Jim Groch
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Bob. Please turn to Slide 5. As Bob indicated, CBRE had very strong performance in 2016. Let me start with three highlights. First, we achieved double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2016 for the company overall and for each of our regional services businesses. Second, our 17.9% margin of adjusted EBITDA on fee revenue exceeded the 17% target we established at the beginning of the year. This is especially noteworthy given the inclusion in 2016 of full year of contractual fee revenue from our acquisition of Global Workplace Solutions. Third, in 2016, we achieved a 17.8% return on invested capital. Please turn to Slide 6 for a more detailed look at our full year results. In 2016, revenue rose 20% to $13.1 billion. Fee revenue increased 13% to $8.7 billion. Organic fee revenue growth was 5% in local currency, excluding contributions from all acquisitions. This is noteworthy in a year where sales and leasing volumes in the overall market declined. Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% to $1.6 billion or 13%, excluding the impact of currency movement and hedging. Adjusted EPS was up 12% to $2.30 a share or up 15%, excluding the impact of currency movement and hedging. Full year adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion excludes $78.5 million for the cost elimination program that ended in Q3 2016 and $125.7 million of integration costs related to the Global Workplace Solutions acquisition, including $52.2 million that occurred in Q4. The benefits of our cost-elimination program will be evident when we review our fourth quarter margins. Regarding integration costs, prior to year end, we separated most of the legacy back office support from the prior owner of the acquired Global Workplace Solutions business. We anticipate being completely separated from all such support over the next few months and ending integration-related adjustments to EBITDA from this acquisition by second quarter of 2017. To reiterate, the only material adjustment to EBITDA in Q4 was for the integration of our large acquisition and this charge will end in Q2. Please turn to Slide 7. We continue to take a prudent approach to both recruiting and M&A activity. For 2016, we added hundreds of producers globally net of departures, but our overall recruitment level was down from the past few years. We have remained disciplined in underwriting recruitment opportunities at a time when we view some competitors as offering uneconomic terms. Similarly, we invested in only four infill M&A deals in 2016. As we have said on prior calls, valuations in the market deviated from our underwriting standards over the past several quarters. We continue to have a robust M&A pipeline, but are willing to step aside when terms do not meet our standards. We continue to invest in technology and data analytics. As Bob noted, we made another acquisition in this space just last month. In addition, we invest – continue to invest in internal data and technology initiatives that will help our people deliver value for our clients. Our balance sheet remains highly flexible. We have no required debt repayments until 2019. We ended 2016 with more than $3.5 billion of available liquidity, including nearly $700 million of cash and $2.8 billion of undrawn capacity on our revolver credit facility. At year end, net debt was 1.2x adjusted EBITDA. Please turn to Slide 8 for a look at full year revenue growth by line of business. Occupier outsourcing revenue rose 55% in local currency to $6.1 billion, while fee revenue increased 62% in local currency to $2.3 billion. The growth rate was 14% for both revenue and fee revenue without contributions from the acquired Global Workplace Solutions business. Leasing revenue reached $2.7 billion, up 7% in local currency. Our capital markets business, property sales and mortgage services totaled $2.3 billion in revenue, reflecting 5% growth in local currency. Our business mix continued to shift towards more recurring revenue, with contractual fee revenue comprising approximately 42% of total fee revenue for the company, up from 37% in 2015. Now please turn to Slide 9 as we shift our focus from full year to Q4 financial results. All references for the remainder of this presentation are in local currency, unless stated otherwise and references to currency movement include the impact, if any from hedging. Fee revenue in Q4 increased 6% to $2.7 billion. Organic growth in fee revenue was 5%, comprising the vast majority of our growth for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter rose 10% to $568 million or 13% without the impact of all currency movements. This increase is notable coming on top of 26% growth in Q4 of 2015. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 21.4% on fee revenue improved 110 basis points from Q4 2015. Adjusted earnings per share in U.S. dollars increased 15% to $0.93 for the quarter on top of 19% growth in Q4 2015. In addition, currency movement, including hedges, had a negative impact of $15.8 million to adjusted EBITDA and $0.03 to adjusted earnings per share when comparing current quarter results with Q4 2015. Without this impact from currency movement, adjusted earnings per share would have increased 19% in the quarter. Please turn to Slide 10 for a review of our major global lines of business in Q4. As already noted earlier, all percentage increases are in local currency unless otherwise stated. Occupier outsourcing continued to produce strong growth. Fee revenue included – including from our acquisition of Global Workplace Solutions, which is now included in both the current and the prior quarter year, increased 10% globally. Global property sales revenue increased 8%. Asia Pacific sales revenue rose 35%, reflecting strength in Australia, Greater China and Singapore as well as in the