Earnings Labs

Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE)

Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Feb 6, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the CBOE Holdings Fourth Quarter 2014 Financial Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the conference over to Deb Koopman, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma’am.

Deborah Koopman

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter conference call. On the call today, Ed Tilly, our CEO, will discuss the quarter and our strategic initiatives for 2015; then Alan Dean, our Executive Vice President and CFO, will detail our fourth quarter 2014 financial results and provide guidance on certain financial metrics for 2015. Following their comments, we will open the call to Q&A. Also joining us for Q&A will be our President and COO, Ed Provost. In addition, I’d like to point out that this presentation will include the use of several slides. We will be showing the slides and providing commentary on each. A downloadable copy of the slide presentation is available on the Investor Relations portion of our website. As a preliminary note, you should be aware that this presentation contains forward-looking statements which represent our current judgment on what the future may hold. And while we believe these judgments are reasonable, these forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Please refer to our filings with the SEC for a full discussion of the factors that may affect our forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, after this conference call. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Ed Tilly.

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Thank you, Debbie. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Strong fourth quarter trading made 2014 a year for the record books at CBOE Holdings. Record trading at each of our exchanges, CBOE, C2, and CFE, combined for a total of 1.3 billion options and futures contracts traded an all-time high and an increase of 12% over the previous year’s total. The groundwork laid by our team to engage customers, develop products and broaden access to our marketplace positioned CBOE to increase CBOE Volatility Index, VIX futures trading by 26% and total options trading by 11%, outpacing U.S. options industry growth by several percentage points. We were particularly gratified to see record trading in our proprietary products, S&P 500 Index, SPX options and VIX futures and options. Increased trading across all product lines in 2014 drove new highs in key financial metrics, including revenue, earnings, and operating margin making 2014 our company’s fourth consecutive year of record financial results, a performance that allowed us to reward shareholders through increased quarterly dividends and share repurchases and to lay the foundation for ongoing growth in 2015 and beyond. CBOE continued to lead all 12 options exchanges with a total market share of 28.6% in December 2014, an increase of just over 1 percentage point from December 2013. I am pleased to say the momentum has carried into the new year. January average daily volume across all products traded at CBOE Holdings was 5.4 million contracts, an increase of 5% from December 2014. While we continued to see strong trading in VIX futures and SPX options, we saw a decline in VIX options trading, which we attribute to the unusual flattened VIX curve that we began to see in January. To give you a better sense of this, we thought we…

Alan Dean

Analyst

Thanks Ed. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us. This morning, I will walk you through our fourth quarter results and then provide guidance on certain financial metrics for 2015. CBOE Holdings had another strong quarter, benefiting from more favorable market conditions and solid execution from our team. As outlined in the press release we issued earlier this morning, operating revenue was $166.5 million in the fourth quarter, up 17% compared with last year’s fourth quarter. Adjusted operating income was $88.8 million, representing an adjusted operating margin of 53.4%, up 220 basis points versus the fourth quarter of 2013. Adjusted net income allocated to common stockholders was $53.6 million, an 18% increase compared with 2013’s fourth quarter, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 23% to $0.64. Before I continue, let me point out that our GAAP results reported for the fourth quarter of 2014 include certain unusual items that impact the comparison of our operating performance. These items are detailed in our non-GAAP information provided in the press release and in the appendix of our slide deck. Turning to the details of the quarter, as this slide shows, the growth in our operating revenue was primarily driven by higher transaction fees. Transaction fees increased $23.7 million, or 24% from last year’s fourth quarter, due to a 15% increase in trading volume and an 8% increase in the average revenue per contract or RPC. Trading volume increased across every product category in the fourth quarter compared against both the prior year period and the previous quarter. Our blended RPC, including options and futures, was $0.34 compared with $0.316 in the fourth quarter of 2013. This increase mainly resulted from a shift in the mix of trading volume towards our highest margin products index options and VIX futures. The…

Deborah Koopman

Analyst

Thanks, Alan. At this point, we would be happy to take questions. We ask that you please limit your questions to one per person to allow time to get to everybody and feel free to get back in the queue and if time permits we will take second question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Yes, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Rich Repetto with Sandler O’Neill.

