Earnings Labs

Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Wed, May 4, 2016

$179.24

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Avis Budget Group First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Neal Goldner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Neal H. Goldner - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. On the call with me are Larry De Shon, our Chief Executive Officer; and David Wyshner, our President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the company will be discussing forward-looking information that involves risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information. Important risks, assumptions, and other factors that could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements are specified in the company's earnings release and other periodic filings with the SEC, which are available on the Investor Relations' section of our website at avisbudgetgroup.com. We have provided slides to accompany this morning's conference call, which can also be accessed on our website as well. Our comments will focus on adjusted results and other non-GAAP financial measures that are reconciled to our GAAP numbers in our press release and in the earnings call presentation on our website. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Avis Budget Group's Chief Executive Officer, Larry De Shon. Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Neal, and good morning. Our business is about connecting people with what's important to them and I believe Avis Budget Group is as well positioned today around the world to meet this critical need as ever. Yes, we faced some headwinds in the first quarter, but we also made meaningful progress on our strategic initiatives to drive revenue growth and position us to improve margins longer-term. And importantly, as you saw in our earnings release last night, our full-year earnings expectations are unchanged and we remain committed to delivering shareholder value over time. The first quarter was full of challenges. Some of which we…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. You may ask your question.

Chris J. Woronka - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys. Wanted to drill down a little bit more on pricing obviously. I know you've talked in the past about how putting in some pricing increases, there's I guess so-called the decay curve as time approaches. Has there been a change in that through the, I guess, March and the second quarter so far? Are you seeing actually different dynamics as far as that's concerned? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, in the first quarter, there were a number of rate increases that were put in the industry, which is a positive thing. But, I think with the pressure of the fleet position that the industry had, it makes holding onto those rates as it gets into the booking curve very, very difficult. And I think the rate the rate increases started from also was at kind of a lower point. So, even where some of them may be held closer end it started from a lower point. So, I think the good news is that rate increases were attempted. In many of them, there were some good matching as they went out, but then as you got closer into the booking curve with the fleet position they started to erode and particularly started to erode from the kind of third tier parties and then kind of on up. So, we haven't seen that number of attempts of rate increases so far as we look into the second quarter yet. But as fleets tighten up, I would expect that as rate increases go in that there's an opportunity for that to hold closer into the booking curve as fleets are tighter as we go through the second quarter and into the summer.

Chris J. Woronka - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then I guess more from an industry perspective or anything you'd care to share about your own fleet? But, are you seeing more, I guess, harmonized action with all the players in terms of fleet? Because it seems like it's been a little bit erratic throughout last year. Do you think everyone's kind of on the same page now? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Hi, Chris. I'm not going to touch that language, but I think the thing to look at is the utilization that we experienced in the first quarter growing our volumes about 3% on a fleet that was up just over 0.5%. We're running our fleet relatively tight and as we've moved through the first four months of the year, we've actually tightened up the extent to which we're planning on running the fleet over the course of the year.

Chris J. Woronka - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Great. And just finally for me, you mentioned you sold over or about half of the planned risk dispositions through April. How does that compare against last year? Are you kind of selling more in the first half this year than you did last year? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's actually fairly similar to last year. Last year was the first time we really accelerated into the early part of the year as much of our fleet – risk fleet dispositions as we did. We've continued that this year. And we were able to do that even in a somewhat softer residual value environment, with no significant gain or loss on our vehicle dispositions. So, we feel good about how we manage that. And then we obviously had the advantage of having some program cars in our fleet that we could use to de-fleet in areas like Florida and Arizona where we had to adjust our fleet plans based on the volumes we saw.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Healy with Northcoast Research. You may ask your question.

John Healy - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Northcoast Research. You may ask your question.

Thank you. Larry, I wanted to ask a little bit about pricing to start. In the February call, clearly you'd indicated the year started off difficult and the expectation was for flat pricing for the year. Now we know that through March things were a bit more difficult and the pricing expectation is for down one point. If you look at that period of April through December, have your expectations for pricing in that timeframe changed relative to what they were in the February call? And then additionally I wanted to ask, you mentioned the month-on-month improvements, but I just wanted to confirm; has pricing gone positive? Or at least gotten better than flat at this point in the year in terms of a month-over – year-over-year on a monthly basis? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So the way I would characterize it is, you start with February ended worse than what we had thought. And then as we went into March, although March improved over February, March was still not what we had planned for it to be. Then as you go from March into April, April improved again over March. And then as we're looking at May bookings, May is also improving over April. So, we haven't turned positive as of yet, but we're getting very close to it at this point. And we're very optimistic about what we're seeing for June and summer bookings are looking strong and rate is looking significantly better. So, I think it was just the kind of the curve of the pricing trends just delayed a bit and started to improve later than what we had hoped. So fell a little bit harder than we thought at the beginning and then delayed a little bit more than what we had hoped when we went out of the declines in February. But the good news is, every month is getting stronger and we're seeing that in the advance bookings going into summer.

