Earnings Labs

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

Q1 2009 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 21, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Century Aluminum Company First Quarter 2009 Earnings call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator instructions) And as a reminder, today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Shelly Lair. Please go ahead.

Shelly Lair

Management

Thank you, Art. Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the conference call. For those of you joining us by telephone, this presentation is being webcast on the Century Aluminum website, www.centuryaluminum.com. Please note that website participants have the ability to advance their own slides. The following presentation, accompanying press release, and comments, includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to future events and expectations and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Century’s actual results or actions may differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, and we assume no obligation to update these statements. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. For risks related to these forward-looking statements, please review Annex A and our periodic SEC filings, including the risk factors and management’s discussion and analysis sections on our latest annual report and quarterly report. I'd now like to introduce Logan Kruger, Century’s President and Chief Executive Officer.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thank you, Shelly. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for joining us. We have been very busy on many fronts. All of our efforts are focused on preserving the value of your company and we welcome the opportunity to report to you on our progress. So let’s get started on slight number four. I will address the market in more detail over the following slides. So let me just provide context here by saying we have not as yet seen many concrete signs of improvement in the end markets either in North America or around the world. There are some signs out that particularly from China that could indeed indicate stabilization or at the very least, a significant slowing to the decline. Yet until we see more evidence it’s difficult to gain much confidence at this time. Bottom line, the industry remains in an over-supplied position. We do not believe it’s prudent for producers to plan that improving demand will solve the problem any time in the near term. In the shadow of this very difficult business environment, I could not be more proud of how our employees have performed. It is during such times as we are experiencing at the moment that effective performance is even more critical. Most importantly, the safety performance at the smelters has been very good, especially in the face of full curtailment at Ravenswood and the one line curtailment at Hawesville. It is during these times such as that we sometimes forget about the bedrock principles like safety. These principles should not be trivialized. Our employees have proven their commitment and I want to thank them more. The curtailments have been handled efficiently and at or near the targeted costs. Wayne will provide more details when he talks with you and will discuss the…

Wayne Hale

Management

Thanks, Logan. Let’s turn to slide 10. Looking across the operations, Ravenswood saw a significant change during the quarter. After closing one potline in December, we made the difficult but necessary decision to curtail the entire plant in February. The process was completed by mid-month. Adding my thoughts to Logan’s comments, it is during these challenging financial times that unfortunate decisions must be made. Our employees at Ravenswood acted in a safe and professional manner to efficiently curtail the plant. My thanks to Jim Chapman and his entire team for managing the curtailment effectively. We’re now operating the plant in a care and maintenance mode with a support staff of around 28 People. This number will be reduced over the next couple of months by another four to five as some of the service and support work concludes. The contract with the United Steelworkers expired at the end of May and we are now working with the union leadership to commence the usual formal bargaining process. We look forward to be the new contract being an enabler to win its time to consider restarting the plant. Moving on to Hawesville, we curtailed Line 5 in early March. The plant is now operating efficiently at an annual capacity of around 200,000 metric tons per year. We are in discussions with our customers and suppliers to ascertain if and when the curtailment of additional capacity is feasible and makes economic sense. At this point, I can say there appears to be benefit to curtailing an additional potline. This is being considered for some time in the near future and if completed, would represent an additional 50,000 ton reduction. The new power contract for Hawesville continue to move somewhat circuitously to completion. The parties are in the process of satisfying the conditions of…