Rich Repetto

Analyst

Good morning, Ed. Good morning, Alan.

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Good morning, Rich.

Alan Dean

Analyst

Hi, Rich.

Rich Repetto

Analyst

I guess, Ed, thanks for the comments and color on the VIX term structure upfront. And I guess that’s my question is if you look at volatility, the volatility levels now were at pretty high levels, at least for the VIX, but we are not seeing like, if you look at your index option, as well as the VIX futures, they are not at commensurate high level as what you saw in the – it’s more like 2Q or 3Q or a little bit above. And I know you pointed towards the VVIX before, and that’s still running at 100. So, I guess this new tool helps us to sort of understand it, but are you saying that we would actually need a decrease in short-term volatility to see pickup in these index options and VIX futures?

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Well, Rich, no. What we are saying is not necessarily a decrease in the front month, but rather this could be the new norm. If 19 is our new normal, I would anticipate them the back end of the curve slopping upward toward the mid 20s, 22, 23, 24, 25, that’s a pretty normal spread we can still remain in contango. So, what is unusual is just the flat shape? We don’t see that very often. I think you have to go back to 2008, 2009 to see this flat curve. Now, all of that said Rich, it’s about 3 weeks worth of data. So, we didn’t see this in December. We have just seen this in January. So, primarily just focusing on VIX options strategy, those are the users on the sideline. VIX futures while we saw some pretty terrific calendar spread trading pickup throughout the year, last year, there is very little attractiveness to trading that calendar when the difference between front month and October is less than a point. You really don’t trade in and out of that curve. So, what we have seen in VIX futures though to pickup the slack and why that’s still up month over a year is because the day trader is trading with much more frequency, because of the higher VVIX, but we have that calendar spread around the sideline in the futures. We have the term structure, the trade rolls up and down the volatility curve on the sideline in the options. That said, all the terrific backdrop for us in the flagship SPX which traded almost 1 million contracts a day in January, we have never seen anything like it before. So, the complex itself, trading the 500, hedging your exposure to the 500 is still very robust, we are pretty pleased with it overall. And I think a return to a normal shape of the curve brings back the VIX options trader and the calendar futures trader, while we are going to rely on the active day trader and the VIX futures in the meantime.

Rich Repetto

Analyst

That’s very helpful. I think that gives sort of the segment of the different traders. Thanks. And I hope you watched that little game this past Sunday night.

Ed Tilly

Analyst

We did indeed. Rooting for you.

Rich Repetto

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Michael Carrier of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Michael Carrier

Analyst

Thanks guys. Alan, maybe first a question for you, I think I understand what you were saying on the royalty fees, but I just wanted to make sure things weren’t changing, just the way that the calculation we will be looking at going forward will be on a contra basis, meaning the fees that you are paying into the market that’s not changing. And then just in kind of tandem with that, when you think about pricing just in general, whether it’s on the transaction side, the access side, market data, it seems like throughout the industry we are in a period where pricing is showing some signs of improvement, meaning the exchanges have more power. So, just wanted to get your take? I know you guys have done things in the past, but just wanted to get your take on how you see the dynamics in the current environment?

