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Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 20, 2026

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Centerra Gold Fourth Quarter 2025 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Wilkinson, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications with Centerra Gold. Please go ahead.

Lisa Wilkinson

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Centerra Gold's Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Paul Tomory, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Hendriks, Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Snyder, Chief Financial Officer. Our news published last night outlines our fourth quarter 2025 results and is complemented by our MD&A and financial statements, which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and our website. All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Presentation slides accompanying this webcast are available on Centerra's website. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. For more information, please refer to the cautionary statements in our presentation and the risk factors outlined in our annual information form. We will also be referring to certain non-GAAP measures during today's discussion. For a detailed description of these measures, please see our news release and MD&A issued yesterday. I will now turn the call over to Paul Tomory.

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst

Thanks, Lisa. Good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, we achieved strong operational performance at both Mount Milligan and Oksut. Consolidated full year production was over 275,000 ounces of gold and 50 million pounds of copper, surpassing the midpoint of our gold production guidance range. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,614 per ounce, outperforming the low end of our guidance range. We ended the year with a cash balance of $529 million, demonstrating our ability to continue investing in the Thompson Creek restart project and our broader organic growth pipeline while returning record capital to shareholders, including $94 million of buybacks and $41 million in dividends for the full year. Looking at to 2026, our production and cost guidance reflects stable operating performance across the portfolio. We expect our operations to continue to generate strong cash flow in 2026, providing the financial flexibility to advance our growth project pipeline while continuing to return capital to shareholders. Our self-funded growth strategy is being executed across multiple fronts. Last year, we published the Mount Milligan PFS, which extends the mine life by 10 years to 2045. We also commenced development of the Goldfield project in Nevada, which will provide Centerra with additional exposure to future gold production in a top mining jurisdiction. And in the early part of this year, we announced the results of preliminary economic assessment for Kemess, along with an updated mineral resource. This was an important step forward in advancing Centerra's organic growth pipeline in British Columbia. Each of these growth opportunities, in addition to the Thompson Creek restart project in Idaho, can be funded from our existing liquidity and cash flow generated from operations, positioning Centerra to deliver sustainable, low-risk growth while maintaining our strategic approach to capital allocation. An updated mineral resource,…

David Hendriks

Analyst

Thanks, Paul. Slide 9 shows operating highlights at Mount Milligan for the fourth quarter. Mount Milligan produced over 44,000 ounces of gold and 13 million pounds of copper in the fourth quarter. Full year 2025 gold and copper production was over 147,000 ounces and 50 million pounds, respectively, which was in line with the recently published PFS mine plan. In 2026, Mount Milligan gold production is expected to be 140,000 to 155,000 ounces and copper production is expected to be 50 million to 60 million pounds. Operating metrics, including gold and copper grades and recoveries, are expected to be in line with the recently announced PFS mine plan. Gold production and sales are expected to be lower in the first quarter and higher in the second and third quarters of 2026, reflecting the planned mine sequencing. Copper production and sales are expected to be evenly weighted throughout 2026. In the fourth quarter, all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $913 per ounce, 38% lower quarter-over-quarter due to higher ounces produced and sold. Full year AISC on a byproduct basis was $1,194 per ounce below the guidance range. We expect AISC on a byproduct basis in 2026 to be between $1,200 and $1,300 per ounce. Slide 10 shows the quarterly operating highlights at Oksut. Fourth quarter production was over 26,500 ounces of gold. As part of planned mine sequencing, heap leach tonnes stacked in the quarter were lower as mining activity focused on waste stripping in the Keltepe pit to open new ore zones in line with the 2026 mine plan. Oksut delivered full year 2025 production above the top end of the guidance range, producing over 127,700 ounces of gold during the year. In 2026, gold production at Oksut is expected to be 110,000 to 125,000 ounces. Gold production…

