Arthur T. Minson
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Let me turn to the Q3 highlights, starting with customer relationships, where we performed very well. On the Residential side, we lost 18,000 customer relationships in Q3, and in Business Services, we added 16,000 customer relationships. So on a combined basis, we came close to breakeven, which again is the best result for a Q3 in 6 years. The Q3 Residential CR performance was driven by a 9% improvement in connects. We saw a nice improvement in our online and inbound sales channels combined with slightly lower churn. On the churn front, one of the good news items is the fact that the disconnect rate was down 3% in FiOS and U-verse areas. On an individual product basis, Residential video net declines of 184,000 were 122,000 better than last year. Admittedly, an easy comp given last year's programming disputes. Most of the improvement on a net basis came in triples, as a result of higher triple play connects and lower single play video disconnects. Broadband volume was very strong. Residential net adds of 92,000 were the best for a third quarter in several years, and total broadband net adds, including both the Residential and Business Services of 108,000, were the best for a third quarter in 5 years. The positive mix shift in residential HSD continued. Our 3 highest speed tiers now comprise 35% of our HSD customers, up from 28% a year ago. Our everyday low price $14.99 light HSD tier, which is designed for more price-sensitive customers, continued to be an effective tool to attract customers from DSL. In Q3, we reached our goal of gaining a net 500,000 DSL customers, 2 quarters ahead of schedule. The $14.99 offer continue to account for approximately 15% of new Internet connects in the third quarter, and now makes up approximately 5.5% of our HSD base. Phone posted its strongest third quarter in several years, mostly due to increased triple play sell-in, increased double to triple migrations and fewer triple plays dropping voice. In terms of overall subscriber performance in the quarter, September was by far the strongest subscriber month in the quarter, both in terms of absolute net adds and on a year-over-year basis. September's momentum has continued into the first part of Q4. Subscriber net adds in October were considerably better than last year and were in fact a good bit better than in 2012 as well. With that, let's move on to our Q3 financial results. Total revenue of $5.7 billion was up 3.6% year-over-year. Residential Services revenue grew $36 million or 0.8% year-over-year, driven by $1.52 increase in ARPU per CR. Broadband revenue growth was the key driver, with total revenue up close to 11% as a result of both the strong subscriber growth I mentioned earlier and ARPU growth of 7.2%. In Business Services, revenue increased $130 million or approximately 22% year-over-year in Q3. The big story here though is operating leverage, as over the last year, we have converted 75% of incremental Business Services revenue into segment adjusted OIBDA. Sales rep productivity continue to improve in Q3, and we continue to manage costs aggressively. As a result, segment adjusted OIBDA margin increased by approximately 300 basis points to 61%. Other operations revenue grew 11.5% in Q3. Media sales revenue, which as I noted at a recent investor conference has been running shy of our expectations and increased 9%, primarily due to growth in political advertising revenue, which was $26 million in the quarter versus $12 million in last year's Q3. Excluding political, ad revenue grew a little under 4%, with virtually all of that growth coming from local and regional. We expect ad revenue growth to accelerate in Q4 as political advertising peaks. Other revenue increased primarily due to affiliate fees from our Residential Services segment for carriage of the Dodgers RSN. As we had indicated on our last earnings call, we expected a modest sequential decline in adjusted OIBDA in Q3, consistent with the trend in prior years. But we managed to match Q2 performance of $2.05 billion, resulting in the best sequential adjusted OIBDA trend in 8 years. On year-over-year basis, adjusted OIBDA grew $49 million or 2.4%. Operating expenses were up $147 million or 4.2%, with total programming and content costs up $160 million or 9.6%. The biggest driver of the increase, as in Q2, was Dodgers costs. Programming cost per residential subscriber, including an intercompany charge for a market rate Dodgers deal, increased 11.1%. Sales and marketing grew $28 million or 5% due to higher headcount and compensation in both Residential and Business Services. Customer care costs grew by approximately $20 million or 10%, as we continue to invest in TWC Maxx and other initiatives to improve the overall customer experience. Excluding programming and content and investments in sales, marketing, tech ops and care, all other expenses declined approximately $25 million or 2%. Moving down the income statement. Adjusted diluted EPS was very strong at $1.86, up 10%. Adjusted net income was up close to 8%, highlighting the fact that with the suspension of our share repurchase program when we announced the Comcast transaction, share count reduction had a smaller impact on EPS growth in Q3. Free cash flow was $368 million for the quarter, a $72 million decrease from the third quarter of last year, primarily due to higher capital spending. We spent $1.1 billion in CapEx in Q3. During the quarter, we continued our aggressive investment in CPE as we continue to deploy new set tops, DTAs and modems in Maxx markets and accelerated the replacement of older less-reliable set tops across our footprint. It's notable that year-to-date, we've connected more than 5 million new CPE devices to our network. Scalable infrastructure increased more than 50% year-over-year as we deployed next-generation CMTS gear in Maxx markets. The digital conversion process is now complete in New York City and L.A. and Austin is next. All of these investments are designed to radically improve our customers' experience. We also continue to invest in the future growth of Business Services. We connected more than 16,000 buildings to our network in Q3, expanding our annual serviceable market opportunity by more than $250 million. We expect Q4 capital spending to be considerably lighter than in Q2 and Q3. Full year CapEx should come in at around $4 billion. On the balance sheet side, we had approximately $23.8 billion of net debt at the end of the quarter for a leverage ratio of approximately 3x. We will continue to delever between now and closing as a result of OIBDA growth and the suspension of our stock buyback program. As we previously noted, we plan to continue to pay our $3 annual dividend between signing and closing. In conclusion, considering this has the potential to be our last earnings call, I thought it would be helpful to give some overall context on how we are performing against the operating and financial plan we outlined back in January. As we came into the year, our main operating goals included revitalizing our residential performance and continuing our momentum in business services, and we have done just that. Residential subscriber trends are the best we've seen in years. Business Services are scaling nicely and political advertising has been strong. We continue to expect Q4 to be the highest growth of the year in terms of revenue, OIBDA and free cash flow, with both adjusted OIBDA and free cash flow to be in the zone we discussed on our last call and full rev -- full year revenue to be approximately $22.8 billion. Our operational and financial execution is a testament to the ongoing efforts of the entire team. As Rob has noted, when it is time to turn over the keys to Comcast, we are pleased that we will be handing over a much improved Time Warner Cable. With that, let me turn it back over to Tom for the Q&A portion of the call.