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Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 2, 2018

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Century Communities Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode [Operator Instructions]. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions [Operator Instructions]. Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Dixon, Vice President of Accounting. Mr. Dixon, please go ahead.

Scott Dixon

Analyst

Good afternoon. We would like to thank you for joining us today for Century Communities’ second quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made in the course of this call are not based on historical information, and may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described or implied in the forward-looking statements. Certain of these risks and uncertainties can be found under the heading Risk Factors in the Company's most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10-K as supplemented by our other SEC filings. Our SEC filings are available at www.sec.gov and on our Web site at www.centurycommunities.com. The Company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements that are made during this call. Additionally, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this earnings conference call. The Company's presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation, or as a substitute, to the forward information presented in accordance with GAAP. Management will be available after the call should you have any questions that did not get answered. Hosting the call today are Dale Francescon, Chairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Rob Francescon, Co-Chief Executive Officer; and David Messenger, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I will turn the call over to Dale.

Dale Francescon

Analyst

Thank you, Scott. Today on the call I will review our operating highlights and business updates. Rob will then discuss our business and markets in more detail. Afterwards, Dave will follow up with further information on our financial results, balance sheet and increased outlook for the balance of the year. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the lines for questions. Our team executed well in the second quarter of 2018 and more than doubled adjusted earnings year-over-year to $36.5 million or $1.21 per diluted share. We expanded our financial flexibility through the upsizing and extension of our credit facility and completed the Wade Jurney Homes acquisition to become the 10th largest national U.S. homebuilder based on 2017 pro forma homes delivered. Additionally, we reached record levels across majority of our operating metrics during the quarter, including home sales revenue, net new home contracts, backlog dollars and backlog value in an overall healthy homebuilding environment. This significant improvement was driven in part by accelerating growth in our acquired operations, and also from strong demand throughout our legacy markets. Furthermore, we maintained tight cost controls and drove significant operational improvements, all while finalizing the full integration of our previous acquisitions. In June 2018, we completed the purchase of the remaining 50% interest in Wade Jurney Homes, which we expect to be a solidly accretive transaction for many years to come. Wade Jurney Homes has a unique and scalable business model, which requires less capital investments and yields quicker asset terms. This has made possible by a streamlined and asset-like business model, including the sale of homes through retail outlets as opposed to model homes. This unique sales approach enhances the ability to scale and geographically expand the operations of Wade Jurney Homes in a cost effective manner. I want to take a…

Rob Francescon

Analyst

Thank you, Dale, and good afternoon everyone. During the quarter, we continued to actively pursue additional growth avenues, while focusing on expanding and improving our existing operations. Our strong second quarter performance was driven by significant growth in net new home contracts deliveries and backlog. We ended the quarter with homes in backlog up 134% to a record 3,199 homes. This backlog represents a record dollar value that was up 89% to $1 billion. Additionally, our expanded and extended credit facility with borrowing capacity now at $640 million provides us with additional flexibility and capital to act on new and accretive growth opportunities in future quarters. We continue to broaden our land positions during the quarter by sourcing well situated lots in healthy markets that meet our strict underwriting requirements. We ended the quarter with owned and controlled lots in excess of $38,000, of which approximately 50% of this land was controlled versus owned at the end of the second quarter. We believe this flexible land strategy gives us a visible pipeline for disciplined grow over the next several years. Furthermore, our diverse geographic footprint, balanced exposure to markets with solid fundamentals and various product offerings, continue to support a robust but increasingly stable growth profile for our Company. The full acquisition of Wade Jurney Homes added approximately 6,800 more lots to our owned and controlled pipeline. We are extremely pleased to now have this unique entry level builder as a wholly-owned operation under the Century Umbrella, and that Wade himself with his exceptional operating experience will remain with us as we grow the business. Wade Jurney Homes targets entry level home buyers in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, North Carolina and South Carolina with sales prices averaging $150,000. This asset like models, which offers a limited number of plans, helps this…