Ryan Snyder

Analyst

Thanks, David. Slide 12 details our fourth quarter financial results. Adjusted net earnings in the fourth quarter were $83 million or $0.41 per share, which benefited from strong production at Mount Milligan and elevated metal prices. Key adjustments to net earnings include $145 million related to the noncash impairment reversal at Kemess, $17 million of unrealized loss on the financial assets related to the additional agreement with Royal Gold, and $35 million of deferred income tax adjustments, among other things. For the full year 2025, adjusted net earnings were $229 million or $1.12 per share. In the fourth quarter, sales were over 68,000 ounces of gold and 12.5 million pounds of copper. The average realized price was $3,415 per ounce of gold and $4.69 per pound of copper, which incorporates the existing streaming arrangements at Mount Milligan. Approximately 3.6 million pounds of molybdenum were sold in the fourth quarter at the Langeloth facility at an average realized price of $23.78 per pound. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis in the fourth quarter were $1,646 per ounce. Full year 2025 all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,614 per ounce, outperforming the guidance range. Slide 13 shows our financial highlights for the quarter. In the fourth quarter, we generated strong cash flow from operations of $103 million and free cash flow of $12 million, driven by strong operational performance at Mount Milligan and Oksut as well as elevated metal prices. In the fourth quarter, Mount Milligan generated $85 million in cash from operations and $54 million in free cash flow. Oksut generated $57 million in cash from operations and $44 million in free cash flow. The molybdenum business unit used $15 million of cash in operations and had a free cash flow deficit of $61 million this quarter,…

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst

Thanks, Ryan. We're very pleased with our performance in 2025, reflecting strong operational execution, disciplined cost control and assets that continue to generate meaningful free cash flow. Our balance sheet strength and consistent cash generation give us the flexibility to self-fund an attractive pipeline of low-risk, value-accretive growth while continue to return capital to shareholders. With a stable operating base, a clear line of sight to growth at Mount Milligan, Kemess, Goldfield and Thompson Creek and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, we believe Centerra is well positioned to deliver sustainable value for shareholders in 2026 and beyond. And with that, operator, we can open the call to questions, please.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Luke Bertozzi with CIBC.

Luke Bertozzi

Analyst

I'd like to begin with the Langeloth suspension. During the shutdown, I understand inventories and working capital are expected to build. How much molybdenum concentrate has already been contracted for purchase in Q1 and Q2 2026?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst

Luke, I'll pass it over to Ryan.

Ryan Snyder

Analyst

Luke, I don't want to get into the necessary details on concentrate purchases. If you think of last year's volumes, which was about 14 million to 15 million pounds, we were stepping up slightly from there. So that can give you a bit of a range. But you're right, we're going to continue to purchase concentrate during the shutdown. So there will be an associated inventory build over the next couple of months.

Luke Bertozzi

Analyst

I see. And do you think there's any flexibility from some of those suppliers or opportunities to temporarily reroute the concentrate?

Ryan Snyder

Analyst

Yes. We're looking at all of that, right? We're working with our customers, obviously, our downstream customers to try to find solutions. We're going to be looking at what we do with the concentrate. But our commercial team is working at trying to find the right solution there. There probably is homes for that concentrate, but we have to decide on what we're going to do with it and what our customers need eventually once we restart before we decide to move any concentrate or anything like that. So it is a dynamic situation. I think we're evaluating it day by day here, and we're going to do what's best for the company and for our customers.

Luke Bertozzi

Analyst

Yes. Okay. Shifting to Mount Milligan. There's a mention of water management projects in 2026. Can you elaborate the scope of some of those projects? And are they largely onetime in nature? Or should we expect them to continue into 2027?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst

Dave can take that one.

David Hendriks

Analyst

Yes. Luke, so the water work is something that's continuously ongoing. We're always replacing pumps, making sure we have the right pieces at the right amount of water coming in. And so it's a constant bit of work there. The capital this year is maybe a little bit higher than past years, but it's not substantially so. It's almost more of a sustaining piece. And I think there's one new set of a well field that we're putting in this year, that would be the exception to that rule, but it's pretty much normal business of what we're doing with the water this year.

Luke Bertozzi

Analyst

Okay. Great. Well, congrats on the solid quarter and stable outlook.

David Hendriks

Analyst

Thanks, Luke.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Jeremy Hoy with Canaccord Genuity.

Jeremy Hoy

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

Mine is on MS on the PFS. Do you envision this being sort of an updated PEA with tightened assumptions around OpEx and CapEx and additional technical work? Or is there an opportunity to potentially bring in additional resources if there's success on the exploration front and the conversion front?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst · Canaccord Genuity.

