Curt Buser
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Kew, and good morning. We performed well in 2020 despite the pandemic and economic volatility throughout the year. We generated $762 million in distributable earnings, our best year since 2015 and DE per share of $2.05 for the year increased 20% over 2019. Before digging into our financial results, I'd like to touch on three items. First, our outlook for 2021 fee-related earnings and realized performance revenues. Second, the trajectory of our effective DE tax rate. And third, stock-based compensation expense and equity awards. First, fee-related earnings were $520 million in 2020 and excluding $30 million in cost recoveries during the first quarter adjusted FRE of $490 million, increased more than 8% year-over-year despite not raising new capital for any of our global private equity flagship funds. FRE margin on the adjusted basis was 30%, up nearly 200 basis points relative to 28% in 2019. For the year, global credit fee-related earnings of $99 million, more than doubled the 2019 level. While investment solutions FRE of $37 million was also more than double the prior year. In both cases, top line growth drove the majority of the year-over-year increase and margins expanded substantially in both segments. Looking at 2021, we expect realized performance revenues to continue to grow and we expect to produce similar to slightly higher FRE compared to adjusted 2020 results. Consolidated top line management fee revenues should modestly increase with more noticeable growth in investment solutions and global credit more than offsetting some downward fee pressure in global private equity as portfolio realizations increase. Global private equity will see growth in management fees and in FRE when our next multiyear fundraising cycle begins for our large flagship funds, which we do not expect to meaningfully affect our 2021 FRE results. Our net accrued carry of $2.3 billion is now 18% higher than its previous peak balance and the remaining fair value invested in our carry funds of $95 billion is 50% greater than its average balance during the period of 2012 to 2017 when our net realized performance revenues averaged over $600 million annually. With our funds performing well and assuming no material surprises in the capital markets, we expect realized performance revenues to gradually increase in 2021 and then in the years thereafter surpassed our prior annual averages. Regarding our outlook on our DE tax rate; in our first year as a full corporate taxpayer, our effective DE tax rate was 5%. The relatively low rate benefited from the utilization of legacy net operating loss carry-forwards in addition to the basis step-ups and tax amortization arising from our corporate conversion. For 2021, we expect our effective DE tax rate will increase to the mid-teens as we fully utilize the remaining legacy NOLs early in the year. Thereafter the effective rate is likely to continue to increase annually before settling in the low 20s in later years. Of course, this outlook is based on current tax laws and should changes arise in any jurisdiction, our expectations for effective tax rates may change as well. Moving on, stock-based compensation expense was $29 million in the fourth quarter and $117 million for the year, down 23% from $151 million in 2019. The decline owes [ph] to the positive impact of granting fewer year-end stock awards than in previous years, as well as the departure of certain senior executives during the year. As part of this year's compensation cycle, we granted long-term strategic equity awards to a small number of our most senior executives, which are predominantly tied to achieving milestones in our strategic plan. As a result, we expect our equity-based compensation expense to increase to amounts comparable to 2019. Let's shift to a broader discussion of our results. Overall, we had an active year and have great momentum entering 2021. As Kew noted earlier, we raised $27.5 billion in new capital in 2020 with both global credit and investment solutions posting a record fundraising years. Global credit surpassed its previous record by nearly 50% and investment solutions raise more than twice as much as any prior year. During the fourth quarter, investment solutions had a final closing on its $9 billion AlpInvest Secondaries program which round up nearly 40% larger than its predecessor and its new co-investment strategy is now raising capital. In global credit, we had an initial closing on our second opportunistic credit fund, and activity in several platform-wide strategies both segments are positioned well for future growth. Fund performance was particularly strong. The fourth quarter carry fund appreciation of 11% in corporate private equity, 3% in real estate, 3% in natural resources, 7% in global credit carry funds and 7% in investment solutions. Fee-related earnings in the fourth quarter were $145 million with a 34% margin, up from $108 million at a 26% margin in the fourth quarter of 2019, with the upside largely owing to higher total fee revenue and lower G&A expenses. Fee revenues for the fourth quarter of $429 million, increased 5% from last year, largely driven by higher transaction fees of $21 million, nearly double a year ago and up from virtually zero in Q3 2020. During the fourth quarter, we also activated fees on our new Japan Buyout Fund, increasing global private equity management fees from Q3. Fee earning assets under management was $170 billion, up 3% for the quarter and 6% over last year with a 28% increase in investment solutions and then an 11% increase in global credit, both driven by strong fundraising offsetting a modest decline for global private equity, as we continue to realize proceeds for our fund investors. Shifting to expenses, cash compensation was $202 million for the fourth quarter and $822 million for the full year, 4% higher than 2019. And we continue to be disciplined on managing compensation expense. G&A expense was $73 million in the fourth quarter, down from $95 million a year ago. For the year, G&A of $241 million declined 27% year-over-year, owing to lower travel expenditures as well as a $30 million litigation cost recovery in the first quarter. G&A expense should increase in 2021 due to a normalization in both items but we believe G&A expenses are likely to remain below prior peak levels as we capitalize on learnings over the past year. Net realized performance revenues were $87 million in the fourth quarter and for the year increased 50% from 2019. The majority of realized performance revenues this quarter was from our six US Buyout fund with carry from our Real Estate funds making up most of the remainder. In sum, we continue to be pleased with the durability and sustainability of our fee earnings and we are increasingly optimistic about the opportunity for growing DE over the coming years. We look forward to speaking with you all in a few weeks when we will go into more detail on our growth plan. With that, let me turn it back over to Kew for some final thoughts.