Mike Bless

Management

First before diving into the financial results, just talk about the market movements quarter-to-quarter, as usual I will make all my comments comparing the quarter just ended to the prior quarter, so Q1 over Q4. In that period, the cash LME price – average cash LME price declined 26% Q4 to Q1, on a one-month lag, the cash price was up 35%, and as you know, many of our revenues in some of the cost price on a one-month lag. So one-month lag, LME down 35%. Our realized average price is a weighted average global result for us, it down 32% in that context. Turning to shipment volumes, you can see the data at the end of the financial information after the earnings release. Domestic volumes were obviously down significantly, Wayne has described that obviously due to the curtailments. Volumes in Iceland down 2% sequentially on a reported basis, but on a per day basis flat. There were two less days in Q1 than they were in Q4. And as you’ve had a chance to look at the numbers, Grundartangi again shipped at an average annualized rate of 276,000 tons, obviously compared to the 260,000 ton rated capacity, that's a terrific result and we continue to be very, very gratified with it. So based on those data, the change in sales in – in price and in volume, net sales as you can see on the slide here, quarter-to-quarter, up 44%. Now if you go back to the financial information, let's walk down the income statement, I will call up the major items here. Gross profit, as you can see, up $10 million sequentially on a sales change or decrease sequentially of $178 million. Couple of comments on that result, it might look a little strange at the context. Price…

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Mike. We like all industry participants continue to look at the data as carefully as we can, both daily moments and any trends we can discern. There are some hopeful signs, chief perhaps among them the recent level of activity in the broad economy in China. However, we do not believe the industry is yet imbalanced and risks remain even on the supply side as for instance capacity is rumored to be poised to restart in China. We continue to believe the industry cannot declare itself finished with its supply response. The fast effect that our participation has been amongst the most aggressive in any industry participants we will continue to do our part. We are working diligently with the appropriate party to find ways to meaningfully lower the company's near-term cash burn and thus preserve value for the longer term. None of these discussions is easy as they all involve other parties with their own interest and requirements. We have added significantly to our cash position as Mike has described and we will continue to analyze ways to enhance the company’s liquidity profile in a way that benefits our shareholders. With that, we’ll return to your questions. Operator, we are ready now to take questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator instructions) Our first question comes from Kuni Chen with Banc of America. Please go ahead. Kuni Chen – Banc of America: Hi, good day everybody.

Mike Bless

Management

Hi, Kuni. Kuni Chen – Banc of America: I guess just first question on working capital. How much more do you think you can ring out going forward through the balance of this year?

Mike Bless

Management

– :

Logan Kruger

Management

Kuni Chen – Banc of America: Okay, got you. And basically, that Ravenswood curtailment, $30 million to $35 million that flows through the other operating cost line through the balance of the year?

Mike Bless

Management

No. Yes and No. I mean, that line there – what you saw on that line this quarter again was a $35 million charge of which only $6 million was in cash. We’ve already recognized, again a residual – all other things being equal, $29 million of expense. You won’t see come to – those are already on the balance sheet. So, when we pay the cash, it will just see the reduction in those balance sheet liabilities and you’ll see the cash going out on the cash flow statement if you will. Kuni Chen – Banc of America: I got you. Okay, and then just last question. On Helguvik, looks like a couple of things are percolating there. Just hoping you could give us some color on what’s happening there. It looks like you’re working on some non-recourse financing. Maybe you could just give us a sense as to sort of what the investment in a smaller phase one might look like? Do you retain basically a 100% equity stake in the project going forward, if you could just kind of talk to some of those issues?

Logan Kruger

Management

Yes. Kuni, let me just take it. I think first of all, just to make sure we all understand the major work on the project was curtailed and we’ve reviewed the project and that full review will be ready in the second half. As you would expect, we will continue to look at ways of financing this project and I don’t think it’s appropriate (inaudible) to comment now on what that may or may not bring other than commentary we said right at the beginning that it would be a non-recourse type of funding. Secondly, we’ve split the project into four phases, each one about 90,000 tons and until we’ve done a sufficient work I don’t believe that we should comment on what the capital estimates are, but we should note that obviously with commodity prices and construction costs coming down that we are seeing and we expect to see some reduction in that. So, I think I’ve covered all the – all your points. In terms of the others on the ownership and those sort of things, as a matter of policy we wouldn’t comment on it. Mike?

