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Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 2, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Church & Dwight Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I've been asked to remind you that, on this call, the company's management may make forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the company's financial objectives and forecasts. These statements are subject to risk and uncertainties and other factors that are described in the detail in the company's SEC filings. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Matt Farrell, Chief Executive Officer of Church & Dwight. Please go ahead, sir. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us, today. I'll provide some color on the quarter, and then turn the call over to Rick Dierker, our CFO. When Rick is finished, we'll have a Q&A session. So reported growth was 11.2%, which reflects strong organic growth and the Waterpik acquisition. We're very pleased with the organic sales growth of 3.2%. That was driven by 7.1% volume growth domestically. Our targeted investment spending has translated into share growth, as 7 out of our 11 power brands exceeded or met category growth. Both the International Consumer business and the Specialty Products business turned in really strong numbers. We're on track to achieve 8.5% full year earnings growth. Our International Consumer business exceeded our expectations with 6.2% organic growth. As you know, we continue to invest in our international business to sustain our long-term algorithm of 6% organic growth. Last year, we opened new offices in Singapore and Panama to support our export business. In August of this year, we established a new subsidiary in Germany to expand our European business. And over the last 12 months, we have been taking a hard look at Asia and the best approach…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Bill Chappell of SunTrust. Your line is open.

Stephanie Benjamin - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, Inc.

Analyst · SunTrust. Your line is open

Good morning. Actually, this is Stephanie on for Bill. My question is actually just looking for a little bit more color on the international business; definitely, outperformed and exceeded our expectations despite the tough comp. So maybe if you could just give some color on kind of which brands are doing better, or is it – what you're seeing there? And then, obviously, your comment on expanding more in Asia, just color there would be helpful. Thanks so much. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. We said on prior calls that our – the three big brands that generally drive the international business are STERIMAR, BATISTE and – I forgot the third one. FEMFRESH, yeah. STERIMAR, BATISTE and FEMFRESH. In addition to that, in North America, ARM & HAMMER has been growing really well for us, ARM & HAMMER laundry detergent, both in Canada and in Mexico. You know, as far as the business goes, the business is extremely healthy and we've had broad-based growth across virtually all of our countries in the third quarter. As I said before, our long-term algorithm is for the international business to grow 6% annually, and we're confident that we can deliver that. As far as my comments earlier about Asia, so Asia-Pacific is extremely attractive to us. It has a growing middle class. I mean, the countries we'd be most interested there would be Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand. And with a growing middle class using increasing consumption of personal care products, and our products are under-represented there, so we're looking at consolidating our resources in that area, making more investments in the future.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Thanks. Good morning, guys. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Good morning. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Good morning, Kevin.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

I'm sorry. I apologize if I missed it. Did you guys comment on the 50 basis points lower outlook on organic sales for the year? So, it was approximately 3% before; now, we're down to 2.5%. I know you had a little bit of hurt from the hurricane in the quarter, but fairly modest in the quarter, so even less – far less material for the year. Can you comment on that? Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. You're only the second question in, Kevin, so you didn't miss it. So, our categories in the first half of the year grew 1.5%. That's ticked down a bit in the third quarter; a little over 1% for our categories, so – and we expect the same for Q4, and I think that's reflected in our full year call, up 2.5%. The other piece of that is international. International has had big growth for three quarters. They're going to be much lower in the fourth quarter, and that's – it can be somewhat lumpy in international, and one of the reasons for that is because of export. We have lots of different countries, so it doesn't always come in that evenly. It's no reflection of our long-term expectation of international, but international will be part of the story for the fourth quarter and why we'd be a little bit short.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