especially large transaction in Japan. Sales revenue also rose solidly in EMEA, paced by robust growth in France as well as in Belgium and Germany. This more than offset a modest decline in the United Kingdom as investors continue to adjust to the post-Brexit environment. U.S. property sales revenue was largely unchanged compared with Q4 2015. We outperformed the market in the U.S. investment sales with 140 basis point increase in market share in Q4, according to Real Capital Analytics. The commercial mortgage services business continued to perform very well, with revenue rising 32%. This growth was driven by strong gains from mortgage servicing rights as well as increased loan originations with U.S. government sponsored enterprises and life insurance companies. Our loan servicing portfolio stood at $145 billion at year end, up $10 billion from 2015. Global leasing revenue increased 6%. Asia-Pac posted double-digit growth with revenue gains in nearly all countries, most notably, Greater China, Japan and Singapore. EMEA saw solid growth of 6%, led by Germany, Italy and Poland. U.S. leasing revenue rose 4%. Valuation revenue increased 6% for the fourth quarter, paced by EMEA. Both revenue and fee revenue from property management services were up 4%. Please turn to Slide 11 regarding Q4 results for our three regional services businesses. We should note that M&A had an immaterial effect on growth rates in each of the regional businesses in Q4. The Americas, our largest business segment, posted a fee revenue increase of 7%. Asia Pacific, our fastest-growing region in Q4, achieved fee revenue growth of 21%, with strong performance across most of the region. EMEA produced fee revenue growth of 9%. The United Kingdom performed well, with fee revenue up 7%, led by occupier outsourcing. This solid performance in the wake of the Brexit vote tested the strength and diversity of CBRE service offering in the UK. We achieved significant operating leverage in each of the three regional services businesses supported by strong organic growth and our cost elimination program, which ended in Q3. In U.S. dollars, adjusted EBITDA increased 83% in Asia Pacific, 28% in EMEA and 22% in the Americas. After removing the effect of all foreign currency movements on year-to-year comparisons, adjusted EBITDA increased 74% in Asia Pacific, 46% in EMEA and 22% in the Americas. Please turn to Slide 12 regarding our occupier outsourcing business, which is reported within the three regional service segments. Fee revenue for this business was up 14% in 2016, excluding the direct contributions from the acquired Global Workplace Solutions business. Q4 2016 was the first full quarter where both the acquired and the existing outsourcing businesses were included in both current and prior year results. We achieved combined fee revenue growth of 10% in local currency in Q4. We expect more modest growth in the first half of 2017, with higher growth in the second half, leading to approximately 10% growth for the full year. In Q4, we signed 47 new outsourcing contracts and 40 expansions. Our city gains in the healthcare sector continued as well as we signed nine total contracts with hospital systems like Baptist Memorial and Catholic Health Initiatives. Our global scale, first rate capabilities and collaborative culture positioned us better than any other company to capitalize over time on the very large opportunity in this business. Please turn to Slide 13 regarding our Global Investment Management segment. Adjusted EBITDA for this business totaled $15 million for Q4 2016, down from a particularly strong prior year Q4. Q4 2015 included approximately $30 million of carried interest revenue versus almost none in the current period. In addition, we saw a decrease in co-investment returns and management fees in the securities business, reflecting the decline in the market for listed securities in Q4 compared with an increase in Q4 of the prior year. Assets under management ended the year at $86.6 billion. In local currency, AUM for the year was up $2.1 billion, but was down $2.4 billion when measured in U.S. dollars. Approximately 60% of our AUM, excluding securities, is denominated in euros and British pound sterling. With these currencies down by approximately 25% since mid-year 2014, the strong dollar continues to negatively impact this segment. Our global investors business continues to attract significant capital from investors due to the strong performance of its investment programs. Equity commitments in Q4 rose to $2.6 billion, bringing total capital raise in 2016 to $8.3 billion, one of our strongest capital raises in recent years. Notably, our increased focus on open ended core and core plus investment programs, which we described at our Investment Day – Investor Day, has shown good results with CBRE funds in the top quartile for investment performance in the U.S. and EMEA. Please turn to Slide 14 regarding our Development Services segment. Development Services had a record year in 2016 and another strong quarter in Q4, though earnings declined as expected from a particularly strong Q4 2015. For Q4 2016, this business produced $48 million of EBITDA. Development projects in process totaled $6.6 billion, down $100 million from year end 2015. The pipeline totaled $4.2 billion, up $600 million from a year ago. Please turn to Slide 15. Before I turn the call back to Bob, I would like to highlight two key points regarding Q4. First, our regional services businesses performed very well, with 9% growth in fee revenue in local currency and 33% growth in adjusted EBITDA, excluding currency effects, including hedging. This growth is almost exclusively organic. Next, our leasing and capital markets businesses outperformed the market, with revenue growth in local currency of 6% and 13%, respectively. Now, please turn to Slide 16 for Bob’s closing remarks.