Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. (CDRO) Q3 2024 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Codere Online Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Guillermo Lancha, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Thanks, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Codere Online's earnings call for third quarter of 2024. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Aviv Sher; and CFO, Oscar Iglesias. Our Executive Vice Chairman, Moshe Edree, will also join us in the Q&A section. Before turning the call over to Aviv, I'd like to remind everyone that during this call, we will be referring to a presentation we uploaded to our website earlier today, which includes non-GAAP preliminary and unaudited financial metrics such as net gaming revenue or adjusted EBITDA, for which you can find reconciliations in the appendix of the presentation. Please note that all growth rates discussed during this call are year-on-year comparisons unless noted otherwise. Let me also remind you that our accounting information is prepared under IFRS accounting standards and that throughout this presentation, all monetary figures will be in Euro unless expressed otherwise. Finally, please note that a replay and transcript of this call will be available on our website at codereonline.com, where you can also sign up for our investor e-mail alerts. With that, I will go ahead and pass the call on to Aviv.

Thanks, Guillermo, and thanks for everyone for joining us today. Before we discuss the highlights of the quarter, I would like first to address and provide a quick update on where we stand with respect to the delisting process with NASDAQ. As you may have seen in our press release, the hearing panel where we would be requesting additional time to file our annual report has been scheduled for January 16. As you know, the delisting of our shares and warrants is currently stayed and will continue to be stayed through the duration of the hearing process. In practical terms, we now have seven weeks until the hearing in which we will continue working to file our annual report so as to regain compliance with the NASDAQ listing recovery requirements thereby eliminating the need for the hearing. Now diving into the highlights of the third quarter of 2024 on Page 8. We delivered €52 million in net gaming revenue, €8.5 million or 20% above Q3 2023. Third quarter net gaming was negatively impacted by about $3.5 million as a result of a weaker Mexican peso versus the prior year period. Excluding this impact, net gaming revenue would have been €55 million in the third quarter, a 32% increase over the prior year and an improvement over what was a record NGR in the second quarter. In terms of product mix, the contribution from our casino segment is increasing and more or less in line with the level achieved in the second quarter due to seasonal decline in sports betting during the summer months. This growth in net gaming revenue was driven by a 4% increase in average monthly spend per active customer to €120, together with a 15% increase in the number of average monthly active customers. With regard to customer acquisitions, we had 67,000 first-time depositors at an average CPA of €250. For those of you that have been with us for some time, you will recall that since mid-2023, our average customer acquisition cost has been on an upward trend, primarily due to the mixed effect that is more investment in Spain and Mexico versus Colombia, Panama and Argentina, and both in Mexico and Spain and increased focus on acquiring what we call casino-first customers which generally requires a higher upfront investment. With this, I will now turn the call over to Oscar to cover the financial highlights of the quarter and to our current expectation with respect to the full year of 2024.

