Earnings Labs

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)

Q2 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 21, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Cracker Barrel Second Quarter 2012 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and also will be available for replay today from 2 p.m. Eastern Time to March 7, 2012, at 12:59 a.m. Eastern by dialing (719) 457-0820, entering passcode 7064033. And now at this time for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the conference over to Barb Gould. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Barbara Gould

Management

Thanks, Kathy. Good morning, and welcome to Cracker Barrel's Second Quarter Fiscal 2012 Conference Call and Webcast. This morning, we issued a press release announcing our second quarter results and outlook for the 2012 fiscal year. In this press release and on this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to exclude charges and tax effects of the proxy contest concluded at the company's recent Annual Meeting of Shareholders. The company believes that excluding these charges and tax effects from its financial results provides information that may be more indicative of the company's ongoing operating performance while improving comparability to prior periods. This information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP. The last page of the press release includes a reconciliation from the non-GAAP information to the GAAP financials. The press release can be found in the Investor section of our website, crackerbarrel.com. In that press release and during this call, statements may be made by management of their beliefs and expectations of the company's future operating results or expected future events. These are what are known as forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and in many cases, are beyond management's control and may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We urge caution to our listeners and readers in considering forward-looking statements and information. Many of the factors that could affect results are summarized in the cautionary description of risks and uncertainties found at the end of this morning's press release and are described in detail in our reports that we filed with or furnished to the SEC. We urge you to read this information carefully. We also remind you that we do not comment on earnings estimates made by other parties. In addition, any guidance or outlook we provide or statements we make regarding trends speak only as of the date they are given, and we do not update or express continuing comfort with our guidance, outlook or trends except in broadly disseminated disclosures such as this morning's press release, filings with the SEC or as otherwise required by law. On the call with me this morning are Cracker Barrel's President and CEO, Sandy Cochran; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Larry Hyatt. Sandy will begin with a review of the business, and Larry will review the financials and outlook. We will then open the call up for questions and Sandy will return to close. Sandy?

Sandra Cochran

Management

Thanks, Barb. Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report on our second quarter results, which were better than we expected, mostly on the strength of our sales performance. We're seeing the positive effects of our various sales driving initiatives coming together and generating momentum in our business. During the quarter, we saw a continuation of the sequential improvement in sales and traffic trends, and traffic in the second quarter was positive for the first time in over a year even after adjusting for the favorable effects of a milder winter weather. We also outperformed the industry, leading the KNAPP-TRACK casual dining index for both sales and traffic by a considerable margin. As a result, despite increases in commodity costs and the anticipated additional investment in marketing spending this quarter, our diluted EPS before proxy cost was equal to last year's second quarter and ahead of our expectation. Larry will review the financial results for the quarter in more detail, and I'll spend most of my time this morning updating you on the progress we're making on the strategic initiatives. But I'd like to take a moment at the outset to pay tribute to our founder, Dan Evins, who passed away on January 14. Danny retired at the end of 2004, and the people who knew and worked with Danny have a lot of stories about those times, many of them quite funny and filled with respect for what Danny was able to accomplish in creating and building Cracker Barrel. With his focus on honest values such as an insistence on quality products at a fair price and genuine Southern hospitality, he created in Cracker Barrel a unique, authentic experience that fostered lasting connections with our guests. How Danny thought about our guests and his business from the beginning is captured…

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Good morning, everyone. And thank you, Sandy. I would like to begin by discussing our financial performance for the second quarter of fiscal 2012 and then our outlook for the third quarter and the 2012 fiscal year. In this morning's release, we reported our financial performance for the quarter and year-to-date on a GAAP basis and adjusted for charges related to the recently completed proxy contest. Adjusted for those charges, we reported net income for the second quarter of $27.9 million or $1.20 per diluted share. In comparison, our net income in the prior-year quarter was $28.8 million or also $1.20 per diluted share. Our revenue in the quarter was $673.2 million compared to $640.3 million in last year's second quarter. Restaurant revenues increased 5.2% to $503.5 million and retail revenues increased 5% to $169.7 million. Comparable store restaurant sales increased 3.5% as traffic increased 1.1% and average check increased 2.4%. The increase in average check reflected menu price increases of approximately 2.2% and a favorable mix impact of 0.2%. Comparable store retail sales increased 3.4% in the second quarter. As indicated in this morning's release, the absence of inclement weather in this year's second quarter versus the prior-year quarter contributed to the increase in comparable store traffic and sales. Our total cost of goods sold in the quarter was 35% of revenue, a 70 basis point increase over the prior-year quarter. Our restaurant cost of goods was 27.5% of restaurant sales compared to 26.6% in the prior-year quarter. Food commodity costs were up approximately 6% in the quarter compared to the prior year, which was more than 2.5x our increases in menu prices. Costs for beef, eggs, seafood and coffee were up sharply from last year. Our retail cost of goods was up slightly to 57.1% of retail sales…

