Curt Buser
Analyst · Evercore. Your question please
Thanks, Kew, and good morning, everyone. As Kew said, this quarter’s standout performance is a result of a clear focus on executing on our strategic plan. To set the stage, our strong momentum in fundraising, record pace of capital deployment and string of successful realizations are driving a significant increase in the scale of our earnings. These results are underpinned by attractive investment performance, and are fortifying our balance sheet to help us deliver long-term, sustainable growth in our global platform and fee-related earnings. Now, let’s dig deeper into our record third quarter earnings. I want to underscore the broad based strength across all components of distributable earnings, fee-related earnings, realized performance revenue and investment income. We delivered record pretax distributable earnings of $731 million this quarter. To put that in perspective, that is more than the entirety of the first half of 2021 and is more than 50% larger than any prior quarter. Our results are bigger, faster and better than they’ve ever been. Year-to-date, distributable earnings of $1.3 billion outpaces our full year performance in any year since our IPO by nearly 40% and this is without even accounting for what is shaping up to be a strong fourth quarter. On an after tax basis, we generated a record $1.54 in DE per share for the quarter. Moving on to the components of distributable earnings, let’s start with fee-related earnings, which was $151 million in the quarter and $424 million year-to-date, up 23% compared to 2020 excluding the impact of litigation cost recoveries in the first quarter of last year. We expect management fees and fee-related earnings to move higher next quarter as we activate fees on our latest generation U.S. Real Estate funds and our new U.S. h U.S. Buyout and Growth funds. Overall, we expect strong FRE growth over the next several years and are on track to hit our 2024 $800 million FRE goal earlier than previously anticipated. The Global Investment Solutions segment, we doubled year-to-date FRE to $64 million, as strong fundraising and deployment drove a 22% increase in year-to-date management fees with high incremental margin as year-to-date FRE margins expanded to 37%, nearly 13 percentage points higher year-over-year. Global credit grew fee revenues by $13 million and FRE by $8 million just since last quarter, a 30% sequential increase in FRE driven by strong capital raising and active deployment across the platform including record levels of direct lending origination and record levels of CLO issuance. In Carlyle Aviation, we completed the Fly acquisition, our largest fleet acquisition ever. Turning to Global Private Equity, we expect FRE to accelerate next quarter and continue to grow throughout 2022 as we benefit from strong fundraising momentum by activating fees later in the fourth quarter on newly raised capital. The positive impact from our capital market strategy is becoming increasingly visible as it further integrates with all our global investment teams. Net transaction and advisory revenue of almost $60 million year-to-date was nearly double last year and we expect fourth quarter underwriting activity to again drive significant transaction fee generation. Overall, our FRE margin of 33% year-to-date is up about 500 basis points over the past couple of years and is solidly on path towards our 40% target, which we are also likely to reach earlier than previously expected. Net realized performance revenue of $534 million is far and away our record quarter and was driven by $14 billion in realized proceeds. Importantly, we continue to have $204 billion in remaining fair value across our portfolio, which positions us to generate a high volume of realization activity over the next few years. In the third quarter, we completed private sales across a variety of funds and geographies with realizations of large buyout investments like Novetta and Bountiful and growth strategies like Net Motion and Newport Healthcare, and in continued activity across our U.S. real estate platform. We also took advantage of strong markets and exceptional investment performance with public secondaries including ZoomInfo, Ortho-Clinical and SBI Card. We have a significant backlog of realizations which close over the next few quarters and we expect to generate at least $450 million in net realized performance revenue over the next two quarters just from already announced sales with potentially significant upside from further realizations from our $19 billion public equity portfolio. We continue to have confidence in our ability to generate a high level of annual net realized performance revenues over the next several years. Accrued performance revenue remains near a record level at $3.9 billion, down modestly compared to last quarter despite record realizations as our funds continue to perform and appreciate. At this level, the net accrual represents more than $11 per share in future pretax earnings. We continue to have strong fund performance in a complex environment. Our global private equity portfolio appreciated 5% in the quarter and 31% year-to-date. This quarter we saw the strongest performance in real estate which increased 9% and the natural resources up 7%. Our broad CPE portfolio was up 4%, strong outperformance against the 1.5% decline for the MSCI All Country World Index. Global Investment Solutions had a great quarter once again with 10% appreciation across their portfolio and is now up 39% year-to-date. This quarter’s strength was led by secondary Main Fund investments and in Global Credit, we continue to thrive providing attractive risk reward across the investment spectrum where our assets under management of $66 million have more than doubled over the past several years. Realized investment income of $71 million in the third quarter reflects the strong returns and growing size of our on balance sheet investments, which totaled $2 billion at the end of the quarter. Year-to-date, realized investment income of $139 million is nearly triple the same period in 2020. And we are on track to exceed our 2024 target this year. Our strong earnings have fortified our balance sheet at a great time as we see multiple opportunities to deploy our growing capital base to accelerate our FRE growth by investing in larger funds, seeding new investment strategies, supporting new business activities, and taking advantage of accretive M&A over time. Given exceptional earnings and our opportunistic debt issuance last quarter, we expect to prepay $250 million in the remaining 2023 bonds in the fourth quarter. This will further improve leverage and boost our financial strength. To wrap up, we are excited to be delivering on our plan and what that means for our shareholders. We are in fact, outperforming our own expectations, and believe we are well positioned to do so for the next several years. Our strong momentum is allowing us to grow our FRE and our DE and invest in Carlyle’s longer term growth. We are creating exceptional value for shareholders and we continue to deliver on this growth. And let me turn the call over to the operator, so we can take your questions.