Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q4 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 20, 2026

$59.44

+0.22%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.52%

1 Week

-2.05%

1 Month

-4.58%

vs S&P

+0.68%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for attending the Century Aluminum Company Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Matt, and I'll your moderator for today's call [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to pass the conference over to our host, Chad Rigg, Vice President of Finance and Treasurer.

Chad Rigg

Analyst

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the fourth quarter conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD. Turning to Slide 2. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in today's discussion. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, Chad. Thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today with a discussion of Century's leading position in the American aluminum market, including exciting developments on our Oklahoma smelter partnership with EGA and the redevelopment of the Hawesville site into an AI digital infrastructure campus. I'll then review our Q4 operational performance, including good news on the timing of the restart of Line 2 at Grundartangi before concluding my initial remarks with a review of the outstanding global market conditions that we are operating in today. Pete will then walk you through our Q4 results and Q1 outlook. Before I conclude the call with a discussion on the significant tailwinds we see for the company in 2026, including our Mt. Holly expansion project. No company is more dedicated to U.S. aluminum production than Century. Century is already the largest producer of aluminum in the United States, smelting nearly 60% of the country's primary aluminum, employing more American primary aluminum workers than any other company, and thanks to President Trump's leadership and the Section 232 program, we plan to invest billions more in new and expanded production at Mt. Holly and our Oklahoma smelter project. This has all been enabled by President Trump and the administration's policies, including the Section 232 program, which continues to be enforced with no exceptions and no exemptions. This sacred program has leveled the playing field for American aluminum producers and workers. And now for the first time in a generation, is leading to the reshoring of production of this critical mineral and a new modern smelter in Oklahoma. Century is grateful to President Trump for his leadership and we intend to continue to invest in America as the largest supplier of this critical mineral in the United States for decades to come. To this end,…

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Thank you, Jesse. I will start by outlining our year-end financial results and cash flow. I'll then address the timing of cash flows from the business interruption losses in Iceland, followed by a discussion of proceeds from Hawesville, including our joint venture stake in the new data center project. Finally, I'll provide our Q1 outlook and highlight key expectations for the full year 2026. Let's turn to Slide 8 and review our Q4 performance. On a consolidated basis, fourth quarter shipments totaled approximately 140,000 tons, a decrease from the prior quarter due to the line loss in Iceland. Net sales for the quarter were $634 million, a $2 million increase sequentially, primarily due to higher realized LME and Midwest premium, partially offset by lower shipments. For the quarter, we reported net income of $1.8 million or $0.02 per share. Our adjusted net income was $128 million or $1.25 per share, excluding exceptional items. Exceptional items mainly comprised of adjustments for share-based compensation, unrealized losses on derivative contracts, business interruption losses in Iceland and the impact of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $171 million, primarily attributable to higher LME and regional premiums as well as improved operating expenses and increased volume at Mt. Holly from Q3 levels. During the quarter, we continued to strengthen our balance sheet. We ended the period with a cash balance of $134 million. As previously communicated, the proceeds from the refinancing of senior notes were utilized to fully repay the remaining Iceland casthouse facility debt in Q4, further simplifying our capital structure and reducing net debt to $421 million. Now let's turn to Page 9, and I'll provide a breakdown of adjusted EBITDA results from Q3 to Q4. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter increased $70 million to $171 million. Realized…

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, Pete. Century has an exciting 2026 ahead of us. Strong demand conditions, combined with fundamentally short U.S. and European markets have created large global aluminum deficits and historically low inventory levels. This environment creates a unique opportunity for Century to be able to add production in a market that is otherwise becoming increasingly short. In Europe, our improved restart time line in Iceland should enable Grundartangi to supply additional metal units into a rising EDPP environment caused by the initial implementation of CBAM, and production shortfalls in both Zambique and elsewhere. In the U.S., our Mt. Holly restart project is on track to increase U.S. aluminum production by nearly 10% in 2026. The project is progressing on time and on budget, and we expect to begin restarting production in April and to be complete by the end of June. We've already hired over 100 incremental workers who are undergoing training to support the additional production and preparation in the pot lines and other areas of the plant are well advanced. Combined with our Oklahoma smelter project, no one is investing more in American primary aluminum than Century. We are proud to follow President Trump's lead and to do our part to reindustrialize the U.S. and restore American aluminum expertise and support American workers. It's hard not to peek forward to this summer, where for the first time in over a decade, all of Century's assets will be operating at full production capacity. These units have never been more needed and valuable than in today's resource-constrained world. Our new and existing production will benefit from strong spot aluminum prices flowing through our contractual lags, driving higher realized prices than we have seen at any point in 2025 or year-to-date. At the same time, our total cost structure should be improved as the addition of the TG4 power turbine at Jamalco will be complete, lowering Jamalco energy costs and U.S. power prices should have returned to normal following winter storm Fern. 2026 is setting up to be a historic year for Century, and we are laser-focused on execution to benefit from the opportunities that are in front of us. Thanks for your time, and we look forward to taking your questions today.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question is from the line of Nick Giles with B. Riley.