Thanks, Aviv. Turning now to the financial performance for the quarter on Page 10. And consolidated net gaming revenue grew by 20% to $52 million. This was driven primarily by our Mexican business, where revenue grew 27% to 27 million. In Spain, meanwhile, net gaming revenue grew 11% to nearly 21 million. Adjusted EBITDA was positive €1.5 million in the third quarter and included a contribution of approximately €6 million from our Spanish business and €1 million from Mexico. As a reminder, our country-level results now include certain expenses that in 2023 were classified as undistributed B2B expenses. So the comparison versus prior year periods are hard. In Spain, for example, third quarter adjusted EBITDA includes approximately €1 million in what previously would have been undistributed B2B expenses and is otherwise negatively impacted by a higher allocation of platform expenses versus the prior year period. This, together with a higher level of total marketing investment in the third quarter, explains the year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA in Spain. Looking now at our P&L on Page 11, the €1.5 million improvement in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was primarily driven by the €8.5 million increase in net gaming revenue, partially offset by a higher level of marketing spend in the quarter as well as higher platform and content fees. Turning now to Page 12. The 20% increase in net gaming revenue is being driven by both an increase in active customers from Spain and Mexico, together with a higher spend per active. I will discuss in more detail later, but given the significant devaluation of the Mexican peso since the presidential election took place in June, we thought it would be helpful to also provide growth, assuming constant currency for Mexico which would have been 32% instead of the reported 20%. FTDs, meanwhile, dropped 3% in the quarter and 8% sequentially, and mostly driven by declines in both Colombia and Argentina. Still, we had a 15% increase in active customers in the quarter, primarily due to improved retention of existing customers. Turning to the Spanish operating and financial metrics. Net gaming revenue in the third quarter increased 11% versus the prior year, driven by the 18% increase in the number of active customers to 49,000, partially offset by a decrease in spend per active. In Mexico, net gaming revenue was €27 million in the third quarter, an increase of 27% year-on-year. The Mexican peso devalued by more than 12% in the third quarter of 2024, resulting in a €3 million headwind to our net gaming revenue in Mexico. On a constant currency basis, our net gaming revenue would have grown 43%. So the underlying trend we have seen throughout this year in Mexico remains intact. This strong performance was driven by a 23% increase in the number of active customers. On Page 15, we wanted to provide some context on the Mexican peso and its recent performance against the euro, our reporting currency. As you can see, comparing yesterday's closing exchange rate against pre-election levels, the Mexican peso has devalued by 18%. From a reporting standpoint, in the third quarter, the peso devaluation was around 12%. And looking ahead to the fourth quarter, you should expect a similar headwind with the peso having already devalued approximately 14% in the quarter-to-date period versus the prior year period. Turning to the balance sheet on Page 17. As of September 30, we had €44 million of total cash on the balance sheet, of which approximately €38 million was available. €3.5 million more than where we ended the second quarter. In terms of our net working capital position, we ended the quarter with negative €23 million or around 11% and of LTM net gaming revenue, which is both in line with prior quarters and continues to reflect a relatively restrictive trade terms from suppliers. Looking at our cash flow on Page 18. In the first nine months of the year, we generated €4.4 million of available cash, partially offset by a €2.4 million negative FX impact on ending cash balances, primarily due to the devaluation of the Mexican peso in the year-to-date period. With regards to our 2024 outlook on Page 20, we are reiterating current guidance but expect that we will finish the year in the upper part of the range for both net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA. That's all from my end. I will now hand it back over to Aviv for closing remarks.

Thanks, Oscar. Before we turn to the Q&A, I would like to thank the Codere Online team, as always, for their hard work to deliver these results. As we approach the end of the year, I'm pleased to continue delivering upon our commitment and also excited with what lies ahead for the next year and beyond. As always, thanks to the investors, analysts and other market participants for your interest, support and patience, especially with respect to our 2023 20-F filing. With that said, I will turn it back to the operator to open up the call to Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question today comes from the line of Ryan Sigdahl from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is open.

Hi. Good day, guys. I want to start with the Mexican peso. You quantified the revenue impact. What's the flow-through to EBITDA either overall or I guess, on that segment and country?

Yes. Ryan, good question. I think that as a generic response, I would say that in Mexico, our cost structure, it is overwhelmingly also Mexican peso-denominated. So there's a natural hedge between the revenue from our customers and Mexican business with the cost structure. That said, there are a few exceptions. So we have some centralized costs, for example, streaming expenses that are hard currency denominated and largely fixed expenses for us, some of which get pushed down into the different -- all of which gets pushed down into the different operating businesses. So there is a slight amount of mismatch there in terms of the cost structure, but overwhelmingly, the cost structure is peso denominated. So what would affect revenue typically would also effect at the operating cash flow level.

And then just staying on Mexico, anything surprising or to be aware of kind of from a proposed expected legislation regulation, it feels like an ongoing discussion there? And then just on the promotional environment with new competitors in the recent months, strong market growth, I guess, has that changed any of the competitive intensity in Mexico?

Aviv?

