Earnings Labs

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 27, 2017

$10.37

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Michelle and I am your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to Cliffs Natural Resources 2017 First Quarter Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. The company reminds you that certain comments made on today's call will include predictive statements that are intended to be made as forward-looking within the Safe Harbor protections of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although the company believes that its forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Important factors that could cause results to differ materially are set forth in reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, and news releases filed with the SEC, which are available on the company's website. Today's conference call is also available and being broadcast at cliffsnaturalresources.com. At the conclusion of the call, it will be archived on the website and available for replay. The company will also discuss results excluding certain special items. Reconciliation for Regulation G purposes can be found in the earnings release, which was published this morning. At this time, I would like to introduce Tim Flanagan, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks Michelle, and thanks to everyone joining us on this morning's call. Before getting into the review of our first quarter results and outlook for the remainder of this year, I will pick up where I left off on our last call with an overview of our refinancing transactions completed during the quarter, which I would describe as both successful and transformative. The last time we spoke, Lourenco and I stressed the importance of a bulletproof balance sheet that can withstand the ever-present cyclicality in this business. In order to get there, we made de-risking the business our number one focus, not only just reducing our overall leverage, but extending maturities, lowering our interest expense and simplifying the capital structure. Less than three months later, I can happily and confidently say that all four of these goals were accomplished with our equity and unsecured debt issuances completed in Q1. Of the $1.2 billion we raised in February, every cent was put to work on the balance sheet. During the first quarter alone, total debt was reduced by $600 million, the 2020 and 2021 maturity tower reduced by more than half, our annualized interest expense burden was reduced by nearly $50 million, and our layers of secured debt were reduced from three to one. We're also very pleased with the timing of our transaction, which allowed us to minimize shareholder dilution and simultaneously lock-in a new – a low coupon, while issuing new unsecured bonds with a long-dated maturity. As we continue to navigate this ever-cyclical commodity environment, we can now do so with the extra comfort and flexibility that comes with this much lower debt level. That being said, our work in this regard is not done, and we'll always look for opportunities to embrace and take advantage of all…

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thank you, Tim, and thanks to everyone joining us on the call this morning. Many of you listening on the call have been here for the whole ride and observed the heavy-lifting that we have done during the last two-and-a-half years, cutting cost across the board, exiting all operations that weren't making us money, taking on and defeating all potential threats, and securing sales volumes by means of multi-year contracts with our clients, which will continue to be in place through the best part of the next decade. In a business environment where our margins for error were so small, our success on all of these things would have been impossible without the perfectly coordinated work of all my team members from the Executive Committee to each one of our USIO employees in Michigan and Minnesota, our entire Asia Pacific team in Australia, Beijing and Tokyo, and to those here at our headquarters in Cleveland. To each one of these Cliffs' employees across the entire company, thank you very much for embracing the strategy, for believing we could overcome all the challenges and for working together to make everything happen. Since joining Cliffs in August of 2014, I have been working very diligently to reduce our debt and to improve our balance sheet. The most visible part of this work has been a series of liability management exercises. Each transaction took advantage of what the market gave us and each transaction was done in preparation for the next one. As we've begun this year, we saw the opportunity in February to execute a big bank transaction, including new equity issuance, redemption of old bonds, retirement of other tranches and issuance of unsecured bonds. This was actually a complex series of transactions that was flawlessly executed within a 24-hour timeframe using…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instruction] Your first question comes from Lucas Pipes, FBR & Company. Your line is open. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Hey. Good morning, everybody.

