Irene M. Esteves
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thanks, Rob, and good morning, everyone. 2011 was another good year for Time Warner Cable. We grew full year revenue 4.3% as business services revenue grew almost 33%, and residential revenue increased 2.7% while advertising revenue was flat. And adjusted OIBDA grew 5.1%, reflecting our strong revenue growth and somewhat higher margin. The acquisitions of NaviSite, and some of the cable systems from NewWave in 2011 accounted for roughly 60 basis points of total revenue growth and about 40 basis points adjusted OIBDA growth for the year. Operating income increased 10.3% and free cash flow grew over 20% to $2.7 billion or $8.19 per diluted share. EPS increased over 36% to $4.97, exceeding what we projected at the beginning of the year. We returned nearly 120% of free cash flow to shareholders. In total, we returned $3.3 billion through paying cash dividends of $642 million and repurchasing $2.6 billion of our common stock. And as Glenn mentioned, we announced a 17% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.56 per share or $2.24 on an annualized basis and reloaded our share repurchase authorization to $4 billion today. Before we get into the presentation, let me point out that my comments on our 2012 outlook do not include Insight or the sales aided by AWS Spectrum by SpectrumCo, and we'll provide you with updates on these when those transactions close. Let's jump right into our financial results on the next slide. For the full year, total revenue improved 4.3% to $19.7 billion, with total ARPU per customer relationship growing 4.7%. Total fourth quarter revenue increased 4% year-over-year to $5 billion, with total ARPU per customer relationship increasing 4.2% to $115. Of our fourth quarter revenue growth of $192 million, $97 million came from organic residential services, $76 million from organic business services, $34 million from NaviSite and $13 million from NewWave, partially offset by $28 million revenue decline in advertising and other revenue combined. Moving on to Slide 6, we had another terrific year of business services. We targeted organic annual revenue growth in excess of 20% and over 30%, including NaviSite, and we handily achieved those goals with full year growth of 24% and 33%, respectively. For the fourth quarter, we had a record quarter in business services growth, which accounted for close to 60% of our overall revenue growth. NaviSite contributed about 1/3 of business services growth. Our revenue was up $111 million or 37%. Of the $76 million organic growth, HSD and voice comprised 75% of it. Overall, HSD revenue increased over 23%, driven by growth in shared and dedicated Internet access. Business voice revenue increased 50%, driven by subscriber growth, and wholesale transport revenue of $44 million increased almost 50% and was driven by growth in cell tower backhaul. At quarter end, we had an installed base of nearly 7,700 revenue-generating radios and a meaningful backlog under contract. We made significant investments in business services during 2011 and we expect to build on them further in 2012. As Glenn mentioned, we are focused on expanding our products and service offerings, growing our sales force, improving productivity, and increasing our serviceable footprint. We expect these investments to help us drive 2012 business services revenue growth in the 25% to 30% zone again. For residential services, let's start with revenue on Slide 7. Full year 2011 residential revenue grew 2.7%, including NewWave. Fourth quarter revenue grew 2.3% on an organic basis and was up 2.6% including NewWave. The overall year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter was driven by a combination of HSD and voice subscriber growth and improved ARPU per video and HSD subscriber, partially offset by video subscriber losses. HSD revenue growth was up a robust 8.6% for the fourth quarter, contributing $91 million of the fourth quarter growth. Residential voice grew 2.5% to contribute $12 million of growth, and video revenue was about flat. Switching to Slide 8. We continue to do a good job of getting and retaining customers during difficult economic times. This, coupled with our ongoing effort to move existing customers up the value chain in both video and HSD, continue to drive revenue growth. Flipping to Slide 9. Fourth quarter residential HSD revenue growth was driven by subscriber increases, as well as a 3.7% improvement in residential HSD ARPU. This is an acceleration from the third quarter year-over-year ARPU increase and the 11th consecutive quarter of residential HSD ARPU improvement. The ARPU improvement reflects the continued benefit from price increases and an improved HSD subscriber mix as we migrate subscribers to higher-priced tiers of service. In fact, at quarter end, Turbo and Wideband subscribers comprised nearly 19% of our residential HSD customer base, up from around 14.5% a year ago. Wideband subscribers alone increased 60% from the third quarter and increased tenfold from the fourth quarter a year ago. Moving on to Slide 10. Fourth quarter residential voice revenue improvement was driven by subscriber growth, offset a bit by 1% decrease in