Leah Stearns
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Bob. Turning to slide eight, segment, operating profit for advisory services was nearly flat despite a 5% net revenue decline. The revenue shortfall reflects continued pressure in high margin sales and leasing businesses, which we offset with discipline cost management, strong GSE servicing activity and elevated OMSR gains, as well as growth in the other advisory lines of business. Overall, our advisory segment operating profit margin expanded about 100 basis points compared with a year ago. Excluding the OMSR gains in both years, the margin improved 20 basis points to about 17.2%. As expected, global leasing revenue remained under pressure declining 17% due primarily to weak office leasing in the Americas. We did see modest sequential improvement in America's office leasing, as revenue fell 47% versus the 58% decline we experienced in the fourth quarter. Activity were stronger and other geographies and property types. For example, APAC leasing rose a healthy 11% as retail and industrial jumped 25% and 38%, respectively, while office was flat with a year ago. EMEA leasing grew 4% reflecting surging industrial demand, which outweighed moderate office and retail declines. Notably, China and Australia, where the pandemic remains well in check, have seen office occupancy return to pre-COVID levels, which has coincided with improving leasing trends in these markets. Advisory sales continued to improve sequentially declining just 9% versus the 16% decline in the fourth quarter. This improvement was paid by APAC or sales get just 2%, reflecting particularly robust retail and industrial activity. Americas and EMEA sales fell around 10% and 13% respectively, due primarily to sharply lower office sales. Excluding the sales and leasing business lines, net revenue rose 7% and comprise nearly half of the advisory segments Total net revenue. commercial mortgage origination revenue rose nearly 14% in the quarter, reflecting strong GSE lending including for affordable housing. This activity also reflects the benefit of continued strong refinancing and a pickup in construction activity. As a result of the strong pace of loan origination, our loan servicing portfolio increased 19% to nearly $285 billion, while servicing revenue rose over 21%. Valuation revenue was up 8%, activity was particularly strong in the Pacific region where valuation revenue increased over 35%. And finally, property management net revenue grew over 2%, primarily driven by expanded and new client relationships in APAC. This offset a modest decline in the U.S. as we exited a low margin contract and transferred a few accounts to our local facilities management business in GWS. Moving to slide nine, global workplace solutions revenue and net revenue edged up 4% and 1% respectively, on a net revenue basis facilities management Rose 4%, while project management decreased 7%. The decline in project management was driven by the legacy advisory project management business. Project work for these clients tends to be tied to space that out resulting from new leases, and that should improve as leasing markets recover. Revenue associated with GWS contractual clients was at moderately in the quarter. Modest top line growth coupled with continued discipline in cost management and the benefit of transformation initiatives undertaken in 2020, lead to segment operating profit growth of 42%. As we mentioned last year, Q1 did include an $11 million drag from the reduced scope of a client account, adjusting for this unique item, segment operating profit was still up 29%. Importantly, we have seen a meaningful ramp in our facilities management new business pipeline, and it now exceeds the year end 2019 level. The acceleration since year end has been broad based and diversified across geographies, industry sectors, notably life sciences, manufacturing and logistics, professional services and technology clients and among property types, including data centers, retail, office and manufacturing facilities. Turning to slide 10. Our real estate investment segment generated $61 million of segment operating profit, an $18 million increase from Q1, 2020. Investment management revenue grew 9% to $132 million. This revenue growth was fueled by a 16% increase in asset management fees generated by a strong growth in assets under management, which reached a new record level of over 124 billion, as well as stronger incentives and development fees, as well as co-investment gains. In addition, we recorded a $24 million benefit from an accounting change related to the valuation of unlisted assets, which should help reduce earnings volatility going forward. This partially offset lower carried interest which declined $14 million to about $5 million in the quarter. Operating profit for this business line rose to $69 million, an increase of over 200%. Development operating profit fell to $9 million. This decrease was primarily due to the timing of certain assets sales, which were particularly strong in the prior year first quarter. On a trailing 12 month basis, development