Alan Dean

Analyst

Yes, good morning Mike. Good question. Yes, to clarify the royalty fee issue, no, nothing new there. We are just taking out small amount of dollars that we showed as royalty fee expense and moving it up to transaction fees. And that item when we left it in royalty fees, sometimes messed up the correlation between royalty fees and the index and futures volume. And so just by moving it up, we think that will improve the correlation between that and nothing is new. And so the $0.14 in the first quarter, $0.15 for the rest of the year and that’s I think for the fourth quarter, we are at $15.2. So, you can see the impact of the dollars that are moving up to transaction fees. The impact on RPC, this is multi-list contra revenue that I am moving up to the revenue side. It will have a really small impact on RPC, a few tenths of a percent, a few tenths of a cent. So, that was the idea there. Now, on pricing, actually I have been saying this for a while and I am feeling better about it as time goes on. The way I look at pricing right now on the multi-list side, yes, there has been certainly stabilization in those line items. And that’s great. I think maybe we have all gotten it that dropping price may yield short-term gains in market share, but in a long run, competitors match and everybody is out revenues. So, on the multi-list side, it’s stable going forward. On the index options side, we have been able to acquire a few cents of RPC there over the past couple of years, but I would model stable pricing in that category going forward. And VIX futures, because of the size of the contract, it’s so large. The notional value that VIX future is so large, there is more room to move up there and you saw that. If you look at historical pricing there, I think you will see an increase in pricing in VIX futures. But we are very deliberate in what we do on pricing. These – the growth curves of SPX, of VIX options, VIX futures is so fantastic that what we don’t want to do is turn anybody off to these products because of fees. So, we are very careful about what we do there. I would much rather have an increase in revenue driven by volume rather than fees. So, that’s how I am viewing fees going forward.

Michael Carrier

Analyst

Okay, thanks a lot.

Alan Dean

Analyst

Sure, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS.

Alex Kramm

Analyst · UBS.

Good morning, everyone. I just want to ask about market participants and growth in that regard. When we talk to people, index traders and things like that, it sounds like the last 6 months have seen a little bit of a slowdown in I guess what those guys are seeing in terms of new people connecting and trading. So, just wondering if you are seeing the same things or if it’s more like market-driven in terms of maybe the lead time of somebody like looking at the product set and then getting live is it’s taking a little bit longer or maybe different market participants just taking longer or moving elsewhere, because other areas look a little bit more exciting right now, so maybe flesh it out a little bit? Thanks.

Ed Provost

Analyst · UBS.

Hi, Alex, it’s Ed Provost. So, as you know and we have discussed this, we have very, very experienced team both on the futures and the securities side engaging buy side clients, mostly institutional, some retail on a regular continuous basis both domestically and abroad. We evaluate the messages that are brought back on a regular and ongoing basis. We see as Ed mentioned, the little slowdown in the VIX options is very much being market conditions driven, no lack of enthusiasm, no lack of interest, still increased connectivity, especially on the futures side. So, we are – we continue to be very optimistic. We are looking at record attendance at our Risk Management Conference coming up in March, where we speak solely about the products that are proprietary to CBOE. So, we are – we couldn’t be more optimistic about not only the current user base, but those parties in particular pension space, who have not historically used our products, but who are adapting to using our products in the future.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · UBS.

Yes. I think also Alex this is an opportunity for us now with broadening the products that we are bringing globally. You couldn’t be more excited about a March launch and announcing that today for VIX options and SPX options. It really allows the team to get out there. And then of course MSCI to really offer to a growing customer base CBOE’s growing set of unique products only to CBOE. So, you may hear a more tempered approach but our sales guys couldn’t be more excited. And I think there is enthusiasm around both the ETH launch for options and MSCI in broadening our reach for global hedging.

Alex Kramm

Analyst · UBS.

Alright, very good. Thank you.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · UBS.

Thanks Alex.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Chris Allen with Evercore.

Chris Allen

Analyst · Evercore.

Good morning guys.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Evercore.

Good morning Chris.

Chris Allen

Analyst · Evercore.

I appreciate the color on then VIX term structure. And you referred that the last time you saw this happened was back in ’08, ’09, I am wondering, A, how long it lasted back then. B, what should we be looking at as indicators for potential change, is VIX open interest a good indicator for a change in the current environment right now that’s continuing to decline in January and February, will that start to pick-up and start to see it lengthening out, I mean a change in the term structure, any color there would be appreciated?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Evercore.