Mike Bless

Management

Yes. Let me just say one further thing before we let Kuni go here. Steve Schneider, our Chief Accounting Officer, who is here in the room with us, reminds me that the ongoing costs at Ravenswood for the curtailment, those that we didn’t reserve this quarter, will indeed flow through those lines. I mean, the costs that we recognize have already been recognized on those lines, you want to see those again of course on the income statement. But new costs every quarter, those that we can’t recognize now under accounting rules FAS 5 Liability Recognition or whatever, those will every quarter flow through those lines, but you’ll them every quarter on that line.

Logan Kruger

Management

Last piece on Helguvik, Kuni, is just that we have got a engineering teams, very small, working on the re-look at those projects and a very limited on-site work. I think Wayne commented and Mike commented on this well. Very low level, very low cost. The good news of course was the Investment Agreement being approved by the Icelandic Parliament just pre the election week. Obviously, that is subject to the European Surveillance Authority’s approval. We think that will come through, it will just take some time. Kuni Chen – Banc of America: I mean, I’m sorry, last question. Do you think potentially you could be in a position to move forward with this project at some point, let’s say over the next 12 months if a financing package gets put together here?

Logan Kruger

Management

I think, Kuni, it’s a good project. We know that it’s competitive, it’s in the right spot, it’s got competitive setup. We would be I think somewhat adventurous to comment at this point of time. We have to do our homework and you know what we like. We will spend the right time on this thing and it’s hard to forecast it in today’s world. We see the world has been pretty tough, but we recognize the value of those project and we recognize the importance of it. And so, it’s important for us to continue to work in this at the right level to see what opportunities there are and the worlds may or may not change, we will see as we go forward. Kuni Chen – Banc of America: Okay, thanks.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks, Kuni.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Kuni.

Operator

Operator

And next, we have the line of David Gagliano with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. David Gagliano – Credit Suisse:

Wayne Hale

Management

Well, David, this is Wayne. We have four lines operating now to supply sufficient (inaudible). We can take an additional line own. So, three lines will supply South line [ph]. David Gagliano – Credit Suisse: Okay. All right, perfect. And then, just as a follow-up, on the cash flow information on page 14, the – first of all the smelter cash cost, that $1800 a ton, that’s basically for Mt. Holly and Hawesville, is that right? That excludes Ravenswood, right?

Logan Kruger

Management

Correct, you bet, David. Absolutely. David Gagliano – Credit Suisse:

Mike Bless

Management

You got a lot of assumptions there and we – again, we – you’ve heard what we’ve said in the past in the written materials. I think we’d say clearly based on these data that it extends into 2010 nicely as to when in 2010 whether it’s year-end or something otherwise. I mean, everybody is going to have their own interpretation.

Logan Kruger

Management

I would say it’s well into 2010. To try and pick a particular period in 2010 is difficult, David. But you’ve done the right arithmetic, I think. David Gagliano – Credit Suisse: Okay.

Mike Bless

Management

Another statistic I could give to help out, we talked about in the past and I should have updated it quite frankly is that – I was just doing $0.66 David to get around $14.50 [ph] is that based on where we are today, today’s production capacity, so four lines at Hawesville, Mt. Holly, Grundartangi, and our tax position, which is basically a non-tax payer. Every $100 in the LME, up or down increases or decreases of course bottom line free cash flow, by somewhere in the $40 million to $45 million range. So, you can play with your sensitivities in that respect. David Gagliano – Credit Suisse: All right, great.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, David.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks, David.

Operator

Operator

Next, we have the line of Tony Rizzuto with Dahlman Rose. Please go ahead. Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Thanks very much, a great job on reshaping the company in this difficult environment. Your primary realization on your direct shipments at $0.72 a pound would seem to reflect more than just the Midwest premium. Has it been accentuated by the greater shift towards high purity metal as you guys shut down Ravenswood?

