Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Casey's General Stores Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Business Development. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss the results from our fourth quarter and fiscal year ended April 30, 2026. I am Brian Johnson, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Business Development. With me today are Darren Rebelez, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Bramlage, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'll remind you that certain statements made by us during this investor call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements include any statements relating to the potential impact of the Fikes transaction, expectations for future periods, possible or assumed future results of operations, financial conditions, liquidity and related sources or needs, the company's supply chain, business and integration strategies, plans and synergies, growth opportunities and performance at our stores. There are a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by those forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the integration of the recent acquisitions, our ability to execute on our strategic plan or to realize benefits from the strategic plan, the impact and duration of conflicts in oil-producing regions and related governmental actions, as well as other risks, uncertainties and factors, which are described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as filed with the SEC and available on our website. Any forward-looking statements made during this call reflect our current views as of today with respect to future events, and Casey's disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures referenced in this call as well as a detailed breakdown of the operating expense increase for the fourth quarter can be found on our website at www.caseys.com under the Investor Relations link. With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to Darren to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal year results. Darren?

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before we dive into our strong results for the year, I would like to take a moment to highlight some of the great work Casey's is doing in the communities we serve. Our purpose here is to make life better for our guests and communities every day. It's not just something we say. It's truly something our team members live out every day. This fiscal year, with the support of our guests, team members and partners, Casey's contributed more than $8 million toward our strategic giving priorities of education, hunger relief and support for community servants, including first responders, military veterans and their families. Through our Cash for Classrooms program, schools and educational organizations across our footprint received 100 grants totaling $1.3 million. In support of hunger relief, more than 10 million meals were provided to local food banks through our Feeding America campaign and through our work with military nonprofit partners, we helped support more than 2,000 veterans and their families. This impact was made possible because of the dedication of our 50,000 team members, the generosity of our guests and the support of our partners. All of us here at Casey's are proud of how we keep showing up for our communities, and I want to thank everyone who played a role this past year. Now let's discuss the results for this past fiscal year. We had an outstanding fiscal '26 that achieved the highest ever diluted earnings per share, finishing at $19.16 and net income of $714 million, both representing a 31% increase over the prior year. The company also generated nearly $1.5 billion in EBITDA, its highest ever, an increase of 23% from the prior year. Inside the store, the growth was impressive. Total inside sales grew 10.2% during the year, while inside same-store sales were up 4.2% or 7% on a 2-year stack basis. Total prepared food and dispensed beverage sales grew 10.2% and same-store sales were up 5.2% or 8.8% on a 2-year stack basis. Total grocery and general merchandise sales were up 10.1% and same-store sales grew 3.9% or 6.2% on a 2-year stack basis. Whole pizzas and nonalcoholic beverages helped drive the strong results during the year. Inside margin expanded 70 basis points year-over-year to 42.2% as our merchants have done a tremendous job working with our vendor partners to get the right products on the shelves while maintaining a strong value proposition for our guests. This remarkable performance inside the store is a testament to our team. Over the course of the fiscal year, we launched successful LTOs, expanded our specialty pizza menu, introduced a new frozen carbonated beverage platform and finished our wing test and started scaling. We also partnered with Monster on a Red, White and Blue Razz flavor that was sold almost exclusively at Casey's from late January to early May. This product, celebrating America's 250th anniversary, resonated extremely well with guests and was a top seller in the energy category throughout the quarter. It also helped raise hundreds of thousands of dollars for Hope For The Warriors and the Children of Fallen Patriots Foundations, 2 causes that we are passionate about here at Casey's. At the pump, fuel gross profit was up 21%, with total fuel gallons sold up 10% and fuel margin averaging $0.426 per gallon over the course of the year. The capabilities our fuel team has developed over the past several years, helped us excel during a time of uncertainty and volatility. Our operations team continues to run the stores efficiently. For the year, same-store operating expenses, excluding credit card fees, were up only 3.7% for the year, impacted favorably by a reduction of same-store labor hours of 0.2%. At the same time, guest satisfaction and team member engagement were at or near all-time highs as we continue to view operational excellence and store simplification efforts through the lens of our team members and guests. Our fiscal '26 results illustrate the durability and strength of Casey's advantaged business model, and we're confident in our ability to deliver results in a variety of economic climates. I'd now like to turn the call over to Steve to discuss the fourth quarter and our outlook for fiscal '26 (sic) [ '27 ]. Steve?

