Mitchell Krebs
Analyst · Sterne, Agee. Please go ahead
Thanks, Bridget and good morning, everybody. The earnings release we put out yesterday and the slides that go along with the call are both pretty self-explanatory and they both reflect what we think is a very solid quarter of performance by the company. So far this year we've held about 100 individual meetings with existing stockholders, potential investors, and with the analysts that cover the company, and it seems like there have been about four main takeaways we consistently hear. The first one is, that many are surprised to hear about the changes we've made to this company and almost everyone supports and applauds the strategy that we are pursuing to revamp the company. The second takeaway is that many people say they want to see more evidence of our ability to actually execute the strategy. The third thing is a lot of people say they are concerned about the debt on our balance sheet. And then the fourth, some express concern about the company's liquidity and how it would hold up that silver and gold prices remain weak. For anyone who has been following us over the past couple of years, and been listening to what we've been saying we do and comparing that to what we're actually doing, the third quarter should help validate a lot of things. These results should also go a long way toward addressing each of those investor takeaways I mentioned. For those wanting to see more evidence of our ability to execute our strategy there is plenty to point to from the third quarter. Take our costs for example, if someone can show us a precious metals mining company that is reducing costs quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year more than us, please tell us who it is, our costs for silver equivalent ounce dropped 15% year-over-year, and that's using a 60:1 ratio to calculate equivalent ounces. If you use average realized prices to calculate equivalent ounces like most other companies, our costs were $11 an ounce in the third quarter compared to around $14 an ounce a year ago. On an all-in sustaining basis our cost declined 9% from the second quarter and dropped 17% year-over-year to just over $15 per silver equivalent ounce based on a 60:1 ratio. Using average realized prices to calculate equivalent ounces our all-in sustaining costs were $13.14 per silver equivalent ounce in the third quarter. If you go back to last year 2014 full year, our all-in sustaining costs were $19.27 per ounce using that 60:1 ratio, and they were $18.34 using average realized prices to calculate equivalent ounces. Just drop one layer down for a second, let's look at Palmarejo where we all know we have a lot of things going on there this year. We bumped up our 2015 full-year production guidance and we dropped our cost guidance range for the full year. We started the year with cost guidance of $16.25 to $17.75 per silver equivalent ounce at Palmarejo. And now we're expecting that full year cost number to end up between $14 and $14.50 an ounce which is a reflection of how great the team at Palmarejo is doing and what we consider to be a big transitional year for the operation. Compared to the second quarter, Palmarejo's costs were down 14% and compared to last year's third quarter costs were down a whopping 21%. We expect costs to decline further as we continue the transition to higher grade mining in two new underground deposits. The first one is Guadalupe, where we achieved an average mining rate of more than 1,700 tons per day in the third quarter and we expect to hit the 2,000 tons per day level by year-end. And remember, we only started mining Guadalupe a little less than a year ago. And the second new underground deposit at Palmarejo is Independencia which was consolidated through the April acquisition with Paramount Gold and Silver, and is located only about 800 meters away from Guadalupe. There are two parts to Independencia, Este and O-Este which is East and West. The east part is the part of the deposit that Paramount controls and the west part is the much smaller part of the deposit located on our side of the old property boundary. Putting together the two pieces made a ton of sense for obvious reasons and allows us to unlock value sooner from our part of the deposit. The twin declines we are driving over to the Independencia deposit from Guadalupe are on-schedule. We plan to start mining from there early next year and we will process the ore then back at the existing Palmarejo processing facility. There are three things we love about Independencia Este, number one is, its grades are about 17% higher than Guadalupe. The second is, it's not subject to the existing Franco-Nevada gold stream, so margins are expected to get an extra boost from that. And number three is, we're expected to get a lot bigger from further drilling. And you probably saw we filed a new updated 43-101 technical report yesterday for Palmarejo which reflects this scenario of underground mining from Guadalupe in Independencia. And I remember having these quarterly conference calls a couple of years ago when a big concern people had was whether Palmarejo had more than a couple of years of remaining reserves. Now since that time reserves are up almost 20% despite lower prices and what we've mined since then and the average grade of silver is 32% higher and the average gold grade is 48% higher. As you can see from the technical report in the press release we've put out late yesterday, production is expected to be higher, the mine life is now much longer, costs are expected to be significantly lower, and cash flows are anticipated to be much, much higher over the next seven years, even when using much lower silver and gold price assumptions. This is all very exciting but it's still early days at Palmarejo in terms of the drilling we still need to do at both, Guadalupe-Independencia and in that 800 meter gap