So, it doesn’t last long, just like when we see spikes when VIX in that normal upward slope contango, when we see spikes in backwardation where the front month is higher than the back months, that doesn’t last long either. Again, this is a very small data set of basically the last few weeks. What I would point you to similarly what we pointed you to in May is go to our CFE website. You get to see the term structure real time, the futures prices are up there today. They are up there every day in real time. And you can see basically 19% to 20.5%, 20.75% over the next 10 months, which is really, really flat. So, you will either see a new normal at 19% and upward slopping into the mid-20s or you will see the front month coming down. I can’t predict that. We use real prices of the S&P 500 options. And when those settle, you will see a change either to the front month, or you will see a new norm and the back month will tick up. I can’t predict time, I would say that a very unusual from a trader’s perspective to see moves in the S&P 500 of 3% or so in a given week, that’s really, really unusual. We have had – any given day, we can move 20 handles, that is historically, unsustainable. But again, I can’t predict the future. I use real prices like everyone else when I look out over that term structure. The website will tell you, will give you a pure good look into what those that are insuring the 500 are willing to pay for insurance.

Chris Allen

Analyst · Evercore.

Got it. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Christian Bolu with Credit Suisse.

Christian Bolu

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Good morning guys, thanks for taking my questions. On extended trading hours, clearly it’s been a big success in the futures world. As we think about SPX and mortgage securities world, is there any difference in the customer base or behavior that would mean extended trading hours are more or less successful relative to the experience with futures?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Yes. I think the difference is really the futures industry is we didn’t introduce extended trading hours in the futures industry. We picked up an industry who is used to trading around the clock. For example, Globex has been opened 24 and three quarter hours for quite some time. We love that, we follow that model and have been very successful in trading VIX futures in non-U.S. trading hours. Uniquely, now CBOE will launch on the security side, SPX options and VIX options. So there is a difference. There is a different user base. We are excited about it. Our most active traders are looking forward to the launch. We have got liquidity providers testing with us and ready to provide some really meaningful quotes. So it is different, it is unique. CBOE paving the way again for introducing and allowing access into the U.S. market in the non-U.S. trading days. So I would point out the biggest difference is the futures users are used to this and the securities guys this will be new and CBOE is bringing that to the marketplace.

Christian Bolu

Analyst · Credit Suisse.

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Kenneth Hill with Barclays.

Kenneth Hill

Analyst · Barclays.

Hi, good morning Ed, good morning Alan.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Barclays.

Good morning.

Alan Dean

Analyst · Barclays.

Good morning.

Kenneth Hill

Analyst · Barclays.

I wanted to talk a little bit about the new products. So I would assume getting a new product off the ground, if you are going to need some buying from not only market participants as well as guys like market makers and liquidity providers there. What do you guys see as impediment to partnering up with dealers and market makers to come in and back new products like the 10-year VIX. And what kind of things can you guys do on your end to help incentivize them to get in and make markets for those new products and get them off the ground. And I guess on a related note, are there certain products that are more difficult to get buy-in for versus others?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Barclays.

Yes. So, let me start, I am going to turn it over to Ed Provost, there certainly are ones that come more naturally to us and ones that present a bigger challenge. What we said on the launch of the 10-year is getting into the fixed income space is new to us. It’s new to our liquidity providers and it’s going to take a longer lead time. What’s more natural obviously is extending trading hours in products that are in our core, SPX options and VIX options and extended trading hours, different challenges, but once that we are much more comfortable with. I would point out that you mailed, we need to launch new products, first with liquidity. And as we go back and look at our successes, it’s because we have got anchored tenants posting liquidity from the opening bell to the closing bell in meaningful quality markets. And without that, new products are not setup to succeed. We think we do a very good job of that. But I will turn it over to Ed and he can touch on some of what we are hearing from his business development guys.

Ed Provost

Analyst · Barclays.