David Messenger

Analyst

Thank you, Rob. During the second quarter of 2018, we continue to experience strong demand trends in our legacy and acquired market, which helped grow home building revenue and adjusted gross margin to record levels. This led to net income of $33.2 million or $1.10 per diluted share, a 124% increase compared to the $14.8 million or $0.66 per diluted share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted net income excluding one-time acquisition items and purchase price accounting was $36.5 million or $1.21 per diluted share. This compared to $15.5 million or $0.69 per share in the prior year quarter. For the second quarter of 2018, our pretax income doubled to $46.5 million compared to $23.1 million in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $70.9 million compared to $32.5 million in the prior year quarter. Home sales revenues increased 82% to $522.2 million compared to $287.6 million in the prior year quarter. This improvement in revenues was mainly driven by an 84% increase in home deliveries to 1,384 compared to 753 homes in the prior year quarter. Our average selling price was $377,300 compared to $381,900 in the prior year quarter. Adjusted homebuilding gross margin percentage increased to 22.3% compared to 21.1% in the prior year quarter. This 120 basis point improvement was mainly driven by operational efficiencies and favorable mix. Similar to what we have experienced for more than three years, home input costs continue to climb. This includes labor and most materials. Everyone knows the story behind lumber and its fluctuations, which are currently on the decline. However, we are also seeing increase in concrete, roofing, flooring, paint, and most other major categories. We focus on mitigating these increases through home price appreciation, national purchasing agreements, process efficiencies and long-term supplier and trade relationships. As…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Michael Raleigh with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

First question I had was just the general demand environment. Obviously, if you -- some of the other builder result, you had broadly speaking positive but maybe strong as people are expecting, some builders pointed to intra-quarter miss, a couple points; May, in particular, being a little softer and rebounding in June, perhaps not as much enough to offset this top off the May. I was curious across your markets you witnessed or experienced any of these types of trends or if you saw more of a steady consistent backdrop throughout the last three month.

Rob Francescon

Analyst

Mike, we really saw it. Well, it obviously ebbs and flows a bit during the quarter. There was no specific trend that we would look at and say one month or one period of time was slower than another. And I think as we look at -- we were very pleased that our sales numbers were up so significantly, both overall for the Company and then when we just look at our legacy region. So all of our markets, in general, did very well and we think that's really a reflection of the fact that we’ve hand chosen these markets over the last few years and they all seem to be performing very well.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

And then I guess as a result, have you observed any material changes in incentive levels or pricing, I mean another big pricing that investors have out there, to the extent that volume is little softer and you're going into a softer period of the year that builders might act a little more aggressively. So just curious on not just across your markets, incentive level overall, but perhaps even as it relates to July as well, and getting into some of those softer second half?

Rob Francescon

Analyst

Well, I think when you look at July every year, it’s -- from a sales perspective, it’s not the homebuilders’ favorite month. But we really haven't seen any significant change in incentives. We didn't incentivize houses beyond what we would normally do and we're not anticipating the need to do that going forward.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

Then Dave I think you also said gross margins you expect for the back half at being 20% to 22%, excluding interest and purchase accounting. So I just want to make sure I heard that right, because I think in the first quarter, excluding purchase accounting, you were around 23%, this quarter ex-purchase accounting you’re around 22%. So just trying to understand that a little better, seems like it's a little bit of a lower range versus the first half. And I don’t know if Wade Jurney is impacting that or mix, or I don’t know maybe cost inflation of catching up a little bit?

David Messenger

Analyst

I think there is several things that they go into that. Historically, for the past several quarters we have been forecasting a range of 20% to 21% and then our deliveries were coming in with margin in excess of -- better than 23% in the first quarter, better than 22% in the second quarter. As we look at backlog today, there is a lot of things we got to take into account. We do have price increases coming through there will be a certain level of mix that will be impacting those numbers. But we think over the next couple of quarters as we delivered today's backlog, a range of 20% to 22% for our adjusted gross margin is reasonable.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

I guess just lastly your comment about not providing community talent going forward. Obviously, it's a metric that people find helpful, not really any count itself, but also understanding the sales pace component of the equation. Just wanted to understand, I mean, obviously the definition doesn't fit for Wade Jurney relative to your other homes, but I presume that Wade Jurney does have, unless I am not -- obviously I'm not as familiar with their model. But I assume they do operate out of communities in and of themselves. So I just wanted little bit more color around that and also future discussions around sales pace, obviously, again, very important for the community?

