Eric Palmer
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Sir, your line is open
Thanks, David and good morning everyone. In my remarks today, I will review Cigna’s 2017 results and provide our outlook for 2018. Key financial highlights for 2017 include consolidated revenue growth of 5% to $41.6 billion, consolidated earnings growth of 27% to $2.7 billion, earnings per share growth of 29% to $10.46 and continued strong free cash flow and $2.8 billion return to shareholders through share repurchase in 2017. These results reflect the underlying strength of our franchise and provide us with considerable momentum for continued growth in 2018. Regarding our segments, I will first comment on Global healthcare. 2017 premiums and fees grew 5% to $29 billion driven by strong customer growth and specialty contributions across all commercial market segments and as expected, this growth was partially offset by lower seniors enrolment. We ended 2017 with 15.9 million Global Medical customers, an organic increase of 710,000 lives which represents 5% growth over 2016. Full year earnings were $2.17 billion, reflecting growth in medical customers and specialty relationships, continued effective medical cost management and operating expense discipline. Turning to medical costs, we continued to deliver medical cost that reflect better health outcomes as a result of our deep engagement and collaboration with customers, clients and physicians. Our focus on personalization of care and the power of our differentiated speciality integration model. For our total U.S. Commercial book of business, full year medical cost trend for 2017 was better than the low-end of our previous guidance range of 3% to 4%. As David discussed, our commercial medical trend result once again reflects industry-leading performance and enabled our employer clients to make further investment in innovation, expand their workforce and grow their margins. The total commercial medical care ratio or MCR of 79.9% for full year 2017 reflects the continued effectiveness of our medical cost management capabilities as well as the impact of the health insurance tax suspension. This MCR also reflects better-than-expected medical costs in our U.S. individual business, which generated a small profit in 2017. The total government medical care ratio of 84.9% for full year 2017 reflects the impact of our innovative physician engagement model within Medicare advantage and is consistent with our expectations. Full year 2017 Global Healthcare earnings also included favorable net prior year reserve development of $112 million after-tax. The Global Healthcare operating expense ratio of 20.9% for full year 2017 reflects the impact of the health insurance tax suspension, business mix exchanges and continued effective expense management. Overall, we’ve had another strong year in Global Healthcare. Turning to our global supplemental benefits business. Our full year 2017 results reflect continued attractive growth and profitability as premium and fees grew to $3.7 billion an increase of 14% and full-year 2017 earnings grew 26% to $369 million, reflecting business growth, favourable point of experience and continued operating expense discipline. For Group Disability and Life, full year 2017 premiums and fees were $4.1 billion. Full year earnings in our Group business increased to $285 million, reflecting strong performance in both our Disability and Life businesses. Overall, as a result of the continued effective execution of our strategy, Cigna delivered strong revenue and earnings contribution from our Global healthcare, Global Supplemental Benefits and Group Disability & Life businesses in 2017. We also continued to generate strong free cash flow across our enterprise and maintain significant financial flexibility. Now I will discuss our outlook for 2018. As we continued to drive strong value for our customers and clients, we step into 2018 with momentum in each of our businesses. As a result, in 2017 we expect to deliver attractive financial growth by deepening our customer and client relationships, delivering on-going superior medical quality and cost outcomes and continuing to invest in innovative solutions to more effectively engage with our customers and healthcare professionals. For full-year 2018, we expect consolidated revenues to grow in the range of 7% to 8% over 2017 with continued growth across our targeted market segments. We expect full year 2018 consolidated adjusted income from operations to be 3.08 billion to 3.2 billion or $12.40 to $12.90 per share. This represents growth in the range of 19% to 23%. This outlook includes approximately $425 million of incremental after-tax earnings resulting from U.S. corporate tax reform. I would note that this incremental earnings estimate is net of $150 million after-tax and additional investment in our employees, communities and partners as well as our capabilities that enable us to better serve our customers and clients