Heng Chen
Analyst · Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Yes. Matthew, as I might have mentioned in the past, we use a blended rate for – until the fourth quarter, we were at 30%, 40%, 30% Moody’s rating, where the 30% is the S1, the Moody’s S1, which is the most favorable forecast. The base is their base. And Moody’s, in their December base forecast shows no recession in the next eight quarters. And then the S3, the Moody’s S3 has a decline. Well, that has – that’s basically the modest recession forecast. So, that has three quarters of negative GDP. Maximum decline is 3.6% in Q2 this year and unemployment goes up to 7.8% in Q1 2024 and declined to 7.3% in Q4 2024. So, what we did is we were – since we adopted CECL, we were at this 30%, 40%, 40% – sorry, 30%, 40%, 30%. So, this quarter, we changed that to where the moderate recession is now, 55% of our CECL calculation. And the base is 35%, and the optimistic is 10%. So, we think for 2023, we are expecting 3% to 5% loan growth, primarily single-family residential, which requires very little reserving, about 30 basis points for us. That our provision for 2023 would be basically net charge-offs, plus a modest amount for loan growth.