Sandra Cochran

Management

We'll be happy to take your questions now.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go first to Brad Ludington of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Brad Ludington

Analyst

I wanted to ask on the TV ad campaign. You said that you expect, Sandy, to start this back up later in the year. Can you share a little bit more, specifically on timing, is that going to be in the fourth quarter or could it be third and fourth or how does that -- how do you expect that to come out?

Sandra Cochran

Management

Well, thank you, Brad, for the comment about the quarter. And, yes, we were pleased with the results of the ad campaign in the second quarter. As I had laid out, what we intended to do this year was to concentrate our spending in the second and fourth quarter when our guest visits were the highest and our sales opportunities, therefore, the highest. So I would expect to go back into the market, so that the end of the third and through the fourth is when we'll be back in again with TV and radio again.

Brad Ludington

Analyst

Okay, good. And then on the labor management system, the rollout was completed this past quarter, I believe. How do you -- it looks like most of the savings from that were offset from service level initiatives the quarter. Do you expect the management system to better offset those initiatives going forward, or should we expect to continue to see pressure like that?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Brad, to specify, the savings that we saw in the labor management system were largely offset on the labor line due to higher workers' compensation expense versus last year. And the reason for that higher workers' comp expense has to do with an adjustment to the actuarials done last year.

Sandra Cochran

Management

So we do plan, Brad, to pursue additional opportunities in both to continue to enhance labor management and then some other food production areas and training for employees. So we've got a number of other cost initiatives ongoing.

Operator

Operator

We'll move next to Joe Buckley of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Joseph Buckley

Analyst

Question on the enhanced operating performance. Is it tied to last year's Seat-to-Eat initiatives? Are we seeing the benefits of that coming through on somewhat of a delayed basis? And related to that, I think you mentioned a small capital investment that was made to enhance the operating capabilities. Could you elaborate a little bit on that, please?

Sandra Cochran

Management

Sure, Joe. First of all, yes, I think Seat-to-Eat was one of several contributors to the performance in the quarter. So I think that between the marketing messaging, the progress we made on our menu strategy and our retail sales, but when you go to the operating platform, I think the enhancements that Seat-to-Eat provided allowed us to handle the volume, for example, on Thanksgiving Day, and to provide a consistent experience, and then you couple that with the training that we did over the past few quarters with our entire staff about the guest experience and how to improve that. I think all of those played a factor in contributing to the results. In terms of the capital investment, it was less than $2 million, and it was largely things like some additional technology in the back of the house, some additional printers, some additional monitors, some adjustments we made to some of the stores in the chain, which allowed us to more consistently deliver the guest experience.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll move to Robert Derrington of Morgan Keegan.

Robert Derrington

Analyst

A couple questions to kind of tie together. Obviously, it appears as though, Larry, specifically the cash, has built year-over-year. Is there a strategic plan or use for that, or is it just simply not having stepped up and repurchase shares? And as it relates to that, how does that tie in with the performance in the new stores and the fact that you've got 2 stores that are pushed back a little bit? Is that part of the reason, obviously, why the cash is up as well?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Yes. Bob, the movement of the opening of the 2 stores from the end of the current fiscal year to relatively early in the next fiscal year's a relatively minor contributor. As you may recall, we were saying in the first quarter that we expected our capital expenditures to be in the rate of -- in the range of $90 million to $100 million, now we're saying $85 million to $95 million. So there's some minor movement as a result of the movement of the store openings, and additionally, our ability to reduce some CapEx spent elsewhere. As a result of our strong financial performance, our management of accounts payable, our management of retail inventories, we did end the quarter with more cash than we ourselves anticipated as a result of the proxy contest. And then our subsequent quarter end quiet period, we were hurt not in the market buying stock in the second quarter.