So, Matt, was there a little bit of timing just to clean that up? Was there a little bit of timing that helped international in the quarter, because you guys are running ahead, I guess, of where you had guided for the year in international? Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. No, we came in at 6% – 6% and change organic for the quarter for international. It's early – we had a big first quarter for international, so it's a little bit lumpy. So, it'll be our lowest quarter of the year, but it's just going to fall over into 2018. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. And even on a stack basis in Q4, Kevin, we're still in the low-teens for the international business, so it's not like it's dropping off the face of the earth.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Yeah. No, no, no. Understood. Thanks, Rick. Two more quick ones for me. Waterpik, did you guys provide a growth rate in the quarter? I know you're guiding to 4%, but it's been growing 10%, historically, so I think a growth rate in the quarter would help. And then, related to that, what have you learned regarding the business post the close of the deal? Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. We didn't get into that level of detail as far as the net sales growth in the quarter, but what I can say is – what we had said is it's going to grow above our evergreen target of 4%. The business did perform well in August and September. So, we think that this business is going to be a big part of our story going forward. Some things we've learned, it's a very innovative culture; 20% of the business is online, which might be astonishing to you. It's sort of very sophisticated in how to sell online. I would think international is a big opportunity, because only $50 million of their business is international today. And of course, we have a $700 million business in international. So, we have a lot of leverage that we can help those guys grow their business. So, it's – we're very happy with this acquisition. The integration is going very well. Integration is not dependent upon people as much as it is a focus on how we can leverage the Church & Dwight with the suppliers and, also, the networks that we have internationally to grow their business.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks, Matt. One more, if you guys could comment on the pricing environment; increasingly, discussion is coming up that input costs have sort of reemerged here, but the consumer environment's weak and you guys are even pointing to that with some slower category data. So, what's your expectation here with respect to pricing in Q4? And as we look out to next year, do you see inability to take pricing? Is that something that you would lead in some of your categories? So, any commentary there with respect to the ability to take pricing as input costs inflate here would be helpful. And that's it for me. Thanks guys. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah, tapering pricing in this environment is very difficult. I mean, generally the only categories you're going to be taking price in is where you have a clear number one share, and even then, you need to have a story with respect to input costs. So, that would be, for example, in condoms for latex. So, I think price – pass-through of input costs is generally difficult. Typically, what you see is changing in quantity sizes, in ounces and units in a package, is how you're going to get price.

Kevin Grundy - Jefferies LLC

Analyst · Jefferies. Your line is open

Okay. Very good. Thank you. Good luck.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason English of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Hey, good morning folks. Thank you for letting me ask a question. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Hey, Jason. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Hey, Jason. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: Hey, there. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: You can always ask a question, Jason. Jason English - Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC: I can, but usually there's not always an audience to ask it to. So, I'm trying to understand gross margin a little bit better here, given the magnitude of pricing – negative price drag that rolled through the P&L, only 30 bps of cost inflationary pressure, I think I heard you say, Rick. Can you fill in the holes in terms of the rest of the gross margin bridge, while we wait for your 10-Q to come out and do it for us? And high level, it's hard to get to where you're at without an assumption that there is maybe up to 200 basis points of mix benefit from acquisition that's kind of coming out at the SG&A line. So, A, is that true? If so, it sort of implies underlying base business gross margins are down pretty substantially. Are you still sort of on track? I guess, kind of where I'm getting to is are you still sort of on track to, on an underlying basis, getting the margin expansion you expected at both gross and EBIT? And sorry, long winded, multi-faceted question. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah, lots of commas in there, Jason. But... Jason English - Goldman Sachs &…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jason Gere of KeyBanc. Your line is open.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks guys. And I know you've kind of talked a little bit about what next year could look like. I know there's an EPS number out there when you did the Waterpik acquisition. I guess I really wanted to focus more on the organic sales. And I mean, good to hear that the promotional environment is coming down a little bit and Personal Care doing a little bit better, but can you – your commentary about category trends, 1%-ish fourth quarter. How are you starting to think about next year? Do you think that we could see outsized growth, again, from international? Do you think Consumer Domestic is – I guess, we're going to have a little bit more of the same promotional changes out there? I was just wondering if you could maybe tease a little bit in terms of how we should be thinking about next year's organic sales growth. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. Well, as you know, Jason, we only give our outlook every February. So, we have no intention of giving a 2018 outlook today. What I can remind everybody of is that we have an evergreen target of 3% organic growth, annually, and that target is based on Domestic growth of 2%, International of 6%, and Specialty Products of 5%. And the Specialty Products of 5% is driven by the fact that, over the last couple years, we bought a couple of businesses, one was VI-COR, the other Agro BioSciences that got us into things other than dairy, so we're expecting a lot of growth from that business going forward.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is open

Okay. Maybe if I could just extend it just into, maybe, the Personal Care, since I broached the topic. If you could talk about maybe some of the businesses where, I think, there's some new innovation coming out; just wondering how that's starting to play into consumption trends. If you think about oral or the condom category, obviously, BATISTE is doing well and I know you're saying Personal Care is sounding a little bit better in October, but maybe can you flesh that out a little bit more, which categories where the innovation is resonating, where maybe you're kind of matching promotions on maybe gummies; I'm not sure. Can you talk a little bit about the trends that you're seeing, there, that gives you the confidence that Personal Care will be better in the fourth quarter and, hopefully, into next year? Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. Well, we're already seeing those trends in the fourth quarter. We're seeing that both vitamin consumption and condom consumption has improved from quarter-to-quarter. Now, we can – it's a little early with respect to answering your fourth quarter question when XOXO could be part of that story for condoms. And obviously, we had some new innovation on the vitamin side of the business. BATISTE, of course, is in dry shampoo, has been a rocket ship for us. You might have probably heard on my comments that that category grew 33% year-over-year in the third quarter and, at the same time, we grew share tremendously and we are at 33% share. That's a category that's $140 million. And if it grows as fast as the UK and where the UK levels off, it will be a $300 million category. So it gives you a little bit of color on three categories in Personal Care.

