Mikkel Gleerup
Analyst · the United States Securities and Exchange Commission
Yes. Just a slide on sustainability update as well. We believe that, that is important to update you guys as well on what is being done. I think we can say that the team has been expanded both in terms of competencies, but also raw muscle to develop what we need to develop. We have had several investors over the years asking us to be vetted and certified under different schemes, and that is something that our sustainability team is also working on to make sure that we are where we need to be in terms of that. But also in terms of really [ raw ] decarbonization on what we do. We have our own targets, and we are trying to be ambitious. And the road map has been defined also with the larger fleet that is coming in. And the gaps that are needed to be bridged, so to speak, they are being modeled and what to do for -- to reach our targets. We also have ongoing shore power upgrades for the O-class vessels with Wind Osprey being finalized in Q1. In terms of equipment efficiency upgrades, we're also looking at that on the O-class vessels after the energy order we did there, and we are execution, we are planning the execution for the end of Q3. In terms of biofuel, this is also a strategy we're looking at. The legacy vessels will not be able to sail on the new fuel types and the biofuel can play a role. And we are -- we have been testing with blending biofuels into the fuel mix to also have that as an asset on the sustainability radar for us and something that we can work with our clients to procure and to deliver on projects as well. And then last but certainly not least, we are also developing a road map for implementation of a human rights strategy, and that is something we have based on the old one and to be presented to the Board for final approval and then roll out across the company as well. In terms of commercial outlook, I think that our view of the market is that there is a calibration in the market, but there is also a continued momentum. We recognize that there are things that are happening in the market that is outside anyone's control at the moment but we think that there is a period of recalibration. There has also been targets in every market basically that were not achievable with the supply chain we have. So things are being recalibrated. There are also companies that are recalibrating their road maps due to local auctions and auctions that didn't go as they planned. Denmark is an example, Germany is an example. The U.K. had an example of that in the round 5, but also due to company-specific events that means that companies have to recalibrate what they can do and when they can do it. So I think that what we can say is that we are, I think the market caution is exercised and is prudent. And -- but I think also that we think that conditions and policy improvements are expected, and we have seen some of that in the markets that are -- that have redone their tenders and have gotten them right. And I think we have seen improved conditions both in Denmark, but also in the U.K. And as many others, we expect that the U.K. round 7 will be a solid round. We saw also the British government coming back with the approval of even projects without permits allowed to be participating in the round. And I think that that's certainly a new thing for that round for those auctions. So we are seeing that the governments are also trying to play a role in achieving as much as possible by 2030. So some projects are facing delays and time lines are shifting on some projects closer to 2030. Where on the other hand, we see a pretty significant pickup again in projects. As I said already, there are important auctions ahead. The AR7 is probably the most significant one. But also, we see several new early-stage markets beginning to emerge. And just this morning, there were news about offshore wind in Vietnam again, where one of the larger developers are taking now a share in one of those projects. And we see more of that. We see also test projects in Brazil starting to emerge and have been in contact as well with partners in these markets, although this is also again for the longer term and probably more into the next decade. We still have a positive outlook on the long term in the market, but -- and we believe that offshore wind will play a crucial role in the future energy mix for many different reasons but also that we are seeing that probably '27 and '28 are more challenging now than they were a year ago because when one of these bigger projects goes out of the market, then it's for sure that, that is playing a role. But what our strategy has always been to work on projects that are our primary projects, but also always to have backup. And we believe that with the strength of the fleet and the strength of the assets that we will be able to also play a strong role for our clients in the market even in those years as well. And as we see it currently, we have been developing this slide here from last time as well. We see that there is still an undersupply of vessels expected coming towards the end of the decade. And it starts first on the foundation vessels where we see an undersupply in '29 based on the projects that needs to go into the water. We also see that clients are engaging early with these projects with us and with others to ensure the right capacity for installation. But also for O&M and one of the reasons that we announced Nexra in our last call with you guys is, of course, because we have seen that the O&M market is something where we see the clients really asking for support and supply of capacity. And that is across regions where some regions have more access to O&M supply where other regions find it very difficult due to complex sites, deepwater, complex soil conditions and the biggest turbines out there. And we do believe