Yes. So far, no change in legislation. Several people have been, let's say, replaced by the new government. We are in contact with them. But no surprises so far. We continue to work with them, and we are getting responses. So it seems that nothing currently has dramatically changed. We don't feel anything like that. In terms of competitors, we saw competitors coming into the market, especially around the World Cup during the summer. I think now, again, it's stabilized between, let's say, four to six main competitors and maybe another two, three, four small ones. And so overall, I think now going into, let's say, winter, it's more or less the same environment, a little bit more pricey because of the inflation prior to the World Cup. So again, there are also no big surprises over there as well.

Aviv, you're referring to Copa America, correct?

Yes, Copa America not World Cup, I'm referring to Copa -- I'm already thinking 2026.

Very good. On Copa America, the euros, acquired a bunch of new customers really good for the industry and for you guys. With those customers, anything surprised you from ability to cross-sell into El Casino as far as retention engagement, I guess, now that we have a little bit more time from when those events happened. Anything surprise you or...

No. I think we are putting a lot of effort in cross-promoting the casino from the sport. Also surprisingly, because we are seeing more and more casino customers, we are also crossing from casino to sport, which is, I would say, more surprising in that part. Overall, we are getting better in that. Also, the customers are looking for more casino content and are playing more casino when there is less sport, right now, the MLB -- as I'm referring to Mexico at this point, has been finished and NFL started. So it's a little bit more quiet now, but it's starting to pick up and will pick up during the first quarter, probably next year. So overall, I think we are succeeding in this cross promotion, and we are getting better at that. We're getting better.

Good. Thanks guys. Good luck and look forward to getting started behind us. Thanks.

Great. Thanks, Ryan.

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Stantial from Stifel. Your line is open.

Hi, great. Good morning, Aviv, Oscar, thanks for taking our questions. Maybe starting off -- I appreciate the color you provided on the hearing schedule with respect to the NASDAQ listing notification that last week. Aviv, or Oscar, whoever wants to take this, could you just maybe add some color in terms of where you're at with the 20-F filing process -- sort of any sort of context on blocking and tackling that's left that can help frame the time line here as you look to get that file successfully ahead of the hearing in, I think, about seven weeks here. Just any context there would be helpful. Thank you.

Yes. Jeff, it's a good question. Obviously, we'd love to be in a position to give a specific timetable to investors, analysts related to our filing. But the only thing I can say now is that we're doing everything we can on our end to complete the audit process. Obviously, that's the gating issue to us filing the 20-F itself. And the work in terms of the heavy lifting is overwhelmingly complete. It's really a question of dotting i's, crossing t's and then certain procedural aspects, I would say, given that it's a first-time audit from the standpoint of our auditor. But we can't give you something that we don't have. All I can tell you is that we're working -- it's our number one priority right now. We're working as hard as we can to get this wrapped up as soon as possible.

Day and night. Day and night to close this issue.

Perfect. That's helpful. And I recognize not predicting timing is tricky here. Turning to maybe a follow-up on one of the questions Ryan just asked in terms of the competitive landscape, you talked about some new competition coming into Mexico around Copa. I understand there's also been some entrants coming back into Spain, following the pairback of some of the restrictions that we're including in the Royal Decree. Can you just help me think about a bit mechanically, how you feel that competitive impact flowing through the P&L? Is it mostly higher CAC? Is it sort of a lower piece of user acquisition? Is there a pullback in sort of retention or engagement on the platform? In particular, I'm curious on the retention piece because I think Oscar you said earlier that retention has been improving, which is a bit counterintuitive if you think about more competition coming in. So just any color there on how this is kind of flowing through the P&L would be helpful.

