Glenn Youngkin
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is now open
Thank you, Kurt. And good morning, everyone. The strong results that Kurt just detailed reflect our real momentum as we enter 2018. While we are capitalizing on the industry's strong fundamentals, there are also a number of important Carlyle-specific trends reflected in these results. I'd like to focus you on three. Our growing earnings capacity, our fundraising momentum and our increasing level of earnings diversification. First, our growing earnings capacity. Kurt discussed our expectation for higher fee-related earnings as we move through 2018 and continue into 2019. In addition to fee-related earnings growth, we're accruing substantial performance fees across the platform. This drove 2017's ENI per unit of $3.47 and should translate into growing cash performance fees over time. What's most notable is the strong performance in the current generation of funds, funds that have recently reached or are nearing the end of their investment periods. Funds like US Buyout, US Realty VII, NGP XI. This generation represents roughly $50 billion of capital commitments or nearly 40% more than its predecessor family of funds. Importantly, the largest funds in this current generation are all now accruing carry. And therefore, we're at the front end of a generational carry transition as the old fund family passes the performance fee baton to this larger current generation. To give you a sense of scale, during 2017, our net accrued performance fees increased approximately $650 million despite withdrawing from our carry balance $550 million in net realized performance fees. Said a different way, our carry funds created for the firm, after all related expenses, $1.2 billion in performance fees during the year. Assuming we continue to perform the scaling effect should set the stage for a growing level of future accrued and realized performance fees, although the conversion of accrued performance fees to realized performance fees will occur over several years. We also see the scaling effect in the total fair value of our carry fund investments, which increased approximately 30% over the past year to $71 billion, well north of our previous peak. These indicators, when combined with the growing fee-related earnings contribution, highlight our increasing earnings capacity. The second key trend is our fundraising momentum. We have made great progress towards raising $100 billion by the end of 2019, having already raised $57 billion. Our latest vintage US Buyout, Asian Buyout and US Real Estate Funds are already larger than their predecessor funds, with additional capacity remaining. We still have meaningful work to do in 2018 as we continue to have a large array of funds in the market. However, our investors continue to be supportive, the fundraising environment continues to be good and we currently expect to raise approximately $25 billion during 2018. Importantly, the fundraising success of this next generation of larger funds, such as US Buyout VII, Asian Buyout V and US Realty VIII underpins the next stage of future earnings growth. Third, we're making progress towards diversifying our earnings stream across our segments. Corporate Private Equity has been our main driver of earnings. And with our continued great performance, that will not change in the near-term. However, a higher percentage of our future earnings should arise from non-Corporate Private Equity businesses. In 2017, our Real Asset segment contributed, exclusive of the Urbplan charge, $280 million in economic income. Investment Solutions contributed over $50 million; and Global Credit, whose progress is not yet fully reflected in our financial results, is expected to be a significant contributor over time. The activity levels in these other segments continue to increase. Over the past few years, we have raised and invested more than half of our capital outside of Corporate Private Equity. In fact, Real Assets, Global Credit and Investment Solutions have combined to account for 57% of fundraising and 55% of invested capital over the last three years. Assuming our funds perform as we expect, we should see an increasingly diversified earnings stream. Now, before I hand it over to Kew, let me address the impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on our business. We are frequently asked whether Carlyle will convert its public partnership to a C corp. It is very early days as to fully understanding the new tax law's impact. Our extensive analysis suggests that ENI and EE in a C corp. structure would be reduced by approximately 15%, similar to what you've already heard from others in the industry. Further, as you know, converting to a C Corp. is a no-going-back kind of decision. So, while we are comfortable with our partnership structure today, we will revisit this topic when appropriate as the certainty related to both the drawbacks and benefits of a possible conversion become more clear. The new tax law is a pro-growth, pro-business package. We do see a strong economy both in the US and globally and expect the tax changes to further support this growth. For the majority of our portfolio companies, the benefit of a lower corporate tax rate outweighs the costs associated with potential limitations on interest expense deductibility. Most of our portfolio companies have reasonable capital structures, are growing earnings and benefit from low interest rates. While we are in the early days of assessing the tax plan, we do think it should provide an overall positive impact on our portfolio. We had a good year in 2017. Not only was our performance strong, we're also successfully resolving, or have resolved, the legacy issues that required meaningful attention and cost over the past few years. We enter 2018 focused, with great momentum, and looking forward to the opportunities in front of us. And with that, let me pass it over to Kew.