Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q3 2010 Earnings Call· Tue, Oct 26, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the third quarter 2010 earnings conference call. At this time, all phone lines are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session with instructions given at that time. (Operator instructions) As a reminder, today’s conference call is being recorded. And with that, I would now like to introduce your opening speaker for today, Shelly Lair. Please go ahead.

Shelly Lair

Management

Thank you, Doug. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the conference call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that today’s discussion will contain forward-looking statements related to future events and expectations, including our expected future financial performance, results of operations, and financial condition. These forward-looking statements involve important known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in our forward-looking statements. Please review the forward-looking statement disclosure in today’s slides and press release for a full discussion of these risks and uncertainties. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today’s presentation and on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. I’d now like to introduce Logan Kruger, Century’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Shelly. Thank you for all for joining us today. We had a perfect quarter in an environment of slowly improving market and business conditions. I’d like to make a few brief introductory comments before speaking in more about the market. So let’s turn to slide number four. We have now working this consistent improvement of the last few quarters in many regions of the world. As I’ll detail in the next few slides, the BRIC countries and other regions in Asia are continuing the lead the way. In the U.S. and Europe, slow growth seems to have settled in with significant disparity in performance amongst end markets. On the supply side, production coming on stream outside of China and India, during the next few years, if limited generally to a few projects, mostly in the Persian Gulf. Marginal amounted in the developed world continued to be at risk to the aluminum price on a short-term basis, but more importantly, the power price and the availability of power over the long-term. In China in particular, the supply side environment has become quite interesting. We believe that central authorities are, this time quite serious about reigning in the growth of finding aluminum business. As you know the twin issues of the power costs and the availability on the one hand and the environmental commitments and concerns on the other are driving this besides of behavior. In addition to limiting future growth, they have targeted inefficient existing capacity for closure and appear to be intense on forcing these actions too. Wayne will make detailed comments about our operations, so I’ll simply hit a few highlights here. We are very pleased to have a tentative four-year labor agreement at Hawesville. It has been agreed by the Union Leadership and its pending ratification by…

Wayne Hale

Management

Thanks Logan. Let’s turn to slide number eight. At Grundartangi as I reported to you in July, the rectifier which has been removed from operation and was being returned from repair up to the plant suffered significant damage in transit from Norway. The cause of the damage was a combination of turbulences and the size of the ship being used for transport. The transformer remains on schedule to be back in service towards the end of the first quarter of 2011. All elements to assure a safe return to Iceland have been catered for including a significantly larger and a more robust shipping vessel. Consistent with our expectations, this event impacted production in the third quarter and will do more the same during the next several months. Mike will provide detail on the product statistics. As Logan noted earlier, during this period all elements of plant operation have met expectations. Regarding the agreement with the United State workers at Hawesville, the new contract is pending ratification by the membership. We expect the result of the vote at the end of the week. I will not comment on the contract details, other than to say that it’s four years in duration and provides a solid labor cost foundation for the plant. Looking at the bigger picture, the labor contract is only one item of a multi-element program we are progressing at Hawesville. All are targeted to significantly reduce Hawesville’s cash operating cost. And the programs are focused to increase throughput, improve efficiency, and to reduce cost. Most projects are pure efficiency improvements while some will require modest capital investment. We will continue to implement this – later this quarter, and will provide you with details and expected benefits during our next call. At Mt. Holly, we continue to make progress including…

