Earnings Labs

Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 4, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Church & Dwight Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I’ve been asked to remind you that on this call, the company’s management may make forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the company’s financial objectives and forecasts. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that are described in detail in the company’s SEC filings. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s call, Mr. Jim Craigie, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Church & Dwight. Please go ahead, sir.

Jim Craigie

Chairman

Thank you, and good afternoon to all of you. It's always a pleasure to present here in the center of global capitalism, in the New York Stock Exchange board of directors. So we've got a fun day today, hope you enjoy your meal and we have great presentation, Matt and I will give presentation today and then we'll take Q&A. So my legal bugle in the room, my general counsel say they have to open up the statement about Safe Harbor statement. They say that we have some forward looking comments today, if you believe anything then buy the stock, it's your problem, okay? The agenda, I'm going open up with some remarks. For those of you, the short attention span I'm going to give you six point that are going to be made today to away with. I'm going to then tell you the ten top total shareholder return drivers that drive our company. Matt will then talk about the fourth quarter results and the total 2014 results. Matt will also then get up and talk about our 2015 outlook, then again at the end we'll take some question from you and to our best give you some answers. What you're going to hear today, okay so here is your New York minute coming up. Number 1, we had excellent 2014 results we delivered 8% real EPS growth despite headwinds and we achieved share gains on all four of our mega brands. Two, we exited the year with very strong momentum, we had 5% organic growth in Q4 and we’ve had the highest growth margin of the year. Three, as we always do we’re playing to win in 2015 with a real aggressive but achievable plan. We have very strong new product pipelines I believe as strong as last…

Matt Farrell

Management

Okay, hello everybody. I am going to talk about some numbers now. I will start with the fourth quarter. Just going to roll down the headlines. So you can see that we had a fabulous quarter from an organic standpoint, 5.2% highest for the year and I am going to show you the progression of the quarter is in the second and largely driven by volume, 4.7%. And then our gross contracted 20 basis points, we actually had expected expansion in the fourth quarter. Couple of things happened to us, we have a little bit more FX contraction or FX closing contraction in gross margin in the fourth quarter, and also had a mix issue because our friend in a specialty products business had another stellar quarter. There were lower gross margin than the other division. Then our operating margin up 130 basis points. We also expected that to be higher but you probably all noticed that our marketing spend in the quarter was 13.8% and in our third quarter call we expected 12.2. So we elected to dial that up in the fourth quarter behind our brands. And as you can see, we head our expectations by $0.78. So it’s a little bit more color on the divisions. We see domestic 3.1%, international 74 and the specialty products business 20% I was a bit over surprised. So we came out a little over 5% for the quarter. Now you should look at that in context with what we are calling for next year. So you read in a release 2% to 3% and say while seriously had an awfully strong third quarter and fourth quarter, so that’s up with the 2% to 3%. So, the way to think about that is specialty product business had a stellar year. So…

Q - Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you guys, I don’t know if we can ask from the broader leadership team or questions just for you guys.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I am sorry. I leading my leadership team up here Bruce Fleming, Head of Marketing; Jacky Brova, the Head of Human Resource; Mark Conish, Head of Operations; Pat de Maynadier, my General Counsel; and Louis Tursi, my Head of Sales; and [Ric Trukcer] who is our number two guy in Finance. So we will try to see if we can feel this now we’ll talk into one our specialists here who’d been some key drivers behind the company.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Perfect. I'd actually like to hear from the specialists first, if that's possible. A question for you, Lou. You've lived through lots of environments out there. Right now a lot of us are looking at oil prices down, we're expecting resin prices to roll over. Now you told us you're banking on more of a normalized price environment as we go through 2015. So, Lou, in your experience, what do you see when input costs start to roll over? What are you expecting in terms of competitive intensity, trade spend, demands from retailers, et cetera? And, Matt, if we do see more pricing pressure out there in the market what offsets do you have throughout that P&L to absorb that?

Louis Tursi

Management

So it was your segment question?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Your pricing goes bad how do absorb it?

