Curt Buser
Analyst · Citigroup. Your line is now open
Bill, thanks. So first, with respect to fee-related earnings margins and the like, generally that has not been, we have a high cost model really built around having the diversity in the platform. And so, we're really focused on as getting the full benefit of the diversity across the platform from all four businesses. You’re not going to see probably a material uptick in margins on a sustained basis until we really get the credit business doing well, that’s where we will really drive it. You will see some increases of a small amount, but nothing has materially changed on a long-term basis, but you will see this increase in management fees and that’s what’s going to really give us the benefit. Secondly, with respect to carry, the first thing is obviously thinking about our generation of performance fees, and the growth in accrued care. So, this quarter accrued care is about 1.5 billion, essentially about flat with down 70 million from last quarter but up substantially from a year ago, and you can kind of see that on Page 5. If you think longer-term, we’re in good shape to continue to build this. If you look on Page 29 of the earnings release, if you look at some of the major funds there you will see a lot access showing which are in accrued carry. The current generation of funds like Carlyle Partners VI has an 11% net IRR as of September 30, it’s roughly 84% invested, it has more run rate to go in terms of causing that total [indiscernible] in the returns to go up, so I can see more accrued carry being built out of that. Asia Partners IV 17% net IRR, 76% invested it is in accrued carry, I think there is more run rate there as well. Europe Partners IV, 7% net, not yet an accrued carry, full expectation is that it will be and that will be a big part for accrued carry. Same stories for NGP 11, real estate 7, Japan 3, international energy there is just a live-on here that’s going to continue to build our accrued carry balance. From our realization perspective we still have roughly 20% of the portfolio that’s over four years old, it is like 22% that portion will still be a able to contribute. Yes, our public portfolio is smaller than it has been, roughly about 14% now, but three very large public companies are in funds that are in accrued carry, and so you have the ability to realize from there as well. So overall, I think we’re in pretty good shape. The real key is, I look at as our ability to continue to grow accrued carry so that we can reload that pipeline if you will.