Yes. So I'll start, and I know Oscar also prepared for a similar question. Basically, what we see, and I think this is the thing here is that the prices are increasing. When the competition is higher, the prices are increasing both in digital and in traditional media, which eventually leads to a higher CPA and then later, maybe to a lower ROI or slower, maybe not lower, a lower ROI until we are able to cover those kind of CPAs. We see it increase as time goes by, and it's expected because the market, as it's growing more and more mature, the prices play more important role in the acquisition part. And this is why we are happy. We already started investing in Mexico in the last three years, and we didn't wait until now. I think a competitor coming in now to the market will face much higher prices than when we started the online business and where our biggest competitor started when prices were much more lower than now. So eventually, if you are looking at the KPI where it affects, you'll see it probably in the CPA goes up and there may be a lower or slower ROI on those investments. But still, as we are getting better in the operational part, and this is what Oscar commented in his speech, is that we are managing to do better retention and to retain the player longer. So as we build our brand and make the investment, although it's more pricey, the clients choose to stay with us longer. So -- we are also -- we have this belief that if we buy a more expensive CPA through a certain range, we are also getting better players, which means that the ROI will be there eventually. So I think eventually, it's -- I don't want to say it's a zero sum game because the prices are getting up and the CPA are more expensive. But we are seeing an improving player value and maybe a little bit slower than before, not than expected than before ROI because we were surprised by the fast ROI that we are seeing.

Yes, Jeff, I would just add that this is just for the balance of those on the call. This is really a dynamic that we're seeing on the back of, as you mentioned, the rollback of certain restrictions that were otherwise including the advertising decree that's been in place since early 2021. So I think the most important aspect there is the reintroduction of the welcome bonus in the market, which, as you indicated, I think on the margin, it makes for all else being equal, a more competitive landscape and it's one that we're -- we've obviously adapted to and we've reintroduced as have, I think, all of our competitors, a welcome bonus. So it does impact, again, on the margin, the unit economics, the return profile in the market. But as Aviv says, we have been successful in mitigating that. And we have to say that the unit economics in Spain still are very, very good, right. So this is something that is on the margin versus the environment when we were operating without a welcome bonus, which really favored the top five, six, seven incumbents. In this new context, you have an additional tool for either new competitors or existing competitors that might be looking to grab share from others to be a little bit more aggressive. But again, this is something that we and I think all online operators deal with in all jurisdictions. It's just in Spain, we've had three years of, let's say, a relatively benign competitive landscape. The other point I wanted to make is on these rollbacks. And again, we're operating under the assumption that the rollbacks are -- will continue, but there is -- there are initiatives underway where there could be legislation next year by other means to reinstitute some of these restrictions that would basically take us back to where we were by way of what they call a Royal Decree and executive decree and to achieve the same legislative initiatives. So we very well could be here a year from now back to where we were prior to the whatever was April 10 constitutional rollback of some of these limitations. But again, we're not counting on that. We're operating on the assumption that this will continue, and this is the new operating environment in which we have to compete.

That's really helpful context. Maybe as a corollary to that, actually, could you add some color or help us think about maybe what gross profit payback period look like for that cohort of users that's been acquired in the last quarter or two that's coming at a slightly higher CAC? Is it 18 months, 24 months? Just any sort of context on what you're seeing in the payback period there? And then can you remind us -- I don't think you've established one, but philosophically, do you have kind of a level where you invest up until -- is it 18, 24, -- just how do you think about the level you're willing to spend up into when you're looking at the returns you're seeing?

Yes. It's a really good question and it's super important to understanding this business and operating an online business is understanding that unit economics that relationship between the upfront investment and the expected, not only player values or revenue generation from that cohort, but also the flow-through to obviously contribution margin and cash. So it's something we spend a lot of time. We don't share segment level, country level details. I can tell you that the -- in Spain, you've seen -- we've seen a little bit of a weakening again on the margin of that return profile on the back of the impact of this well components, but the dynamic is still very strong. You can assume that definitely from a revenue standpoint, the net gaming revenue standpoint that the paybacks are still well within a year. But every market is different, right? We look at Mexico a little bit different. So there's no one answer to up until what level do we invest. It very much has to do with what our objectives are over a multiple-year period. For example, Mexico after we leaseback -- we had a lot of work to do in that first year, 1.5 years and a lot of the investment was directed to reinforcing the brand, right? Brand investment, above the line investment, TV, radio and the rest. And we're seeing some of the benefits from that early investment in recent quarters and recent periods in terms of that return profile, which directionally, I can tell you is continuing to get better in Mexico. I think where we stand today, similar to what we thought two or three years ago was a little bit less tested, I think we're still very optimistic and confident that the Mexican business is going to continue delivering for us in the future as it has in the past. Because that profile, that relationship between upfront investment and return and revenue generation is getting -- is only getting better. So that's one. But we don't give specific numbers. Let us take a stab at maybe in the context of full year earnings, whether we can give the market and investors something that's helpful in that sense. But right now, we're not prepared to share that.

