Ian M. Cook - Colgate-Palmolive Co.
Management
Yeah, I mean, that's a very deep and complex question, Dara. If you look at that first quarter, much has been said about weather. Much has been said about tax rebate checks and other external factors. From what we can see, with some retailers the tax rebate checks did seem to have an impact. And that is clearly behind us and hopefully will not reoccur next year, but we did indeed see volume decline in several categories and obviously, that is a concern going forward. As I said, we saw it pick up a little bit in March, continued to be better in April, although not at the March rate. We've been doing some custom work around the world, particularly in the toothpaste market to understand consumers' buying behavior and we're not seeing people stopping brushing their teeth. I guess, some of the data that is emerging, in some markets you have consumers who buy multiple packs of the product and store them in their bathroom and when times are uncertain work down their own bathroom inventory before they go back to buy at retail. Now, depending on the marketplace, the on average number of tubes in the home is around two, and with the purchase cycle you have on toothpaste that gives you confidence they're not stopping brushing. They're going to come back to reuse the product. So we think, turning back to the U.S., that it's a combination of the external factors, which are behind us, and the consumer in an uncertain time just working down that home inventory. But we're not seeing their brushing behavior change which, I think, is an important thing. And as John said, from a share point of view, the advertising and promotional activity we have had in the U.S. is producing results in terms of our market share growth as we came through the quarter. So we think that part of the go-to market is robust. It is our estimation that the consumer will come back to the marketplace because their fundamental behaviors have not changed. And I would say trial-oriented promotion is still important in terms of our innovation flow and even our base business. So I think what one has to guard against, consumers are clearly prepared for the right value they perceive in a brand to pay a premium price. And I think and we have said this before, pure price promotion toothpaste volume does not accomplish that objective over the long-term. So it still comes back to innovation and support behind the brand and the innovation over the medium term.