Thank you, Darren, and good morning. Prior to going over the financials, I'd also like to thank the team for their hard work and their dedication throughout the year. The incredible financial results for the quarter and the full year are a function of the entire organization working together and executing at a very high level. The results that we are delivering are not easy to achieve. Now on to the great financial figures for the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share was $4.37. That is a 66% increase from the prior year. Total inside sales rose 7.4% from the prior year to over $1.5 billion with an average margin of 42.4%, which resulted in total inside gross profit dollars up $61 million or 10.5% from the prior year. Total prepared food and dispensed beverage sales rose by $36 million to $428 million. That's an increase of 9.2% and total grocery and general merchandise sales increased by $68 million to $1.09 billion, an increase of 6.7%. Same-store prepared food and dispensed beverage sales were up 6.6% for the quarter. The average margin for the quarter was 59.5%. That's up 170 basis points from a year ago. Whole pizzas and appetizers and sides performed well in the quarter. Improved waste was the primary driver of margin improvement and a lower LIFO charge also favorably impacted margins. Cheese costs were down $0.06 per pound from the prior year to $2 even, which had an approximate 15 basis point benefit to margin. Same-store grocery and general merchandise sales were up 5.1%, and the average margin was 35.7%. That's an increase of 90 basis points from the same period last year. Sales were particularly strong in nonalcoholic beverages, specifically energy drinks. Margin expansion was primarily driven by cost of goods management, while product mix, notably nicotine and nicotine alternatives also had a favorable impact. During the fourth quarter, same-store fuel gallons sold were up 1.5% with a fuel margin of $0.469 per gallon. That is up approximately $0.093 per gallon compared to the prior year. Retail fuel sales were up $446 million in the fourth quarter, due primarily to a 14.1% increase in the average retail price from $2.98 to $3.40, along with a 3.6% increase in the total gallons sold to $848 million, which also contributed. We believe the flywheel of our unparalleled inside offering paired with competitive fuel prices is helping our comps, both at the pump and inside the store. Total operating expenses were up 10.1% or $67 million in the fourth quarter. Approximately 2% of the total OpEx increase is due to operating 40 more stores than in the prior year. Same-store employee expense accounted for approximately 1.5% of the increase due primarily to increases in labor rates as same-store labor hours were roughly flat. Same-store credit card fees contributed approximately 1% of the increase due to the higher retail prices of fuel. Higher performance-based variable incentive compensation and discretionary charitable contributions contributed to approximately 4% of the increase. Net interest expense in the quarter was $21.7 million. That's down $6 million from the prior year. Depreciation in the quarter was $115.5 million, and that's up $8.1 million versus prior year, primarily due to operating more stores. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 23.7% compared to 23% in prior year, and that's due to an increase in unfavorable permanent differences. Net income was up versus the prior year to $162.7 million. That is an increase of 65.5%. EBITDA for the quarter was $350.3 million, an increase of 33.2%. Our balance sheet remains in excellent condition, and we have ample financial flexibility. On April 30, we had total available liquidity of $1.4 billion. Also, our debt-to-EBITDA ratio as calculated under the terms of our credit facilities was 1.5x. For the quarter, net cash generated by operating activities of $398 million, less purchases of PP&E of $191 million resulted in the company generating $207 million in free cash flow. This brought our total free cash flow generation for the fiscal year to $722 million. This is inclusive of an approximate $100 million cash tax benefit related to capital spending over the course of the fiscal year from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Return on invested capital for the fiscal year finished at 12.7%. That's up 120 basis points from the prior year, and this represents the highest return on invested capital achieved since a tax-aided 2018. At the June meeting, the Board of Directors voted to increase the dividend to $0.65 per share. That is a 14% increase, marking the 27th consecutive year that the dividend has been increased. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately $63 million of shares, and the Board also expanded the existing share repurchase program up to a total amount of $1 billion. We anticipate approximately $200 million in share repurchases in fiscal '27. And furthermore, we're providing an outlook as follows for fiscal '27. The company expects inside same-store sales to increase 2% to 5% with an inside margin above 42%. The company expects same-store fuel gallons sold to be between negative 1% to positive 1%. Total operating expenses are expected to increase approximately 5% to 7%. And the company expects EBITDA to increase between 8% to 10%, which would imply a 35% increase on a 2-year stack basis at the midpoint of the range. We expect to open at least 120 stores in fiscal 2027 through an even mix of M&A and new store construction. Net interest expense is expected to be approximately $95 million. D&A is expected to be approximately $490 million and the purchase of PP&E is expected to be approximately $800 million. Please note, this is inclusive of the cost of converting the majority of the CEFCO stores to Casey's. The tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% to 26% for the year. Now consistent with our prior practice, we are not guiding to a fuel margin CPG nor are we providing earnings per share. However, for modeling purposes only, the FY '27 EBITDA outlook is based on a mid-$0.40s per gallon fuel margin, combined with the other points of guidance. Our May experience was as follows: inside same-store sales, same-store gallons sold and fuel CPG margin are all consistent with achieving the annual guidance. Current cheese costs are modestly favorable versus the prior year, and we expect first quarter operating expense to be up high-single digits, partially attributable to higher credit card fees due to the higher retail prices of fuel. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Darren.