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks very much, Wayne. We could turn to slide 10 please. Before I go into our results for the quarter, let me just make some comments on the markets. As usual my comments will compare the quarter that just ended to the prior one sequentially, so obviously this quarter Q3 versus Q2. Logan made some comments about the markets. Quickly, the cash LME for the quarter on average Q3 was flat to Q2. However, on a one month lag basis, the cash LME price was down 8%. As you know, most of our sales globally are priced off of one month lag basis, but we do have this one contract here in the U.S. that is priced up on month, month basis. And that contract goes for the remainder of this year. So when you put those two together, and you look at our realizing unit prices, so our realized price our large shipments per metric ton in the U.S., they were down 4%, less than the market down 8% on a lag basis due to that contract. And Iceland realized unit prices per metric ton down 7% so consistent with the market. Turning to volumes, if you had a chance to look at the operating data at the end of the earnings release, you need to make a small adjustment this quarter to compare Iceland versus domestic shipments. For the first time this quarter, we had some sales, a minor portion of our sales of about 5% of the sales and shipments in Iceland reported its direct sales instead of total sales, about 3,100 metric tons. So when you do the math, you’ll see on a volume – from a volume standpoint that domestic shipments were about 3% on an actual basis that equates to about up 2% on…

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Mike. I think just one comment before I’d say few things on Helguvik. Overall we are encouraged by the improvement in the market conditions, but as you know and you saw in our press release we are off going to continue to manage the potential on the downfall and we obviously want to make sure everyone understands that is our strategy but when you look at the market and what’s going on the market we remain somewhat encouraged. We had made progress on the Helguvik project during the last few months. We continue to analyze and opted the capital expenditures estimate for the Phase I and I’ve confidence in our ability to deliver the project at that level all better. While onsite activity is at a modest level, we continue to talk with suppliers and make progress on engineering and other activities. As Mike has explained, the debt financing is closed to completion, pending the finalization of the power arrangement. The power situation continues to be conflict and frankly the progress has been slower than we would have expected. As you know in 2007, we signed power contracts with two principal geothermal power providers in Iceland. These people also and these countries also supplied power to the Grundartangi facility. It goes without fame that in Iceland in general and the power suppliers in particular, has experienced significant changes on platform. And in that context, we are negotiating certain amendments to the contracts. All parties, ourselves and the power suppliers have made significant investments in this project and thus we believe it is only a matter of time until we reach agreement. However, these are decades of long contracts of power. The plant’s largest operating cost, so we believe it is worth the delay in our preferred schedule to get them right. Lastly I would note that the economic activity of this project and the operating smelter will bring, is a key to Iceland’s economic recovery and community and the public support for this project is increasing. With that, I’d like to take some questions. Thanks, Doug.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Brett Levy with Jefferies & Company. Please go ahead. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Hey guys, at Mt. Holly I think up until this point you’ve talked about major business issues, performance issues et cetera and now you’ve got a new management team in there addressing all of these issues. I’ve never really got my sense as to what exactly the issue has been. Can you talk about what the problem was and what the fix is going to be?

Wayne Hale

Management

Certainly. This is Wayne. Basically the problem started with a familiar of cathodes and in an ability to replace those cells in the appropriate timeframe with additional stock of cathode blocks. And so, as a result the management and others worked hard to find additional supply but we’re unable to and as a result there was significant times where there was sell – sells out that could not be put back in. So as a result the tonnage at that smelter was not as expected. However, as a result of the increased work and dedication at the facility, there is sufficient cathode blocks now in supply and they’re running at the full capacity and as you would expect, the operational performance is now nearing the expectation.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Brett. You need any others? Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Yeah. Is there any sort of prior to this whole transformer issue at Grundartangi? Is there any business interruption insurance? Is there any – is there anyway of recapturing any of the lost EBITDA here?

Mike Bless

Management

Absolutely, Brett. It’s Mike. So there is most definitely business interruption insurance under our policy. It’s got a small deductible $0.5 million or so. It’s obviously only kicks in due to the maritime accident, so the first chunk I’ll say when the unit sales and descendants in Norway that’s for our account. The chunk, we are in the process of working on a claim, obviously the carrier was notified, I mean, if the incidents have placed at sea. So that’s a long way that answers your question. Yes absolutely. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: All right. And this is admittedly a lazy question.

Wayne Hale

Management

Those are of its kind. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Okay, to do the math for me. What’s the total impact of this transformer problem and how much of that is going to get back in insurance side?