ARPU. We think we've learned something about the shape of the demand curve here. We're at higher prices compared to our peers and competitors, and are now improving the value proposition as well as improving our cost structure. We expect the net effect will be higher voice revenue and profit. And turning to Slide 11. The modest growth in fourth quarter residential video revenue reflects the 3.7% increase in ARPU, which more than offset the decline in video subscribers. The ARPU increase was driven by price increases, a more favorable video subscriber mix, increased equipment rentals and an increase in DVR revenue. These factors were partially offset by an $11 million decline in premium channel revenue. On the next slide, full year ad revenues of $880 million were flat with 2010, which was a significant accomplishment given the drop off in political advertising. During the fourth quarter, advertising revenues of $242 million decreased $27 million or 10% year-over-year, driven primarily by the decline in political advertising. Ad revenue was helped by new rep deals, where we sell the advertising for other video distributors, and strengthening in the automotive category. As we look forward, we expect that we'll be able to grow ad revenues in the double-digit range in 2012, helped by political spending in the second half of the year. Let's turn to Slide 13. Full year adjusted OIBDA increased 5.1% and our margin increased 30 basis points. Total operating income rose 10.3% and our operating income margin improved 110 basis points to 20.7%. Fourth quarter adjusted OIBDA grew 8.7% and our margin increased 160 basis points. The improvement reflects higher OpEx in the fourth quarter of 2010 from several items, including $15 million from the reclassification of certain amounts previously recorded as depreciation expense and a $12 million severance charge, which were offset by the loss of high-margin political advertising in Q4 of '11. Fourth quarter operating income rose 3.5% to over $1 billion. Our operating income margin contracted 10 basis points to 20.6%, primarily driven by a $60 million wireless noncash impairment, an increase in depreciation expense and a year-over-year increase in merchant-related and restructuring cost. The wireless write-down was related to our discontinuation of MB&O [ph] services on Clearwire and Sprint's networks as we prepare to offer services through our Verizon Wireless agency agreement. The fourth quarter operating expense, which included $26 million from NaviSite and $8 million from NewWave, grew 1.3% compared to last year. Employee costs were up 6.4%, driven by annual salary increases across all of our businesses and higher headcount in business services, including the addition of NaviSite employees. Business services employee cost increased over 38% while the rest of the company was around 3.5%. Programming expense increased 2.1% in aggregate and 5.6% on a per-subscriber basis. This increase was driven by contractual rate increases which were partially offset by the decline in video subscribers. Even with these increases, the video profit contribution per subscriber increased. We expect the increase in programming costs per sub will accelerate in 2012 to 8% or 9%. Voice costs were down 18% year-over-year in Q4, driven primarily by the benefits from in-sourcing our voice support functions that we've talked about for quite some time now. Residential voice costs per sub per month in Q4 were around $9. We don't expect this to change materially in 2012, since we're not planning to migrate large numbers of additional subs until 2013. During the fourth quarter, we continued to invest in new initiatives, including our wireless build-out and our new home monitoring product, IntelligentHome. In Q4, the combined net cost from these initiatives were approximately $20 million, flat with the fourth quarter of 2010. And full year net costs were around $70 million, which was in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year. In 2012, we plan to continue investing in WiFi and IntelligentHome and launch our L.A. RSN in the fourth quarter. Overall, we expect our 2012 net costs from new initiatives to be in the range of $100 million to $150 million. Due to the timing of the launch of the L.A. RSN, the lion's share of this is expected in the fourth quarter. Operating income growth moderated in the second half of 2011 as growth was impacted by the fourth quarter 2011 items that I just mentioned, and as we lacked a portion of last year's improvements in amortization expense. Looking forward to 2012, even with the investments behind our new initiatives, we still expect to generate high single-digit operating income growth for the full year. Turning to the next slide, full year diluted earnings per share of $4.97 increased nearly 37% from $3.64 in 2010. EPS included a number of items affecting comparability that, in aggregate, increased diluted EPS in 2011 and decreased it in 2010. These items are detailed in Note 1 of our press release. Excluding both the 2011 and 2010 items, EPS would have increased over 25%, from $3.72 in 2010 to $4.68 in 2011, which still exceeded the range that we provided at the beginning of 2011. Fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.75 