Thanks, Steve. I would like to again express my gratitude and congratulate the entire Casey's team for delivering another record year. Their hard work and dedication executing our 3-year strategic plan was impressive and it showed up in our exceptional financial results. In June of 2023, we laid out a plan that had 3 pillars: accelerate the food business, grow the number of units and enhance operational efficiency. We've now completed that plan, and I'm extremely proud of the growth of the organization as well as meeting and exceeding our financial goals. Over the course of the plan, we added Thin Crust Pizza, several pizza LTOs, including 3 regional offerings and an expanded specialty pizza menu. In addition to pizza, we revamped our hot sandwich lineup, created a new fryer platform with sauced wings and crispy fries and launched 2 new beverage platforms with Darn Good Coffee and our frozen carbonated product, FROSTBITE. For this summer, we recently brought back a familiar favorite, Bacon Cheeseburger Pizza and made it even better by pairing it with Casey's Fries. And our sauced wings were sold at nearly 850 stores by the end of the fourth quarter. Despite lapping our largest store growth year in company history in fiscal 2025, we opened 80 stores with 40 acquisitions and 40 new builds in fiscal 2026. We were able to do this while converting 50 CEFCO stores to Casey's, bringing our synergies to those sites. This brought our 3-year total to over 500 new units, which well exceeded our original 350-unit goal. While adding and remodeling a substantial number of stores, we continued our commitment to operating the business more efficiently. Through continuous improvement, we have done a great job identifying opportunity areas to make the stores more efficient while improving overall guest satisfaction with strong team member engagement. Over the course of the past 3 years, we reduced same-store labor hours by approximately 5%, while also improving turnover by more than 70 percentage points. As we closed out our 3-year strategic plan, I want to reiterate how proud I am of the work we've accomplished and grateful for the amazing team we have in place. On behalf of the Casey's team, we're all excited to share with you our plan for the next 3 years on June 24 in New York City. We love the hand we're holding, and we look forward to continuing the momentum. With that, we will now take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.

Congrats on capping off an impressive 3-year plan, Darren and team. My first question, Darren, is on the fuel side of the business and more of a high-level question. Just has -- in your view, is the historical relationship we're used to between higher RBOB prices and higher oil prices and fuel margin compression just broken down more over the last, call it, a few years. And I guess I'm just asking this in the context that in the quarter, RBOB went up over $1.50, and you guys still reported the highest record CPG margin in Casey's history. And even when you look back versus that time of Russia-Ukraine, it still was materially better off outsized gains. So just any thoughts there on have the dynamics in the industry and the cost pressures just changed a relationship that maybe us on Wall Street were kind of used to being a little bit more firm with higher oil versus compression in CPG?

Yes, Bobby, it's a good question. I don't know that it's fundamentally changed for the industry. I do think it did play out a little bit differently this quarter than maybe we've experienced historically. And what I mean by that is there's a lot of volatility in that path from where we started when the conflict started up to today. And so it wasn't a smooth increase going up like we've experienced before. There's a lot of choppiness. And I think, generally speaking, as a retailer, we don't like to change those prices as frequently as maybe the dynamics on the ground or the wholesale cost was changing. And so when you hold those prices somewhat flat and then it drops for a little bit, you make some -- your margin widens out for a moment in time and then it spikes back up and it gets compressed. So I think it was just a little bit more volatile on the way up relative to the experience we had in the past, and that enabled us to capture a bit more margin than we might have otherwise done.

Our next question comes from the line of Krisztina Katai with Deutsche Bank.

Congrats on a really strong finish to the year. I wanted to ask you guys on the inside margin progression, right? When we look at Prepared Food margin, it was, I think, the best margin in 5 years that you have seen. Also on the grocery side, we continue to see really strong performance. So I wanted to get your views on how do you view the durability of that? Like how much of what you were seeing in the fourth quarter is repeatable? And I know on the Prepared Food side, you said reduced waste was the biggest driver. So can you just speak to how much opportunity there still from an expansion perspective? And then just on the Grocery side, like how are you guys viewing volume versus price? If you could touch on those dynamics?

