Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Jul 24, 2012

$59.08

-0.37%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-5.06%

1 Week

+3.04%

1 Month

+13.66%

vs S&P

+8.63%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the second quarter 2012 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. You will have an opportunity to ask questions after the presentation with instructions being given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Enrique De Anda. Please go ahead, sir.

Enrique De Anda

Management

Thank you, Sarah. Hello everyone and welcome to the conference call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operations, and financial conditions. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could cause actual our results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statements disclosure in today’s slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our website at centuryaluminum.com. I would now like to introduce Michael Bless, Century Aluminum’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Michael Bless

Management

Enrique, thanks very much and thanks to all of you for joining us this afternoon. Enrique and I are here today with Bill Leatherberry and Steve Schneider, our colleagues. We’ve let Shelly Harrison, our colleague who normally joins us on these calls, we've let her take this one off. Shelly is due to have her first baby here within the next couple days and we figured that wasn’t the kind of excitement we needed on this phone call. So Shelly is going to sit this one out. We wish her and her husband, John all the very best and we’re looking forward to having her back obviously after she takes a couple of months off. And with that, let's get started. If you could turn to slide three please. As usual, I’ll give you some highlights of the quarter that just ended and I'll give you a sense of some of the things on which we’ve been working. First and importantly, Hawesville continued to show a significant improvement during the second quarter. Most importantly, the safety performance has been very good. I think it’s worthwhile to note that very soon we will cross an important metric. We will have gone 12 months at the plant, without a lost time accident. That’s obviously an admirable performance and something that we’re celebrating down at Hawesville. The team at Hawesville under the leadership of Dave Whitmore and Sean Byrne have done a terrific job across the operations and we’re proud of them. They’re targeting further improvements in the quarters to come and one of the things that we’ll be working on significantly and about which I’ll talk here in a moment is the power situation at Hawesville. At this point in time to be blunt, the plant is not viable at the current…

Enrique De Anda

Management

Are we ready for questions?

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Kuni Chen with CRT Capital Group. Please go ahead.

Kuni Chen - CRT Capital Group

Analyst

Yeah I think that’s me; it’s Kuni Chen. Just a couple of quick ones you know as you noted on the SG&A front that’s come down very sharply; were there some one-time items you know that’s kind of a sustainable level going forward?

Michael Bless

Management

No one items in there; and well it go up or down at times when we account for incentive comp and things like that that should be around a sustainable level going forward, yes.

Kuni Chen - CRT Capital Group

Analyst

Great, a good job on that. And just as far as Hawesville goes, can you sort of lay out for us how under the current arrangement, the power costs step up from here. You know I think as it stands today that that plant still maybe running near breakeven levels, but what point does that really go into the red for you if aluminum prices stay at these levels and can you talk about your timeframe as far as trying to renegotiate a new agreement?

Michael Bless

Management

:

Kuni Chen - CRT Capital Group

Analyst

Right and it only continues to step up from here, right?

Michael Bless

Management

Correct.

Operator

Operator

Next we go to the line of David Gagliano with Barclays. Please go ahead.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Just a follow-up on that Hawesville question, I thought did I hear you correctly in terms of the -- what exactly did you mean by the 12 month termination notice? Does that impede you from shutting down capacity at Hawesville within the next 12 months or did I miss that?

Michael Bless

Management

We could, no, no. We could certainly shut down capacity, but we have a 12 month notice period to cancel the power contract. So what would happen David perhaps to answer that, what your follow-up might be if we chose, if we had to, we could certainly close down the plant, but we would have to pay a base demand charge, nothing approaching the full cost of the power, but a base demand charge during the tendency of the contracts during that 12 month period.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

And then just unrelated or somewhat unrelated slide seven, I just have a couple of questions related to that slide, it's very helpful I appreciate it. The US second half 2012 cash cost of $2095 per metric tonne, what were the cash cost equivalent number for Q1 and Q2 for the US assets?

Michael Bless

Management

They were pretty close to that estimate, David that you see on the left hand part of the chart. We came in, as we said in those quarters within spitting distance of our expectations?