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Morning.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Morning, Lucas. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Good job in, of course, navigating this market and cleaning up the balance sheet. And my first question is kind of longer term, especially as it relates to your earnings power. So, I think your stock is pricing in lower levels of iron ore prices. If I were to assume, let's say, $60 IODEX in 2018, I would still estimate about $600 million of EBITDA. Do you think that's the right ballpark? Is that reasonable or would you say maybe higher or lower than that? I would appreciate your thoughts.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Okay. Lucas, longer term earnings power of this company is great, because our core business sits in a market that's a lot more inelastic than any other market, the United States of America. On top of that, we have contracts in place with all the big clients that are performing well in the United States, ArcelorMittal and AK Steel mainly, and others that are working hard to get better like Algoma (35:23). These are multi-year contracts that are not going away anytime soon. Another interesting thing is that the fact that we had quarter one average price of $86 per ton and year-to-date IODEX at $83 per ton have already gave me my 2017 EBITDA here in the United States. I am done for 2017 only with these four months. What if the IODEX continues to be at, like today, $66 or $70 like the April average IODEX? We're going to be okay. We're going to make a lot of money, because our contracts work with yearly averages. So, the yearly average has already been pumped up by the actuals in Q1. People fail to realize that. They're looking at the results of Q1, even though we said so many times that we had carryover tons. Very few caught that in their models. You are probably – based on the Q1 forecast, probably the only one that really understood this thing. So – and unfortunately, your number for some strange reason was not part of the consensus, and that pretty much made me miss consensus. And we are all gauged against consensus. So, anyway, you're right, but your number was not part of the consensus. But I hope you understand the formula is based on yearly averages. So, here in United States, no matter what happens from now on, I…

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks for recognizing that. I know how these guys think. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: A quick second question. There have been some rumblings about the revival of Essar Steel Minnesota maybe under new ownership. Do you have any thoughts on that and where do you think that asset fits in domestically at this time? Thank you.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Well, the process is still ongoing. So, I can't comment too much. What happened yesterday was an auction that we elected not to show up for. Our offer was made. It was public, so I can talk about, was $75 million. And then, I increased that offer to $100 million and that's also public information, so I can talk about. And our offer was all cash, just writing a check. And my offer would also make all the contractors and vendors 50% hold on their money as soon as the process – the bankruptcy process would end. So, they would recover $0.50 on each $1 that were owned (41:00) at that point. The squatters that are there for – at this point for 10 years would get zip, would get a goose egg, as well as all the other parties that helped them to continue to be there. I would only do this 50% for the vendors and contractors. It's cash. Yes, we are competing against our plan (41:26) from a very powerful trading house in London, which I forgot the name. A company that was just formed Chewbacca Steel and, Chewbacca? No. Chippewa? Chippewa (41:39) sounds so bad in Portuguese. It sounds almost like a bad word. So, I tried to say Chewbacca Steel (41:51), and a bunch of other well-known unknown people. So, let's see how this thing will go. The game is ongoing. My offer is cash. The other is Monopoly money or (42:05). So, we'll see how it goes. Lucas N. Pipes - FBR Capital Markets & Co.: Well, that's a helpful update and appreciate your color, and best of luck with everything. Thank you.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matthew Fields from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Hey, Lourenco. Hey, everybody. Congratulations on the great balance sheet work you did in the quarter.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks Matt.

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks Matt.

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

I think Tim might have mentioned something about this, but I may have missed it or would like some more detail, a little bit on the difference between maybe realized price that you state and the sort of overall revenue per ton and the cash cost of freight in there. Can you sort of flush that out and why the discrepancy in 1Q and sort of how that's expected to normalize over the rest of the year?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Yes, sir. I will have Tim answering that. Please, Tim.

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Yeah. I think if you look at a couple things, while iron ore prices were up year-over-year and certainly we realized – we saw that realization come down, the biggest piece of that is that price adjustment, the discounts that we referred to. But then you also have the timing impact, and timing's really two pieces. One, when the product gets discharged at the port and the way the price is moving at quarter-end into the quarter, so we had an impact there, as well as lag pricing. So, certain of our Australian customers are on a one month – or a full quarter and one month lag, and certainly that impacted us, as the 2017 lag pricing was about $22 lower than that $86 IODEX for the quarter average. Freight, Fe content and all the other adjustments to the IODEX relatively flat year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter. Not much of a big difference there.

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay. So, maybe the biggest content – the discrepancy is just that lag and APAC pricing?