in between those two deposits. Now turning over to Rochester out in Nevada for a couple of minutes. The investments we've made there over the last couple of years to scale up the mine are driving double-digit production growth and costs that are lower by double-digits. We've dropped our full year guidance there as well down to $12.25 to $12.75 an ounce this year which means we are on-track for about 10% to 15% reduction in unit costs there compared to last year. And we expect Rochester to produce about 4.7 million to 5 million ounces of silver and anywhere between 55,000 and 65,000 ounces of gold, and that will be about 15% to 30% higher than last year. The permits allowing us to construct a new leach pad out there in 2017 are moving ahead according to schedule, and they are expected to be obtained in early 2016. Another important expansion initiative out of Rochester has been increasing the crushing rates from the existing in-pit crusher unit, that's now complete and that will give us a small kick here at the end of 2015 and should make a big difference in 2016 and beyond. If you just look at the slides that we've posted for this call and look at Slide 12 that summarizes Rochester and the costs on a per ton basis going back over the last four quarters or so, and you can see the trends there. They are doing a really great job out there at Rochester and hopefully there will be more to come going forward. Just for a couple of minutes we'll talk about Kensington up in Alaska. You'll note the cost did bump up there a bit in the third quarter but the trend has been a good one. And we reduced the cost guidance there also for the full year. We came into the year with guidance on costs for Kensington of $900 to $975 an ounce and now we see the full year coming in somewhere in the low $800s and that would be over $100 an ounce lower than they were last year. The big story at Kensington is the nearby high grade Jualin deposit where development got going in early August. They are now about 700 feet in and we'll start drilling Jualin from underground this winter to hopefully expand it and better define the one vein out of five that contains no resources that carrying average grade that's 3X the grade of Kensington's current reserves. And then finally, last but not least the Wharf in South Dakota, that operation is really coming on strong in the second half of the year. We reduced our full year cost guidance there too for the full year down to $700 to $750 an ounce. You'll note maybe that Wharf was the biggest generator of cash flow of any of our mines in the third quarter. And if you look at those same slides in the slide provided if you go along with the call, I think it's Slide 14, show worst cost per ton, those are definitely heading down and in the right direction as well. Since we acquired work in February from Gold Corp for about $100 million, we've announced a 39% increase in reserves, we've extended the mine life, we increased the annual production profile in the mine plan and we generated nearly $20 million in free cash flow over the last two quarters. So not a bad acquisition at all. Regarding that investor takeaway relating to concerns over the leverage we have on the balance sheet, we did announce yesterday in the earnings release that we're reducing our total debt by about $54 million, which is about 10%. The company has about $433 million of publicly traded unsecured notes 7%, 8% interest that have been trading at a huge discount to par, going back to about July. And so we took advantage of the opportunity just presented to take a big bite of our outstanding debt at a 24% discount. Now we don't like using shares to eliminate debt but with about $4.5 million of annual interest savings and with an opportunity to retire $54 million of debt. At $0.76 on the dollar it was too good of an opportunity to pass up and that makes our stockholders better off. As a result of this, net debt is expected to drop 16% percent down to $287 million. And when you compare that net debt level to our EBITDA which has been running between $30 million and $35 million a quarter the last two quarters, we believe our credit leverage ratios are heading in the right direction, especially given that we expect EBITDA to keep growing, and the fact that 98% of our remaining debt doesn't mature for another four to five years. The last investor takeaway I mentioned earlier relates to liquidity concerns. Now we all know metals prices in the third quarter were the lowest we've seen in about six years but yet our company's cash balance data about the same compared to the end of June at around $206 million. So I'd say we're doing a really good job of managing our liquidity. And as I've said now for about the past 18 months our investments in these different initiatives that reminds design to drive down our cost structure are the heaviest through the middle of next year at which point we expect cash to start to build. So there you have it, good results. There is one other piece of investor feedback from all those meetings we've had this year that I didn't mention, and that is that this company appears to be nearing a pretty significant inflection point. And I totally agree with that piece of feedback, we definitely are. And as that point draws near we anticipate putting up more quarters like the third quarter and keep doing what we're doing. At some point equity markets will notice the long-term value that is being created for stockholders of this company. Until then we'll stay focused on the things we can control on executing our strategy, on continually improving the business, on carefully managing our liquidity, and on being opportunistic when we think it's in our stockholders best interest. We believe that inflection point is right around the corner and we definitely can't wait to get there. And now, we'd be happy to take any questions you might have.