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Of the 2095 number, correct?

Michael Bless

Management

You got it.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Okay.

Michael Bless

Management

No, no, I am sorry of the number at the left hand part of the chart. So again before the step down here, right.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Okay, so the move from 2240 to 2095 is all second half, right. Just want to make sure.

Michael Bless

Management

Oh I see what you are going. I see what you are saying here. No, no, no, pardon me. Part of that step down was realized in Q1 and Q2, so what you would have to do -- now I understand your question, pardon me. The best way to get at that, my recommendation would be is to look at the -- putting us in the financial statements as you know in the guarantor statements in the back there. You get a pretty good sense of the results in the US versus non-US, in essence Iceland and you can crank that number that you are looking for.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Okay and then just somewhat related. In terms of the Hawesville timeline and just the US assets in general, obviously you mentioned even with the revised numbers here, making money, how should we expect the, this unfold, if aluminum prices stay where they are. [Pipelines] being shut down and/or full asset closures and what would be the pecking order and when should we expect to start happening?

Michael Bless

Management

I mean, that’s, I’m not trying to duck it, David. As you know, that’s a hard question to answer because you have to, when you do that analysis, there is a bunch of inputs. One, obviously is you know, sort of the average price that you expect over the next quarter or two and then you know, how long you expect this current weak period to pervade or if you expect it to get worse and that’s why you don’t see as you know a lot of capacity shutting down now because as we all know, you can use our own example at Ravenswood. These plants are not inexpensive to restart here. As we've said, it’s going to cost us $80 million to $90 million to restart Ravenswood. Now about half of that, as we've said, is working capital. So in essence you get that back out of the system, but half of that is if you will some – I don’t like to use that term, but that’s really what it is, your sunk restart cost. So again not trying to duck, but there is a lot of things that go in there. I can say there is no plant closures right now at Century, but we’re watching this thing very, very closely and like all of our peers are here and will be over the next couple of months.

David Gagliano - Barclays

Analyst

Okay, and then just one last question. If aluminum prices stay flat versus current, will you continue with restarting Ravenswood and will that restart be profitable on an ongoing basis?

Michael Bless

Management

David, it all depends. Based on the -- it’s a great question, thank you. Based on the application that we've submitted to the PSC, to the Public Service Commission, the answer is yes because with the floating rate there, with a variable rate in that application, the special power contract that we’ve submitted, that would allow the plant to operate at LME prices like this. So, it will all depend upon what we hear back from the PSC.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) So we go to the line of Lloyd O'Carroll with Davenport & Company. Please go ahead. Lloyd O'Carroll - Davenport & Company : Yes, talk a little bit more about Hawesville power, it looks from the press release was from the power provider that you are paying roughly [$6] a megawatt hour we know that in ‘14 the EPA for all the coal fired plant that would probably are going to see operating cost go up in the 25% range. So if you do nothing, there’s a big problem, what are your options if you just bought power off the grid and wield it, if you build your own turbines or if you had a contract with an independent power provider ahead gas powered power. Can you talk about any kind of numbers with those options and what if, if we, another way to look at it is what the LME price do you need with your current power contract to get an acceptable return, something that you will be prepared to run the smelter on an ongoing basis?