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

The lag and the discounts that we're seeing. I think second quarter discounts priced out 20%.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Yeah. Look, the discounts between the ore we produce, that's below 62%, as you know, both lump and fines.

Timothy K. Flanagan - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Right.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

And the IODEX 62% will depend on how much BHP and Fortescue and Roy Hill will continue to overproduce. What do I expect? I expect that BHP will get religion one way or another. Fortescue, they don't have a lot of options, because that's the ore they have. They can always control the output, but I don't see that coming. And Roy Hill, well, it's just a time bomb at this point. One day, it – I can hear it tick, tick, ticking, but it hasn't exploded yet. So, I don't give much credence to what they are doing or not doing. So, short-term, same thing. Mid-term, it will improve, that's for sure. As Vale picks up and Rio Tinto picks up with better ores and blending continues to improve and put into use the ore that sits on the port, this thing will continue to be reduced. I just don't want to see the discount reduced for the wrong reason, because IODEX goes down, then the discounts go down. That's bad. I would rather have the IODEX stay where it is than going up and the discounts increase. We make more money, and we make money in dollars. We don't make money in percentages, so.

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Thanks. And then, given the already tight sheet market in U.S. Steel and maybe compounded or caused by U.S. Steel's – the company's decision to take a bunch of assets down for the year and the next few years, have you seen an increase in activity for your other blast furnace customers for sort of maybe more entry into the spot market to try to fill that gap?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Well, you know well that we don't have any business with U.S. Steel. So, we don't sell pellets to U.S. Steel. But we sell pellets to the U.S. Steel competitors. From where I sit here, it's clear to me that our clients are benefiting from the current domestic scenario here, and they are benefiting from the retraction, let's call that, retraction of U.S. Steel from the domestic market of steel. Where are they going to sell the pellets, if that is part of your question? I have no idea, because the clients are taking. I will sell to them in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and then 2023, one contract of one client will end. And then, 2024, a second contract and then – and it's too far away. By that time, I'll be very old. So, that's the status. So, we're good. Our clients are good, and we are here to support them for more. They should go take business from U.S. Steel. That's probably what they are doing as we speak. So, anyway, I'm happy with that. What else can I tell you?

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

Okay, good. And then, I just kind of wanted to follow-up on Lucas' question about the other Minnesota assets. And I think Chippewa might have been the word you were searching for, Chippewa Capital Partners, put in a bid, and we read it was pretty significant. We read $350 million plus another $1 billion pledge to finish the plant, which seems kind of a lot. And this is the group that's related to the – I think the group that took over the Magnetation assets as well. So, given sort of where we are, sort of a tight pellet market in the U.S., can you comment on what do you think this guy's strategy is?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Look, if you combine a blind with a handicapped, you are not going to make for an MMA fighter, right. You are going to make for a handicapped and blind men. So, you are combining Magnetation with all their success in the past with Essar Minnesota that has also been extremely successful. So, you combine those two stories of success, you pair with someone that offer $250 million of equity and then increase to $350 million that said that they are going to put a DRI facility for 3 million tons of pellets and they will start up in three years. Their 3 million tons mega model for that type of size does not exist yet, and they are going to start talking to you, that sounds like a great combination of everything. And the other thing is where is the money. Although they (49:20) have an underwritten letter of commitment from a big financial institution like Goldman Sachs, like Bank of America or JPMorgan or Morgan Stanley or something like that or they have come with Bank of Timbuktu. So, these are things that we all see in court. That's the maximum amount of color that I can give to you. I just feel bad for the Minnesota people that – you fool me once, shame on me. But fool me twice, blame me (49:53). That's my assessment of the situation with Chewbacca Steel (49:56). That's the word I'd use.