Jason M. Gere - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Your line is open. Rupesh Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.: Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. So I also wanted to ask about the FY 2018 outlook. And I know you're not looking to provide much detail for next year, but is that $209 million figure still the current thinking for next year or do we have to wait until next year to get an update on that number? Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. You have to wait till next year to get an update. There is a – we tried to give some visibility when we had the Waterpik acquisition on how we were thinking about it. There's also lots of puts and takes that we'll talk about in February, and we're going to wait until then to do it, right. Resin keeps coming up, right. And lots of forecasts out there are calling a return to pre-hedge pricing, but you see a lot of our peers taking big call downs in their external outlook. We don't think that's going to happen, for example, but we're not going to go through that level of detail right now in November. We're going to wait until February to give you the full soup-to-nuts forecast that we typically do. Rupesh Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.: Okay. Great. And then, just going back to the category growth rates, clearly, everyone's speculating on what's driving the slowdown out there. Do you guys have any additional perspectives on the slowdown that you saw in Q3? And then, if there's also – I was just curious if there's any way to quantify the type of uptick you're seeing in October from a category growth rate perspective? Thank you. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. I think the way to think about categories is you got to look at the volumes. So, the volumes are healthy in a lot of categories, so the real story is, when it comes to dollars, it's simply price; and, that's going to vary from category to category. And typically, it's much greater in household categories than it is in personal care, but as long as volumes stay healthy, I think that's a good barometer. So, I don't think that the price is something that is going to last permanently, but certainly it's something we're all dealing with now. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: And to answer your other question, Rupesh, in Q3 Matt had said categories – our categories were around 1.1% growth in October, it was closer to 2%, as an example. Why? Because some of the promotional levels weren't as deep and they were lapping some higher promotional levels in Q4 year-ago. Rupesh Parikh - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc.: Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Feeney of Consumer Research (sic) [Consumer Edge Research]. Your line is open.

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Thanks very much. Just a couple of questions. First, I'd love you to comment on your club and e-commerce performance, given that Consumer Domestic tracked just a little bit better than our scan data would have indicated, and maybe what categories are driving that. And a second question, related, on e-commerce, you had mentioned Waterpik's 20% online is a huge number. I think there's some obvious differences in that business that maybe make it more e-com friendly, but they – are there some learnings about Waterpik and some overlap where you can sell – you can learn from that and really advance e-com adoption at some of your other real high-value businesses that might overlap directly? Thanks very much. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. Sure. This is Rick. I'll take the first one and Matt will talk about the Waterpik e-commerce. Your questions really shift into consumption. So, consumption was around 2.3% for the quarter. We have a 200 basis point drag from couponing, right. That doesn't get measured in Nielsen-type data and – similar to last quarter. And then, we have 200 basis points of positive from untracked channels, like online and club. We said in the release that our online business was up 70%, for example. That's really VMS, litter and TROJAN are the three – the big ones on online business. So, that's how we get to our shipment number or organic number of around 2.2% for Domestic.

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. As far as your question on Waterpik, as I said before, it's a really impressive group of people that run that business. And when it comes to working online, it's early days, but what we've seen with respect to their development of web pages, the development of content for online, their social listening skills, the fact that they're already focused on Amazon, have sales on Amazon in Europe, they've been in it for – and more sophisticated than we've been for a number of years. So, we do think we can learn a lot from these guys. As far as is there any one specific category that would benefit, I mean, certainly it would be Personal Care more than Household because Personal Care lends itself more to online sales than Household. But it's a good question and we're very happy that these guys are now part of the family.

