Sean D. Keohane - Cabot Corp.
Management
Sure. So, maybe I'll start with a view of the market, Kevin. I think, if you just look broadly across the tire market, global growth is expected to be in the 2% to 3% range, generally in line with GDP. And you'll see some spread there, as you look across the more developed geographies, EMEA, the Americas and Japan, we see rates that might be a bit below as tire imports and lower regional GDP growth rates push the number down a bit. And then in the emerging geographies, China, South Asia, we see rates higher, as these are typically tire exporting regions and then also have higher growth rates. But overall, the global number, you can think about it in that range. And I think this is very consistent with the tire makers' view on this, if I look at what they're reporting and talking about, looking at growth rates in this same range. They have called out that there has been some lift, the tire maker is in their Q1 and expected in the first half of calendar year, due to early buying, ahead of the price increases that they are putting into the market that I talked about earlier. So they're certainly talking about this in terms of the profile for the year. If we then just kind of go from there and talk a little bit about how it's playing out regionally for us, I would start with Europe. I would say that remains pretty solid and the tightening supply demand situation is continuing to, I think, put us in a strong position here and we're viewed as the real leader in this business and a reliable supplier for our customers. So I would expect over time that, that will continue to look pretty good for us. North America, I would say remains stable. Recently, there was a negative determination on the TBR tariffs for Chinese imports, you might remember that those were first announced, but ultimately, there was a negative determination there. And so perhaps that might may be softened a bit the long-term outlook, there might have been a view that that might, on the margin, increased tire production in the region a bit. But it looks like that probably will not happen, but that's probably a bit of – more of on the margin effect. I think South America is interesting, it's certainly been a very weak macro environment in the last couple of years, but we are seeing that beginning to turn and we saw that reflected in our numbers for the Americas in this quarter. We increased in the Americas 11% and that was significantly driven by an increase in South America. So we're happy to see that after a couple of years of, frankly, pretty tough numbers there. If we look across Asia, I think the story in China continues to be one of pretty strong demand. The Chinese economy, the Chinese government continues to drive stimulus into the economy and then there are certain regulations that are in place that I think they're providing a bit of bump in terms of overall demand, things like not being able to overload trucks any longer, leading to more trucks on the road to haul the same amount of freight and therefore more tires rolling on the road. So things like that, I think are helping us here. And our view in the long-term here is that there is certainly more stringent environmental enforcement across China. And given the level of environmental controls that we have in our plants, I think this in the long run will position us very well in the eyes of our customers, as not only the reliable supplier but the one that's in compliance with, again, these sort of increasingly more stringent enforcement actions by the Chinese government. So, I think, that's a bit of a walk around the region and how we're seeing it. And it lines up pretty well, I think, with how the tire guys are seeing the year play out.