Michael Bless

Management

Yeah, that’s a good question. I guess, well, let me take it in the order in which you asked and your last question was a great one or part of it, Lloyd. But let me go through in the order that you asked it. So, not to be pedantic here but in answer to your question we are looking at all of those things. And all of those are some short-term, some longer term, potentially things that could benefit and flow through to us. Right now, we have a contract, we have a supplier and a power provider there and we are working with that power provider to see what options are available and thus far those discussions remain constructive, and so that’s what we are very focused on. And we'll remain focused on here until they don’t make sense anymore but we are optimistic. But all those things, one thing you didn’t mention is that, as we all know, coal prices in the US, depending upon where, over the last nine months have fallen pretty significantly. And we yet haven’t seen any flow through of that movement and so you know your analysis was we are where we are plus we are going up based on environmental spending. But we think there should be some relief, all else being equal, nothing else happening structurally just due to the coal prices coming off. But -- so that’s an answer I think Lloyd to the first part of your question which is as of right now we are working, we think constructively with the power provider there. To answer your second question, we don’t think there’s -- we need to get the structure changed irrespective of what our long-term view of the aluminum price is. Even if you look at the consensus here at the market I would say whether whatever it is today 2300, 2400 long-term nominal price. We still think that we need to find some structural changes in that power price in order A, to generate good return for the share owners and B, in order to perpetuate that to be able to have the longevity of view to invest in the plant. If you are asking about a breakeven, you know it is a couple of hundred bucks now, $200 plus from where we are, may be a little bit less than that. We brought the breakeven in the company down in a couple of hundred dollars here over the last year and a half but we are ways away from that plant even breaking even at this point in time and at this power price. Lloyd O'Carroll - Davenport & Company : And you are not in the business of breaking even?

Michael Bless

Management

Not the last time I checked, no.

Operator

Operator

Next we got to the line of Richard Garchitorena with Credit Suisse.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Analyst

So, yeah, my first question, I was just wondering if you could remind us what your current budget is for CapEx, I know in the past years, highlighted maintenance CapEx of about $20 million. The Nordural expansion if there's additional CapEx through rest of the year, if mill prices stay the same and we assume no restarts this year what should we expect for run rate?

Michael Bless

Management

Yeah, that's a good question. So, our budget right now for the second half of the year is looking at an additional say $25-ish million of CapEx. We could, I mean that includes substantial portion of that, and this is all excluding Helguvik now, a substantial portion of that is for the hot metal expansion program at Grundartangi which of course is our best plant and one that's still making good cash flow even at the current LMEs. We could ratchet that number back significantly, I mean in fact have already done the work as you would hope we have done to identify exactly what we would do and so we've got that under pretty tight control. Right now I would say balance of the year $20 million to $25 million for total CapEx excluding Helguvik but we've got some leeway there to decrease that by a good amount if we had to.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Analyst

I just wanted to touch on the Century Anodes I guess, you mentioned that you are monitoring the current situation, I guess, globally and with prices where they are. How should we think about, where, what level of pricing or it more just a function of how the global economy is progressing in terms of restart or not? And then if you don’t have restart right away, I guess, are there costs associated with maintaining that facility?

Michael Bless

Management

Last question first is no, none at all that. All the activity going on at that facility now is attendant to the restart and if the world were in a position by the end of the summer, it’s by the end of the summer based on our engineering pert charts that we’re going to have to make decision as to whether it cuts some reasonably large capital commitments or not. If the world isn't better then we’re going to have to make a sound decision. So it’s a no further costs because there is no other activity other than the restart at the plant. And the answer to your first part of your question, it's difficult to answer. Long-term, that’s going to be a very good investment. And as I said, we got the ability to crank up production or take from our investee, BHH in China. If we decide to go a bit slower on the Century Anodes restart. So it’s going to be a bit of a judgment call here to say, towards the end of August, going into September.

Richard Garchitorena - Credit Suisse

Analyst

Okay, then my last question, just on the 150,000 tonnes of initial production, how should we think about the potential cost savings from that and how much of anode I guess needs that cover for Grundartangi?

Michael Bless

Management

Good question. So let me maybe tweak a little bit of what you said at the beginning. Perhaps I misunderstood you. So the final capacity will be 150,000 tonnes. The first stage here about which we’re talking the $45 million is to put in the environmental treatment system, do a bunch of other things and then just bring back one of the two furnaces. It’s got two furnaces, each of which produce 75,000 tons of baked anode and so that first part would be 75 and then eventually, we spent another $15 million to refurbish the second furnace which would give us 150,000 tons. Just to give you a sense, a 150,000 would just about satisfy today, pardon me, Grundartangi’s requirements, but of course we have a significant portion of our supply, we get from BHH as well. And so I mean the way you ought to think about it right now is that the supply that we get from BHH in conjunction with that first furnace restart at Century Anodes would basically take care of Grundartangi and then the restart of the second furnace at Century Anodes is most likely linked to Helguvik.