David Messenger

Analyst

Just to follow up on that a couple things. Wade Jurney is not signed out of community as well, there may be communities listed on a Web site that -- you can see on Wade Jurney’s Web site. When you actually think about how that model works, there is something out of store -- retail storefront primarily, it was a centralized selling effort and he could be selling a lot, one lot that is in one community and it could have 10 lots overtime community. And so it really doesn't work the same way that Century’s definition of a selling community works. And in terms of in order to providing guidance around that metric, we think that in future quarters we’ll provide you enough narrative around what our sales pace is and where we see the rest of the business going.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please go ahead.

Jay McCanless

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

The first question I had, and to the extent you're comfortable talking about it. If we take the business 12 months forward from now, what should an average price for Century with Wade Jurney and all the other price points you have in there. What should we be thinking about for an average price for the Company -- average selling price?

David Messenger

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

I think probably without getting into 2019 guidance probably the best metric for you to be using for 12 months from now and what our ASP is in backlog today. We've got 3,199 homes for almost $1 billion of an ASP of just over $300,000 that’s probably a best metric from a modeling perspective.

Jay McCanless

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

And then could you repeat what you said about the purchase accounting margin expecting for 3Q and 4Q and then also what you have in 3Q?

David Messenger

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

So in 2Q we had about $9 million that was $6 million from the UCP Sundquist transaction and $3 million related to Wade Jurney. And then looking forward to Q3 and Q4, we're expecting approximately $24 million of which there will be $4 million for the UCP Sundquist transaction. That will round out those two and would round out the guidance I provided on the first quarter. And then we have roughly $20 million from Wade Jurney over quarters three and four with more of that being heavily weighted towards third quarter.

Jay McCanless

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

And then the next question I had. Looking at the mountain and looking at the order comp being flat year-over-year there. Could you talk about the different markets inside of that Vegas, Salt Lake and Denver, and just let us know how those performed during the quarter?

Rob Francescon

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

Jay, all the markets are performing well in the Mountain region. If you look at Las Vegas, that's performing as well as we've seen it in many years. Same thing Colorado is performing very well, low inventory in this market. And Utah was an excellent market. It's really more of a timing difference why that was flat on the orders. And we were closing out various communities, because the markets have been so good there. And so now we're just in that timing difference. So as an example, in Q3, we're opening up 13 new communities in the Mountain region comprised of seven in Colorado, four in Utah and two in Las Vegas. So that was just the timing situation but the markets are very healthy in all three.

Jay McCanless

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

And then the last question I have. We've heard a couple of your competitors discuss Seattle market and talk about how things maybe catching up a little bit or slowing down a little bit there. Just wanted to see if you guys could talk about what's your thinking for spending and such that way, and also as you expand the UCP lots into California next year. What is that growth going to look like and what type of price points you're going to be focused on?

Rob Francescon

Analyst · Wedbush. Please go ahead.

So generally speaking, as you've seen us do over the last two years, we're getting our price points down in all of our markets and those markets are no different. We're still bullish on Seattle and California. If you look at Seattle, in the North and Pearson Thurston Counties and then King and Snohomish, we still have been experiencing great margins in those areas, very little sales concessions and strong demand. Candidly, the trade base there is a little choppier than some of the other areas. And so cycle times are a little bit elongated but generally speaking, the market is healthy. We’re continuing to invest in that market and again at the lower price points. Same thing in California and we have some new projects coming on throughout California that will hit both the latter half of this year as well as the early part of 2019, again at either first time buyers or first time move-up. And we think that that market is still going to remain relatively good for the foreseeable future.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

So thinking about the 1,400 increase in closing is expected for ’18. How many of those are coming from the Wade Jurney being including in your results?

David Messenger

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

We look at it on a consolidated basis that joined for -- low end of 6,500 for the business. Obviously, some of the 1,400 closing delta is from Wade Jurney. We haven’t provided a break out in terms of what regions are making up all of that change.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

So just any sense of -- we only got a small, maybe a few weeks in 2Q. So anything you can help us just to understand the cadence of how that might -- how that new division might deliver?