that Nexra and our fleet strength can play a strong role in both these spaces. And if we are to look at what is really an efficient vessel. We have talked a lot about this supply, and we have shown you how we believe that the supply situation looks in the market, but more on an overall what is in there in total. But I think that here, we are trying to say how we look at the situation in terms of efficiency. And efficiency in offshore wind is really days, how many days do you take to install a project. And here, we have just said a theoretical project that we have evaluated and tried to program, how long time would it take for 2 different vessels to install this project. We have said it's 100 turbines of 15-megawatt class. It's 140 nautical miles from the site that we're installing and it's in the North Sea. If we look at the P-class vessel that can transit with 6 [ VTGs ] per round trip, then we need 17 round trips and 2.14 days per turbine. If we compare that to another standard vessel in the industry, the Gusto engine, 9,000, then they can transit with 2 turbines. They need 50 round trips and they need 2.69 days per turbine installed. So if you look at the raw numbers, the raw program, then we would need 214 days to install such a project, and they would need 269 days. But on top of that, comes project-related delays. And the longer you take to install, no matter where you start and where you end, you will have longer time and, let's say, a less favorable season. So waiting on weather, waiting on pilot, waiting on tide and stuff like that, that is something that is increasing on the less capable vessel. And we do believe that, that is converted into money in the value calculation at the clients as well. And hence, we believe that the stronger assets will be the first ones to be taken in the market because they simply drive a better value proposition to the clients. So trying to take that into the next slide, where we show you the slide we have shown you before, what is the total supply in the market? What is the total supply of newbuild vessels since 2020 and what is the total supply of legacy vessels. This is a slide that you all should be familiar with because we have shown it before. Cadeler is on the left side here with 12 vessels and currently the market leader in terms of number of vessels. If we then try to say, okay, what is the efficient vessels that are out there. And then we are looking at -- if we look at what vessels can install wind turbines, then we believe the number looks quite different. If we say what vessels can efficiently install the 15-megawatt class of turbines, then the numbers look very, very different. And at Cadeler, we are discounting a number of vessels here in terms of efficient installation, but we believe that we have 9 DEME with 2, [ Vanord ] with 1, Seaway 7 with 1, Yandenul with 1, Penta Ocean with 1, Maersk with 1, Shimitsu with 1 and Dominion with 1. But it's a significant reduction from the overall numbers. If we then look at the foundation installation, then it's an even more dramatic number we are looking into because in terms of efficient installation, then we're looking at 7 at [ Padler ], we're looking at 4 at DEME, 2 of those are only for foundations. We're looking at 2 at [ Vanord ], one of those only for foundations, and I would say, primarily foundations in the Baltic Sea due to limited weather capability, 3 at Herma, 1 at Seaway 7, 2 at Yandenul, 2 at [ Bosalis, ] 1 at Penta Ocean and 1 at Saipem. So I think that, that is our view on what is efficient vessels, and it changes the supply equation slightly and hence, also why we do believe that, especially in '29, we see an undersupply of vessels that can do efficient foundation installation compared to the number of projects that will be installed. So we have been asked for it many times, what is our view on efficient installation across the 2 components, turbines and foundations, and this is our view. I know that if you compound the numbers, we have more than the total number of vessels, and that's because some of our vessels can be converted to both -- to either foundations or turbines. And hence, they are counted in both spaces. But obviously, they can only work in one space. So if one is counting them for installing foundations, then one has to discount them from the turbine installation and hence, make that space slightly tighter. If we look at the demand for O&M, the reason we entered into that market is pretty simple. We see a steady growth in the O&M market due to a larger installed fleet. And we also see that our clients are asking us for more services in this space and the support on the bigger assets that can handle more complex sites because this is really where the bigger turbines are installed. And we have seen situations where clients have only had 1 or 2 vessels to select from to do particular service for their turbines. We are here to try to help our clients and provide them with what they need to do the work, and that's why Nexra is believed to have a pretty strong demand outlook across the years ahead of us. And as we said, the vessels on our side where we believe that there will be in the beginning, at least, an O&M future. We are looking at Wind Zaratan and Wind Scylla and Wind Keeper. Scylla and Keeper will also have some installation scope to do, Scylla in the U.S., Keeper probably primarily in Europe and then on to a future of O&M. And then the installation vessels will have patches of O&M in between installation work. We believe that the market opportunity, as I said already, is growing and it's growing significantly. We are working to strengthen the Nexra team, and I think with the Vestas contract that we now have, not only is that a proof of concept, but also it is really also now the point in time where we can start to build the Nexra team and make sure that we are