Operator

Operator

Next we go to Tim Hayes with Davenport. Please go ahead.

Tim Hayes - Davenport

Analyst

Two quick ones; the LCM impact, is that just in the U.S. or was that some of that in Iceland?

Michael Bless

Management

No, that would be strictly in the U.S.

Tim Hayes - Davenport

Analyst

Okay, and then the conversion cost that’s shown on slide six; I am assuming that’s ex the impact of the LCM?

Michael Bless

Management

Yes, because whenever we show conversion cost it’s always only cash.

Operator

Operator

We go to the line of John Tumazos with Very Independent Research. Please go ahead.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

It would be a little bit academic, thank you. But Mr. Mittal of Mittal Steel is asking the steel workers for his company to roll back $28 an hour and it may be the end of retiree medical in the USW contract or the start of it and I don’t know how those negotiations end up; it could be the end of defined benefit pension for new employees. Could you just review when your labor contracts expire and is there any applicability of that strategy; it would seem like the aluminum price is relatively well and the aluminum inventories are high; workers might prefer to make concessions than have some one (inaudible) cut plant, shut smelters in Tennessee and Texas without trying to get tube shale gas or labor concessions or things like that. Maybe the workers think half of their compensation is better than no compensation maybe given a chance?

Michael Bless

Management

Yes sure, John very reasonable questions. So just the factual answer to your question, you know you are talking about Hawesville here given that there is no labor contract at Ravenswood and as you know Mt. Holly is not represented, so at Hawesville as you remember we signed a five year agreement with USW last time so that goes through April of 2015. So we got a long way to run there. We did negotiate last time the kind of things that you are talking about not to get into the detail, but given that we’ve got a contract right now that runs a couple of years, we are focused and given the input of the cost here we are very focused on power at Hawesville.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

It would seem like metal is one-sixth or so of the steel industry and one-third or so of the unionized steel industry in raw numbers. Do you think the potential exist to leverage off of that for the aluminum industry to completely change its labor?

Michael Bless

Management

John, I’ll answer it as straight as I can, I have absolutely no idea.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

I am just wishing and hoping for something to go right.

Michael Bless

Management

I hear you; we will take the support, but I just -- I honestly don’t know I would rather take a pass to that one.

John Tumazos - Very Independent Research

Analyst

I know I am putting you on the spot. Thank you

Michael Bless

Management

Okay, that’s your job.

Operator

Operator

Next we go to the Sal Tharani with Goldman Sachs & Company. Please go ahead. Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs & Company: And Mike on your cash cost, the one you have gave in February or the kind of one; can you just back up your different plans where do they stand in terms of Mt. Holly and Hawesville and where would the balance would be I mean highest to the lowest?

Michael Bless

Management

I am sorry Sal, I may not have, see you are asking that the rest of the cash costs? Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs & Company: No I am just saying that which is the highest and the lowest in those three operations?

Steve Schneider

Analyst

Oh of our operations on the cost curve? Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs & Company: Yes.

Steve Schneider

Analyst

Yes of course; so well Grundartangi of course, as you know Grundartangi floats based on power price, but certainly Grundartangi today at the current power price and even at the current metal price and even at higher metal prices would be further of the last and then would come Mt. Holly and then would come Hawesville and then ratings were difficult to say because we don’t have power rate right now, but certainly at the old power rate it would further to the right; what we are hoping to do is obviously have that slide like Grundartangi, but that remains to be seen. Sal Tharani - Goldman Sachs & Company: So you mentioned that how you really if you decide to shut it down, you do need a 12 month notice and you may end up paying the electricity cost on the base load, are you losing more money than what you have to pay per pound if that would the case?

Steve Schneider

Analyst

No, not now, no.

Operator

Operator

We don't have any additional questions at this time. Please continue.

Michael Bless

Management

I think that's it for now. We again appreciate everybody joining us and we look forward to speaking with you again if not before in October. Take care.