Yes. This is Steve. I'll maybe take a shot at that. I think broadly on margins, there are clearly some structural tailwinds that are helping us that we would expect to continue certainly on the grocery side of the business. If I start there, right, we've mentioned now for more than several quarters, the mix shift that is benefiting us in the grocery categories. Nicotine is probably the single biggest contributor to that. So as combustible cigarettes generally continue to decline as a portion of that mix replaced by nicotine alternatives, that is a very accretive margin switch for us and for, frankly, any retailer. Our position of having leaned in early and disproportionately with some of the changes we made in our back bar planograms and creating more space for nicotine alternatives and shrinking space for cigarettes for the first time really ever, has given us, I think, a structural advantage in the marketing of those products. And so I do think that is going to continue to accrete for us generally. To a lesser extent, but still real, the shift within the nonalcoholic beverage category. So energy drinks have been the star performer for us for a while in that part of the store. And those are a higher margin category than other things in that nonalcoholic category. And so as they continue to outperform, that will also naturally accrete up. Finally, within the center store and grocery, our investment in our liquor assortment and the footprint and the competitive advantage we have with, I think, over 1,500 liquor licenses allow us to have a much broader assortment in that category. And within the alcohol category writ large, liquor is going to be margin accretive for us certainly relative to beer. So we feel good about structural tailwind on the Grocery side of the business. And the Prepared Food side of the business is more commodity oriented, right? So we're a little bit more subject to what's happening in the market. And so certainly, the fall in cheese costs was a modest benefit for us this year that can give and take away equally. The waste progress we've made has very much been self-help. I think we feel we have more opportunity there. But Prepared Food is going to be more sensitive to commodity cycles. And certainly, as we continue to lean into new products in there and mix that category a little differently as wings grow and pizza velocity accelerates, certainly, pizza velocity will be accretive to that category also.

Our next question comes from the line of Edward Kelly with Wells Fargo.

Let me add my congrats to a great quarter. I wanted to ask you about momentum in the business and the cadence and what you're seeing from the consumer. Obviously, gallons and inside sales were strong despite higher gas prices. But can you talk about the cadence there, what you saw as you got into April, maybe more color around May? I'm just kind of curious if consumer behavior has really started to change at all related to this? And then more specifically, you gave a little bit of color around May. I'm just kind of curious if you could maybe expand upon how you were thinking about the guidance for the year in terms of the inside sales guide and the range, which I know is more typical for you, but I'm just curious as to sort of what the puts and takes were around that range.

Yes. I'll go ahead and talk a little bit about consumer. I'll let Steve talk about guidance. With respect to the consumer, I would say, overall, I think consumers are hanging in there. They're probably being a little more discerning about where they shop and how they spend their money. But we're seeing growth across all of the income cohorts. And the way we look at that is below $50,000 a year in income is low income, $50,000 to $100,000 a year is mid and above $100,000 is higher income. And I'd say that all 3, we're seeing growth, a little bit less so in the lower income. The other 2 cohorts, which is 3/4 of our guest base are spending comparably to what they've been spending on. In terms of specific behaviors, really, we're not seeing a lot of change on the inside of the store. We are seeing some change in fuel, but it's very minor. And it's all the things that we always talk about. If fuel prices get high, we start to see premium sales dip a little bit. We see sales of ethanol-blended fuel go up because it's a little cheaper. We see gallons per transaction drop a little bit. We see fuel transactions themselves go up because people are coming more frequently. So all of those dynamics are happening right now, but in low-single-digit percentages. So this is kind of very nuanced behaviors. The one thing that is a little bit new that we've seen is the gallons redeemed through our Casey's Rewards program were up 23% in the quarter. So people are clearly seeing value in our rewards program and leveraging those points to take some cents off a gallon for fuel. And that's making that fuel value proposition even stronger for Casey's and our guests. So Steve, I'll let you talk about the guidance.

I think that when we put the guidance out there, we're trying to provide a range, at least as it relates to the inside and outside volumes where we feel we have really good prospects to land in the middle of that range for the course of the year. And so within May specifically, what we saw in May makes us feel very good about our ability to land in the middle of that annual range. So I think it's very consistent. And CPG, we provide the modeling guide to CPG just to sanity check everybody on what it takes to get within that range. And clearly, the margins broadly in the industry are strong at the moment. And so we feel good about our ability to achieve kind of that modeled number that's required to give the EBITDA range. The one thing I would point out, if you just think of sequencing, right, the strength of the fourth quarter CPG number is great right now. It's obviously a difficult comp when we get to the fourth quarter of FY '27. And so we are taking that into account as we kind of think of sequencing. So we're strong CPGs as we sit here today, not necessarily assuming we will have equally strong year-over-year CPGs in the fourth quarter just because of the way the conflict has impacted things.

Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Aiken-Phillips with Melius Research.

Congrats on the strong quarter and the strong results overall. I wanted to ask about wings. Just as you rolled it out more broadly, are you seeing that same incrementality across those markets as you did in the early test stores? And does it vary in any way by geography, store format, daypart, et cetera?

Yes, Jacob, broadly speaking, the wings have performed very well for us so far. Again, it's very early stages. We were rolling out a lot of stores in the fourth quarter. So hard to pin down a lot of results to the overall P&L just from that one area. From a geographic standpoint, these are all being supplied out of our Ankeny distribution center. So within that geographic range is where all the wing stores are. So it's pretty comparable geography. So not -- there's always a little bit of nuance between DMAs, but for the most part, fairly consistent. What we're really happy about was the goal was to try to create an incremental occasion per week, so to speak, and where you could get pizza and wings if you wanted to, but you could also -- the wings were good enough that they could stand alone as a separate order. And we are seeing some of that. We're definitely seeing nice attachment with pizza, but we're also seeing guests order on their own. And what happens is when a guest orders wings on their own, they have increased their prepared food order frequency by 30%. So that's a really good fact pattern for us. We really like to see that trend, and we'll continue to try to reinforce that and grow that. But we're seeing the incrementality there. Our pizza volume, whole pizza volume, where we're selling wings is still up high-single digits. So it is certainly not cannibalized at all, and it is adding a different occasion for our guests.

Our next question comes from the line of Pooran Sharma with Stephens Inc.

Congrats on posting extremely robust results here. I just wanted to maybe understand how you guys were thinking about approaching that $5 level in retail gas prices. I think on the last call, you mentioned that there were some specific actions that you may take if you get to that level. It seems like we're ticking closer to that level than we were on the last call. So maybe just wanted to get a broader update on just how you're feeling there. And then if you could also provide an update on how -- on your -- hedging your cheese cost.

Yes, Pooran, on -- with respect to the retail price of fuel, we have historically started to see a little bit of demand destruction as you get closer to that $5 a gallon range. We're sitting around the $4.20-ish average retail price right now. So we still have a ways to go. And when we look back to the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war, we're -- if you take it on an inflation-adjusted basis, we're about $1 per gallon lower today as we sit here today than we were at the peak during that conflict. So I think we still have quite a ways to go before we start to get to where we might see some demand destruction. And again, when we start to see that, you see some of those consumer behaviors. I'm not sure that there's much that we would do on our side to change the play we're running. We tend to price at the lower end of the competitive set as it is. And so we would certainly strive to maintain that posture in the marketplace. And we think, ultimately, in a higher price environment, that accrues to our benefit as we get more people coming to our stores versus somewhere else. But that's about all we would plan to do on the fuel side.

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

On store growth, can you speak to the decision to accelerate growth and I guess, how this speaks to the acquisition opportunities that are out there and your opportunities to continue to consolidate stores?

Yes, Chuck, I'll talk about the store growth for this year, and I'll let Steve talk about M&A opportunities. This -- I guess I wouldn't necessarily characterize our target for this year is so much an acceleration over a course of time as it is an acceleration just versus prior year. And typically, our growth algorithm will call for about 4% new units every year, and that's what 120 new units gets us is right around that 4% range. It is an acceleration from last year. But last year, remember, we had just acquired the CEFCO chain, and so we are integrating that business. And so we pulled back a little bit on new store growth to give our team a chance to absorb the CEFCO acquisition and start working on the remodel. So this is really more a timing and sequencing thing. So I would say the guidance for store growth for this year is much more getting back on track from a historic standpoint and really more consistent with our growth algorithm.

And as it relates to just forward visibility around kind of the M&A environment, I think we feel very bullish on it. I know we feel very bullish on it. As you know, there is a very long tail of small players in the industry. The majority of stores in the industry are owned by small players and a lot of those are under significant operational pressure beyond just kind of normal course generational change. And so I think the outreach that Brian leads for us here, I think we've -- we're contacting and having more conversations than we ever had. I think there's a lot of receptivity to what Casey's can bring to an owner of a business as a steward of that business going forward. And I think we feel highly confident in broadly speaking, what's happening in the industry from a consolidation standpoint prospectively and certainly our ability to play a role in continuing to pursue those opportunities in a way that makes sense for us and our shareholders.