So, yes, just add to what Ed said, it really is a balance of the liquidity provision and getting order flow providers prepared for and to promote the use of the products. VXTYN, whole new product set for us, a much bigger challenge in getting continuous liquidity in that product, but we have gotten that going that we think pretty well. MSCI products pretty much are consistent with our current mainstream products, won’t be a big challenge. Extended trading hours in VIX and SPX options, we have three dedicated DPMs starting at 2 AM, we feel very, very good about that. So it has a lot to do with the product and the space that we are operating in. The closer it is to our historical product line, the better it is, the newer it is, the greater the challenge. And that’s true on the order flow side as well. The users of the VXTYN, a different user set for us. So, new people to meet, lots of more – lots of greater challenges in engaging that audience as opposed to again MSCI products which is basically the same user set that we are running into all the time at our Managing Directors Conference. So, different products present different challenges. As we look to diversify our product set, we will find ourselves engaging new users both on the liquidity provider side and the order flow side. But, we have recognized that and we are well equipped to handle both.

Kenneth Hill

Analyst · Barclays.

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Patrick O'Shaughnessy of Raymond James.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst

Hey, good morning guys.

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Good morning Pat.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst

So, a question on the market data fees line. You guys are seeing some really nice growth in that area, kind of in the first half of 2014 and I think you attributed a lot of it to growth in your futures exchange market data, is that something do you think there is still some more upside left, because it seems like you obviously have a very viable property and there is probably more ways that you can monetize that?

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Yes. That’s a great question Patrick. In 2014, we saw three things happen in market data fees. First of all, we had an increase in market share and that drove our operating revenue. So, operating revenue is driven by each exchange’s share of industry options trade. So, that was a big driver in 2014. But we also saw some pricing changes affect that line item and that drove another although other smaller part of the increase. But the other two items that were drivers were CFE, our futures exchange market data fees, which we continue to see growth in and our own streaming markets that we sell. So, the largest part was operating revenue, but we are seeing growth on CFE and our streaming market side as well.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Ed Tilly

Analyst

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Okay. Thank you. And the next question comes from Niamh Alexander with KBW.

Niamh Alexander

Analyst · KBW.

Hi. Thanks. It’s Niamh Alexander. So and just on the MSCI and it’s quite a well known index. So, it could be a pretty exciting opportunity. Can you just help me think about how you are thinking about framing the product? Is it going to be primarily an electronic index? Is there an opportunity to kind of create something like the S&P with the pits? There already are ETFs or options on ETFs in place right now for MSCI products, but just help me think about how you are looking to? And right now I guess you haven’t ruled it out, but should we be thinking about this as being similar to your index options in terms of the pricing and whatnot?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · KBW.

So, I will let Alan talk to you about pricing, but I think you have nailed it. So, think of the success that we have had when we have looked at SPY. And as the SPDR ETF trader grows the size of the trades the complicated, the sophistication of the strategy, we have talked to those traders to move into the SPX. So, think of that in the exact same way. The MSCI contracts will be much larger notional value, cash settled European exercise. So, think pro, once you have begun and had success trading that ETF, we want to move those traders into the much more professional sized trade that will be offering options on for MSCI. So, exact same way. So, look to SPDR, look to SPX, and that’s what we hope to accomplish with the large institutional size contract that we are going to be introducing. Alan, on pricing?

Alan Dean

Analyst · KBW.

Yes, I am looking pricing on these products similar to what we are experiencing in our index option side right now. So premium pricing, their license products and we will extract more value from those than we would on our multi-list side.

Niamh Alexander

Analyst · KBW.

Okay. And it’s first quarter rollout, right?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · KBW.

Yes.

Alan Dean

Analyst · KBW.

Yes.

Niamh Alexander

Analyst · KBW.

Okay, fair enough. Good luck with it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Chris Harris with Wells Fargo.

