Bert A. Frost - CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Management
What we see, again, from China, every year is a different year, and every year is a different pronouncement or program coming out of China. If you look at the base model of China, we have unsustainable coal prices, unsustainable logistics, unsustainable issues in terms of pollution and just areas surrounding what's being produced and exported. And so they are going to have to rationalize, and we see that taking place with 8 million tons coming off, and we expect additional rationalization and, if pricing remains at its current level, possibly permanent shutdowns. The export tariff is about $12 per ton. So, if today, – and this number has been moving, but Chinese urea is quoted in the $195 to $200 range FOB for granular. And so you cut that price down to, let's say, $185, you're still, one, quality is poor, or less – it's not received as well as our products or some of the products coming out of the Arab Gulf. And so is that enough for them to compete? I don't think $12 is going to get them over the hump to allow them to compete on a consistent basis at the current market. So we expect to see – they need to have rationalizations, their domestic industry cannot support the total capacity they have. So, like Tony said, they're operating at a 60% to 65% operating rate and their exports are trending down. All those are trends that in the lowest cost, probably, position that they will have with, again, coal being low, currency around 6.65 yuan, and so, the only thing probably going forward, I would say, moderating is moderating up on all those issues. So you can get $12 on your export tariff, you're probably going to lose that to raw material costs and freight costs over time.