our assets and our SAF production technology. As a result, our project expectations, which were already promising, have improved markedly. Rather than needing to wait on our Gulf Coast reactor to be shipped across the country and stood up with other new build assets, we can enhance our existing MRL reactor and some other supporting assets already in Montana to bring on 120 million to 150 million gallons of SAF in early 2026 for $20 million to $30 million of capital. Given this is predominantly catalyst work and configuration of existing assets, the smaller capital would primarily be back after 2025 and early 2026. This improvement will increase SAF yields from its current 2,000 barrels a day to an 8,000 to 10,000 barrel a day range, and we also expect a minor increase in total renewable throughput. After we improve our yields through this first step in our sequential project, we're optimistic that our experience will continue to allow us to manage through the remaining project more quickly and economically as well. But for now, we're focused on achieving the maximum amount of SAF for the minimum amount of capital as quickly as possible, and our marketing team continues to be encouraged by the demand we're seeing for these increased volumes. Increased sales volumes take on three different timelines. First, we currently have our 30 million gallons of annual capacity being sold daily. Next, we demonstrate a 50 million gallon SAF capacity, and our ops team is gaining experience achieving that rateably. With the combination of this rateable production and the winter rail constraints behind us, we expect to start selling 50 million gallons of SAF this summer. And third, with the breakthrough around MaxSAF 150, we'll also be marketing that additional material soon, which could be sold directly or tied to a monetization event as discussed in the past. We remain flexible in our approach and encouraged by the market response. In fact, as the SAF market evolves, we've even been approached about SAF fee credits. With this approach, the Tier 1 and Tier 3 credits we generate are marketed to end users through a book-and-claim approach, and a SAF supplier retains the other environmental credits like the RIN and the PTC, just like through our existing renewable diesel and SAF contracts. The benefit of this, in a world of global mandates, is it allows suppliers to separate the SAF credit from the physical transaction to minimize logistics costs for end customers. It's not surprising that the resulting economic to Montana renewables with the book-and-claim approach provide the same premium expectation of $1 to $2 a gallon premium relative to renewable diesel that we've discussed previously, and we continue to see that range in the market. With that, I'll turn the call over to David. David?