Patrick M. Prevost
Analyst
James, I believe that the -- that our customers, similar to us, have been very cautious. We've been expecting a recovery for more than a year. And we always feel like we're on the brink of it happening, and then we go back into a mode where consumer confidence is holding us back and either a -- through the OEM or the replacement markets where we're seeing limited recovery. And additionally, we believe it's become a little global in its nature. When in the past we could count on Asia growing steadfastly, right now, Asia has become a slightly more volatile as well. If I look at the long-term trend, I would say that we've gone through several decades of history, and we see a very robust 4% growth trend for tire demand and indirectly then, of course, for carbon black. And we've seen several periods over those last 25 years that we've studied more in-depth where, over periods of 1 to 2 years, and in one case, actually, I think it was 3 years or so, we saw flattish demand. And then after these periods, we saw a fairly significant recovery that basically brought us back to the trend line, which means that we saw growth beyond that 4% level to make up. Now we believe that we're back in one of these periods of slow-to-flattish growth. And it's been now protracted, so I believe that, at some point in time, demand will kick in. We believe that, on the replacement side, people have been stretching the use of their tires beyond a safe level, and we have some anecdotal evidence of that. But of course, there's no way you can lead a horse to drink if it doesn't want to drink, so we're still waiting for that confidence to return. And I think that, if you speak to our customers on the tire front, you will be getting similar indications. And in that respect, I believe, the -- that the inventory pipeline is pretty weak right now. Everybody -- nobody is going to take a risk considering the false starts that we've had in the last year or so.