Well, the purpose of the PFS that we've already launched here is to tighten up our assumptions, advance the engineering and, importantly, get going on some of the environmental work that will be ultimately required for some of the permitting. In terms of the resource, I think what you're referring to is the PEA mines out not even half of the total resource. We will, of course, look to tighten up some of the drilling, move more from inferred to indicated, but in terms of the scope of the mine plan, we're quite happy with the 15-year mine life that we have. And as the years go by and we do more drilling, we would look to expand the mine plan. But that is not the main objective of the PFS. The main objective of the PFS is to put forward a robust set of engineering and economics on the mine plan that was communicated in the PEA and leaving upside for the future. I mean, at the end of the day, a 15-year mine life is a really good starter plan, and we will look for additions to that beyond the initial phases of execution.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Don DeMarco with National Bank.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank.

So Paul, I saw the CapEx increase at Thompson Creek and a range is provided. So what represents the lower and the upper end of this range? And is the CapEx to restart subject to potential further increases? Or do you have fixed price contracts or other mechanisms in place that might mitigate future increases?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst · National Bank.

That increase was driven by a whole grab bag of different factors, and Ryan can detail how we worked out that increase estimate.

Ryan Snyder

Analyst · National Bank.

Don, yes, I think as Paul mentioned, there's a whole host of things in there. A little bit of that is inflation. A little bit of it is extra maintenance on our equipment. There's not a huge amount of physical equipment being purchased that you need to lock in on fixed price contracts. We are obviously starting the mill refurbishment. We have been signing some of the long-term contracts related to that. But a lot of this CapEx number is the actual mining and stripping, right? And that's impacted by how quickly you're able to mine, maintenance on your equipment, labor and things like that. And so it's tough to exactly fix that number. That's why we gave a range to take into account the variability on the ongoing cost to do the stripping. But I don't think there's big changes in physical equipment costs that are going to impact that number.

Don DeMarco

Analyst · National Bank.

Okay. Great. So second question then. So you're showing strong cost discipline, both in finishing below the lower end of the full year guidance last year and with only modest year-over-year cost increases in '26, whereas we see sector peers trending much higher in some cases. So broadly speaking, what underlies your cost performance across your portfolio and the cost discipline that you're showing into '26?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst · National Bank.

If we start with Mount Milligan, which is the main part of our stability in costs, we have, as you know, been working on a site-wide optimization program over the last couple of years, and that has yielded really good cost discipline and cost control. The challenges in the past of Mount Milligan have been more grade and recovery related while our efforts on cost control have proceeded very well. The other benefit we're getting is on the byproduct from copper and the strong copper prices have benefited us at Mount Milligan and with copper trading well above $4 here, that will continue. But it's, first and foremost, strong discipline on operating performance. On Oksut, I'll remind you of something that Dave said in his prepared remarks, a big part of the AISC is, in fact, a royalty that is being paid at the higher gold price. So it's -- it comes with the significant margin expansion with a higher gold price. But because of the royalty scale, we are paying now a significant per ounce royalty cost at Oksut.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

Brian MacArthur

Analyst · Raymond James.

Paul, over the last few years, you've done a good job of highlighting internal growth, whether it's Goldfield, extending Mount Milligan, Kemess, the other thing that's still sitting there is the Endako mill, given there's a lot of people wanting to build things at the moment in the world, is there any update on how you may be able to highlight some value there going forward?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst · Raymond James.

Well, I think you know Endako better than most. It still has a substantial molybdenum resource and a world-class process plant. Our current strategy is to proceed and reopen the Thompson Creek mine, feed Langeloth with concentrate from there. And our current strategy has Endako coming online after Thompson Creek is mined out. So we're talking 10 years before that comes online. As conditions change, we may reassess that, but the current strategy is to not do anything at Endako until Thompson Creek has been mined out.

Brian MacArthur

Analyst · Raymond James.

Would you be willing to sell the mill to someone else?

Paul Botond Tomory

Analyst · Raymond James.

Well, at the right price, we might consider it.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] This concludes the question-and-answer session and today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.