Wayne Hale

Management

Well, I mean, you have to obviously, BR replaces lost profits and so here is the way to attack it. From the time of the incident, which was weighing over the summer in July was it?

Mike Bless

Management

Yeah.

Wayne Hale

Management

July. As I told you it’s just about 400 tons a month of lost production. Then you would to calculate your claim, multiply that by the perhaps the cash operating profit or gross profit in the plant of those lost tons. It’s a bit of a difficult one we don’t provide you, sort of marginal cost, but you can take a swipe at it by going back to the data that we showed you in February, it’s still on the website there back from the, I think back in February looking at the… Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: $0.50 a pound?

Wayne Hale

Management

Sorry? Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: $0.50 a pound of margin?

Wayne Hale

Management

I’m not going to add – Brett you got to calculate what the aluminum price was for the time. So, I got to ask you to be a little less lazy but I’ve given you the building blocks. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Okay, I appreciated that.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks Brett. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: All right. And then, in terms of the situation at Ravenswood, how close are you guys to kind of the finish line? Would you describe yourself at this time optimistic? Is there a still lot of gap between where you guys all with the power supplier in the union distributed, you gave a little bit sort of sense as to how close to the finish line you might be there?

Logan Kruger

Management

Yeah, before I ask – it’s Logan. Before I ask Mike – Wayne to comment Brett, I think really its – we’re working on two major pieces and both of them require a lot of negotiation and agreement. There is two parts, one is the power enabling of encouraging contract and that obviously requires a lot of input from a number of various different parties. And the part is obviously as you are aware, we’re in contract negotiations and that’s where the steel work is. Wayne anything else?

Wayne Hale

Management

Thank you. You hit the major points Logan. Certainly we are in active discussions with both the power supplier and the Union Leadership to progress those major issues. And I think we can be optimistic that we’ll get these both concluded.

Logan Kruger

Management

I think in terms of timing which is the other part of your question. It’s difficult to spread apart that above that. I think once we get closer to a sense that we can achieve those two objectives then I think we can put some timing around it. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Thanks very much guys.

Wayne Hale

Management

Thanks Brett.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mark Liinamaa with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: All right, good evening everybody. Logan let’s made your comments, you sound a little more constructive of inventory financing deals and potentially and EPS can provide sustainable support to prices relative to comments I’ve heard you made in the past. Is that a fair characterization or what changed your view?

Logan Kruger

Management

Yeah, I think it’s a number of things Mark. Thanks for the question. I think we are seeing a bit more constructive as you used optimism in the market and I think it’s a whole number of things. Businesses are starting to move forward. People are starting to make more demands and I think Wayne mentioned about cable and rod, as we’ve seen that market as well. The financing deals continue to roll forward from what we can see and what we know and I’ve got the potential of an EPS and there’s a lot of debate about EPS which are aware, but at least we see that will put us – put in one side or one pocket, a fair amount of commodity material, alumina. And then as you’ve seen the alumina inventories, they’ve not grown they’ve come off a bit maybe 150,000 tons over the last 12. And China and India now that continue to grow. So adding also the restrictions in China, some of which seem to quite serious now and you’ve seen that as well, and so a number of China’s production for this year of 50 million tons, I think that’s a bit low. But all of that adds up to a changing collateral scope of picture, if you wish to use that, in the market. And so I’m a bit more constructive, encouraged and I may have been six months. And from the management of the company, obviously we will manage to look at the downside. But I think from the market point of view, Mark, certainly there is a different lack in the room. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Okay. Thanks for that. And then, just quickly on the Helguvik project. Can you put any more color, it sounds like you’re going to holdout for the best power contract or what you feel you need? Can you put any more detail around what you think you need?

