Christopher Winfrey
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open
Thanks, Tom. Before covering our results, a few administrative items; first, I want to remind everyone that when I reference fourth quarter 2017 customer results, I'll be comparing them to the fourth quarter 2016 results that have been adjusted to exclude the seasonal program customer activity in the fourth quarter of 2016 at legacy Bright House. We've provided that year-over-year comparison on Slide 6 of today's investor presentation. Additionally, as we head into the second year for integration, the distinction between pure integration activities and the implementation of our operating model is blurry. So starting in the first quarter of 2018, we’ll no longer disclose transition expenses in our P&L or transition-related capital expenditures, although this cost will still occur for some time. Page 6 of today’s trending schedule provides a mapping of historical transition expense into our regular expense lines. So those would like to adjust models in advance in the first quarter reporting can do so now. That trending schedule also shows a line flip we’ll make in Q1, all in down sales and retention expense will move from cost to service customers to marketing where these call center activities are now managed. We haven’t reflected that change in the fourth quarter financials, but wanted to highlight the change before Q1. Finally, our fourth quarter 2017 results were modestly impacted by the third quarter storms in Texas and Florida. There was no negative impact to subscriber results or revenue in the fourth quarter and fourth quarter storm-related operating expenses and capital expenditures were immaterial under $10 million combined. Now, turning to our results. During the fourth quarter grew by 206,000 or 1 million customer relationships in the last year, with 3.4% growth at TWC, 3.9% at legacy Charter, and 5.4% at Bright House. Including residential and SMB, video grew by 15,000, internet by 300,000, and voice by 53,000. 49% of TWC and Bright House customers were in Spectrum pricing and packaging at the end of the year. Customer connects were up year-over-year in our new markets and as Slide 6 shows; we grew residential PSUs by 287,000 versus 213,000 last year. Over the last year, TWC residential video customers declined by 2.5%, pre-deal Charter declined by 1%, and legacy Bright House grew its video customer base by about 0.5%. Within the quarter, TWC residential video net adds were flat with continued growth in traditional expanded customers, offset by continued churn in migration from the lower base of limited basic customers. We also had growth in our stream offerings which is a lower price video product that doesn’t require equipment and is targeted at customers who don’t currently buy a video product from us today. We marketed that product more actively and widely across our footprint in the fourth quarter. Legacy Charter lost 10,000 residential video customers in the quarter versus a gain of 20,000 a year ago, driven by our integration focus on the larger acquired footprints. As Tom mentioned, getting to a national product and service standard also caused us to adjust the timing of product upgrades across legacy Charter for over two years. In the mean time, we’ve seen some additional competitor build out price and promotional offers advertised by competitors and we have less of a benefit this year from integration struggles at a key competitor. We also merger some legacy Charter markets into the legacy TWC service infrastructure as we created new regional operating areas. That puts certain legacy Charter areas into a pre-upgraded state with respect to service. Bright House gained 13,000 video customers versus a loss of 6,000 last year. In total, we added 2,000 residential video customers in the fourth quarter in addition to SMB growth. In residential internet, we added a total of 263,000 customers versus 303,000 last year. Over the last 12 months, we grew our total residential internet customer base by 1.2 million customers or 5.4%. The 5.1% growth at TWC is 5.6% growth of legacy Charter and 6.9% to Bright House. In voice, we grew residential customers by 22,000 in the fourth quarter versus 1,000 last year. The higher triple-play sales offset by higher churn of legacy passages at TWC. So subscribers’ results will continue to improve. We expect further success with a higher portion of the base in Spectrum as well as the launch of new products. But, as we said before, the progress will not be linear, particularly as we go through the positive and negative short-term effects of all-digital, new product launches and business integration with each of these often staged cross-markets. Over the last year, we grew total residential customers by 828,000 or 3.3%. ARPU growth remained muted at given modest price increases, continued standalone internet selling, higher selling and promotional rates, the migration activity of legacy TWC and Bright House with Spectrum pricing and packaging. There is also a mechanical ARPU hit from the changes to the legacy Bright House seasonal plan. Slide 7 shows our customer growth combined with our ARPU growth resulted in year-over-year residential revenue growth in the 4.0%. Total commercial revenue, SMB and enterprise combined, grew by 6% with SMB up 4.5% and enterprise up by 8.3%. Excluding cell backhaul and NaviSite, Enterprise grew by over 12%. Sales are up in both SMB and Enterprise with 32% higher SMB PSU net adds at TWC and Bright House in the fourth quarter versus last year. Our revenue growth in the TWC and Bright House markets hasn’t yet followed the unit growth and it won’t until we get through the transition to more competitive pricing of both our SMB and enterprise products. We expect that ARPU offset will continue through 2018, but the revenue growth will ultimately follow the unit growth. Fourth quarter advertising revenue declined by 17% year over year, driven by political in the