Nick Giles

Analyst

Guys congrats on getting the Hawesville done deal with say a leading player like TeraWulf, that was really good to see. My first question, maybe just to clarify, one, the Q1 guide to $15 million to $235 million, that does add back to EBITDA that would have been recognized from Grundartangi, correct?

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Nick, it's Pete. That's correct. Similar to how we did on the last call. We are adding back the loss margin at Grundartangi and including that here in our guide. So no further adjustments are required.

Nick Giles

Analyst

Okay. Great. Great. Appreciate that. Maybe a broader question. Metal tariffs seem well intact here. Midwest premium remains at record high. So it's nice to see you guys continue to benefit from this. But investors really have varying views of whether tariffs hold, where MWP goes? So my question is, can you just give us a sense of earnings power, not only in the current environment, but maybe other price environments? And what this means for your capital allocation approach?

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Yes. Thanks, Nick. It's Pete again. And it's a great question. As we did on Page 11, we gave you what that $215 million to $235 million gets you from a realized price perspective. And you may have saw in our appendix on Page 18, we included our sensitivities for the major inputs for our business. But just a quick highlights to point out again, referencing Page 11, if you look at our realized LME in that guide of $2,850 per ton. And you sort of marked it to spot price today, LME is around $3,100 a ton. That's about a $250 per ton increase and you can use the sensitivity to see what that mark is. And continuing on the revenue side, Midwest, again, we used $0.97 per pound in our guide on a realized basis today, it's about $1.04 per pound and that increase will also equate to an uplift in Midwest. And there is a little bit of an uptick in EDPP, the European Duty-Paid Premium, we used the $315 million per expectation on the guide. I think spot price today is around $365 per ton. So that's another $50 per ton. So for the 3 major revenue components, again, if you took our midpoint of our guide of $225 million. I think that's just a little bit over $50 million, $5-0 million of uplift when you mark the 3 revenue components to spot. And then don't forget, we had the winter storm Fern impact in the first quarter already behind us with temperatures already moderating. But as you see here, again, on Page 11, we had an Indiana hub for Sebree power price of around $69 estimated. I think if you look at where we are today, it's February 19, we have a good idea of where we are in Q1 and just assume a forward for the balance of Q1 and maybe the forward price looking into Q2, it's about $40 on the screen. So that's about a $30 improvement in Indiana Hub power price, and that sensitivity is going to be just over $20 million. So sorry, long-winded answer, but just to sum it up for you, in revenue and in power combined, that's about a $75 million uplift from our midpoint if you're taking the guide of $225 million to spot.

Nick Giles

Analyst

That's super helpful. I really appreciate that. Maybe my next question, just you're making progress in Oklahoma, good to hear, Bechtel is involved. Obviously, 1 of the key aspects will be an energy contract. I think in your initial press release, you used the word progressing. So I was curious if there's anything you can share on that front? How would you expect that asset to compare to energy costs in the rest of your portfolio? Anything you can add on that process would be really helpful.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure, Nick, it's Jesse. And obviously, we're super excited about the Oklahoma project, super excited to be joining with EGA in that joint venture and really -- I think there's a bright future ahead for that project and what's to come. As we mentioned, we are working on finalizing that power contract with EGA and with PSO, who is the power provider, utility in that region. And we've been engaged, making good progress. There's a lot of support from the state, including from Governor Stitt. And so we just really need to do the work there and get where we need to be. In terms of where we end up on the pricing side, I'm not going to give any guidance there. But what I will say is, obviously, for an investment of this size, that power contract needs to be enabling and attractive to make sure that we can get the return on the investment that's required, and that's obviously a key aspect for us and something that we're driving towards with PSO.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from the line of Katja Jancic with BMO.

Katja Jancic

Analyst

Maybe starting on the new smelter. So when you look ahead, what are some of the next milestones beyond the power contracts that we should be looking out for?

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure, Katja. Thanks. So as I said, working with EGA and as we recently announced, we've hired Bechtel to do the engineering work there. So next steps are, finalize that power contract work with Bechtel to finish the next stage of engineering work, finalize our cost and CapEx structure and as you might imagine, there's a number of other work streams there. But those are really the big ones, finalizing that. Our contract working through the final stages of engineering work, making some progress on the financing for the project and working towards making a final investment decision in Q4 of this year.

Katja Jancic

Analyst

And regarding financing options, are you in any discussions with potentially with the government to get or do you qualify for any government type of project level finance beyond the DOE money that you got?

Jesse Gary

Analyst

There are a number of financing options available to us, Katja, some of which are potentially available from the government. So we're working down all those paths simultaneously to find whatever is the most attractive package. But we are excited about the various different options outstanding. We do think they will be attractive in the end. And we just need to do the work to bring those to fruition.

Katja Jancic

Analyst

Maybe just 1 quick one. I don't know if I missed this, but did you tell us what the assumed margin loss in first Q is for the Iceland in the guidance?