David Messenger

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

I think you can look at some historical numbers that we have on the Web site to see how they’ve been providing deliveries and see some coloration there. But right now in terms of the business, we think that we’ll be able to expand it, be able to grow it and it should be accretive and positive to Century’s overall business.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

And then thinking about that growth, so you got four states you’re pretty well established in, North Carolina, I think the best most established. And then obviously the entry into Texas seems like the most fertile ground of what you’ve done recently as I think Alabama as well. What the direction of the expansion for the remainder of this year. Is it filling out some of the Texas markets? And any sense of how many states or MSAs Wade Jurney could be in, let’s say two to three years out?

David Messenger

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nishu, we really believe that the basic business model is viable in most parts of the country and we think it’s very scalable. And we're currently in the process of prioritizing markets for expansion.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

And now that Wade is fully owned by Century obviously, it’s very strong partnership when it was 50-50. What is going to be the greatest change now that as of a month ago, it’s a fully consolidated entity?

David Messenger

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Really it’s the resources that we can provide. So we become extremely comfortable with the business and the operation over the last 18 months. And it was becoming more and more clear that notwithstanding the significant growth that the operation had experienced over the last few years that it could continue to be accelerated if the business had full access to all of Century’s financial and operational resources. And so that's what we're in the process of doing. And with that we think that as viable as the business was before, it becomes even more viable on a go forward scalable basis.

Nishu Sood

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

And one other one, if I could, gross margin, Dave as you were walking through the gross margin drivers, a lot of other folks have mentioned price acceleration as a driver of strong gross margin trends. You folks had a very strong gross margin here as well. But you focused more on cost management and mix. What are the pricing trends you're seeing and did those help your folks’ gross margins as well?

David Messenger

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

It's something that we're continually evaluating, but it's really for us, it's on a subdivision by subdivision level. There's -- depending on the subdivision, there may be more or less pricing power. And so we're really down to that level where we decide how we price the homes. And I think everybody in the industry has some concerns about affordability and that's why we've made a concerted effort over the last period of time to get our price points down, offer a more attractively priced home. And we think our new wholly owned Wade Jurney Homes business fits perfectly into that effort.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Maguire with Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead.

Thomas Maguire

Analyst · Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead.

Just wanted to quickly dig in there, obviously, pretty strong volume growth but would love to get thoughts on the margin piece of that business. And just how do we think about it relative to core Century on the gross margin side and any high level thoughts on the profitability of the Wade Jurney business?

David Messenger

Analyst · Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead.

Looking at the margin of Wade Jurney versus Century, it's not too dissimilar to where we operate our business.

Thomas Maguire

Analyst · Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead.

And then just separately, is Wade Jurney expands in the new markets, Arizona, the Midwest or even Florida, where they already have a presence. Is there an opportunity to bring the core Century product there in I guess semi-greenfield manner as well or it’s just Wade Jurney something we should think about in isolation?

Rob Francescon

Analyst · Zelman and Associates. Please go ahead.

No actually, we're looking at those opportunities as well. And obviously, the Wade Jurney brand operates at a significantly lower price point even than our Century complete series within the Century communities brand so we think there's opportunities to coexist in the same markets. And so that's something that we think we can leverage both sides of that where the Wade Jurney brand can come into markets where the Century brand already is and vice versa. So we see definite synergies in that area.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

Alex Barron

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

I wanted to ask about the -- obviously a lot of questions on Way Journey here. But you said their margins are comparable, would their SG&A be comparable as well and would it be higher or lower than your standalone operations?

Rob Francescon

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

They're operationally relatively comparable to ours.

Alex Barron

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

Now in terms of the -- obviously those forms are simpler, they’re standardized designs. So in terms of actual construction site whether we looking at or maybe another way to ask it is that block conversion. How quickly does a home go from some person ordering to a delivery time?

David Messenger

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

I would say that really looking at construction time going from sales to delivery, you're looking three to four months for of these houses.

Alex Barron

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

And in terms of strategy, obviously, the goal of those homes is to keep them affordable and nobody else comes close to you guys being in the mid-150s. Is the goal to -- we got cost pressure and all of that. But is the goal to try to maintain them as affordable or is the goal to raise prices. What's the main emphasis to maintain the high sales pace or to try to maximize margins on those types of homes?

David Messenger

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

It's really so. But to the extent that we can raise prices, we intend to raise prices but we also intend to remain the most affordable new home option that a home buyer can have. And that's not something that's going to change going forward.