prior year. Excluding political, advertising revenue grew close to 3% year-over-year, given higher year-over-year local, national and digital revenue. In total, fourth quarter revenue for the company was up 3.2% year-over-year and 4.2% when excluding advertising. Looking at total revenue growth excluding advertising at each of our legacy companies, TWC revenue grew by 3.9%, pre-deal Charter grew by 5.1%, driven by customer growth. And Bright House revenue grew by 4.2%. Moving to operating expense on slide 8, in the fourth quarter, total operating expense grew by $199 million or 3.1% year-over-year. Programming increased 10.8% year-over-year, driven by contractual rate increases and renewals, and a higher expanded customer base and mix, which accounted for roughly 3% of that programming cost growth. For the full year of 2018, we expect programming cost per video customer to grow at a slower rate in 2017. That reflects a significant amount of programming renewed in the last 15 to 18 months and that expected decline in growth rate applies whether or not you include the small investment we expect to make in exclusive original content which Tom mentioned. Cost to service customers declined by0.4% year-over-year driven by the benefits from the combination of three companies, productivity benefits from our operating model, partly offset by higher bad debt expense from higher customer acquisition levels and revenue. Marketing expenses also improved by 7.8% year-over-year due to the higher level of marketing and sales activity and other expenses were down 2.7% year-over-year driven by the elimination of duplicate cost. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter including transition costs – sorry excluding transition cost in both periods, adjusted EBITDA grew by 1.8%. There is still lot of moving parts and we won’t pass of opportunities to grow but the fourth quarter probably reflects the low points of our EBITDA growth rate for cable, which should also benefit from some political advertising later in the year. Turning to net income on slide 9, we generated $9.6 billion of net income attributable to Charter shareholders in the fourth quarter. $9.3 billion of that is related to a non-cash tax benefit given the reduction in our deferred tax liability as a result of tax reforms. Much of that deferred tax liability was put on the balance sheet as part of purchase accounting related to our transactions. We generated $454 million of net income in the fourth quarter of last year due to a gain from the remeasurement of our pension liability. So leaving aside the pension gain last year, the tax gain this year, adjusted EBITDA was higher, severance-related expenses were lower and we’ve recognized a $101 million benefit in this fourth quarter from a remeasurement of our liability from the Advance/Newhouse tax receivables agreement also due to tax reform. Those benefits were partly offset by higher depreciation and amortization and higher interest expenses. Turning to Slide 10, capital expenditures totaled $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter including $202 million of transition spend. Excluding transition, fourth quarter CapEx increased by $682 million year-over-year, primarily driven by higher spending on CPE, scalable infrastructure and support. Our fourth quarter CapEx included purchases for 2018 activity including significant CPE inventory purchases from the much larger all-digital activity this year and for DOCSIS 3.1 and scalable infrastructure. For both all-digital and 3.1, there was a significant operating and procurement benefit, stage inventory and equipment in 2017 for launches in 2018. Excluding the impact of transition in any “pull-forward spends” our fourth quarter CapEx was still higher year-over-year with higher CPE and given higher connect volumes, a higher set-top box placement rate per connect and the migration of legacy customers over to Spectrum for frequently provided new equipment. We also had all-digital spend, which excluding the inventory staging I mentioned totaled about $70 million in the fourth quarter. We also spent more in the support categories on vehicles, tools and test equipment, software development and facility spending in each case some to in-sourcing, some related to integration. As we look to 2018, our cable capital expenditures should be driven by many of the same factors as last year including customer growth, spectrum migration, all-digital, and in-sourcing and integration. In total, we expect cable capital intensity or capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue to be a bit lower than 2017. Next year, 2019 that is, should deliver a meaningful decline in capital intensity and dollars. Continued revenue growth improvements remains the best path for that efficiency that all-digital will be complete, we’ll be on the back half of our integration and the bulk of Spectrum packaging and DOCSIS 3.1 upgrade spending will have occurred already in 2017 and 2018. And even with video unit growth, the dollars of video CPE should also dramatically drop with a fully deployed base of modern two-way set-top boxes with the DOCSIS modem inside. Slide 11 shows, we generated about $1.2 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter versus $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter of last year and that decline was largely driven by the higher CapEx. We finished the quarter with $69 billion in debt principals and our runrate annualized cash interest expense at December 31 was approximately $3.7 billion, whereas our P&L interest expense in the quarter suggests a $3.4 billion annual run rate. That difference is due to purchase accounting. As of the end of the fourth quarter, our net debt to last 12-months adjusted EBITDA was 4.47 times, at the high-end of our target leverage range of 4 to 4.5 times. 