I appreciate that more qualitative color. That's very helpful. Oscar, if I could just squeeze in one last just more clerical question. Was there much of a hold impact or a negative sport outcome impact in Q3, right? Or you had I think the finals of Euros extended into Q3 with Spain winning and I think kind of obviously [Alcaraz ] has been a bit of a tear here. So just was there any noteworthy impact to call out on the hold front?

Can I just maybe just -- let me jump in and then I'll let Aviv complement with whatever he thinks is appropriate. But in Spain specifically, we spent a lot of time looking at kind of that because remember, the tournaments, especially the Euro Cup was a 4-week tournament, two of which fell at the end of June, the back half of June. The other two weeks fell in the front half of July. And there is -- and again, all of these are on the margin, right? But there was an impact in terms of a little bit of pull forward of activity in those first two weeks of the tournament versus those second two weeks. Obviously, the front end of a tournament like Euro Cup, Copa America, there's more games, there's more engagement. And as you work through and work through the eliminations phases, there's less games. So we had a little bit of pull forward of activity that fell in the second quarter that helped second quarter results to the expense of third quarter in terms of activity and revenue in Spain. And you also have -- which is a one-off for us is let's say, a Spain-based -- to our home market in Spain being in the final and having won the final Euro Cup, which fell into the third quarter, which, again, on the margin impacted July margin and sports betting revenue in Spain. In September, we also had some favorites win. Nothing dramatic. We typically don't point to variations in our sports betting margin because that, over time, typically averages out. So we try to be fair and not complain when it works against us and then say nothing when it works in our favor. But there was a little bit of that in the third quarter, both in July and then a little bit in September that, again, on the margin impacted our revenue in Spain. But Aviv, go ahead and complement with whatever you want.

No, I think it summarized. I don't have anything to add.

Perfect. That's all for me. I'll pass it on. Thanks for the color and nice quarter. Thank you.

Thanks Jeff.

Your next question comes from the line of Pat McCann from NOBLE Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. I just have a couple here. Firstly, I was wondering, when it comes to the movement in the peso, have you looked at the possibility of any mechanisms to hedge currency risk there? Just curious if you have any opinion about that.

Yes, I can take that. I think, look, up till now -- and we're just now inflecting to profitability, generation of operating cash flow in Mexico. So up till now, it hasn't been, and obviously, pre-Mexican elections from the time of COVID through to the Mexican elections, we benefited from a strengthening of the Mexican peso. And up until now, we haven't given the natural hedge, the matching between revenue and the denomination of the operating cost structure in Mexico, we haven't really considered it putting any hedges into place. I think more medium and long term, it's not something we're looking at short term, but as that business starts ramping and we get greater levels of profitability from Mexico, I think at some point, we might consider and analyze doing cash flow hedges in terms of the upstreaming of those monies and having better visibility, let's say, here in headquarters, hard currency over that operating cash flow and the timing and the certainties related to the upstreaming of those monies. But it's not something that I would say that we're working on here near term. But I think at some point, depending on how that business evolves medium, long term, it will be something that we probably will tackle with the Board of Directors, especially with a currency where there's a very active derivative market and you can readily hedge against either the dollar or the euro.

Got you. That makes sense. And then my other question is -- might not be the most pressing at this time. But just looking at the license expiries in your -- in the -- I guess, the new world markets, let's say, I think the first one to come up will be Colombia in late next year. And I know that's not market where you're -- you sort of deemphasized that as far as growth goes for the time being and really are more focused on Mexico and the opportunity there. I'm just curious, is that something where you would be kind of renewing that license and trying to maintaining that market for potentially investment growth at some point down the line? Or how do you think about sort of the secondary markets when it comes to the licenses going forward?