Louis Tursi

Operator

Okay with respect to your first question, I think one of the things I am sure everybody is tracking what’s happening with respect to how much you sold on deal in Q3 versus Q4 that was quite an improvement and if you look at so the four weeks end of January 17th I am sure everybody is going to look at that, that period looks a lot like Q4 rather than Q3 so that’s sort of early thinking with respect to.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The Q4 laundry detergent category was down only 1.9% the best time of the year and yet the trends are looking a little better, but I wouldn’t say that the world is over. And Lou do you want add in?

Louis Tursi

Operator

Yes, there is nothing much more to add then what you just said, so it has subsided in the back half of last year specially the fourth quarter. And we’re going in not knowing exactly where it’s going end up for 2015 where our company does an unbelievable job and react to whatever they do.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

[Jason], to your second question, if things get hot again out there from trade spending as we did this year we have two levers to step on we would step on SG&A probably first and try to squeeze even harder and if we had to last resource we’ll step on the marketing volume. I think Mat that comments just towards the end of his time, a lot of our competitors are cutting marketing spending in 2015. They cut 2014 they’re talking about cuts in 2015, we’re not, but if pricing was a problem you can be wrong on price out there but hopefully pricing now is kind of stabilizing out in the marketplace and we’ll spend our advertising dollar and again if the trouble happens, we always have the S&G lever to pull, don’t talk my employee but we’ll put hard.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

So Lou did you want to add anything to that discussion.

Louis Tursi

Operator

No.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Can you talk a little bit about the increase in the marketing between end of October, beginning of November when you gave us the guidance for the fourth quarter and what you actually spent, and where you saw -- it sounds like that was more advertising than promotion, but where did you see the benefit from that? Because it seems like in the fourth quarter the big upside surprise on the revenue line was on specialty, which you don't advertise. And it seems like the first quarter is only going to be 3% top-line growth. So, I'm wondering how confident you are or how happy you are with the payback from that incremental spending.

Matt Farrell

Management

Yes, just to clear to be clear the fourth quarter the five versus the three calls actually it was broad based that not just specialty was actually all three divisions did better than we had expected. I mean that’s all you should think about, so it wasn’t a doughnut for you know what you’re saying if you take up the marketing spend, did you get anything back for that. So remember the international business is a component at the consumer business and the domestic business also was up as well and Jim was correct where we put most of spend to kind of mega brands.

Jim Craigie

Chairman

We at the end of quarter at about tweaking about 12.2 which is lower than our annual average and as we saw the quarter progress and things are pretty looking good, it’s a big quarter for brands like TROJAN, TROJAN really bit at end of the fourth quarter and things like that, it’s a big quarter for laundry detergent so we have the opportunity to go back and spend that. We felt very good Bruce Fleming get his gang lifted the talk with the agencies. There was good quality advertising out there. So whatever we can and still deliver we promise, we went out there and spend the money and the organic results speak for themselves with a good quarter and we think it gave us momentum coming into 2015. We’ve done that in the prior years too so the payback ratio is always -- we can’t even calculate that for another couple of months to look back and done things like that, but we always feel we have good return on the money and again the organic at the first time, organic was good, the sales results were good, 20% EPS was good so whenever we get a chance to support our brands, we did have the honest and we had assigned and some competitors were pulling back. So it’s kind of competitive advantage for us to step up the gas and category we’ve faced competitors out there. So we took those abilities to do it again only because we knew we felt we can make sure we can deliver the goal we felt for fourth quarter EPS once we felt that was pretty solid, we then lose put some money in the marketplace when we had a good chance for quality advertising out there, it was advertising, it wasn’t trade. It was advertising dollars.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Over here Ms. [Schmitz]

Unidentified Analyst

Management

A couple questions, Jim. I think for the first time in probably five years you said you think the US economy is going to accelerate in the back half of the year. But you only guided to 2% to 3% growth in the consumer business. So, how do you square those two?

