Collin Kebo
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Thanks, Chris and good morning everyone. I will start my prepared remarks with more detail on the second quarter, move to capital allocation priorities and then finish up with our 2021 outlook. Turning to our second quarter P&L on Slide 8, consolidated net sales were $5.1 billion, up 17.9% on a reported and an average daily sales basis. On a constant currency average daily sales basis, consolidated net sales grew 16.3%. Compared to the second quarter of 2019, net sales increased more than $0.5 billion or 11.2%. On an average daily sales basis, sequential sales increased 4.7% versus the first quarter. Second quarter sales were stronger than expected reflecting several factors. On the demand side, the rebound was sharper than expected in several channels, most impacted by COVID-19 last year. Corporate, Small Business and CDW Canada all delivered very healthy double-digit growth versus 2020 and are up versus 2019. So, the strong growth reflects more than easy comparisons. As Chris mentioned, education momentum continued, delivering the fourth consecutive quarter of over $1 billion of net sales. On the supply side, while the backlog increased several hundred million dollars in the second quarter, the team did a great job leveraging CDW’s competitive advantages and supporting stronger than expected demand, so the backlog did not increase even more. Gross profit for the quarter was $883 million, an increase of 18.2%. Gross margin was 17.2%, up approximately 10 basis points versus last year primarily driven by an increase in the mix of net service contract revenue, primarily software-as-a-service and strong professional services performance, partially offset by overlapping higher margin configuration services for the Census project last year. Turning to SG&A on Slide 9, non-GAAP SG&A increased 13.6%. The increase was primarily driven by payroll costs, including sales compensation, which moves with gross profit growth; performance-based compensation consistent with higher attainment against goals; and investments in the business, including coworker count to drive our strategy. Coworker count at the end of the second quarter was 10,666. Coworker count increased 480 from the first quarter and 618 from the prior year. The increase in coworker count reflects organic and inorganic investments to support high growth solution areas and our digital transformation. GAAP operating income was $370 million, up 30.5%. Non-GAAP operating income, which better reflects operating performance, was $418 million, up 23.6%. Non-GAAP operating income margin was 8.1%. Moving to Slide 10, interest expense was $36 million, down 10.6%. The decrease was primarily due to savings from last year’s refinancing, a lower LIBOR rate and lower revolving credit facility borrowings. Other income reflects $36 million from the sale of our ownership interest in an equity method investment. Proceeds from the sale were excluded from non-GAAP metrics. Our GAAP effective tax rate, shown on Slide 11, was 26.2%. This resulted in second quarter tax expense of $97 million compared to $56 million last year. To get to our non-GAAP effective tax rate, we adjust taxes consistent with non-GAAP net income add-backs, as shown on Slide 12. For the quarter, our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 25.4% and up 50 basis points versus last year’s rate, primarily due to higher foreign taxes. As you can see on Slide 13, with second quarter weighted average diluted shares outstanding of $142 million GAAP net income per share, was $1.93, up 47.4%. Our non-GAAP net income was $286 million in the quarter, up 27%. Non-GAAP net income per share was $2.02, up 29.3% from last year. Turning to first half results on Slides 14 through 19, net sales were $10 billion, an increase of 14% on a reported basis and 14.9% on an average daily sales basis as we had one fewer selling day in the first half of 2021. The one fewer selling day will be made up in Q4 when we have one extra selling day compared to the prior year. On a constant currency average daily sales basis, first half consolidated net sales were 13.6% higher than the prior year. Gross profit was $1.7 billion up 11.6% and gross profit margin was 16.8% down approximately 40 basis points. Operating income was $693 million and non-GAAP operating income was $786 million, up 22.4%. Net income was $507 million, and non-GAAP net income was $536 million, up 25.9%. Non-GAAP net income per share was $3.76, up 27.9%. Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 20, at June 30, cash and cash equivalents were $0.5 billion and net debt was $3.4 billion. Liquidity remains strong with cash plus revolver availability of approximately $1.7 billion. Year-to-date, free cash flow was $110 million, as shown on Slide 21. This was lighter than a typical first half but expected given last year’s record $1.2 billion of free cash flow, which benefited from timing and one-time items. Year-to-date, we saw some of the timing reverse as we mixed out of vendors with extended payment terms. Additionally, working capital increases during periods of rapid growth and we made strategic investments in inventory to support customers during this choppy supply environment. For the quarter, we deployed cash consistent with our capital allocation priorities, returning $433 million to shareholders, including $56 million of dividends and $377 million of share repurchases at an average price of approximately $170 per share. Moving to Slide 22, the 3-month average cash conversion cycle was 21 days, down 4 days from last year’s second quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by improved accounts receivable collection performance. Turning to capital allocation on Slide 23, our priorities remain the same: first, increase the dividend in line with non-GAAP net income. To guide these increases, we will target the dividend at approximately 25% of non-GAAP net income and to grow in line with earnings going forward. Second, ensure we have the right capital structure in place with a targeted net leverage ratio of 2.5x to 3x. We ended the second quarter at 2.1x, up 0.4 of a turn from year-end. Third, supplement organic growth with strategic acquisitions. Focal Point and Amplified IT are great examples. And fourth, we turn excess cash after dividends and M&A to shareholders through share repurchases. Going forward, we expect to continue to move closer to our target net leverage range of 2.5x to 3x through a combination of organic investments, M&A and cash returned to shareholders. We now expect to return over $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2021, including at least $1.5 billion for share repurchases with the balance from dividends. This $0.5 billion increase from last quarter’s comments reflects our confidence in the cash flow generation and earnings power of the business. We remain active in evaluating M&A targets, and we will continue to deploy capital for M&A that passes our screens. Of course, as we always do, we will closely monitor the macroeconomic environment, liquidity and M&A activity, leverage and adjust as needed. Moving to the outlook for 2021 on Slide 24, the current environment continues to be challenging to forecast with a high degree of confidence. On the demand side, we continue to see strong activity and momentum, particularly with U.S. commercial customers and in CDW Canada. On the supply side, visibility remains a challenge. Notebooks, displays, docking stations, certain infrastructure hardware, including networking and servers are constrained, resulting in longer lead times and a higher backlog. With the exception of Chromebooks, the supply environment has not improved since our last earnings call, and most vendor partners do not expect the situation to improve in the second half. With that context, our updated outlook is for the U.S. IT market to grow approximately 5%. We expect CDW net sales to grow 425 to 500 basis points faster than the market in constant currency including the contribution from Focal Point. Currency is expected to be a tailwind of approximately 80 basis points for the full year, assuming exchange rates of $1.36 to the British pound and $0.79 to the Canadian dollar. Moving down the P&L, we continue to expect non-GAAP operating income margin to be in the mid-7% range for 2021. We now expect non-GAAP constant currency earnings per share growth in the strong mid-teens, call it, 16% to 16.5%. Currency is expected to contribute an additional approximately 70 basis points to earnings per share growth. The updated full year outlook for non-GAAP earnings per share is an increase of approximately $0.35 over last quarter. Additional modeling thoughts for annual depreciation and amortization, interest expense and the non-GAAP tax rate can be found on Slide 25. Moving to modeling thoughts for the third quarter, the 2015 to 2019 5-year average sequential increase from Q2 to Q3 on an average daily sales basis was approximately 4%, and we expect this year’s third quarter to be in line with normal seasonality, which equates to low double-digit year-over-year growth. We expect third quarter non-GAAP earnings per share to grow low double digits. Our updated outlook for the balance of the year assumes modest growth in the backlog. If supply turns out to be more resilient, enabling us to work down the backlog or keep pace with even stronger demand that would be upside to the outlook. We feel good about the health of the business and believe supply uncertainty is a question of timing across the second half and into 2022. Our long-term free cash flow rule of thumb remains unchanged at 3.75% to 4.25% of net sales, assuming current tax rates. Given the timing impacts that contributed to 2020 significant over-delivery, we continue to expect 2021 free cash flow to be at or slightly below the low end of the range. Additional modeling thoughts on the components of free cash flow, including capital expenditures and the cash conversion cycle, can also be found on Slide 25. As we always do, we will provide updated views on the macro environment and our business on future earnings calls. That concludes the financial summary. With that, I’ll ask Tamia to open it up for questions. Can we please ask each of you to limit your questions to one with a brief follow-up? Thank you.