Julian Evans
Analyst · B.Riley. Your line is open.
Yes, so. Hi, Matt, this is Julian. Look, I think when we look at agency RMBS in the past, we’ve looked at them versus swaps. Now that the swap curve has kind of gone away the question is, do you want to look at them versus SOFR or treasuries. I’d say on a nominal basis, we’re looking at them versus treasuries, we still run OAS to kind of see where mortgages are. I think those two are effective tools in terms of trying to figure out the valuation. In terms of spreads. I think, look, I think, we’ve all looked at spreads from a historical standpoint on a nominal basis. And if you take a look at them over the 5-year timeframe, they are very attractive from a historical standpoint. I think if you look at the average over the 5-year timeframe, it’s like 283 spread. And right now, we’re probably about 175 given the widening that we’ve had continuing over the last couple of days, it’s been as high as 200. In our mind, I think that chops around I think it’s going to chop around a little bit, given that volatility has comes and goes all the time, it seems as of late, and it can come from anywhere in terms of statements either by our own Fed or from other central banks globally at this point in time. And I think what you’re asking for is, when will you finally see some type of tightening that’s more continuous then what we have experienced so far. I think you need stability in rates. I think you need volatility to kind of stabilize, if not truly be able to maintain the lower levels and continue forward. I do think that you need the banks to feel comfortable coming back into the market to buy mortgages. I think a lot of people have bought mortgages, that the wider levels 175 to 200 in that particular range, I think you’ll find a lot of the indexers or investors we’ve had been on the sidelines, are kind of neutral to kind of overweight at this point in terms of mortgages. There is no doubt that they are attractive from a long-term, but over their short-term timeframe, if volatility continues to move the way it is, I think it’s going to be hard for them to tighten and stay there continuously. And I think it’s the reason why we continue to hold TBA shorts in the portfolio.