Jim Craigie

Chairman

We’ll also get -- I do think [$2 gas] is going to be a good thing in the economy. It’s got to help out. But, again, if you look at our aggregate categories across the year, the 13 or so category look in the aggregate categories grew on the year 0.2%. Again we still delivered 3.5% growth. Fourth quarter little bit better was 0.6% growth. So even with that we still count 2% to 3% of category growth. I will wondering where is this money is going. Hey we all saw Apple’s results, iPhone sales roof. My personal belief the majority of the savings from lower GAAP prices, lower energy cost is going to go into more discretionary category, such as iPhone, such as digital game, such as restaurant sales and things like that. I don’t think people are going to rush out and buy more laundry detergent in two phase and Cat Litter and things like that. Again we haven’t seen, okay, 0.6 was one of the best quarters we had in the fourth quarter but it’s not the old days for 2% to 3% category growth in that. So I am not going to step out right now and tell I see stronger category growth in 2015 which we haven’t seen yet.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And then, Matt, can you just go through the gross margin guidance? Because this quarter you said you have this massive negative mix from specialty, and next year specialty is going to go to, like you said, maybe flat to 2% or whatever. So, aren't you going to benefit from that mix reversing back out? And then on the commodity side, do you have hedges that are hurting you this year or are they even or are they beneficial?

Matt Farrell

Management

The first thing with respect to specialty, year-over-year. So if we said it’s going to grow 1% to 3% so it’s going to have big negative mix, but it’s negative it’s not going to a big positive year-over-year. So it’s just a small so this year when you have business up 9% of yourself and it grows 20% it’s a big swinger that business growing up’14 to ‘15 to growing 1% and the others growing 2 to 3 it’s going to be a big over. Sorry Matt, and what was the second question?

Unidentified Analyst

Management

The commodity stuff, just where your hedges are there because you talked about--.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

So we have lots of, we have seven inputs that are most volatile that we have talked about in the past. So we have just going to run to employee again. There is surfactants resin, paper is probably be your big three. After that you probably have palm fatty acid distillate and then diesel oil and then followed by Latex. So we’ve probably got 6 or 7 right there. And I hate them all. As far as the hedging, diesel we have more hedged now than we were this time last year. Some of you who read 10-K so you are going to pick that up you are going to see we are 60% hedged and this up for ’15 last year around 30% so we are sad about that, we put less hedges on diesel the good news is on currency is as is said we got ahead of that. So we are not having as bigger heard as you would expect on the currency line. Some of the other ones that I discussed were not hedged at all, I won’t go into which ones, but on a fully loaded basis we are less hedged today than we were last year going to 2015 with the excision of diesel.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Got you. And then, Jim, do you still think that VMS and OTC is a platform for you guys? Because I know it's been a few years now since Avid. And I know there's been a couple of little bolt-ons. But it's still a massively fragmented industry and it seems like there's so much stuff out there. So why is it taking so long to get a more sizeable deal done?

Jim Craigie

Chairman

Bill, I think it is a massive platform by gumifying of the OTC world especially for kids. It’s a typical because you have to unlike vitamin where you have vitamin levels in that you put in vitamin you could eat the whole jar and it won't kill you. When you are dealing with actives whether it's cough and cold or aspirin allergy medicines you have to have the exact amount active in the gummy and maintain the exact amount of active in that gummy for 18 months to 24 months, that’s the truth and that’s what we are trying to correct right. We believe we can but it takes time to get there. So we can’t just unlike launching other vitamin which is relatively easy getting into the OTC categories is much more difficult and it’s just taking time, but we do see as a big opportunity.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I'm buying. Thanks. First, just to follow up on the input cost question, I'm going to assume the reason why the benefit is mostly in the second half of the year is because of the diesel hedge. So, it's that everything else starts to catch up in the second half?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

So it’s not just Steve, so I think all people would look at oil and so oil is down 50% therefore everything else must be down 50%, it’s not the case. So resin for example is down 10%. So it takes time for it to work their way through the supply chain and through the inventory. So I think heard lot of CPG companies saying expect the benefit more in the second half than the first half. So that’s kind of diesel story, that’s all the inputs.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And at this point how significant? When we think about gross margin through the year, is it down in the first half and then up significantly in the second? Is it that sort of progression?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Well we said we are going to be flat to year-over-year in the first quarter. So the 43.4% last year first quarter. So, no help in the first quarter so obviously the next three quarters are going to have to be bigger than a 25% expansion. So yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay. And if you could talk a little bit about the children's Gummies. You mentioned in the release that that business is a little bit softer in the fourth quarter. So, just curious if there's any real color on why and if your competitors are finally waking up and realizing that this is a great product for them?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I mean it’s very competitive, the children’s gummy section is very mature. So I think that the vitamins for kids took thirds of it is already in gummies, so is there is not lot of room there. So it’s super competitive. We are still the number one there. We big a gap as we had before so in measured channels, L’IL CRITTERS is 28% share and Flintstones also the 28% share which is there, but that excludes COSCO and that's were huge in COSCO, so with COSCO we're sort of number one in kids. But yes people have woken up two earliest competitors and we'd see a lot of the people are successful in gummies right in children's gummies coming with characters. They license characters. So that sells with kids where we don’t pay a license consequently we have a higher margin because we just have the L’il Critters. But we haven’t gone that path with the characters.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