Our next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

I just had, I guess, a question on your EBITDA guidance this year. Your 8% to 10% growth expectation is quite impressive. So hoping to hear what gives you the confidence to be able to generate this growth, especially considering the tough comps from last year? And then what are the key drivers of this growth between fuel and inside performance? And I guess, what might drive upside to guidance as well as what could possibly cause you to fall short of guidance?

I'll take a crack at that. I appreciate you acknowledging it. We know that -- listen, it's a big number on an absolute basis. We are very sensitive to that reality and the strong finish to the fourth quarter makes the absolute numbers a little bit bigger. But fundamentally, right, our mousetrap, we are highly confident that mousetrap continues to work, and we believe it is strategically differentiated. And so our algorithm for this business generally is that half of our EBITDA growth is going to come from what we would call the mothership and half is going to come from new units. The prior question, we addressed our confidence in new unit contribution, both building and buying them. So we feel very good about the 120 units and about the flow-through of the new units we've added in fiscal '26. And then from a mothership perspective, right, the strength that we addressed earlier, just the inside store performance, the margin tailwinds that we have broadly in the store and the differentiated offer that we have both in Grocery and Prepared Food, the velocity that we've had in the units and just with the platform expansion into wings, specifically on prepared food and a lot of the momentum on pizza. We need -- if we need 4% EBITDA growth from the mothership, I think between the Grocery business and the margin accretion and the assortment that we have and just the platform expansion and the velocity on the Prepared Food business, we feel really good that there's a path that is largely within our control to land us to that 8% to 10%.

Our next question comes from the line of Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

Great. The inside sales have been particularly strong, but I wanted to just double-click on a question that was asked earlier around chicken wings. Could you just provide a little bit more context around how big you think this can be in terms of percentage of prepared food sales or dollar per box or comp lift or maybe margin? Just to give us some flavor for -- no pun intended, for how to think about the ultimate potential of this initiative? And then, Steve, just a follow-up on the OpEx guide. I think you said for Q1 is up high singles, and that includes credit card fees and seemingly that doesn't go away, but then the full year guide, I think, is 5% to 7%. So could you just describe that dynamic as well?

Yes, Corey, I'll talk about the sales and wings. Still very early stages to determine the whole potential for wings, and we really haven't given any numbers. But ultimately, as we think about long term, and I want to emphasize this, this is a long-term comment. So don't go baking it into any models, Corey. But we think this has the potential to be the size of the pizza business, frankly. Now that -- it took us 40 years to get to where we are today in pizza. So -- so it's going to take us some time to continue to build that credibility. But everything we're seeing right now would suggest that this can be an incremental occasion that it's good enough to stand on its own. And what I'd tell you is even in our Des Moines DMA, where we've had it for over a year, we're comping at a 20% growth rate year-over-year from the launch. So we think there's still a lot of upside there. We still have 2 more years of just rolling it out across the system before we get fully scaled. And once we're fully scaled, then we'll probably be able to do a little more from a marketing perspective to continue to drive the business. So not really prepared to give a number today, but suffice to say, we have a lot of confidence in the team and the plan and the upside potential for that part of the business.

Our next question comes from the line of Irene Nattel with RBC Capital Markets.

Let me just add my congratulations to the chorus. A couple of questions. First of all, I think you mentioned that you're going to complete the conversion of the CEFCO stores this year. So I guess first question is, how should we kind of be thinking about the cadence of lift in, I guess, inside store sales as and once that's completed? And then just a follow-up question on something you just said about wings over the long term. Should we be thinking about wings as kind of having multidimensional offerings over time in the same way that pizza does, for example. So again, like how that could scale up over time?

Yes, Irene, with respect to the CEFCO remodels, yes, we said that we would be largely complete by the end of this fiscal year, and we are still on track to do that. The team is doing a fantastic job getting those remodels underway. What I'd tell you is it's a little bit choppy in terms of trying to model the impact for those. What I can tell you is post remodel, what we've experienced so far in the 50-ish stores that are remodeled is that they've exceeded our expectations. Now having said that, as we go into this next phase of remodel, these remodels are a little more complicated, a little more involved where we have to actually build kitchens in the stores. So the stores are coming offline or are under remodel for, call it, 4 to 6 weeks. And so they'll take a dip in performance while that construction is going on, then they come out the other end and they accelerate. So -- and we'll have close to 130 of those stores throughout the fiscal year in varying stages of that. So a little bit tough to say what the overall impact is. Kind of the way I think about it is it's kind of neutral for this year. We don't see a lot of upside. I don't see really any downside, but it's a process to get through. Going into next fiscal year would be when we're largely clean, the remodels will be done and then we should be able to experience some of that upside. So I think we still have a lot of dry powder left with the CEFCO conversions for next fiscal year.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Mark Carden with UBS.

