Damian Gammell
Analyst · Wells Fargo. Please go ahead
Thank you, Sarah, and many thanks to everyone joining us today to discuss our third quarter trading update. Again, apologies, we had some technical issues with our providers, so we were also disconnected, but we should make it for time now. And as was the case at quarter-one, the focus of our opening remarks will be related only to our top-line performance and I will keep my comments brief to allow for your questions. Key highlights are pulled out in the release, both by geography and by category. Overall, we are pleased with our year-to-date performance with revenue of 4% or 3% when excluding the impact of soft drinks taxes, is continued to be driven by solid growth in revenue per unit case as we continue to focus on price mix and this alongside growth in volumes year-to-date. Importantly, transactions outpace volume growth and overall we've taken both value and volume share year-to-date according to Nielsen.Now looking at our third quarter, specifically, we continued to focus on our revenue management growth initiatives driving good growth of 2% in revenue per unit case. As a reminder, we have now completely cycled the sugar tax impacts in both GB and France. So you will no longer see this called out in our revenue or in our calls on a quarterly basis. We continue to benefit from our efforts to drive the away-from-home channel, priority small packs and more and more efficient promotional activity. Our volumes declined 1.5% during the third quarter, as we had very strong volume growth of 5% in the third quarter of 2018. You may recall the fantastic weather last year in markets like Great Britain, Germany, Northern Europe, as well as the benefit from the CO2 crisis and the ensuing private label shortages in GB. This was partially offset by stronger trading in Iberia against the challenging summer last year, as well as the addition of recent innovation.Whilst we are pleased to continue to gain market share year-to-date across all geographies, we are starting to see early signs of some slowing market conditions, particularly in France and Great Britain combined with so far unfavorable weather in October. In France, despite citing the customer disruption, which has benefited our volumes year-over-year, market trends were overall softened. In fact, year-to-date, according to Nielsen, volumes in major channels are down around 3%, and while we've increased our volume share by approximately 40 bps year-to-date in France, the overall trading environment remains challenging. We are also keeping a close eye on how the macro situation in GB evolves, given the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and of course, we'll continue to update you as and when we have more clarity. Most importantly, we continue to focus on driving joint value creation with our customers and we continue to be the largest value creator in the retail channel for FMCG, growing our customers' revenues by 5% year-to-date through the end of August.Now, we will update on our portfolio innovation as we diversify to continue to become a total beverage company aligned with The Coca-Cola Company. We continue to build on last year's momentum behind Fuze Tea and have expanded the ready-to-drink coffee portfolio outside of Honest and Monster Espresso, to now include Costa coffee. The initial customer reaction to Costa available in three flavors has been positive, and so far, it is only available within GB. Coke Energy is now available in all our markets and our recently-acquired juice brand Tropico is proving popular with customers in France and Belux. We've also launched Fanta Dark Orange this Halloween, and from the end of the month, new Diet Coke festive's Clementine will be available for Christmas. We've also made great progress with our sustainability agenda and I'm particularly pleased that we've accelerated our 50% recycled PET target to 2023, two years earlier than we initially planned.We are now transitioning our Smartwater, Honest and Chaudfontaine brands to 100% recycled PET, and we will continue to reduce the amount of plastic used at our secondary packaging moving to cardboard packaging for our can multipacks rather than shrink wrap. We will continue to make investments in our business to support top line growth, including the innovations and brands and packaging I have already mentioned today. While these innovations have a positive impact on revenue, the cost of manufacturing these products is higher and so is virtually impacting our COGS per unit case from a mix perspective. This is reflected in slightly updated guidance for 2019 COGS per unit case growth of 3%, up from 2.5% previously, excluding the 1.5% impact from incremental soft drinks taxes. These are the right investments we're making for the long term, as we drive towards that goal of becoming a total beverage company for our customers and our consumers in Europe.So moving to our revised outlook for 2019. We expect to deliver solid revenue growth of approximately 3% excluding the impact of incremental soft drinks taxes and free cash flow of approximately EUR1.1 billion, both at the top end of our guidance. However, given the slower-than-expected start to the fourth quarter and slightly higher COGS per unit case growth, we now expect operating profit growth of approximately 6% and diluted earnings per share growth of approximately 10%, both on an FX-neutral basis and at the low end of our previously guided ranges. Our ultimate goal continues to be to drive sustainable shareholder returns. This is evidenced by our ongoing share buyback program and today declaring a second-half interim dividend of 15% versus last year. This translates into a 17% increase in the full year dividend and on an annualized dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%. So thank you for your time, and now Nik and I will be very happy to take your questions, and over to you, Operator. Thank you.