But again we're more focused on adult for those 21 times of size of a kid category and $7 billion category with only 8% penetration of gummies right now. I just had my annual physical at John Hopkins a few months ago and I was talking to my doctor and he was asking about the business. I told him we send we sell vitamins so I sent him a box of gummy vitamins. And he just wrote to me back the other day his mother-in-law was in town that she tasted the vitamins she loved them so much she took on the bottle of gummy vitamins which is exactly what I've always said I dare anybody to try a gummy vitamin in the adult and if you don’t switch from your hard pills you're crazy, you're done. Pass the microphone back there.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. A year ago this time we were talking a lot about really intense slotting fees in the first half with all of the new launches. Matt, in your gross margin bridge I didn't hear about any pull back in that year over year, so I'm wondering what's gone on in that line. And then just given the commentary around hedging, given where you are in FX and the timing delays in the commodities, holding everything else equal, does that imply you're going to probably have a 1 point incremental FX drag in 2016 that we should be thinking if we're thinking beyond 2015?

Matt Farrell

Management

Yes I will take that one first for FX so you're right. So if the fact that dollar stays strong for the next three years to four years then right from '15 going to '16 we would have a hit a bigger hit with this type of currency, but that is a broader issue for any multinational company. So one of the things that tends to me that a lot of investors are not focusing on is when you look at EPS people say well, here is the EPS I'm going to add back local currency some are going to feel good saying well absent local currency here is my number, but as you pointed out if the dollar stay strong in three year to four year period the cash earnings of multinationals is permanently like depressed and we don’t have that issue because as Jim said 90% of our profits are kind of the U.S. so yes we'll have some of bit of a hurry in '16 versus '15 but the good news is that our cash earnings will not be permanently depressed by strong dollar. Your first question with respect to slowing, so yes you're right we had a lot of slowing in the first half of this year and I didn’t call that out separately but I did say was that gross margin would be up 75 basis points in 2015 for three reasons and it was commodities good to create in a normalized environment for pricing so it's all kind of motion in there and within that you have trade, coupons and slotting. So there are a lot of variables coupons is a multiple of slotting. We did call that out last year because we were going after so much new distribution for OxiClean but the math is far more complicated than that so we're 75 basis points up from those three factors and then we had FX and the new plant 50 basis points going other way.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Okay, two questions. One we heard a lot about the four mega brands obviously getting the bulk of the resources, and the shares were well. But can you talk about the five power brands that I think two of the shares were up, three were down? Can you just talk about how you manage those sales versus profitability just on an ongoing basis and taking innovation into the context of it? The second question is really on international. I know you have some international power brands out there, too, but can you talk a little bit more about the nine core brands and any plans in terms of incremental distribution that's not out there already?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Correct me if I am wrong. But in the fourth quarter of the five other power brands three of them had share up two had share down the one with share down pricing situations one was extra actually which is our lowest priced laundry detergent has been hit hard by all the discounting going out there and we're fighting back and extra shares actually coming back and pretty much plus or minus now and then first response has been hit hard again by one of our competitors there's been a lot of deep discounting on pregnancy kits, so we're fighting back the share losses were minimal they weren't big at all innovation wise we're just as strong on those brands launching all new forms of products across those brands so I feel very strong but it's again we are putting more of a focus on the mega brands because the dollars family be a lot more brands. But we haven’t cut back that much on other still planning appropriately honestly we haven’t faced as much competition on an advertising basis in those categories as in the past some of our competitors have pulled back an advertising going into price. So we're trying to find the right balance.