So you guys called out the strength in whole pies. Do you think you're seeing much incremental food-away-from-home trade-in coming as a result of fuel price increases? And just how are you thinking about price gaps in pizza today relative to the major national chains?

Yes, Mark, a couple of things on that. We are experiencing some great growth on whole pie. And I think it is a combination of the great work our team has done on the innovation front in terms of getting really interesting and unique pizza builds out in the marketplace in conjunction with pulsing in some promotional opportunities to create value for our guests. But by and large, we are priced anywhere from $1 to $3 below the national brand competitors on whole pizzas, and that's -- that tends towards the $3 range, not so much the $1 range overall. If you look in this past year, the top 4 pizza chains that we track have taken about 2.5% in price this year, this past year. We haven't taken any. And we haven't taken any for a couple of years while they have continued to do that. So I think that value proposition is just that much stronger for us right now. With respect to high gas prices, I do think it's interesting because there's been a narrative that pizza velocity in the industry is under pressure because of high gas prices, but we have fuel pumps in front of all of our stores with a big price sign that flashes what the gas price is and our pizza business is up about 10% year-over-year. So I'm not sure that gas price -- there's a strong correlation between gas prices and pizza performance. But suffice it to say, we feel good about our value proposition, and it seems to be resonating with our guests.

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Cerankosky with Northcoast Research.

Great quarter. Congratulations. A question about your closed store base of 41. How many of those are Fikes that are in the process of being remodeled? How many will be sold and what kind of cash might that generate and the other is how many of those are just going to reopen out of the 41 that aren't Fikes?

Yes, Chuck, I'll take that. So the 41, those are not stores that are going to reopen, right? We would have -- we would consider those permanently divested. Some of those are Fikes. The best example I'd give you is the state of Mississippi. So we acquired 10 or so stores, I think, as part of that total transaction in the state of Mississippi and upon further review, decided that just wasn't the right place for us to fly the flag at the moment, given that location and the capital returns that we expected. So we did ultimately sell those stores. And so you can see total monetization on the cash flow statement. We got about $42 million last year from largely the sale of those 41 stores. There were some other things in there, but it gives you a sense of what the monetization of those were. And there were some other CEFCO stores beyond the Mississippi ones, but there were also stores from prior acquisitions. And then sometimes we will close 2 old stores when we build a brand-new store. So it's a variety of things, but CEFCO certainly is contributing there, and Mississippi is probably the highest profile decision that we made against those 41.

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

I wanted to ask, and I know Corey touched on this, but on the OpEx growth, running a bit higher to close out the year, and it sounds like to start the year than the 5% to 7% growth outlook. When do we start to see OpEx growth taper off? And when we think about the drivers, are there new expense initiatives we should be thinking about versus maybe more mechanical items such as lapping nonrecurring costs like the elevated incentive comp?

Yes. It's Steve. I'll take that. So the 5% to 7% for the year, I don't think there's a lot of special new initiatives per se that would be included in that number. We tend to run and the stores are the majority of our operating expense. I think stores are about 75% of our total OpEx. And so you're looking at a 4% kind of wage rate increase across the store base, partially offset by some hours. But by and large, you've got 4% in most of your base there. We will certainly have new units coming in as well, which would increase that. I think the sequencing in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter is probably the most impactful from a modeling standpoint. And so yes, high credit card fee -- higher credit card fees year-over-year first quarter of this year for sure, because of higher retail. And if you think of what contributed to the higher OpEx print in the fourth quarter of '26, a lot of that was discretionary or performance-based. So 4% of the increase we had in the fourth quarter of '26 was discretionary charitable contributions and higher performance compensation. And so the planning assumption is right, we go back to normal course and incentive comp normalizes, we've kind of prefunded a lot of our charitable giving for the next couple of years. And so by the time you get to the fourth quarter, you actually, on a year-over-year basis, would have a much lower OpEx increase. And so when you sequence it that way, you can kind of land it back in that 5% to 7% range.

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Montani with Evercore ISI.

I just wanted to ask about 2 things. One was just a clarification, if I could, in terms of traffic and ticket and how the comp cadence played out throughout the quarter? And then the follow-up was around EBITDA synergy realization from CEFCO. Are you guys closer to $20 million or $10 million for this year? And do you still think $40 million plus is attainable kind of over the next 2 years?