Logan Kruger

Management

Wayne Hale

Management

I mean, there is a – certainly a bit of shift of opportunistic developments in the plant to take advantage of high purity.

Mike Bless

Management

But I think Tony has got it sorted on a weighted average basis. Tony, it’s Mike. You got it right, which is we haven’t changed our high purity and the denominator is lower. So – and all the stuff we’ve taken out obviously is standard grade. So, I think the math result that you are looking at, I think you got the right explanation for it. Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Okay. And then at Mt. Holly guys, what is the timeframe? Can you give us an idea of the timeframe for a possible decision there and can you give us an idea of what the current power price is that you are paying right now?

Logan Kruger

Management

Yes. Tony, it’s Logan. So, I think the answer to try and give you a timeframe on Mt. Holly is very difficult. You have two partners, both are operating companies, both come at perhaps from different directions, we are in very extensive discussions with Alcoa. We like the facility, it’s just how do you see that facility in this period of time and what you do with it. So, I would be wrong to put a timing on this because it will just put everyone in a box, which we don’t need. We’ve – it’s receptive but parties do have different views. In terms of the power prices, I’m not sure what we said before, but you could look it up I think and from CRU and that would probably give you some reasonable idea of where it is.

Mike Bless

Management

Yes, I mean as we said before, we can’t state the exact price due to the agreements with the power supplier, but as we said before, it’s not the least attractive power tariffs in the – electric power tariff smelters in the U.S., but it’s probably weighing in the back of the third, maybe fourth quarter for power tariffs and it’s not a good situation.

Logan Kruger

Management

Tony, in summary, you’ve got a good facility, well run, with an as Wayne said earlier, an attractive [ph] power price and the discussions are ongoing. They are not cursory, they are run in a very professional manner and we’ll keep you up-to-date as things happen if it’s significant. Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Okay, that’s because that is a good facility, I know that was – I think was one of the most recent vintages of –

Logan Kruger

Management

It is.

Mike Bless

Management

It is.

Logan Kruger

Management

And it’s very well run. I think if you look at it from an operating statistics, from a safety point of view, I think Wayne also indicated that when we look to power prices going into this year from Santee Cooper as a supplier, they were somewhat higher than we’ve seen so far. But even with that improvement, it’s still – I think Mike and Wayne have described somewhere in the third quarter, all of power prices. So, you can get it, see or they might give you an indicator. I don’t have that in front of me at this time. Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Got you. In Grundartangi, when you guys gross up the cost on alumina, the – essentially, take the average for purposes of a presentation like this, you look at the average in the quarter, the LME, and you kind of use that index there to kind of utilize what the alumina cost would be?

Mike Bless

Management

Yes. What we did Tony, is to keep it very simple and very vanilla is just – as I said, we ran these estimates around 1400 metal, which is kind of a – it’s not the mathematic mean or anything, but it’s just kind of where the metal is you are well aware has been recently and then we looked at where we believe based on our market intelligence sort of long-term meaning a year plus, contract alumina prices are trading today and on that basis, we grossed up the actual cash cost at Grundartangi. Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Got you – got you. And what are some of the cost reduction efforts that you still see an opportunity is there for reducing?

Logan Kruger

Management

Specifically Grundartangi? Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Yes.

Logan Kruger

Management

Obviously, capacity throughput, I think Wayne and the teams there, David (inaudible) the guys have done a fantastic – I think obviously we work on the other key elements. Wayne (inaudible)?

Wayne Hale

Management

Yes, I think the key ones as you upon, certainly the denominator production but certainly we look at the labor cost, the overtime, and specifically contractor costs and as Logan hit it, carbon costs are now even more substandard than energy costs. So, we are looking at that and working with our suppliers diligently.

Logan Kruger

Management

Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Right, excellent. And I’ve just got one more question left. Well, I’m going to – like you to take a shot at this. Your thoughts on this UC Rusal and there has been a lot of mixed reports about what the Russians are doing and what they said they would do and I’m – what are you guys – what are you seeing here? You really believe that they’ve taken out what they said they were going to do?