Alex Barron

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

And in terms of end markets for them, I think you guys have set factors at which market specifically, or are you guys centering all sectors markets and is Phoenix one of them as well?

David Messenger

Analyst · Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

We've looked at a verity of opportunities in Texas as well as certain parts of Arizona. And so we're in the process now -- I mean, this is relatively new in terms of our 100% ownership and just the ability to deploy additional capital beyond what the venture had on its own. So we're in the process of prioritizing the entry into which markets right now.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is a follow up from Michael Raleigh with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

So I guess couple of follow ups to maybe just circling back to the gross margins and then actually on the SG&A, asking about gross margin from another perspective. Dave, I think it was helpful when you recognized that going into the year for the first couple of quarters, you were looking for 20% to 21%, you came in above 22 -- above 23 in the first quarter, above 22 in the second quarter, and so in effect the forward guidance for the next few quarters of raising the higher end of that range if anything recognizing some of the better strengths. But I just wanted to make sure that perhaps it's more that way to think about it rather than still being perhaps at least for conservatism or upside as opposed to anything in the backlog say that 20 is down from 2Q levels it would be little over 100 basis points drop to the midpoint. Just trying to understand if there is anything either from a mix or price cost standpoint that would push those margins down, or is it more being conservative but not just -- not as conservative as what ultimately played out in the first half?

David Messenger

Analyst

Mike, I think looking at range at 20% to 22% and given our history, we do see some strength in our numbers. But we’re not using a range of 20% to 22% -- we’re not seeing anything negative or alarming in the backlog numbers, its mortgage now trying to prepare for whether it’s mix issues or pricing issues that come through in that backlog in order to make sure we’re giving you an appropriate rate. But we’re getting anything negative that that should be seen as an alarm in our backlog.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

And I guess this on the SG&A for the second quarter you’re up 30 bp year-over-year. In the first quarter you said that Wade Jurney has similar margin, something that’s more like an operating margin. But in the terms of the SG&A going forward given that much greater higher degree of scale. How should we think about the ability to get some leverage out of that over the next couple years? Or should we expect a still just 12% type of margin, SG&A margin for to continue to build out the footprint, invest, et cetera.

David Messenger

Analyst

I would say that as I said in my prepared remarks, we expect our SG&A as a percent of homebuilding revenue to begin trending down. During the second quarter, we incurred a variety of -- hopefully final cost related to the completion and the integration of UCP, whether related to final 2.06 stay bonuses current employees, closing of offices, final integration of software and we incurred a verity of those costs. As we book our fixed component of SG&A compared to home building revenue, we saw that decline sequentially from 10.8% in the first quarter to 8.6% in the second quarter. And we expect our overall SG&A percent to continue declining as we get into third and fourth quarter and we begin to get leveraged out of the platform we built.

Michael Raleigh

Analyst

So something perhaps like in the 11% for the second half is obviously directionally sounds like how we should be thinking about things?

David Messenger

Analyst

Directionally it should be less than 12.2% and we don’t have guidance number out there, but we do expect it to be trending down into the next two quarters.

Operator

Operator

We have a follow-up question from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

Alex Barron

Analyst

Can you guys talk a little bit about the Texas region, what lead to the tremendous growth there this quarter?

Rob Francescon

Analyst

So as we’ve talked on previous calls, Alex, we've shifted our price points in Texas to go into a more affordable offering at lower price point. And so that’s starting to bear fruit and that's what we saw in the second quarter. And we see that continuing on a go forward basis as we continue to bring on new communities at those lower price points. So at that price point, we do not see any market issues right now in Texas.

Alex Barron

Analyst

Now when you talk about lower price point for your brand in sectors how lower are you starting prices?

Rob Francescon

Analyst

Well, in Houston we have some sub-200,000 and that’s on the Century side…

Alex Barron

Analyst

And in Austin?

Rob Francescon

Analyst

Austin, we have very low 200,000 and San Antonio again, sub-200,000.

Operator

Operator

Okay, I am seeing no further questions in the queue. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like the conference back over to Mr. Dale Francescon for any closing remarks.

Dale Francescon

Analyst

Thank you, Operator. And thank you again to everyone for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.