Yes, Mike. With respect to traffic and ticket, we're -- I was really happy with how we performed in the fourth quarter from that perspective. Our traffic was up about 3%. Our ticket was up about 2.5%, and that's basically what gets you to the 5.5% same-store comp. So I feel really good about the balance that we're striking. We're keeping pricing action at a minimum. And largely, that's taking place in the nicotine category. Overall, there's a couple of other areas, candy in particular, that has some price action, virtually none in Prepared Foods. And we're winning on traffic, which is, I think, the more sustainable way to grow the business, and our team is doing a fantastic job driving traffic to the stores and then building that basket once they get there.

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Great quarter here. I wanted to ask about store growth and different geographies and how you think about the competitive landscape is really the question I wanted to ask. You're moving more into Texas and then Florida. These are not big markets for you today, but obviously have tremendous potential going forward. Wondering if you could just touch on any nuances you're seeing from a competitive standpoint in these or any other markets.

Yes, sure, Brad. Certainly, we're getting into some newer geographies for us, as you mentioned, Texas and Florida in particular. And even as we've expanded our footprint further east, into Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Tennessee, we start to run into some different competitors. But overall, we faced some pretty strong competitors in the geographies we do operate in, in a more concentrated basis, and we perform very well there. So we're very confident that in spite of perhaps a different competitive set than we're accustomed to, we perform very well against really the best in the business. And they do well what they do well, and we do good at what we do good at. And so I think our model is a little bit differentiated versus a lot of theirs. And so we compete pretty favorably. Texas, in particular, has been a good market for us as we've gotten in there. Florida is a little different. With us being in the panhandle, I would probably envision us from a store development standpoint, probably moving more north and west towards the core footprint of our geography as opposed to South and East towards the heart of Florida from that perspective. But that's how we're looking at today. We feel very confident in our ability to compete in whatever geography we're operating in.

Our next question comes from the line of Kelly Bania with BMO Capital Markets.

Congrats on a strong quarter. Steve, I wanted to just go back to fuel margins a little bit. You had talked about it a little bit with respect to your comment on the sequencing there. But I guess, I think what sticks out is just clearly how strong the year ended from a fuel margin standpoint, and you're still guiding to your algorithm for fiscal '27. And I think you called out a mid-$0.40s CPG, which I guess would call for continued expansion from the $0.426. And so I'm just curious what drives that further increase in CPGs for next year? Is that just given how strong they've already started out? Is there something more structural with what Casey's is doing internally? And do you think that mid-$0.40s is sustainable in future years? Or could we come off of this kind of elevated environment at some point?

I'll try to address it. So there's -- I think there's a lot of things in the bowl, right? So technically, we're not guiding to mid-$0.40s. We just are telling you mid-$0.40s is what makes the math work. Now having said that, for sure, we're starting off the year strong, right? The exit from the fourth quarter flatters our ability to achieve that number for the course of the year. We know that. We're sensitive to having to lap a really strong number in the fourth quarter of this fiscal year. We don't know what the conflict is going to foretell or how that's going to play out. So we're sensitive to that. But structurally, 2 things on the structural side. When we do the correlations historically, COVID notwithstanding, CPGs have tended to increase pretty consistently with CPI. And so we do generally feel pretty good about that reality. And so for sure, we don't see that necessarily breaking. And secondly, the cost of doing business in the industry for the small players has only gone up and the pressure that they feel across other aspects of the business has also only become more acute. And so for most of the industry, right, the 2/3 that are in chains of 10 stores or less, they just have a checkbook. They don't have a prepared food business and a grocery business and a fuel business. They have a checkbook for the store. They have to pay people the same amount that we have to pay people. They don't have the procurement benefit that we have. They're over-indexed on tobacco relative to us. They don't have any ability to scale or have any kind of a digital platform. The only thing they can do in the short term to help their situation and stay above water is to turn a lever on fuel margin. And so it's very difficult based on the NAICS information for the industry for us to resetting for the industry at a much lower level of CPGs than kind of we see right now, again, conflict notwithstanding. So you put all of that in the bowl, the structural stuff, the entrance strength that we have because of the conflict, we feel like that modeling guide that we have is imminently achievable also based on what we know right now.

Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Darren Rebelez for closing remarks.

All right. Thank you for taking the time to join us on the call today. We look forward to sharing our next 3-year strategic plan in a couple of weeks. Have a great rest of your day. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.