2017 was a busy year of financings for us. We executed over $26 billion of debt transactions, about $17 billion for refinancing and the balance partly funding our share repurchase. Our refinancings extended the weighted average life of our debt to 11.5 years from the 1.1 at the end of last year and today, over 85% of our debt matures after 2020. So a very attractive maturity profile. We also upsized our revolver by $1 billion to enable more strategic flexibility including around buybacks and we did all that without raising the weighted average cost of our debt, which today stands at 5.4% as it did a year ago. During the fourth quarter, we’ve repurchased 13.5 million shares in Charter Holdings common units totaling $4.7 billion at an average price of $347 per share. For all of 2017, we bought back $13.2 billion, also at an average price of $347 per share. The Slide 11 shows over a 16 month period, we spent $14.8 billion on repurchases reflecting 14% of the company’s fully diluted equity. The raising of our leverage by about a half turn over the last year to the high-end of our target range reflects the confidence we have in our operating model and what we knew would drive complexity in our operating statistics throughout 2017. We are not changing our target leverage range of 4 to 4.5 times despite the material positive cash flow impacts from tax reform which I’ll cover in a moment. The fact that we are currently at the high end of that leverage range versus a half turn increase in 2017 mathematically means our 2018 buybacks will be less than 2017. Some other factors also play a role including the launch of our local products with working capital effects in consumer devices and I don’t expect that we can achieve the same level of working capital improvement for cable in 2018 given the effects of the 2017 CapEx pull-forward on 2018 working capital and our expectation for lower capital purchases in late 2018 with the completion of all-digital and other large integration projects which hasn’t impact to the 2018 working capital. So no guidance on buybacks other than, we like what we did when we did in 2017, 2018 will be less and we’ll remain opportunistic to preserve flexibility to create shareholder value without getting trapped by artificial targets. Turning to taxes on Slide 13. At Charter, we expect to see significant cash tax savings over the long-term from tax reform. This tax savings and the FCC action to remove the Title II framework will support the significant commitments that Tom made on Charter’s behalf at the White House last year, and the extension of those commitments today. The eminent passing of the tax legislation in December was already a factor in the fourth quarter capital investment acceleration I mentioned previously, specifically around the benefits of the fourth quarter 2017 bonus depreciation. Anticipating greater regulatory certainty was a key factor in accelerating our DOCSIS 3.1 deployment including Spectrum GIG and increasing minimum internet speeds in a number of markets for Spectrum customers. Lower taxes and higher regulatory certainty also create better incentives for new construction, and more rural broadband deployment, which will utilize our deep fiber and anticipated wireless capabilities. We don’t expect the tax build from and that use of our existing NOLs and in the time scope of our current business plan; we do not expect material limitations on our ability to deduct interest for tax purposes if ever. We also don’t currently expect to be a material cash income tax payer until 2021 at the earliest and that’s two years later than what we previously expected. Given the lower Federal Tax rate, and lower income from bonus depreciation, we estimate the total present value of our tax assets reflecting a later NOL utilization against a lower rate that’s declined from just over $5 billion to about $3.5 billion. That decline is offset by the much larger value associated with net present value of tax reform which drives higher free cash flow in perpetuity. Before moving to Q&A, I wanted to provide a financial framework for the launch of our Spectrum Wireless Services later this year. As Tom mentioned, we believe that our entry into wireless can further accelerate customer growth and drive penetration. The more customer growth we generate, the more incremental revenue we’ll generate from wireless and cable. Much of that revenue in the beginning will be device contract revenue which is fully recognized on the contract date and similarly, as cost of goods sold under EIP accounting, with the actual customer payments received over a longer period. As within the subscription business through upfront launch and acquisition activity which creates OpEx and CapEx which exceed the gross margin benefits in the short-term. The more wireless customer growth we generate early on, the more EBITDA and cash flow drag we experienced in the early day. Over time, we expect our Wireless service to generate positive EBITDA on a standalone basis with broader growth benefits to our core cable services. Our wireless business will eventually be fully integrated; it’s just another cable product in the bundle from a marketing care, billing and service perspective. So no different than internet of voice today and it will not be a separate P&L or segment as such. Through the launch phase however, we will be able to isolate certain key items to create transparency around cable performance. Those items, not necessarily with line-by-line disclosure will include, service revenue, which could be messy with bundle allocation effects of pricing and any subsidies. The device revenue and related cost of goods sold, the MVNO costs, or selling cost and any direct CapEx. We should be able to isolate the working capital impacts from the timing of cash flow for device cost and related subscriber cadence. We will provide additional detail from the wireless business as we move through the year and as the business scales, but our current goal is to maintain our target leverage on a consolidated basis even through the launch phase. Operator, we are now ready for Q&A.