Chris Harris

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Thanks. Hi, guys. A quick question on the slide you guys have there on the passive assets, I thought it was kind of pretty interesting, but wondering if you could help us out a little bit more maybe trying to frame the opportunity there. Do you guys know how much derivatives a typical passive fund actually utilizes? And I ask that if you look at the expectations for 2020, $23 trillion of assets, maybe if it’s 5% that use derivatives that might help us frame up the market share a little bit better?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

I can’t pinpoint exactly by strategy or by fund. I think what TAB points out that we are so excited about is the trend to what is basically the core for CBOE is really predicting that the hedging ability on the macro side and using these funds and the increase in the assets in these funds should line up well for CBOE’s complete suite, whether it’s the 500, whether it’s growth stocks in the Russell, whether now with MSCI with the trillions benchmark to MSCI, we think those benchmarks and those assets under management is going to grow. And we then see the continuation and the engagement of whether it’s on volatility related to those funds or the straight out hedging that we see today just growing over time. Ed?

Ed Provost

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yes. So, I will add to that, Chris. Take a look at the white paper. It really is an impressive study of the fantastic growth of funds utilizing option strategies and the fact that people can increase returns. And in some cases, it actually reduced risk at the same time. So, I think that gives an addition to the TAB study a great perspective on the – on what I will call another form of the institutional use of options. We speak oftentimes about the pension space, but the fund space has grown fabulously as that white paper pointed out.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Yes. And then one more thought, I mean that’s the U.S. approach and I think the trend is just beginning globally and picking up exposure for us with MSCI really allows our guys to go out and we have gotten out two risk management conferences outside of the U.S. That’s just beginning for us. So, in our business development guys and our teachers go out, the suite now in attracting not just U.S. exposure and hedging that in funds, but rather now being able to use MSCI and that suite of products, it really opens a lot more doors for us.

Chris Harris

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Hi. Good morning folks.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Good morning.

Alan Dean

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Good morning.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Good morning. Just a question on the options, both multi-list and index options market share, obviously there has been some shift around with MX losing some share to Batz. Just wondered if you would comment on, first of all, whether that will have any impact on you? And then just looking at February, I know it’s only a couple of days in, but it looks like you have some lighter share in the index side and then little bit on the equity side. So, if you can maybe just – and maybe that’s just too early, but if you could just comment on those trends? And then just the timing of the MSCI launch and when you expect that to be material through revenue?

Ed Provost

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

So, Brian, Ed Provost. MSCI launched I think end of first quarter and revenue impact obviously beginning there and going forward. As to the market share situation, been pretty stable, multiply-listed options very much in the 20%, 21% leading the group. We like the business. It’s not on a revenue per contract basis nearly as lucrative as our proprietary products, but we like the business. We compete aggressively and we feel as though we are optimizing revenue in that space. Our overall market share was obviously going to ebb and flow more based upon the activity levels than our proprietary products, but the market share wise, we like our position, it’s strong. And in my perspective, as it’s been pretty stable for a good number of months, I don’t read anything quite frankly into the early February numbers, but we feel – so this will be a strong market share year for us.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Okay, great. And then just RPC trends would be moving if we have softer volumes in 1Q that would be beneficial for RPC from a volume threshold basis on the options?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Well, you have to think about, Brian, mix. And so if you saw softer volumes and equity options and ETF options, but SPX and VIX and VIX futures remains strong than our overall RPC is going to jump. And conversely, if you saw an incredibly strong equity in the ETF category, it would negatively impact our overall RPC. I talked about RPC by category a few questions ago and so that’s how we are looking at our PC today.

Brian Bedell

Analyst · Deutsche Bank.

Yes, okay, great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

Ken Worthington

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Hi, good morning.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Good morning.

Ken Worthington

Analyst · JPMorgan.

If I calculated correctly, operating margins about 53.5% or so, I think that’s the highest we have seen. And you have a number of initiatives that continue to play out extended trading hours, product extension and so on. But as we think about the groundwork for growth, say over the next 5 years, just looking at the increase in margin, so call it high-quality problem. Are you investing enough or maybe is pricing really optimized to maximize revenue and revenue growth or maybe the answer here is the right margin level for CBOE is not really 50%, but it’s really closer to 60%. So, as we think about this improvement in margins, what’s kind of the right way to frame how we should think about this going forward?

Ed Tilly

Analyst · JPMorgan.