Yes. So I think definitely, we look at all our licenses as assets. And Colombia is one of them, and it's an asset, and we would like to maintain it at least until we are able to grow it. By the way, we didn't talk here about Colombia a lot, but we are seeing better results. It's slightly better and a little bit positive EBITDA. So I don't think that we can disregard this market that generates around €1 million almost a month. So for sure, if the terms will allow it, and it's not something crazy, we will renew the Colombian license. And maybe in the future, not so far, medium term, we will look deeply into this market for more opportunities there. I also saw that in the written questions here asking about Argentina, and I think Argentina is a little bit different, especially today that there is a parliament discussion about advertising them. So we need to look closely in this market, how it evolves.

Great. Thanks guys. And congrats again, on the quarter.

Thanks Pat.

[Operator Instructions] While we wait for any further questions, I will turn the call back over to Guillermo for any further web questions.

Yes. So we have a couple of questions on the webcast. The first one is around growth trajectory in 2025, if we can comment on that.

Yes. I think this is one where right now, we're focused on executing through the balance of what's left of the year. So we have December in front of us, and we want to make sure that December, which historically is a strong month for us, lots of activity on the sports betting and typically also engagement in the casino side of the business. So we want to make sure we close the year at as strong as possible. And then going into our full year call, which hopefully we'll have as we typically do at the end of February, we'll be able to bring some guidance in terms of both revenue, adjusted EBITDA for 2025. But we don't have any guidance just yet to share in regards to 2025.

Okay. And second question is around expansion into other Latin American markets, if we have any plans to expand?

Yes. I think in general, we plan to expand whether it's in other LatAm markets or to find good use of our cash. We are building cash slowly. And I think one of the things that we are considering is some kind of an M&A or entering a new market growth market. So we are definitely looking at it. Nothing in the short term that we can announce our share. But I think in the medium term, we will see the -- how we are going to use this cash in order to create some inorganic growth or maybe heavily more invested in our current markets.

Yes. I think now three years, the benefit of three years post de-SPAC, what we're not going to change is our approach to capital allocation and being very disciplined and ensuring that any money we put to work obviously has to compete if not do better than the return profile of the investments we're making in Spain in Mexico. So I think we're always open to new opportunities. We're analyzing a number of different opportunities in existing and new markets. But ultimately, we're not going to change our approach as it relates to disciplined capital allocation.

Related to that, another question is with the cash position that we are building, has management considered with the Board any share buybacks?

Yes. I mean it comes up on a -- from time to time. It's something we have discussed in the past with the Board. It's something we will in the future, discuss with the Board. And I think it's something that especially as we move forward and to the extent that we continue building cash, that discussion needs to happen. That said, we'll see what happens. Our focus today is continuing to invest in what's been working for us and what we've been executing over the last two, three years, which is investment in our primary -- our core markets, primarily Spain and Mexico. But I think it's a discussion that will continue to take place at the Board level.

Okay. I don't think we have any more questions on the webcast. So operator, unless there are any more questions...

Someone is asking about the same guy, Steve, about seller in the equity over the last few months. Is the sponsor selling their position? I think Oscar can answer better, but I don't think we know who is selling.

Yes. I mean we only see as it relates to the sponsor, the SPAC sponsor and what their intentions might be. I mean we only see and are aware of what -- whatever filings they make. I think they've had in the past in recent months. I think over the summer, there was a 144 filing, covering a relatively small number of shares. I don't remember Guillermo for 200, 300 shares -- but other than that, other than what's in the public on and reflected in EDGAR in terms of SEC filings, we have no visibility over what their intentions might be with respect to their ownership position in the company.

Okay. So if there are no further questions, thank you, everyone, for joining, and feel free to reach out if you have any follow-ups. Thanks a lot.

Thank you.

Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call.