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Caroline Levy of Macquarie. Your line is open. Caroline Levy - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Thank you. Good morning. Just a few things... Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Hey, Caroline. Caroline Levy - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: ...on the acquisition – Good morning. Thanks. On the acquisition contribution outlook, it just seems that the contribution was bigger than we had expected in the past quarter. So, if you could just give us a sense from a sales standpoint whether you see that Waterpik is coming in ahead of plan? And then, staying with Waterpik, what percent of the sales come from sort of electronic – the gadget part and what percent from the replacement part that's more the annuity business, and just what's the cycle there? Just a little deeper understanding would be really helpful. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. Sure, Caroline. On the second one, in terms of the mix between units versus replacement, it's predominantly units, okay. It's a very small percentage that's replacements. That's not really as applicable at this time, right. Maybe that'll change one day in the future, but right now, it's largely just the replacement units and it's like a three-year replacement cycle, in general. So that's why innovation is so important, but that's also why category penetration is really the driver behind that business. And then, your first question was on Waterpik and just the contribution. We're not going to give details of the businesses; we just don't. That's not our past practice. We haven't done that with any acquisition, whether it was Avid, Orajel, or OxiClean. I'm trying to be as clear as we can, but for EPS it's a neutral impact for the year and…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Sam Reid - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Thanks, guys. This is actually Sam Reid filling in for Bonnie. I actually had a bigger picture question. There's been a lot of talk about private label in many categories across the U.S., but a lot less talk in detergents, which I guess is a clear positive for you guys. Why do you think the detergent category is somewhat immune from private label penetration, at least here in the U.S.? And then, separately, we know that private label detergent shares in places like Europe are significantly higher, at least in the tracked channels. Do you ever see this as a potential risk longer term to the U.S. market? Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: No. The reason for that is private label today in laundry, and has been for a long, long time, is generally mid-tier. It's not a deep value. And if you look at the long-term trends, mid-tier has been the share donor to premium and to value detergent for a long, long time. And the reason you don't have a value in private label is because you already have deep value laundry detergent products on shelf, and so it's very difficult to make any money in deep value and come in as the opening price point below an extreme value laundry detergent. So, yeah, private label laundry detergent really is miniscule in the U.S. for that reason.

Sam Reid - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Got you. No, that's really helpful. And then, I just had – I hate to belabor it, but another follow-up question on Waterpik; not about category growth here, though, but more on the showerhead business. What sorts of channel opportunities are you seeing here, specifically, now that you've owned this business for a little while? Just looking for some color there. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. I wouldn't say it's a distribution game. It's really more innovation. So, the folks at Waterpik are experts in water jet technology. And just as they have the number one share and really own the water flosser category, they also have the number one share in replacement showerheads. So, there's – regulations typically affect the replacement showerhead business. In other words, the number of gallons per minute, today, generally around 2.0; that's going to go lower in the future. Question is, do you have the technology to deliver the same consumer experience that you did when you had a higher water flow? So, it's – to go back to your question, it's not a distribution game. It's really an innovation game. Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: I agree with Matt. It's not a distribution game. We are having some early success getting the Waterpik sales team in front of some other customers that we have a larger presence at. So, we're happy about that as part of integration as well. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. I'll give you an example of innovation. So, one of the new products is a Pet Wand. So, you know that more people have pets than children today, and that continues to grow. So, it's getting behind that particular trend. So, its translating their technology in the shower into a wand for washing your pets.

Sam Reid - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo. Your line is open

Got you, guys. That sounds awesome. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mark Astrachan of Stifel. Your line is open. Mark Stiefel Astrachan - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Thanks, and morning, everybody. Wanted to understand the rationale for the new share repurchase authorization. Anything you're trying to say regarding appetite for M&A just sort of broadly? And I guess, related to that, if larger assets and, like, large assets, sort of equal size assets became available, would you consider something sort of outside the box, like an RMT, to potentially merge with those? Richard A. Dierker - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Yeah. I'll take the buyback one and I'll let Matt comment on the RMT-type stuff. This is very in line with our history, right. We've got a $500 million repurchase authorization. We've done that pretty much every other year. It's just in line with our – really capital allocation model; doesn't mean we're going to go spend $500 million next year on share buyback. It just gives us the flexibility and authorization. So, yeah, historical levels that you would expect is what we probably would do in the future, in concert with paying down debt; and, number one priority, also, is going after the right acquisitions. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: And to answer your second question, in my time with the company, we have looked at bigger transactions than the Waterpik transaction, which is our most recent one. And as far as other structures go, yeah, we're no strangers to visitors from the major banks coming in, proposing combinations with various companies in the past through other structures, which we'd always be open to to the extent that it is going to create shareholder value. But that's about all I could say. Mark Stiefel Astrachan - Stifel,…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And this concludes the Q&A portion for today's conference. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Matt Farrell for closing remarks. Matthew T. Farrell - Church & Dwight Co., Inc.: Okay. Well, thanks for joining us today and we'll see everybody in February with the 2018 outlook.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may disconnect. Have a wonderful day.