Tim Cofer
Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Yes, Brad, look, no doubt about it. These last couple of years we saw, I'd say three dynamics, the third being on garden, meaning one, you had kind of a post-COVID consumer behavioral shift going on. Two, you had really unprecedented inflation back to back two consecutive years, which, of course, we matched with pricing in order to protect our margins and still deliver value to our consumers. And then certainly on the garden side, we've had a couple of years of less than optimal weather. And so, all that has put pressure on unit takeaway. I think as you'll start to look forward, you see that inflationary cost envelope getting more and more benign. So this year the inflation still hit us and we had to price, and we priced kind of mid single digits across the enterprise, obviously category by category differed. And we saw a corresponding decay in volume kind of mid single digits. We are now at a point where we're seeing that cost inflationary pressure begin to mitigate. And so that sets up a different dynamic next year really in all three of those variables. One is, I think, a lot of that post-COVID consumer behavior starts to roll off and we can get to a little bit more normal as opposed to an unfavorable situation versus during COVID. Two, I mean, who knows on the weather, but it's hard to think three years in a row of rough weather. And then I think you're not going to have as much price elasticity going on. The one other call out on our business is on the pet side, and it's related to durables versus consumables. Durables, as you know, are most closely aligned with pet ownership and adoption. And here we did – we are seeing, and I said at my prepared remarks, more downward pressure in the teens on the durables again think fish tanks, small animal enclosures, pet beds, et cetera. I think that probably still hangs with us through the front half of 2024 given pet ownership dynamics. But with the exception of that, I think we get to a more favorable environment on unit takeaway as we roll into 2024.