Matthew Fields - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open

All right. Thanks very much, Lourenco.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

All right. Nice talking to you, Matt.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Novid Rassouli from Cowen & Company. Your line is open. Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hey, guys. Novid Rassouli at Cowen. Thanks for taking my questions. Lourenco, you mentioned that you do not think Chinese HRC spreads matter at this point. What global spreads do you think are more important to focus on now and what is your view of the U.S. HRC prices throughout the remainder of 2017?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Well, I said that it doesn't matter because at this point in time, we have trade case in place. And in order to increase the spread, you have to do two things. One is China needs to keep pushing prices down. The other one is having United States pushing prices up. And the only third option is both come together. So, if U.S. Iron Ore prices continue to go up based on the absence or the reduction or the enforcement of the trade laws and the absence of imported steel here in this country, it is kind of expected, right, at this point. China coming down, I don't see how come, because they are now entering the second five-year for President Xi Jinping. Usually, in China, this is the time when things get really done. He knows that he needs to continue to fuel the beast over there. So, consumption in China seems to be healthy and continue to grow. And that is a clear message coming from CISA, from Mr. Li Xinchuang, and he is repeating that since 2015, we are not growing indefinitely, we are reducing, we are being more focused, we are controlling pollution. They are going to have to shut down capacity and they will need steel. So, these massive amounts of Chinese steel available to do all kinds of stuff go to Vietnam and then come to the United States or go to other Asian countries and that will displace material that come to the United States. That's all been taken care of already with the antidumping and countervailing against hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized and plate. And on top of that, there is a self-initiated Section 232 trade case that was initiated by Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. Just to give an idea, Mr. Wilbur Ross was the guy that put together Bethlehem Steel and LTV Steel just after the debacle of the two companies around 2001, 2002. And that was a result of trade case. So, Wilbur Ross knows trade cases very well. So, I don't know what you're concerned about. Can you be a little more specific on your views? Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yeah, I...

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

So, then I could probably answer better. Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Yeah. No, Lourenco, I was just curious – I actually agree with you on the Chinese spreads. But I'm curious what part of the world now you think is more important to be focused on when thinking about HRC prices in the U.S. and what's a reasonable spread, essentially.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Okay. I'm glad we agree. So, now to the second one. The part of the world that you should be focused on at this point is the United States of America, because our economy is growing. All sectors are in good shape. Some sectors are surprisingly strong at this point like agriculture, like non-residential construction. Automotive has not come down. Actually, we are seeing automotive turning back up. And we have a limited amount of domestically generated steel available for all these uses. And that's why I'm trying to guide you, Novid, that our nominations (54:21) are good, our clients are in good shape. If there is any perceived weaknesses in the marketplace, certainly, they are not related to any of our clients. So, we should be in great shape. Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Great.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

But then, our price would be a lot higher than the international price (54:41). Yes, of course. This is our market. This is how it works. It has been like that – I'm in this business for 37 years. It has been like that during the last 30 years that I have been paying attention to that, because the first seven, I was still learning. Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Got it.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