Matt Farrell

Management

Bruce could you comment on our vigilance with respect to share voice and share market?

Bruce Fleming

Analyst

Yes I would just echo what Jim said and also what by focusing in the four mega brands we flowed our marketing and media support against those brands to drive them but also against the power brands that had innovation in a particular year okay so you'll see us calling audibles from year to year and even within a year typically we pick our stocks where we think we think we have the best innovation where we have the most competition and then we'll spend there. And add to Matt’s point over the years that I've been marketing I've really tried to extend it about share of voice to share market of about 200% index if not higher depending upon the category and if you are in wide space even more. So, we really look at our media budget as one that we are not stealing Peter to pay a Paul on a day-to-day basis, what we are doing is we are trying to figure out where we are going to optimize return for the shareholders.

Matt Farrell

Management

I would just add to into two examples like Jim said if they were both specific examples of highly aggressive competitive pricing activity, in both those cases.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

On vitamins, if gummies are such a great category, why is it still only a single-digit percentage of the category in the adult area? Is there more that needs to be done in terms of promotion, marketing, et cetera? Why isn't there bigger --?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The best answer to that is answer the vitamin category is not heavily advertised category. When we saw what happened a lot of competitors doing buy one get one free, they put lot of money in the promotion, they weren’t put the money in advertising so people just honestly were not aware to this day I meet people many adults I go to and say hey should we try a gummies vitamin actually my kids taken, I say no we haven’t for doctor like they have no idea. So I think this year we increased our advertising spending by 25% or some like that this year, there is still sort of a very low base the business we bought. So it’s something we came trying to raise the budget, and we are starting the promotional competition and that. Centrum is in there. One a Day is in there. The money has started to come through. And we do a lot of in-store trials, as I swear to god and he will be another Costco and things like that they got a pop gumming your mouth and that’s when like my doctor example, his mother-in-law, his 70 year mother-in-law taste the gummy she is like unconverted but she is never knew the exist before until I literally gave him a free bottle.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I would add that demographic wins in our favor too, because a lot of parents who have been giving their children gummies over the last 20 years which relatively new form of vitamin is now they are rich in age and they are thinking what can we do for ourselves, as a further parents. So we see great upside as Jim mentioned before on the 8% of the adult vitamin category is in the gummy form. So there is much more run way there.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Something 3 to 8 in just two years. I mean that have seen like but that’s pretty big shift overtime. We want to get the double-digits in 2015 and keep growing. So we are going to launching new forms stuff along, but the bigger thing is advertising and trials, driving trials because people just, it’s not a category like laundry detergent we spend a money it was never a big advertised category blame the competitors that it included company we bought they just a advertise at least the people does really won’t aware of it. And the kids did because the kids wouldn’t eat anything but a gummy and no problem taking they will take the hard pills they are used to it, the parents switched the kids to the gummies the kid would not eat the hard pills so that’s why gummies popular with kids but this is right. Our advertising target today is people who are parents of kids to ate gummies, because gummies because they are the like hey my kids and we find many times that parents were stealing the kid’s gummies out of the in the morning and popping a few, so that’s the case. We just got keep spending on the advertising keep driving the trial.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Got it. And then on organic sales I'm still trying to understand the gap between Q1's plus 3% versus the full year of 2% to 3%, because you made the commentary on the press release about how you expect US to get better. You've got a lot of incremental activity dedicated towards OxiClean which is hitting the top line in Q1. So, US is getting better, presumably you're taking some pricing in some of your international markets where you can, and slotting fees and all these incremental trade spending things should go down as the year progresses. So, what's the delta there?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The Q1 were same 3% but on full year percent 2 to 3. So there are two things one is Q1 authority has come so last year we were 1.4% organic. And they look at that is specialty products although all are going to 3%, they are going to coming like lion and act line lan. So they are going to do fairly well in the first quarter but they are coming back down to earth in a hurry. So they won’t look like Q4 specialty products but abilities in the first quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