operating profit has grown about 36% are in process development portfolio reached a new record at $15 billion. Importantly, three asset types that remain in strong demand, multifamily, industrial and healthcare. Plus office buildings that are at least 90% leased, comprise more than 80% of this portfolio. Our development pipeline also grew 11% from year end to $6.8 billion. Lastly, Hana's higher operating loss primarily reflects certain deal costs and software write-downs associated with the industrious transaction. We remain on course to close the increase in our industrial stake from 35% to 40%, during the second quarter. Turning to slide 11. Let's now take a look at our new qualitative outlook for the year. Transaction activity is improving more quickly than we initially anticipated. This is especially true for global property sales and leasing outside the Americas. As a result, we have raised our outlook for 2021 transaction revenue growth to the low double digit range. Earlier we had expected growth in the mid to high single digits. We expect the rebound and transaction revenue to be most pronounced in the second quarter, since we will be comparing against the most depressed levels of the pandemic. Across the rest of our advisory businesses, we continue to expect high single digit growth. We expect improved profitability as well given the revival of transaction revenue. For 2021, we anticipate our advisory segment operating profit margin on net revenue will slightly surpass the 19.7% pre-pandemic peak achieved in 2019. Moving to GWS. We are raising our expectations for segment operating profit, while maintaining our revenue forecasts in the high single digit range. We are benefiting from exceptional cost discipline, which we believe will allow us to reverse certain temporary expense cuts more slowly than originally anticipated. As a result, we now expect GWS segment operating profit to grow in the mid to high teens range this year. Looking at REI, we expect this segment to build on its record profitability contribution in 2020, with both investment management and development poised for sharply improved performance. In investment management, we expect revenue to slightly surpass 2020's $475 million, with continued increases in recurring revenue being offset by lower carried interest. We expect this business lines profitability, which totaled $140 million in 2020 to rise from that level at a mid to high teens pace. We project U.S. development profit to rise by more than 30% compared with last year's $150 million level. Our improved outlook reflects a strong pace of monetization and higher property valuations than we originally projected. Our in-process portfolio continues to grow with an emphasis on warehouse and distribution space. For our U.K. multifamily development business, we expect the pace of construction to pick up as COVID restrictions lift and reiterate our earlier expectations for this business. Profitability is expected to be about $15 million higher than the $3 million generated in 2020. Due to our improved revenue outlook and the benefit of transformation initiatives completed last year, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin on net revenue to modestly exceed the 14% level achieved in 2019. This includes an expected uptick in corporate expenses, primarily related to higher performance based stock compensation and certain OpEx investments for growth initiatives. All in, as Bob indicated, we now expect our 2021 adjusted EPS to meaningfully surpass our pre-pandemic peak at $3.71, achieved in 2019, with potential upside from capital allocation activities. The anticipated growth for this year is likely to be significantly above the trend line, we provided in our long term aspirational outlook last quarter. Flipping to slide 12, we retained significant financial capacity to accelerate long term growth, while also returning cash to our shareholders. We believe that we have significantly reduced the volatility of our financial results and enhance free cash flow potential. The record free cash flow we generated in 2020 combined with the prudent way we manage our balance sheet ahead of the crisis, positions us to deploy capital as economic conditions improve. Our efforts have already begun. So far this year, we've invested about $200 million on capital expenditures, M&A, and partnership investments, while buying back approximately $88 million of shares, including $64 million in the first quarter. We have a strong M&A pipeline and expect to continue programmatic share repurchases. However, given our strong balance sheets and free cash flow generation, it is highly unlikely we will approach the high end of our target leverage range within our current long term planning period, absent a transformational investment. In closing, we are optimistic about our outlook for 2021 and beyond. We have a strong industry leadership position and management team. well diversified business, loyal client base and the capital structure to fund future growth and optimize shareholder return. And with that, operator, we'll take questions.