I'm still learning as of today, but I was not dealing with international trade. So, our prices are higher, have always been. Take a look when that was different, when the gap was different from the gap that we have today. Another point to consider, Novid, let's assume just for you and me like two guys talking about. Like you said, I'm curious. I like when an analyst starts like that the question – I'm curious. You should be curious. So, let me try to placate your curiosity. Let's assume that we have a war in the Korean Peninsula, and then we have a big disruption on the flow of iron ore to China, the flow of iron ore to Japan, the flow of iron ore to South Korea, the flow of products out of the Asia Pacific area. That's a possibility at this point. Finally, the (56:03) is right there, watching that guy with the crazy hair just to see what he's going to do. So, there is a real possibility of war. Nobody is baking in that. I'm not, you are not, nobody is, but you can't deny that. So, I don't see a negative scenario, no matter how you skin the cat, no matter how much the shorts (56:28) want you to write a report to support (56:31). Another point, I have been showing loud and clear that if bond (56:41) prices are up, we take advantage. If bond (56:43) prices are down, we take advantage. If stock prices are up, we take advantage. If stock prices are low, I take advantage. So, I spent this half an hour after the prepared remarks of this call only with one purpose, to try to share my views with you. If you're going to take, great. If you don't take, great. (57:04). But we are going to be okay no matter what. What else can I do for you, Novid? Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: Just one more, Lourenco. Thanks. On entering the DR-grade pellet market in a more substantial form, I just wanted to see if you're able to divulge some of the options that you might be weighing, and then maybe just a potential timeline of when you might be targeting moving into that market in a more substantial way. Thanks Lourenco.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Novid, the move that we will define – a change in direction for Cliffs will be when we decide on a site to put our first DRI production facility. We have already proved ourselves as a capable producer of DR-grade pellets. We have already proved ourselves as able to deliver high-quality pellets to the ones that produce DRI as we speak. Now, it's our turn to have our own facility to produce our own DRI. Our first facility will be 1.5 million tons of DRI/HBI per year, and that will demand around 2 million tons of our own pellets that we already have and can produce, so we know where we're going to get. So, the next visible step will be the definition of which site we are going to build our DR-grade pellets. Depending on the outcome of the situation in Minnesota, it can be Minnesota. I still believe that it will be Minnesota, but can be somewhere else. And we have a couple of other options that we are actually extremely developed in moving in that direction. All these things considered, we are not going to spend any meaningful capital this year, because time is passing and we are already pretty much in May, and we are not going to break ground just before snow comes to the ground. So, I don't see how we are going to spend money on that project in 2017. In other words, 2017 will be fully dedicated to continue to pay down debt, and we are going to end 2017 substantially below $1 billion in debt, more or less like 1 time EBITDA leverage. That's our goal for this year. And then, next year, we're going to start spending on our first DRI facility. We will continue to be very, very disciplined, and paying down debt continues to be our priority for 2017. And we're going enter 2018 with – we are already with an extremely good balance sheet. And coming January 1, 2018, we are going to be even better. Today is a little more than 1 time EBITDA, close to 2 times EBITDA. We'll be below 1 time or around 1 time coming January 1, 2018. Is that okay? Novid Rassouli - Cowen & Co. LLC: That's perfect. Thanks Lourenco. Appreciate it.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And your final question today will come from Nick Jarmoszuk from Stifel. Your line is open. Nicholas Jarmoszuk - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Good morning, Lourenco. I wanted to ask you a little more on the...

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Hi, Nick. Good morning. Good morning. Nicholas Jarmoszuk - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Good morning. A little more on the DRI facility. I know previously you talked about using someone else's balance sheet. Is this something now that Cliffs would look to do on its own?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Yes. Right now, that's the only change actually. We've got the only change that we made to our plans. Until the big bank transaction in February of this year, I was considering the – in order to be able to move forward, I was considering using somebody else's money. So, that need is no longer present. Like I said, we are already in a great balance sheet situation. And by the end of the year, we'll be in a better – even better position to do on our own. So, now, I prefer to decide things alone here with me – myself and my management team and my board, instead of sharing decision-making with a financial partner. That's not always will be totally aligned with Cliffs. So, we are going to do on our own. That's a perfect conclusion. But it will be next year, not this year. Nicholas Jarmoszuk - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. So, with the $450 million of cash flow, how should we think about what potential debt repayments could be versus cash build to pre-fund the DRI plant? And then, what's the CapEx associated with it?

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

With the DRI facility? Nicholas Jarmoszuk - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Yeah.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

We don't have a final number yet. We do not. But we are discussing with both suppliers of the technology. They both understand that that will be the first one of a series of potential DRI facilities in United States. We are going to show the way, and that will be very positive for Cliffs, but it will also be very positive for either one of the suppliers of the technology that will work with us. So, we are still in negotiation time. So, we can't talk about numbers yet. Nicholas Jarmoszuk - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. That's all I have. Thank you.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we have no further questions at this time. I turn the call back to our presenters.

C. Lourenco Goncalves - Cliffs Natural Resources, Inc.

Management

Thank you very much. We will be here in three months, and you should expect Q2 to be a very strong quarter in terms of pellet price realization, in terms of EBITDA, in terms of net income. Our EBITDA in Q2 will be above $200 million. That's what we expect. Thank you very much. I'll see you soon. Bye.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.