Logan Kruger

Management

I think we clearly have ideas and there are contractual arrangements to bring this to some sort of conclusion as you know. So I would like to get ahead of ourselves in these discussions with our partners. What I was trying to do at the end was, say that all the partners have significant interest in this project going ahead and we believe we will get to an end point in the settlement. Secondly, I think there is a growing knowledge and support of those projects, imagine from a large number of areas, local communities and the public in general. I’ll give you, perhaps the statistic you can bear in mind when you think about this. This project over a period of say developed five, six years would add somewhere between 1.5 to 2 percentage points of GDP growth to Iceland per year. So if you think about it, it’s quite a significant impact. So I can’t give you the details but certainly we’re working very strongly on this and we haven’t bear in mind that there has been a lot of challenges in Iceland both politically and commercially for everyone. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Thanks. Good luck.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks Mark.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Research. Please go ahead. John Tumazos – John Tumazos Very Independent Research: Good evening congratulations on keeping everything together through a couple of tough years. It’s a little remarkable that new arrangements have been made smoothly at Hawesville. And the Ravenswood issues are still playing out in a sense that times are hard and you would think that the employees in West Virginia and power officials would be doing their best, straighten things out clear that that so to speak. Are you able to shed any light on the last remaining points on the table?

Logan Kruger

Management

Right. I think its early days. There is a lot of discussions going on these continuous meetings – John its Logan and I know if Wayne wants to comment. That’s work a dragon suite for both the power and the labor discussions. So we don’t generally comment about these even at Hawesville, but what Wayne was clear that we would only comment that was a four-year contract, these are about coming out at the end of the week. So I don’t know. Wayne is there anything else you want to add to that?

Wayne Hale

Management

No, I think you’ve hit it again that, Logan. We’re working diligently on these issues and we expect to bring that to conclusion. John Tumazos – John Tumazos Very Independent Research: So it just seems like times are hard and the people ought to be thanked for preserving the business.

Logan Kruger

Management

John, really we don’t take any comment on that where you comment and… John Tumazos – John Tumazos Very Independent Research: Good luck, thank you.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, John.

Wayne Hale

Management

Thanks, John.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) Our next question is from Tim Hayes with Davenport & Company. Tim Hayes – Davenport & Company: Hey, good afternoon.

Logan Kruger

Management

Hi, Tim.

Wayne Hale

Management

Hi, Tim. Tim Hayes – Davenport & Company: Just couple of question. On the one contract that’s on a prompt month, and that you said it was going to end at the – at the end of the year. When – is that going to be – when that gets renewed or how do you replace that? Is that going to still be on a prompt month basis in ‘11 or might that be on a one month lag?

Wayne Hale

Management

It could Tim. It could be either of those. We don’t know yet. We’re not concerned about the sales volume that’s the easy part. As that was priced yet on, we’ll let you know obviously once it gets finalized. Hard to tell at this point, it’s a detailed item. It’s one of those last minute, sort of, negotiation items. Tim Hayes – Davenport & Company: Yeah, okay. And then the 5% of sales out of Iceland that’s now direct sales. Is that something that is going to be – are we going to get direct sales going forward even if it’s a small percentage?

Logan Kruger

Management

I think it’s part of the contractual arrangements on the toweling and one of the options in some of the toweling contract is a they’re just an option and we obviously want to use the opportunity to continue to maximize the value of the plant. So we’ve purchased on alumina and obviously had direct metal sales.

Wayne Hale

Management

Worked very well. Slightly different but it’s a small portion of our business. I thought to say whether that option will be continued. We’ll see. Tim Hayes – Davenport & Company: I guess, some of this quick at it. At extreme (inaudible) what will be the possibility or what’s possible in terms of the outside for direct sales? Could they reach 10, 20% in their and will it extreme part of the downturn?

Wayne Hale

Management

No, the level – I’ve said about 5%, Tim. That’s the option level. So it’s not going to get much higher than that. Tim Hayes – Davenport & Company: Okay. All right thank you that helps.

Wayne Hale

Management

Sure. Thanks, Tim.

Operator

Operator

And speakers at this, we have no additional questions in our queue. Please continue.

Logan Kruger

Management

Right. Thanks very much, Doug. Thanks very much for those were on for their time and I appreciate you listening to our call. Thank you.