able to deliver what our O&M clients they are requesting. We have gotten the question from a lot, why Nexra and why not just under the Cadeler umbrella? It is still under the Cadeler umbrella, but the reason that it's Nexra is really because we want someone -- we want a team that can speak the same language as the O&M clients on the other side. And that is something where I think that the first 3 months of Nexra has shown that, that is something that is appreciated by the clients as well and also good conversations have come from that. We believe that we are deepening the client engagement, not only across the O&M, but also into the installation space by having more touch points with our clients. And then, of course, the strategic fleet expansion with Wind Keeper, I think we already knew that there was a future for that asset with investors. And hence, we believe that both the price we could acquire, but also what we could agree with our client was both attractive enough to make this decision and hence, we did it, and we believe that, that will add value to the overall case for our investors. In terms of what the future is for Cadeler and what we are focusing on at the moment, we are really focusing on building a resilient business with a clear and consistent focus on our core competencies, also so we can handle when things don't go to plan. And I think that we are talking about the expansion. We have talked about that for a long time. And I think that the Nexra expansion was an expansion that really not only is it something that is asked for by our clients, but it's also something that stabilizes the whole Cadeler fleet due to an expected utilization stream from Nexra into the installation fleet as well. And I think as I already talked about, the latest acquisition of Keeper is one where we had the opportunity to look at an attractive price for an asset and an attractive client with a client -- sorry, an attractive contract with a client, we know. And those things together, we discussed with our Board and both we and the management team and the Board agreed that, that was attractive enough to go ahead with it. But we are, of course, also looking at what is good growth and what is not good growth. And I would say that at the moment, we are very, very happy with where we are on fleet size and what we can both across O&M, turbine installation and foundation installation. We are working in all the major regions, and we are also being asked to be a partner in the emerging markets, which is positive. That has been a strategy for us to be having early looks, so we know what is coming, not in the near or midterm, but really in the long term, but that is a positive sign that we can see that these markets that we expected to come online, they are also coming online as expected. And focusing on strategic partnerships has always been a focus for Cadeler. And I think that the latest addition of the long-term contract with Vestas is a further substantiation of that and also enabled us to maintain our backlog despite the fact that the Hornsea 4 was delayed and hence taken out of the backlog. And then really also monitor and apply new technologies. Here, we are mentioning the developing and testing of biofuel and having a strategy for that to really drive down our carbon footprint, but it also is something that will be very relevant for the whole Nexra entity in terms of having, let's say, more strategy on tooling and tools used for O&M to really make the O&M journey as efficient as possible for us and our clients. And we already are in discussions with large clients in the industry to co-develop certain tools and assets for that, that could -- and when I say assets, I mean the things that we need on the jack-ups to efficiently do the maintenance, which can, for example, be a flexible sea fastening that can range across different turbine types, for example, so we can service different components as fast as possible and as efficient as possible. So in terms of investment highlights, still sitting on the largest and most capable and versatile fleet in the industry, and we believe that the complementarity on the fleet really enables the cross utilization efficiency and project derisking across the 3 different legs that Cadeler stands on today, very experienced team. And as Peter said, we are now where we would like to be in terms of being able to execute across different things. And I think also the team has shown its flexibility and its versatility by also enabling the onboarding of Keeper at record pace and still also having it manned at record pace and getting it back to Europe, strong technical plan for the upgrades and getting it to work in the early part of next year. A resilient global platform that can handle these shifts in the market that we see. Some of them are really unfortunate, and we are finding the best possible way to support our clients with stabilizing as much as we can, and that is what the Cadeler fleet can do, but also what our team can do. We can think out of the box when things go not to plan, and we are looking forward to continue to support our clients when things don't go to plan. As I said, an undersupply of especially foundation vessels from '29 and onwards. And we see an increasing market demand, especially to the beginning of -- end of this decade and beginning of next decade. So still I believe in the long-term story for O&M -- sorry, for offshore wind and for O&M, in general also in the market with a larger need for electricity in the market, that is something that we still stand firm on. We have a strong track record in the capital markets and a record high backlog, and we believe that, that creates earnings visibility for our investors, and we continue to focus on being a good custodian of capital. So with those words, thank you for listening in, and now we open up for the Q&A.