Operator

Operator

And next we have Bryan Elliott of Raymond James.

Bryan Elliott

Analyst

Just a quick question on the advertising swing. If you could help us with the sense of what the deltas might be, Q3 and Q4, given the change in the spending, just some range there, maybe playing off the 80 bps delta that we saw here in Q2.

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Sure, Bryan. We anticipate that our advertising spend in the third quarter will be down versus the third quarter of the prior year of order of magnitude, $1 million to $2 million and anticipate in the fourth quarter, our advertising spend versus the prior-year quarter to be roughly flat.

Bryan Elliott

Analyst

Okay. So -- and $1 million to $2 million would be on a base of...

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

On a base -- our third quarter spend last year was in the, like $11 million to $13 million range.

Bryan Elliott

Analyst

So, okay. So it was mainly this quarter, then. There really isn't much. Little bit, but okay. All right.

Operator

Operator

And Steve Anderson with Miller Tabak has the next question.

Stephen Anderson

Analyst

My next question -- my question is with regards to the comparable sales, and I think, Larry, I had asked you this question before. Were you able to quantify the jump in same-restaurant sales in some of the areas that did not have television advertising support before?

Sandra Cochran

Management

No. Because we -- first of all, Steve, thanks for the congratulations. No, we weren't able to quantify it, we were -- it was national. So although we lose our ability to compare, we do think that by bringing the message deeper into the market was important. We're committed to continuing to support more of our stores and continue the strategy, and we were happy with the performance.

Operator

Operator

And next you have Chris O'Cull of SunTrust Bank.

Christopher O'Cull

Analyst

Sandy, it doesn't appear that traffic improved during the time period that you ran the national cable advertising. Were you surprised that traffic wasn't stronger during that 4-week period, given the messaging?

Sandra Cochran

Management

No, I think relative to KNAPP-TRACK, what you'd see is we did outperform the industry. One of the contributors to that was the marketing messaging. I was pleased to see that the performance continued in January after we were out of the market, which is what we had hoped we'd see. But we had a lot of things going on. The improvements in the operating platform, the progress we were making on the menu with DLS [ph] and our promotion, so -- our retail assortment, there were a lot of contributors to the quarter, but overall, I was very pleased with the quarter.

Christopher O'Cull

Analyst

Do you in -- I want to make sure I was clear. Do you expect to run national cable during the fourth quarter as well this year?

Sandra Cochran

Management

It's a new strategy. We want some time to better understand it, so I'm not going to commit until we've reached definitive conclusions. But everything is on the table.

Christopher O'Cull

Analyst

Okay. And just one last one, Larry. Why did stock compensation increased so much year-over-year during the quarter? And do you expect that to continue in the back half?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

The -- Chris, let me get back to you on that one, okay?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll go back to a follow-up from Brad Ludington.

Brad Ludington

Analyst

Larry, I got a question on the -- we've got the EPS guidance of $0.70 to $0.75 for the third quarter. Is there a same-store sales range or assumption built into that?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Brad, we said that we are anticipating that our same-store sales growth for the year would be a positive 1% to 2%, with menu price increases in the range of 2%. Roughly, that works out to the back half of the year; traffic, approximately flat for the third and fourth quarters. We think that given our susceptibility, particularly to -- in the summer travel season to potential increases in gasoline prices, that it is appropriate to be suitably cautious about our third and fourth quarter traffic outlook.

Brad Ludington

Analyst

Okay, very helpful. And then on the second quarter -- I'm sorry if I missed this, but did you mention what gift card sales were? Were they up, down or in between during the quarter?

Sandra Cochran

Management

There was an improvement in our gift card sales from where it had been. We didn't disclose the amounts or the specifics beyond that, but I think that was partly driven by some new enhancements that we made to our program, specifically holiday-themed and open-denomination cards which we used.

Operator

Operator

And next we move to a follow-up from Robert Derrington.

