Christopher Winfrey
Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open
Thanks, Tom. Turning to our results on Slide 5. Total residential and SMB customer relationships grew by 351,000 in the first quarter and by over 1 million relationships over the last 12 months. Including residential and SMB, Internet grew by 428,000 in the quarter. Video declined by 145,000, wireline voice declined by 99,000 and we added 176,000 higher ARPU mobile lines. 74% of our acquired residential customers were in Spectrum pricing and packaging at the end of the first quarter. Pricing and packaging migration transactions are slowing which together with the completion of the network upgrades last year, means that in 2019 we’re already seeing lower CPE spending, fewer service calls and meaningful term benefits. In residential Internet, we added a total of 398,000 customers versus 334,000 in the first quarter last year. The year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by a decline in churn as our product, billing, service and collection activities improved. Over the last 12 months, we’ve grown our total residential Internet customer base by 1.2 million customers or 5.1%. Over the last year, our residential video customers declined by 2%. Similar to Internet, we benefitted from a decline in total video churn year-over-year but that was offset by lower video gross additions. Despite some video loss, we expect to continue to grow our EBITDA and cash flow at healthy rates. As part of a bundle, video drives Internet sales and reduces churn and it remains an integral part of our business strategy for connectivity services even as it drives less standalone profit over time. We’re focused on the full profitability and returns to the customer or passing which includes video when it matters. We continue to add new services to our network and increase our revenue per passing and lower our cost per dollar revenue by adding significant value to as many customers as we can, connected to our fixed network. In wireline voice, we lost 120,000 residential customers in the quarter versus a loss of 54,000 last year driven by lower sell-in following our transition to selling mobile inside the bundle and continued fixed and mobile substitution in the market generally. Turning to mobile. As I mentioned, we added 176,000 mobile lines in the quarter which came from a healthy mix of both Unlimited and By the Gig lines. As of March 31, we now have 310,000 lines, so mobile is ramping nicely and the early results of this product launch remain promising. Over time, we not only expect Spectrum Mobile to become a meaningful driver of our connectivity sales and retention, we also expect it to be profitable on a standalone basis once it reaches scale. And we believe there will be opportunities to further improve the economics of our mobile business and offer unique connectivity services. Last month, we began including the fees and taxes associated with our Unlimited and By the Gig packages within our existing pricing rather than as an add-on making our mobile product even easier to sell and service. Our bring-your-own-device program is expanding on schedule and by the end of the second quarter, we expect BYOD to be launched across essentially all channels and the most popular devices. Over the last year we grew total residential customers by 861,000 or 3.3%. Residential revenue per customer relationship grew by 1% year-over-year given the lower rate of SPP migration and promotional campaign roll off and rate adjustments. And we did grow subs in wireline voice and video taxes in both revenue and expense as we did last quarter with no impact to EBITDA in the past or now. Those ARPU benefits were partially offset by a higher mix of the Internet-only customers and a higher mix of choice and stream within our video base. As Slide 6 shows, our cable customer growth combined with our ARPU growth resulted in year-over-year residential revenue growth of 4.2%. Keep in mind that our cable ARPU does not reflect any mobile revenue. Turning to commercial. Total SMB and enterprise revenue combined grew by 4.3% in the first quarter. SMB revenue grew by 5% faster than last quarter as the revenue effect from the repricing of our SMB products in Legacy TWC and Bright House has slowed. Sequentially, SMB ARPU was essentially flat and over time we expect our SMB revenue growth rate to converge with our SMB customer relationship growth rate. And we’ve grown SMB customer relationships by about 10% in the last year. Enterprise revenue was up by 3.4% and excluding cell backhaul and Navisite, enterprise grew by 6.1% with 11% PSU growth year-over-year. Our enterprise group is at an earlier stage of its own pricing and packaging similar to what we’ve done in our SMB and residential businesses over the last two years. The process of moving customers to more competitive pricing pressures enterprise ARPU in the near term, but ultimately the revenue growth will follow the unit growth as it’s beginning to do in SMB. First quarter advertising revenue declined by a little over 3% year-over-year due to less political revenue in the quarter. Mobile revenue totaled $140 million with $116 million of that revenue being EIP device revenue. So in total, consolidated first quarter revenue was up 5.1% year-over-year with cable revenue growth of 3.8% or 4.1% when excluding advertising. Moving to operating expenses on Slide 7. In the first quarter, total operating expenses grew by $387 million or 5.7% year-over-year. Excluding mobile, operating expenses increased by 2%. Programming increased 4.1% year-over-year as we had a small programming benefit in the first quarter. And as I mentioned last quarter, a mid-single digit growth rate is probably a good baseline for 2019 programming cost growth. Regulatory connectivity and produced content grew by 5% driven by the same voice and video tax and fee gross up in revenue, video CPE devices sold to customers partly offset by a year-over-year decline in content cost given fewer Lakers games in the first quarter of 2019 versus the first quarter of 2018. Cost to service customers declined by 1.7% year-over-year compared to 3.8% customer