Logan Kruger

Management

Tony Rizzuto – Dahlman Rose: Okay. I appreciate your thoughts on that. Thank you.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Tony.

Operator

Operator

Next, we have David Rosenberg, Oaktree Capital. Please go ahead. David Rosenberg – Oaktree Capital: Hi guys.

Mike Bless

Management

Hi, David. David Rosenberg – Oaktree Capital: The question I had was, historically you guys have always said that you are about 23% hedged to aluminum due to natural hedges in all of our smelters. Can you refresh that number given now that Ravenswood is curtailed?

Logan Kruger

Management

It’s – I don’t have it right now, David. We are all agreeing here, it’s obviously lower. That’s a throwaway statement. We’ll have to provide that sort of in a – maybe the next sell side conference that we go to or something like that. It’s – I wouldn’t even want to – it would be a pure guess on my part, I just prefer not to do it. If we can get ourselves together quickly here to give you a reasonable estimate before the questions run out, we’ll do it, but I kind of doubt it. Otherwise, we’ll put that out there. It’s a fair, very fair question, the next public format that we ask. David Rosenberg – Oaktree Capital: Okay. And could you also tell us what the availability was on a revolver at quarter-end?

Mike Bless

Management

Yes, I mean a couple of answers to that question. First is, as you know we continue to have a 11 – well, take a step back, it’s a $100 million revolver. We continue to have a $11 million of the capacity used to back step letters of credit. Those LOCs mostly are used for the $8 million plus – to back step the $8 million of industrial revenue bonds we still have out. Given where the inventory is priced today, we still are doing the month-end calculations, but there is not a lot of availability left on it. There is maybe another, say $20 million-ish, maybe as much as $25 million, but I prefer to say $29 million of actual cash drawdown availability left on it. As we said before, you didn’t ask David, but the obvious question is why don’t you draw on. If you go below a certain amount, you can look at the document online, it’s $25 million of availability, you end up in a $15 million – Shelly Lair, Treasurer, just corrects me, you end up in a dominion cash situation, you are quite familiar with that term, and it’s given our liquidity today, it wouldn’t make any sense and I would assume you would agree to do that, but that’s kind of the availability at current metal prices. David Rosenberg – Oaktree Capital: Okay, thank you.

Mike Bless

Management

Sure, David.

Operator

Operator

And next, we have line of Mark Liinamaa with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Hello all.

Mike Bless

Management

Hi, Mark.

Logan Kruger

Management

Hi, Mark. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: I think I know the answer to this as well, but just to be clear, there have been some press reports about Glencore force majeures and alumina supply agreements to competitors. Are there any risks or potential disruptions either in the U.S. or Iceland?

Logan Kruger

Management

Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Okay. And can you comment at all about the – maybe your long-term view on Gramercy?

Logan Kruger

Management

Wayne Hale

Management

No, I think you hit it, Logan.

Logan Kruger

Management

Yes, as you know Wayne is – Wayne and his team look after our interest in Gramercy and both partners have recognized the need to certainly reduce the op for the Gramercy and the plant is running pretty efficiently from an energy point of – there are concern as well at these lower levels. But it’s certainly not a market producer at this point in time as you would guess. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Sure. And just finally, as you look at the supply demand and balance and you and others have commented that we need to see more smelter capacity come offline to get things in balance. Is there enough cost differential that you have some level confidence if there are some logical people to step up for or is this going to be a bit of a waiting game do you think?