There was an article I think today about some retailers being charged with selling product that actually didn't have in it what it was supposed to. Which we were wondering if that would affect your vitamin business at all. Or if it's good for you because you can defend that, in fact, if people analyze what's in your vitamins they do what they say they do. Or if this is another negative piece of news for the category. I don't know if you saw the article.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

I don’t think something we're very on top of, we're very careful that we put exactly in the vitamins what we say I am not going to comment on the competition, but we are aware but our quality control as we have stepped up spending on quality controls since we took over the business. The just to be clear that article by about urban products we don’t have in our product business and we to get something are products that we have couple of urban ingredient. So we are unaffected by that announcement.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And then my second question just on product mix and the contribution of that to price mix and margin. If you see growth on your four power brands, mega brands, does that generally help margin? If you could just walk us through some of the big movers there.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

That will generally held margin , almost all of the power brands growth margin is slightly above the company average, some within, Arm & Hammer is the complex one, Arm & Hammer has some forms that are below company average, some above. It depends on that which ones are hotter colder at times but generally it’s a positive and TROJAN very high gross margin vitamin is little bit up company average another way to think about.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Another way to think about household generally has lower gross margins, personal care higher, so you got look at our house personal care growing. The second piece of it house international growing, so that’s largely personal care business going to help you think about where you going to get gross margin expansion from.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Mr. Travel came in late from Atlanta already there are some other more important companies we’re going do.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Did I miss the TSR chart?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes, you do, you can come back.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

I'll catch up on that. A couple questions on detergent. On OxiClean, I know you did go through it, but give me a state of state from you or Lou after the first year. Was 1% share what you were thinking? Where can it go? Is it priced right in terms of within the grand mix? And do you expect increased distribution even coming into this year or is the goal to hold it? And then on the bigger category -- and I'm sorry if you did talk about compaction -- are we still on plan for next year for the next round? And are there any costs associated in the back half of the year to make that transfer?

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes, I would tell you and I’ll let Lou jump in. I would tell you OXICLEAN laundry detergent came into ballpark where we expected, don’t forget we launched right into the peak of math and price war, so that made us pull back on the rest a little bit. The brand built nicely through the year. We’re going to again put continue trial level devices behind at this year to continue to grow share behind the business, so on down track it was set back by the price war which we didn’t expect that is the extended happened in 2013. So I know another year strong trial in OXICLEAN and then consumer feedback is outstanding. The consumer comments we get and the surveys we take are just outstanding, so the products after delivery -- we’re this year making minor tweak to in some cases sizes and fresh points I am going to get into that kind of detail but we’ll make some minor tweak there we think to make the brand more competitive out there. Lou do you want add anything?

Louis Tursi

Operator

Yes, the only thing I would add Bill is going in 2014 we knew from the beginning that this is going to be a multiyear launch it was going to be a one hit wonder. And we needed to spend behind it over a multiple years. Jim and Matt said earlier that’s exactly what we’re going to do and we’re fully guns blazing in 2015 again to help support that whole launch. We’re also introducing some new items and you asked how is the distribution going, it’s too early to tell we should wait here. But we’ve been fortunate of over the many years Jim has a chart in one of his early ones how we’ve grown distribution. So the retailers have been very supportive of all and innovation over the years. And so we’re very hopeful that although it’s still early at that to support all launches in 2015. On the compaction there has been nothing announced on compaction when the next round would be we’ll tell you our company would participate look forward to it, but I am not exactly sure it’s 2016.

Jim Craigie

Chairman

Wal-Mart says in 2017 probably.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

It’s out.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. Jim, when you look at the gross margin chart right over time, you cited, I think, 2004 until current in its really impressive gross margin expansion. But it struck me that most of that came through 2009. It's been extraordinary circumstances but since then the gross margin has been roughly flat. So, I was hoping you could walk through and explain what kind of an opportunity do you see in gross margin over time? And where does it come from? Is it more M&A dependent or can you really squeeze more out of the Company for a while?