while accelerating long-term growth. For 2018, we project the consolidated adjusted tax rate in the range of 24% to 25%. Consistent with prior practice, our outlook excludes any contribution from future capital deployment as well as prior year claim [ph] development. Now putting our 2018 outlook and our 2017 actual result on a comparable basis, that is adjusting for the reserve development reported in our 2017 results, and excluding the impacts from tax reform, our outlook for earnings in 2018 reflects 4% to 9% growth over 2017, and our outlook for EPS growth is 7% to 12% before considering the impact of additional capital deployment. I will now discuss the components of our 2018 outlook starting with Global Healthcare. We expect full-year Global Healthcare earnings in the range of approximately $2.6 million to $2.68 million. This outlook reflects strength in our commercial employer business, driven by continued benefits from organic customer growth, specialty contributions and effective medical cost management as well as continued solid performance in our Medicare advantage business. Key assumptions reflected in our Global Healthcare earnings outlook for 2008 include the following; regarding total medical customers, we expect 2018 growth in the range of 300,000 to 500,000 customers, driven by continued strong customer and client retention and new growth in our commercial business. And approximately, 3% growth in Medicare advantage customers. Turning to medical costs. For our total U.S. Commercial Employer book of business, we now expect full-year 2018 medical cost trends to be in the range of 4% to 5%, with the increase over 2017 full year trend due to expected increases in utilization and pharmacy costs. For our total commercial book of business, we expect the 2018 medical care ratio to be in the range of 77.5% to 78.5% reflecting the impact from the health insurance tax in 2018. For our total Government book of business, we expect the 2018 Medical Care Ratio to be in the range of 84% to 85%. Regarding operating expenses, we expect our 2018 global healthcare operating expense ratio to be in the range of 22.5% to 23.5% reflecting the impact from the health insurance tax in 2018. Now moving to our Global Supplemental Benefits business, we expect full year 2018 earnings in the range of $380 million to $400 million, reflecting business growth and continued strong operational performance. And regarding the Group Disability and Life business, we expect full year 2018 earnings in the range of $330 million to $350 million driven by ongoing performance momentum in both our Disability and Life businesses. Lastly, regarding our remaining operations that is other operations and corporate, we expect the loss of $230 million for 2018. To all-in for full year 2008, we expect consolidated adjusted income from operations of $3.08 billion to $3.2 billion, or $12.40 to $12.90 per share. I would also remind you that our outlook continues to exclude the impact of prior year reserve development or any future capital deployment. Overall these expected results represent a competitively attractive outlook and underscore the strong performance of our diverse and differentiated portfolio of businesses. Now moving to our 2018 capital management position and outlook, overall, we continue to have excellent financial flexibility. Our subsidiaries remain well capitalized and are generating significant free cash flow to the parent with the strong return on capital in each of our business segments, while we maintain significant free cash and leverage capacity available at the parent company. Our capital deployment strategy and priorities remain, first, funding our businesses to support long-term growth, next, pursuing strategic M&A and lastly, after considering these first two items we would return capital to shareholders primarily through share repurchase. Regarding free cash flow, during 2017 we repurchased 15.7 million shares of common stock for $2.8 billion, and we ended the year with parent company cash of $1.2 billion including $250 million held for liquidity purposes. Considering sources and uses the parent company cash, we expect to have approximately $2.8 million available for capital deployment in 2018 including approximately $260 million we deployed to repurchase 1.2 million shares in January 2018. Our balance sheet and free cash flow outlook remains strong, benefiting from industry leading margins and returns on capital in our businesses and the high level of capital efficiency, particularly from our fee-based businesses. Now to recap. Our full-year 2017 consolidated results reflect the strength for our diversified portfolio of Global businesses and continued track record of effective execution of our focused strategy. The fundamentals of our business are strong, and we are confident in our ability to achieve our full-year 2018 earnings outlook. With that, we will turn it over to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.