Logan Kruger

Management

I don’t think that it – Mark, that it’s deliberately a waiting game. I think it’s each individual, industry participant, company, operation has different sets of circumstances. We’ve just gone through our discussions with Mt. Holly, discussions at Gramercy. So, there you got two different sets of partnerships, which may give you a different result for different discussion. I think they – certainly from a North American, European, and perhaps even into parts of Asia, there are significant levels of production that is above in costs, above what you are seeing on the LME. And I think most producers have to face up to the decision to continue to run or to curtail in some form. You have even seen some level of curtailment coming out of the Middle East, which was a – I think it’s somewhat of a surprise to most of us. So, a modest one, but it’s also sort of tells you that even at that level for certain levels of production it’s perhaps wiser to curtail. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley:

Logan Kruger

Management

Yes, Mark, the China ones have happened, some of them already have happened. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: The central government though I understand has been taking a little harder line view on this than the provincial government – operation. Is that your view that the central government still wants to show some discipline?

Logan Kruger

Management

I think the answer is, yes, balanced against unemployment and other social political demand, so you’re talking of a very large country with 1.2 billion people and lot of interested parties. So I think it’s very localized, but the – overall, the central government wishes to curtail in power-intensive industries. But power is not as much as problem as it was maybe a year ago because other industries have come off. So it's a moving feast, but obviously there have been curtailments, but there have also been some restarts, of course helped by what’s happened with the Shanghai price, Mark. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Very good. Thanks and good luck for you with –

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks very much, Mark.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks, Mark. Mark Liinamaa – Morgan Stanley: Bye for now.

Mike Bless

Management

Bye.

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Brett Levy with Jefferies & Company. Please go ahead. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Hi guys, could you talk –

Logan Kruger

Management

Hi, Brett. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Hi, how are you?

Logan Kruger

Management

How are you? Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Can you talk a little bit about kind of a scenario where essentially you take Hawesville down, you take Mt. Holly down, let's assume we’re out a couple of years some of the customers contracts have gone away. Is there a viable plan to basically be a Iceland producer so long as Iceland is the only production facility that’s cash flow positive?

Mike Bless

Management

Brett, its Mike. I mean, you are asking a pretty loaded question there with assumption on assumption. I don't to be honest even know how to answer that other than to tell you what you would already hopefully would say, which is we are looking at – we are studying hard all of those potential scenarios. It's a throw-away answer, but it happens to be the truth and I wouldn't even want to start speculating about a Iceland-only company or an Iceland-only plus this or an Iceland-only plus that. It's – everything is in the mix at this point in time and we're talking as Wayne said suppliers as you say correctly customers, partners have a big equation here, and it’s just – that one I think defies an answer at this point.

Logan Kruger

Management

Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: And then, we've seen some flexibility. Obviously you probably saw the agreement Teck Cominco reached with their banks. It looks like the credit markets are opening up a little bit. Is there a possibility of taking your existing bank agreement and maybe finding a better agreement?

Michael Bless

Analyst

Sure. We are again, on the capital structure side looking at all that stuff too, opening capital markets, fixed-income markets, what opportunities could be there if and when the time is right. On the bank group, we've had good discussions with the bank group. We've got a really good group there. BofA has been a terrific agent there, very current on what's going on at the company. We keep good contacts with them. So we're talking to them, there is nothing advanced in any – to the – in any way in terms of the kind of thing you're talking about right now. The last couple of months hasn't been a great time, this is an understatement as you well know, Brett, to start renegotiating unsecured credit agreements but that discussion is absolutely ongoing. Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company:

Mike Bless

Management

Okay, fair enough. I will give myself – Brett Levy – Jefferies & Company: Thanks very much guys.

Logan Kruger

Management

See you later.

Operator

Operator

We have a question from Brandon Senese [ph] with Cobalt Capital. Please go ahead. Brandon Senese – Cobalt Capital: Thanks. My questions have been answered, thanks.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks, Brandon.

Mike Bless

Management

Thanks, Brandon.

Operator

Operator

(Operator instructions) At this time, there are no further questions in queue.

Logan Kruger

Management

Thanks very much, operator. Thanks to everyone for taking the time for – to be on our call today and we look forward to talking to you again soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Executive Teleconference. You may now disconnect.