Patrick Pacious
Analyst · Goldman Sachs.
Yes. Sure, Lizzie, from our perspective, this is a cyclical business. I mean I've been at Choice for 20 years, and this is probably the third one of these we've been through. The green shoots you do look for is when does occupancy stop dropping. That then gives owners confidence when they set price. And so that's the kind of early indicators that we've seen where the cycle starts to turn, and that's -- in fact, what we're starting to see in our chain scales in our segments and our brands. And we're pretty excited with what we're actually seeing in the economy segment, which, again, is the segment that usually leads you out of one of these cyclical downturns. So we feel pretty good about sort of what we're seeing on that front. I'd say on the consumer front, this is -- that sort of question around this K-shaped recovery. I think it's missing the fact that you've got a ton of -- I mean, 75% of the people who work in this country work for a small and medium-sized business. And when we're seeing that surge in the SMB business in our hotels, it's because of the types of travelers that are -- the labor force is effectively shifting towards the types of travels that stay in our hotels, construction, utilities, medical staffing, which is traveling nurses and the like, there's a pretty significant tailwind that we see from a business travelers perspective. The other is what we talked about, which is our retirees and road trippers. And about 30% of our business today are those folks who are 60 years old and older. They're sitting on tremendous wealth in their homes. They're sitting on very attractive stock portfolios, and they've got discretionary income and the time to travel. So we are seeing that traveler on the road, and we expect to see more of them. The investments we're making in our loyalty programs that are going to kick off here on the first of January are really designed to drive more of that business. And we know that those are the folks who spend more in our hotels, they stay more often and they book direct, which is all a real positive from a unit economics within the hotels themselves. So we feel pretty good about how the setup is coming for 2026 and those core demographics, the road trippers and retirees and then those blue and gray collar workers, those are expected to be demand drivers, and those are the folks who are in our hotels today, and we would expect we'll get more of that share as we move forward.