Robert Derrington

Analyst

One for you, Larry, and one quick one for Sandy. On the proxy contest cost during this past quarter, it looks as though they came in higher than kind of the original level of expectation at $0.10 a share. Any kind of color on that? What was higher than expected?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Bob, that was about $0.02 above what we had anticipated in the first quarter conference call, which works out to be about $500,000 to $600,000. And that was fees for various professionals.

Robert Derrington

Analyst

Got you, okay. And then it looks like depreciation guidance is a little bit lower, looks like tax rate guidance is a little bit higher, those kind of wash. But as we -- I'm still trying to think through kind of the company's plan in use of the larger than expected build in cash. Is there some strategy there why at $119 million you've got what certainly is much larger than last year and what typically is larger than you typically have on the balance sheet?

Sandra Cochran

Management

Well, Bob, so as Larry said, this cash level was higher than even we had anticipated. And what I can say at this point is that we're committed to a balanced approach of continuing to invest in the business and a combination of dividends, debt repayments and share repurchases.

Robert Derrington

Analyst

Okay. I'm going to jump in because we're kind of past the first round. On the new store, Sandy, are you generally pleased with the performance and the cost that it takes to build? Are these smaller stores, the newer ones you're building now? Are your sales acceptable? How do you look at the returns there?

Sandra Cochran

Management

Well -- and I am generally pleased with the recent new store openings, overall. We have, I think, done a good job of both modeling the sales forecast in the markets and being more precise and accurate about anticipating what the sales expectations are. And then secondly, reducing our cost. We've got a number of initiatives in place to further reduce the investment and to improve the productivity in both our new stores and our existing stores, so I am optimistic that we'll have more to report as we continue with those initiatives. But in general, yes, I'm pleased with the progress that we're making.

Robert Derrington

Analyst

Well, it certainly seems to all come together.

Operator

Operator

And next we'll move to a follow-up from Chris O'Cull.

Christopher O'Cull

Analyst

I just had a follow-up regarding guidance. Larry, the comp in the commodity inflation guidance for the back half of the year is similar to the first half results, yet you seem to be expecting stronger earnings year-over-year, even when you exclude the extra week. I guess my question is, what's the driver of earnings growth year-over-year in the back half?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Well, Chris, while our commodity guidance for the full year has remained the same at 5.5% to 6.5%, it was in the 5 -- I'm sorry, it was around 6% in the second quarter, which as we had indicated in the first quarter, we anticipated would see our highest year-over-year increases in commodity costs. And so that -- we believe on a year-over-year basis, there will be some moderation in commodity cost increases in the third and fourth quarters. We additionally expect that our cost savings initiatives, as Sandy discussed them earlier, will continue to show results in the back half of the year. And finally -- it's just we don't have -- we don't anticipate the negative comparison for workers' comp on the labor line that we saw in the second quarter.

Christopher O'Cull

Analyst

Okay. What was the commodity inflation for the first quarter? Do you have that?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

If I remember, it was in the -- it's a high 5. First quarter was about 5.5%.

Operator

Operator

And our next follow-up will come from Steve Anderson.

Stephen Anderson

Analyst

I just wanted to see -- you may have mentioned it during the call, but I know last quarter, you said I think you had saved about $0.03 a share -- no, $0.02 per share on the initial rollout of the labor management system. Can you quantify how much of a gain on EPS you have made for this quarter?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

Yes. I believe what we said in the first quarter, and I know that what we are saying now is that we had anticipated a savings in the 10 to 20 basis point range. And as I noted in my remarks a little earlier, that we actually saw a reduction in wage expense of about 30 basis points in the second quarter versus the second quarter of the prior year.

Stephen Anderson

Analyst

Okay. And it's exclusively through the new labor management system or is there other -- something else we should account for?

Lawrence Hyatt

Management

It is largely a result of the labor management system, Stephen.

Operator

Operator

And it does appear at this time, there are no further questions. So, Ms. Cochran, I'd like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

Sandra Cochran

Management

All right, thank you. Thank you, all, for joining us today. We're pleased with the first half of our fiscal 2012, which has exceeded our expectations as we've made significant progress executing against our key strategic priorities. While challenges remain in the external environment, we're encouraged as we head into the second half of the year, and I remain confident that we have the right strategy and the right leadership in place to move the brand forward and drive shareholder value. We appreciate your interest and support.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today's conference call. We'd like to thank you for your participation.