relationship growth. And even when excluding some bad debt improvement, cost to service customers were down slightly year-over-year. So we’re meaningfully lowering our per-relationship service cost which is core to our strategy. Whether through in-sourcing, training, business process and system changes, these are all a series of small improvements which together with our pricing and packaging promotion structure generates improvements which take time but ultimately drive momentum. Cable marketing expenses declined by 2% year-over-year and other cable expenses were up 4.8% driven by insurance and software costs. Mobile expenses totaled $260 million and were comprised of mobile device cost tied to the EIP device revenue, market launch costs and operating expenses to stand up and operate the business, including our own personnel and overhead costs and our portion of the JV with Comcast. Cable adjusted EBITDA grew by 7% in the first quarter. And when including the mobile EBITDA startup loss of $120 million, total adjusted EBITDA grew by 4.2%. As we look to 2019, annualizing our fourth quarter 2018 mobile EBITDA loss is a good starting place for estimating our 2019 mobile EBITDA losses subject to the same assumptions we laid out on the last call. Turning to net income on Slide 8. We generated $253 million of net income to Charter's shareholders in the first quarter versus $168 million last year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, lower depreciation and amortization expense and lower merger and restructuring charges and that’s partly offset by higher GAAP tax expense and non-cash write-down of a Legacy TWC investment and higher interest expense. Turning to Slide 9. Capital expenditures totaled just under $1.7 billion in the first quarter with our cable CapEx declining by about $600 million year-over-year that was driven by lower CPE with less SPP migration and as we finished all digital last quarter. We also had lower scalable infrastructure primarily driven by the completion of our DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade in the fourth quarter and lower support spending within cable. That was partly offset by higher spend on line extensions as we continue to build out and fulfill our merger conditions. And we spent $88 million on mobile-related CapEx this quarter which is mostly accounted for in support capital and was driven by retail footprint upgrades for mobile and software, some of which is related to our JV with Comcast. Annualizing our fourth quarter 2018 mobile CapEx figures remains a simple way to estimate our full year 2019 mobile CapEx. We expect mobile CapEx for the launch of our MVNO service will decline following the upgrade of our retail footprint. As a reminder, for the full year 2019, our internal plan calls for roughly $7 billion of total cable CapEx in 2019 despite the usual first quarter seasonality. If we find new high ROI projects during the course of the year or that accelerated spend on existing projects would drive faster growth, we would continue to do so. An example in mobile would be a clear payback on moving traffic onto our own network and while that’s probably not a 2019 event, it is something we’ll evaluate as our mobile network develops the capabilities Tom outlined. Slide 10 shows we generated $645 million of consolidated free cash flow this quarter, including about $290 million of investment in the launch of mobile. Excluding mobile, we generated $936 million of cable free cash flow, up nearly $1 billion versus last year’s first quarter. The year-over-year growth was driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and lower cable CapEx. And as expected, we had a negative change in cable working capital during the first quarter primarily due to a meaningful decline in our cable CapEx accruals and payables. Although I expect our full year change in cable working capital to be negative primarily because of Q1, as we move through the year the cable business should exhibit more typical quarterly working capital seasonality. And as we move to 2020, I would expect changes in our cable working capital to be neutral to beneficial to our full year free cash flow results. On the mobile side, we continue to add mobile customers, which drives handset-related working capital needs as we accelerate growth rates and we should expect to see that trend continue for the foreseeable future. On the balance sheet, we finished the quarter with $73.4 billion in debt principal. Our current run rate annualized cash interest including the impact of repaying $2 billion of TWC 8.25% notes on April 1st that is now $3.8 billion. As of the end of the first quarter, our net debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA was 4.43x. We intend to stay at or below the high end of our 4x to 4.5x leverage range and we include the upfront investment of mobile to be more conservative than looking at cable-only leverage and that cable-only leverage was 4.34x at the end of Q1 and it’s declining. We have strong visibility on EBITDA growth and accelerating cash flow growth, tax assets, long-dated maturities and attractive weighted average cost to debt and we naturally delever as much as a half churn per year absent buybacks. All of that suggest our current leverage is prudent and if we see a permanent increase in our refinancing costs, a change in business outlook or investment opportunities, we can reduce our total leverage quickly and efficiently. During the quarter, we also repurchased 2.9 million Charter shares and Charter Holdings common units totaling about $1 billion at an average price of $330 per share. And since September of 2016, we’ve repurchased 20% of Charter’s equity at an average price of $328 per share. So our operating model network capabilities now in the future and our balance sheet strategy all work together over long periods of time and we expect our results to reflect a growing infrastructure asset with a lot of ancillary products to use for and sell on top of our core connectivity services with good value and service to our customers to grow cash flow with tax advantaged levered equity returns. Operator, we’re now ready for Q&A.