increased over 60% from $1.09 in Q4 2010. Excluding the items affecting comparability in Note 1 of our earnings release, fourth quarter 2011 EPS would have increased 40%, to $1.39 from $0.99 in 2010. Looking forward, we expect that 2012 full year diluted EPS will be in the $5.25 to $5.50 range. Turning to capital spending on Slide 15. Our capital spend in the fourth quarter was $942 million, bringing our full year CapEx to $2.94 billion, consistent with our full year guidance and flat with 2010. Full year CapEx as a percent of revenue was 14.9%, down from 15.5% in 2010 as we continue to offset higher business services spending with lower residential capital. Full year business services capital expenditures were $493 million, a 4.9% increase from 2010, with about 56% of the CapEx attributable to the line extensions and expanding our cell tower backhaul footprint. Full year residential, advertising and other capital expenditures were 13.4% of revenue, down from 13.9% in 2010, due primarily to lower CPE, largely offset by higher support capital and scalable infrastructure. Looking forward to 2012 capital spend, we will aggressively invest in business services ahead of its revenue growth. Offsetting this will be lower capital intensity in residential services. However, we'll continue to support residential CapEx on projects that will help us to more rapidly deploy product enhancements and improve our customers' experience. Taking all of that into account, once again, we expect that overall capital intensity will continue to decline, with full year capital spending in the $2.9 billion to $3 billion range, consistent with the levels of the last 2 years. Moving on to free cash flow on Slide 16. The company generated a lot of cash in 2011. We delivered $8.19 per share. We continued to grow our free cash flow at double-digit rates. Given recent declines in interest rates, the present value of our projected pension obligations increased, and as a result, we made a $326 million contribution to our pension plans in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to $52 million in contributions in the prior year. And for the full year, we contributed $405 million in 2011 compared to $104 million in 2010. Free cash flow for the fourth quarter was $391 million compared to $665 million in the fourth quarter of 2010. The decline was driven by the higher pension contributions and CapEx, partially offset by increased operating income. For the full year 2011, free cash flow was over $2.7 billion, up 20% from 2010. Before we move on to our capital returns, let's flip to Slide 17 as a reminder that we expect cash taxes to increase in 2012 due to a step down of bonus depreciation from 100% to 50% in the economic stimulus legislation and reversal of bonus depreciation from prior years. Assuming flat CapEx in 2012, we expect that taxes will increase by approximately $700 million this year due to lower net stimulus benefits. Including the impact of bonus depreciation, we're expecting free cash flow to grow in the mid single-digits. Let's finish up with our capital return slide. We ended the quarter with net debt and preferred equity totaling $21.6 billion, a $1.2 billion increase from year end 2010. We finished 2011 with a leverage ratio of 2.98x our 12 months adjusted OIBDA. We remain committed to our solid investment grade rating, and I'll remind you that the rating agencies treat our Insight acquisition as closed for purposes of calculating our leverage ratio, though they don't do the same for the pending AWS Spectrum sale. So our pro forma leverage is higher. In addition, the rating agencies tend to treat certain non-balance sheet obligations as if they were debt. So you notice that we provided a more fully loaded leverage ratio in our trending schedules, which considers those obligations. They add a little more than 1/10 of a turn to our ratio. In 2011, we returned 119% of free cash flow or $3.3 billion in total to shareholders: $2.6 billion in share repurchases and $642 million in dividends. Since 2011 year end, through January 25, we have repurchased $96 million of additional shares. Since we launched the share repurchase program in November 2010, we've repurchased approximately 47 million shares, or roughly 13% of what was then outstanding, at an average price of $69 per share for a total of $3.2 billion. As we look forward to 2012, in the absence of a significant acquisition or other strategic event, we would again expect to return more than 100% of free cash flow through dividends and share repurchases. And finally, as Glenn discussed earlier, we announced this morning a 17% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.56 per share. That's $2.24 per share on an annualized basis which, at yesterday's closing stock price, represents a 3.2% dividend yield, and this puts us in the top 20% of companies in the S&P 500. We also topped up our share repurchase authorization to $4 billion today. All this is in keeping with our plans to both grow our businesses and manage our balance sheet prudently while still returning significant excess capital to shareholders. Thank you, and with that, I'll turn it over to Tom for the Q&A portion of the call.