Peter Trpkovski

Analyst

Katja, no, I didn't say the number specifically. But as you recall, and I think what you saw in the cash flow [ walk ], we have lost margin of $40 million to $50 million in the fourth quarter. And as the prices continue to rise higher, that could have an impact on that number. So no specific guidance on that, but we're just mainly looking at price changes quarter-to-quarter. And just a reminder, Katja, we did start to get the insurance proceeds to offset that lack of cash margin in the quarter. So we will have the cash in the first quarter, sort of lines up nicely with the Q4 loss margin. And as I said on the call earlier, continue to expect those insurance proceeds to come sort of on a 1- to 2-quarter lag basis.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from the line of Matthew K. with Texas Capital.

Matthew Key

Analyst

I wanted to touch on the outage at Iceland. What type of capacity utilization should we be expecting over the first half of '26 kind of while we wait for the new transformers? I'm just trying to get a sense for shipment cadence out of there.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Yes. So until that Line 2 comes back up, Nick, and you're looking right now Line 1, it's producing about 1/3 of the overall Grundartangi volume. So if you just take our normal run rate of 315,000 to 320,000, I take that as 1/3, that's about where we're getting out of Iceland until Line 2 is back up and running. And then also just keep in mind, in Q2, we're going to be restarting those additional Mt. Holly tons, and so those will come on over the course of that quarter, returning that plant to full production. So really, if you take both Grundartangi and Mt. Holly, take yourself to with respect to Mt. Holly end of June, with respect to Grundartangi, end of July, we should be entering August running at full production, 100% utilization capacity across the smelters.

Matthew Key

Analyst

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And just in regards to the sale of Hawesville and the put option on that data center ownership, do you expect to utilize that ownership or that put option for the ownership to fund the new smelter? Or should we be thinking that -- thinking of that as more of a long-term investment for the company, based on the timing of when those -- both of those projects are expected to come online, I imagine it would be pretty tight window there. But I just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Yes, Matt. I think that it does provide a great liquidity option for us and certainty that we will be able to exit should we so choose. But as you can see and even just using the walk that Pete just did, marking our current outlook to spot, we will be generating significant EBITDA and cash flow just from the regular operation of the business that should be more than sufficient to cover any financing needs that we need for the new Oklahoma smelter over this time period. But -- so we will just continue then to maximize the value of that Hawesville stake in whatever format it needs to be. But the put option is nice because it does give us certainty of exit should we so wish. We actually are very hopeful that, that stake is going to be quite valuable, and we will continue to either hold that if that's what makes the most sense or we can look to sell or exit to a third party as well if that happens to be what makes sense. So we'll just value maximize there over time. But we're excited to own it. I think it's a great way for us to stay a participant in Hawesville and also create -- should hopefully create a lot of value for shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Next question is a follow-up from Nick Giles.

Nick Giles

Analyst

Jesse, on the point of when you start to annualize the Q1 guide, it is a significant amount of EBITDA and cash flow. I know there's a lot of noise in the cash flow statement this year with all that's happening, but you're not really going to be spending a lot of the cash in Oklahoma until I assume 2027 at the earliest. So what do you plan to do with the cash in the meantime? Would you be willing to pay down incremental debt between now and then? Would shareholder returns be on the table? Just appreciate any commentary around timing?

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure, Nick. Thanks. Great question. And obviously, on Slide 22 of the appendix, we do have our capital allocation slide, and you have our capital allocation targets. Now as Pete mentioned, in Q1, we should achieve those targets. And as you just said, we should be generating significant cash flow. So we always have the capability to pay down debt. We'll run down and continue to fund our organic CapEx as we have those opportunities. Good examples there, Mt. Holly Restart or TG4 at Jamalco, and we'll continue to be opportunistic when looking at M&A. And then if we do have cash left over, we will look at returns to shareholders. And as I laid out on our Q3 call to give you some idea of the type of returns that we might be looking at.

Nick Giles

Analyst

Awesome. Awesome. It's good to hear. Maybe just 1 more while I have you. I'm sure it's more obvious to others than it is to me. But -- can you just talk about the logical alumina supply for Oklahoma? Or just kind of what -- remind us what type of excess capacity that you have at your disposal and we can make our assumptions about where that would go.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Sure. As you know, our current book consists of our own production out of Jamalco, which is a great refinery, great quality of alumina. And so that would be one source that's available. We're also the largest customer of the Gramercy refinery in Louisiana. And we have a number of third-party contracts that we source alumina from. So all of those are potential sources for the new smelter, and we'll work with EGA to determine the best source for the new EX technology there and make sure we're running alumina sources through that maximize the value of that really high-caliber technology we're installing in Oklahoma. But basic answer to your question, Nick, I think there's a number of sources that should be available, including sources within our own control.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are currently no further questions registered. There are no additional questions waiting at this time. So I'll pass the call back to the management team for any closing remarks.

Jesse Gary

Analyst

Thanks, everyone, for joining. Super excited about what 2026 holds for Century and look forward to talking to you all again on the Q1 call. Thanks lot. Bye.

Operator

Operator

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.