We don’t manage the operating margin although, it’s a byproduct and it’s a formula. And I am going to be stating some things that I am sure are obvious to you, but it starts on the revenue side, coming up with proprietary products that we can charge premium pricing on maximizing the growth rate of our current product suite. I think we are doing that for education and business development efforts, other business development efforts there and that driving revenue, looking at fees and fees is much an art as it is a science. We have to be careful about what we do in fees and all of our product categories. And we think we are – but we want to maximize that revenue. In VIX futures, it’s possible to increase those fees, but I don’t want to do something that would stop the next big futures firm from trading VIX futures. I just wouldn’t want to do that. So, that’s part of the equation. The other part is the expense side and the leverage that margin doesn’t work unless we do the right job on the expense side. And I think we have a pretty good history of controlling expenses. I think our guidance for next year is – it should be no surprise to anyone, it’s I have always said 3% to 5% year-over-year on core operating expenses, that’s how it’s looking for next year again. And if we see volume downturns, we respond. And for instance in 2014, our initial guidance was in the mid 190s and we saw a volume downturn in the late spring and into the summer. We have responded by pretty dramatically cutting cost and lowering our guidance for the year. So, that’s the formula. I don’t guide to an operating or I don’t have a target for an operating margin number. All the pieces underneath have to be watched and worked on. And if we do the job there, then the operating margin works.

Ken Worthington

Analyst · JPMorgan.

Great. Fair enough. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Akhil Bhatia with Rosenblatt Securities.

Akhil Bhatia

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Good morning. My questions have been asked and answered. Thank you.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Thanks, Akhil.

Alan Dean

Analyst · Rosenblatt Securities.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And the next question comes from Neil Stratton with Citi.

Neil Stratton

Analyst · Citi.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I am sorry to do this, but I just want to come back to the January dynamics one more time. And most of the comments about the term structure were, I think, focused on the options. So, I just want to ask a question about the VIX futures. And the open interest does seem at sort of lower levels versus prior periods. I just want to see what are some of the dynamics behind it? And is there any impact specifically from the ETP market? Thanks.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Citi.

So, yes, back to the same answer. So, VIX options are priced off of VIX futures. So, you are right to point out the futures, that’s basically that flat curve. What we used, if you look at the history and the growth of VIX futures, we began with a hedging vehicle for our market makers trading VIX options. You are right you point out the ETP growth driven by major institutions offering their customers sponsored ETPs that were designed to replicate exposure to various portions of the volatility curve. That growth was terrific and it really moved us to the next level. We picked up calendar spread traders and day traders as the daily volume got to a critical mass we are able to attract them. So what continues and what’s fallen away in a flat curve? What’s fallen away a bit is the calendar spread trader. As I said, there is roughly a point maybe between front month and October, so not really attractive trading in and out of calendars at this point, but what has really served us well is being able to attract that day trader with the volatility of volatility or VVIX up about 100. The day trader has more than compensated for the lack of interest from a calendar spread trader and we are up obviously this year about 220,000 to 225,000 contracts a day on the futures side. So, we think both the ETP, the calendar spread trader come back as the term structure changes and we think the VIX options trader comes back as well. I don’t know if that answered your question, but that’s the difference between the futures, why we still see the futures volume growing is because we have this day trader. It is very, very active in a 100 VVIX environment.

Neil Stratton

Analyst · Citi.

Sure. Thanks very much.

Ed Tilly

Analyst · Citi.

Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have a follow-up question from Alex Kramm with UBS.

Alex Kramm

Analyst

Hello again. Just one quick one on the extended trading hours, you might have mentioned this, but is the pricing expectation the same one as well for index options, given that you might have some more traditional users versus market makers, HFTs things like that or is it comparable?

Ed Tilly

Analyst

I think the same.

Alex Kramm

Analyst

Easy enough. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And as there no more questions at the present time, I would like to turn the call back over to management for any closing comments.

Deborah Koopman

Analyst

Thank you. I want to thank everybody for their interest in CBOE and I am available all day if you have any follow-up questions. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.