Jim Craigie

Chairman

You’re probably right since we’ve run a lot of price force and competitions since 2009 and that our goal is still long term to be 25% to 50% basis points of gross margin growth as we get start and we haven’t had a massive acquisition since 2009 of high level gross margin on that, but we still believe overtime we can gross margin on average 25% to 50% basis points, so that’s kind of our goal getting into there.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Right and remember we said earlier Chris is that personal care is where the higher margin is, so that’s where you want to concentrate your growth in the future. And acquisitions one of standards that it has to be accretive to the corporate gross margin and that has certainly helped us overtime and needs to continue where we’re going to 50%.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

The only think I would add to it as Matt and Jim have said before that we’re enhancing our systems and so we’re looking forward through the systems enhancement how to improve our efficiencies within all levels of our spending trade coupon et cetera. So we’re looking forward other ways through enhancements of our systems moving forward.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. Is there a brand in your portfolio today you see becoming the next mega brand? Or do you have to go out and buy one first? And, second, what's been the issue on the M&A side? Has it been all valuation or are there just not targets that are in your alley, effectively?

Jim Craigie

Chairman

I can’t answer the first it’s powerful based on some stuffs looking at one of our current other power brand looking mega brands possible, but I am not considering more than that. M&A environment is very interesting we’ve been very active I think I’ve said to you I’ve spent more time and my team spent more time in 2014 pursuing acquisitions they never before. One of the reasons I made this switch and promoted Matt to COO was besides the fact he’s been voted the number one CFO for like five straight years. He was get little bored. I want to spend more time looking at the acquisitions looking at the long term strategy in that and he was already running the day-to-day business anyway, so I gave him that promotion but allowed to me to spend more time with my team looking acquisitions. It’s an interesting markets. It’s interesting because acquisitions should be very hot, debt so cheap, everybody wants organic growth, wants the good sales growth in that. I would tell you generally sellers are little greedy. I will give you a roundabout case we had one this year within the ballpark of $0.5 billion acquisition price you're very interested in it, very high gross margin. We were told at the competitive bidding process, we got very deeply involved, we chased it in the end, we assessed a proper bid that was a little less than what the seller wanted, but that actually due diligence in using proper multiples in the marketplace for sales. And then we got a phone call saying you're out and somebody else can win the bid. So guess what's happened nobody's won the bid. It was bologna, there was nobody else in there and our bid was the best they didn’t get they…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Thanks. Jim, just to follow on to Joe's question there on M&A, we talked last year at CAGNY. Is there still a personal care bias with respect to M&A? And then I think ideally you were saying at the time that the right asset could potentially have a footprint in both the US and international where you could recognize higher cost synergies but maybe expand the footprint internationally. But maybe reconcile that today with some of the commentary around the stronger dollar, et cetera.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Yes I mean as Matt said several times our personal care acquisition almost always comes with higher gross margin, OxiClean a household business came with personal care type margins but yes I mean generally we'd love to buy a business with the best possible gross margin yet that's generally personal care business but honestly I'm quite agnostic about also by a great household business to your second point's kind of interesting because of what's happened in currencies right now, everybody in their brother is looking for a U.S. based acquisitions. So U.S. based acquisitions have become very hot because the dollar situation the foreign currencies so maybe a little more competition there I somewhat look at that as maybe there's good opportunity get a great buy on a foreign company and things like that so we haven’t cut back it all on our look around the whole globe for good acquisitions paying a fair price for them, so I mean we're just out there trying our best to find the right deal out there. But I mean you haven’t seen that many acquisitions happen honestly in the industry it's been kind of quiet I think honestly part of it is because the stock market has still been so strong I think a lot of Boards are sitting there going hey yes organic growth is not good hey yes we got problems but hey the stock's up 20% what's the problem and let's not go make the big deal on that so I think to fight being super cheap it's a perfect time to take debt leverages out there there's a lot of companies are sitting back and just saying I'm not going to make the move because there are no perfect deals out there the perfect little company with the…

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

She said she would try to down grade us on success few times but we still succeeded. So anyway we love you and good luck in retirement. For the rest of you today we showed you our plans, we feel very proud the results we turned in 2014, 2015 we think our outlook is right on the button going forward a very tough year of all the foreign stuff going out but we are going to deliver outstanding results compared to our competitors or often negative EPS numbers call for next when you take your currencies in to effect, deliver you 8% real reported EPS next year, which I think half of the pack of the industry. So with that I thank you for coming on a very difficult weather day and please get home safe and sound, thank you.