Sean Keohane
Analyst · Mizuho
Thanks, Erica. Fiscal year 2025 certainly developed differently than we expected just 1 year ago. Automotive production in the Western economies contracted in 2025 and elevated Asian tire imports into Western geographies continue to persist. Additionally, global manufacturing PMI was in or near contraction territory for most of 2025, and the expected interest rate cut cycle was slower than expected, leaving the housing and construction sector in a trough. In addition, 2025 was characterized by global trade turbulence, which is making it very difficult to determine long-term durable demand levels. As we look to 2026, we don't yet see signs of improvement across these dimensions. While trade policy is trending toward regionalization, and this aligns well with our model of make in region, sell in region, it will likely take some time for end markets and supply chains to find their new normal. In 2026, we now expect light vehicle auto production in North America and Europe to decline for a third year in a row. In terms of the tire sector, the persistent elevated level of tire imports from Asia has reduced domestic tire production in the Americas and Europe, thereby creating a more challenging competitive environment for tire manufacturers and their suppliers, including carbon black producers. Furthermore, global manufacturing PMI continues to straddle 50 with no clear catalyst to move firmly above 50 and into expansionary territory. With this as a market backdrop, we expect adjusted earnings per share in fiscal year 2026 to take a step back from our strong performance in 2025. Acknowledging there is significant uncertainty in both end market demand and the range of outcomes in our annual tire contract negotiations, we expect fiscal year 2026 adjusted earnings per share to be between $6 and $7. Our range includes various scenarios related to volumes and pricing outcomes across our businesses. The lower end of the range would reflect a weak demand environment and pricing pressures in 2026. The higher end of the range would reflect the ability to largely offset pricing pressures with volumes, optimization, cost savings and benefits from our growth investments. As we think about the segment outlook for fiscal 2026, in Reinforcement Materials, we are currently negotiating our calendar year contracts. While we expect outcomes to be varied across customers, our expectation is that overall contract outcomes will be lower than the prior year. Our customers are facing challenges in the Western regions from Asian tire imports along with macroeconomic uncertainty and are pushing hard on suppliers given these dynamics. This is causing challenging contract discussions with our customers that are taking longer to close. In addition, I would say the utilization situation in the Western regions is similar or slightly worse than the prior year. Tire imports from Asia have increased modestly year-to-date into the U.S. They've decreased modestly into South America, and they have risen more materially into Europe in 2025. Therefore, it is a challenging picture for local production of tires in the Americas and Europe, which in turn impacts our business in those regions. Our capacity in Asia enables participation in demand in Asia, but it is a competitive market at this time, requiring us to balance volumes and margins. Regarding Performance Chemicals, in 2025, we have seen rather strong demand in Asia, muted levels of demand in the Americas and challenging demand patterns in Europe. We anticipate these trends will continue in 2026. The challenges in Europe are also related to end product imports from Asia into Europe, which is impacting demand pull-through from our customers in the region. We are seeing positive demand in Asia as our customers benefit from strong export levels, and we're utilizing our capacity there quite well. While end market demand in construction and auto remains in a cyclical trough, we are seeing strong and improving demand in attractive end markets like battery materials as well as specific sectors, including infrastructure and alternative energy, digitalization and consumer-driven applications. We expect these growth areas, along with continued optimization across the segment to enable year-over-year growth in segment EBIT. We expect cash flow from operations to remain strong and our net debt to EBITDA to remain in a similar range to 2025. We expect the cash flows from operations will fund our capital expenditures, a strong dividend and share repurchases in the range of $100 million to $200 million. As we think about our longer-term outlook and the targets we set for 2027 at our Investor Day last year, it is clear that the assumptions we had 1 year ago are not playing out as planned. The targets were established based on a certain set of assumptions for our key end markets. Specifically, automotive production was forecasted to grow at a higher rate than we now see, and the Western markets were projected to be positive, which has not been the case in 2025 or the 2026 forecast. We expected tire production to grow globally, including in the Western markets, but the persistent level of Asian tire imports has impacted demand for our product in the Americas and Europe, resulting in a negative regional mix. With the change in the U.S. administration's policy towards electric vehicles, the outlook for batteries in the U.S. has also been reduced. And finally, the interest rate cut cycle that was projected at that time has been slower to develop, resulting in a delayed pick up in housing and construction sector. In addition to these end market factors, the global trade negotiations are creating significant uncertainty, and we have not yet seen a stable period to interpret a new normal for our key end markets. Given where we are today and our expectation for 2026, the implied recovery needed to achieve these targets by 2027 is not expected. We will, of course, monitor the external environment and its impacts on our business and continue to update you as our visibility improves. Certain of our end markets are suffering from cyclical headwinds, particularly the automotive and the building and construction sector, but we expect volumes in these applications will improve over time as interest rates are cut and strengthen the consumer. The biggest dynamic that is yet unclear is the impact of Asian tire imports on tire production volumes in the Western markets. At this point, we are observing mixed signs. In the U.S., there is a range of tariff levels that impact tires and antidumping duties have been levied on certain producers. We have not seen a decrease in imports into the U.S. based on the most recent data, which is year-to-date July, and it remains too early to determine if these actions will have a material impact on the flow of tires. In South America, we are seeing some evidence that trade actions are having a positive impact on the level of tire imports into Brazil. Currently, there are tariffs on passenger car and truck tires as well as antidumping duties on tires from certain countries, including China and Thailand. On a year-to-date basis through August, we have seen a decline in tire imports into Brazil. So that sign is encouraging. In Europe, there are very modest tariffs in place at this time on passenger car and truck tires. The EU is currently investigating allegations of dumping of passenger car tires from China and potential provisional measures may be introduced as early as December 2025. On truck tires, there are currently antidumping duties in place. Whether these levels are sufficient to change trade flows remains unclear. In addition to trade policy by different countries, we are also observing that the global tire majors appear to be taking steps to improve competitiveness and defend their Tier 2 brands. Both trade policy and actions by the global tire majors to defend their brands could have a favorable effect on tire production in the Western regions, but the magnitude and timing remain uncertain at this time. While there is uncertainty from the global trade dynamics and its impact on our end market demand, we are focused on leveraging our strengths to navigate the situation and position Cabot for long-term success. It starts with our capability as a strong operator. Over the past decade, we have created significant value through disciplined execution of our operating platform of commercial and operational excellence. In this turbulent time, our efforts on operational excellence will skew more towards yield and cost rather than asset availability. On the commercial excellence front, our strategy will seek to balance pricing and volume, and we will remain laser-focused on executing in key end markets where there are favorable tailwinds. As a global leader in our respective product lines, we have a large network of competitive assets and leading technologies that enable optimization to best serve our customers and maximize returns. In the current environment, our focus will be on global asset optimization, efficiency programs and cost reductions. Despite the more challenging environment, we expect cash flow and liquidity to remain strong, and our investment-grade balance sheet offers great strategic flexibility to execute our Creating for Tomorrow strategy. And finally, we will continue to be disciplined in our allocation of capital. We expect to deploy capital against high confidence strategic growth areas such as battery materials while maintaining a meaningful return of capital to shareholders. Cabot is well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty, and this management team brings a track record of experience and disciplined execution, both of which are important in these dynamic times. Thank you, and I will now turn the call back over for our question-and-answer session.