George Roeth
Analyst · SunTrust. Please proceed with your question, Bill
Thank you Howard. I would now like to talk about our key strategies and initiatives as we move forward. These are fundamental to our efforts to achieve sustainable revenue and profit growth and ultimately increase shareholder value in the years ahead. The key change vectors are accelerating Central's portfolio momentum, increasing our innovation output and success rates and driving higher value cost savings and productivity improvements. At the same time, we expect to continue to build upon and leverage our strong differentiating customer relationships. There will be a cost to driving these changes which will slow down earnings growth in the near-term to drive shareholder value creation over the longer term. The first change vector, accelerating portfolio momentum, is about aligning our array of businesses around higher growth. This starts with managing each business differently based on its role in the portfolio and strategy. For example, it is critical to designate which businesses are being managed more for topline growth and may need incremental demand building investment and which are being managed more for profitability and align those businesses with the appropriate resources and capabilities to drive more profit. In cases where business is performing poorly, on both the top and bottom line, does not have a competitive advantage and has no path to improvement, we have to take a hard look at that business. It maybe that we need to alter our strategy and see if we can make a difference. If we can't find a path to acceptable profitability, we will consider exiting as we did with holiday decor and veterinary businesses. Another important element of creating more portfolio momentum is leveraging our strong cash flow to make successful acquisitions. We like to ideally acquire businesses where we can leverage our capabilities and grow faster than the company average. We have talked in the past about acquisitions that we have made over the last 18 months, The IMS treats and chews business, the DMC pet bedding business and Hydro-Organics, a small organic fertilizer business, all are performing well and are meeting or beating expectations and we are investing and expanding these businesses. In addition, in late October we purchased Segrest, the largest wholesale supplier of aquarium fish. We are excited about this business. It's a natural fit with our existing aquatic business gives Central an even broader array of aquatics products that are second to none. Segrest comes with a highly knowledgeable and seasoned management team that is remaining with the company. The wholesale live fish category is $350 million and we believe that Segrest's market share of that highly fragmented and often localized category is roughly three times the next largest competitor. We are confident that we can continue to leverage their superior capabilities and scale for consistent market share growth as well as coordinate with our existing aquatics business to drive incremental mutual growth. Increasing innovation output and success rates is another important change vector in which we are focused. Developing differentiated products that grow the categories and are value add to our retailers and consumers is instrumental in helping drive revenue growth. For example, this spring we will be introducing a new slow-release high-efficiency fertilizer under the Pennington Ultragreen brand. This product utilizes a technology that we believe is unique in the market, yields better results and requires less water. We believe this is a winning on-trend proposition. Innovation, however, is more than just about a new product. It can encompass how we talk to our consumers or how we go to market. We have been increasing our overall investment not just in R&D but in consumer insight and demand creation activities, including digital, to an appropriate level for each business to drive sustainable growth. Innovation can also do more than just drive topline growth. It can also contribute to a lower cost structure. Developing improved products while at the same time creating a step function reduction in the cost to produce that product is truly a win-win win for Central, its retail partners and consumers. A good example of this is our reformulated Pennington One Step Complete patch product for lawns which debuted in the spring of 2015. We successfully developed a better and more cost effective mulch that goes into the product and while doing so we created a more efficacious product. This allowed us to promote the product more aggressively in stores, thus increasing and profits for us and our retail partners. Finally, we are also keenly focused on driving more pure cost savings and productivity improvements. These efforts provide the fuel for growth, both topline and bottomline. We are focused on developing for each business a three-year lien of sight on initiatives to reduce cost, consistent with that business' potential around the company portfolio. These actions extend to manufacturing, procurement, distribution and administrative areas of the business. They are sometimes business specific or can relate to the entire enterprise. To this end, we have hired Bill Lynch as our new Senior VP of Operations. I have worked with Bill in the past and I am confident he will be a meaningful resource to the organization in a number of ways. First, he will be instrumental in helping the company think strategically for the long term. In partnership with our business leaders, Bill will also be looking at lowering or cost by helping optimize our supply chain footprint, improving our operating efficiency and facilitating coordination across our businesses by sharing best practices and aligning for scale. One example in the area of supply chain optimization is in our small animal business, where we have made significant manufacturing changes. For example, we brought in-house the manufacturing capability to produce our small animal bedding. Not only will this lower cost on a superior product, but we have been able to bring out new colors and fragrances more aggressively. Another example would be in our dog and cat business where we are taking seven facilities and combining them into two larger facilities, adding capacity while increasing efficiency by reducing the complexity of producing, packaging and shipping these products. Finally, in our garden business, we recently opened a new garden distribution center in Eastern Pennsylvania and closed one in Taunton, Massachusetts. This puts us closer to our customers, some of our fastest-growing vendor partners and adds capacity to support our growth. All of these efforts, be it manufacturing, procurement, distribution or administration, are expected to drivers of cost savings and higher margin in the years ahead while ensuring we can meet the growing demand we expect in these businesses. There will be some negative impact on margins in 2017 as we incur the cost to make these types of changes going forward. The benefits from these cost savings initiatives will likely not start to be felt until late 2017 and to 2018. But even with these additional expenses, we would still expect our margins to grow during the year. We are very fiscally disciplined as we invest in the business and hence, we fully expect fiscal 2017 earnings per share to grow to $1.34 or higher despite increased level of spending to drive future sales and profit growth. With upside hinging on the strength of the garden season, the timing and efficiency of transitioning to the new facilities we are opening and whether the recent deceleration in growth in the overall pet industry that we discussed on our last call continues. Fiscal 2017 also has 53 weeks compared to 52 week for 2016. That extra week however comes at the end of our fiscal year, which seasonally is a much less meaningful quarter for our garden business. That extra week is expected to add approximately $0.01 to the year's EPS, so not a big impact. Finally, we would expect our CapEx to be between $40 million and $45 million for 2017 as we continue to invest in the future. I would also say that while we were reluctant to and are not going to be giving out annual revenue guidance due to our small size, seasonality and third-party nature of our distribution business, I can say over the long term, we expect to outperform our categories organically and to add at least one to two acquisitions annually similar in size to IMS, DMC and Segrest. That means we should be averaging, let me repeat, averaging 2% to 3% organic revenue growth with M&A adding to that figure. However, it should be noted that we don't control the timing of M&A and therefore, do not depend on it for our annual plans and guidance. Now we all would be happy to answer any of your questions and operator, please open up the line for questions.