John Healy - Northcoast Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Northcoast Research. You may ask your question.

Okay. And then relative to just kind of your expectations compared to earlier in the February timeframe. Is that April through December expectation much different than it was back in February? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: What I would just say is that the – we're calling the pricing overall down a point for the year, so that incorporates the first quarter results, and then just a slower, a more gradual ramp up to better pricing as we go through the remainder of the year. So, we're going to have some down months, and then we'll have some positive months later in the year to kind of net out the last nine months as flat, which then brings the year down about a point. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: That's right. I think everything is a little bit, just a little bit softer than we had anticipated in January and February. And I think it's important to remember that what we saw in January and February was so weak and so anomalous compared to what we typically experienced. It really was a difficult time to be projecting out for the remainder of the year. So, we have tweaked those estimates as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Agnew with MKM Partners. You may ask your question.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst · MKM Partners. You may ask your question.

Thanks very much. Good morning. I was wondering if you could first reconcile your comments on strong leisure travel, but weak summer break. And if I remember, sometimes spring breaks are a good harbinger for summer demand. And then slightly related, on international in-bound it was weak in the first quarter that you talked about. Are you assuming a continuation of those trends into the summer? And what are the risks that international in-bound continues to negatively surprise? Thank you. Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I think the way to think about it is, as you go through the year the impact that in-bound into North American from particularly Canada and South America, starts to have less impact as a percent of the total volume. It's a big percent of our volume in the winter months, in the first quarter. But as that continues on, our reliance on that volume declines over time. So, yeah, I think as people are looking to go in-bound into the U.S. from those markets, it's going to be a challenge with the currency impacts that have happened. But we don't depend on it as much as we go through the rest of the year.

Christopher Agnew - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst · MKM Partners. You may ask your question.

And any thoughts on like you've got strong leisure travel, but why was spring break so weak if it's predominantly were relined on more leisure travel? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: That's where the international in-bound seem to have a – much more in effect this year than last year, and that's why we call it out. And as Larry said, the markets like Florida and Arizona in February and March probably drive is much international in-bound business as a percentage of their overall business as any areas that we have at any point during the year. So, the in-bound issue becomes smaller just as a percentage of our business as we move into other parts of the year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question. Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. Hi, Larry. So, there's been a few announcements by some OEMs who are ostensibly entering the car rental and car sharing business in some form, examples like GM's Maven and some of the car sharing efforts within Ford Smart Mobility LLC, a separate legal entity, and some others. How does senior management at Avis Budget view these moves? Is this a sign of validation for your core rental business? Or is it new competition that you need to consider maybe not very near-term but over time? Or is it both? Thanks. Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's a lot of people that are getting into the mobility space and car share space. And I'm not surprised by the OEMs that are looking at it as well. And I think the answer to your question is really both. I think that as you take a look at the logistics that are involved in managing car share and car rental are extremely complicated, and we have 15 years of experience on the Zipcar side of managing car share, and we have 70 years of experience on the rental car side of managing this. I mean there's a whole infrastructure and talent skill set that's required; people, systems, equipment. And it's quite complicated. And so, there have been a number of people that have gotten into car share globally, and many have left. There are some that are in car share globally and aren't making any money. We continue to grow Zipcar. We're going to cross the million member, paying member mark this year. We continue to grow locations. We continue to grow use case offerings. So, we're pretty pleased with how we have been able to grow the business and we're growing it internationally. And I just think that the logistics that are involved are – it's in our wheelhouse. It's what we do. And we've got a lot of experience doing it. So, I'm not worried about it. I think it's something we watch, but we're pretty confident about how we can manage that business. Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks, Larry. Can I ask a follow-up on your IT budget? I don't know if you've ever disclosed the size of your annual IT spend. Is that something you could give an order of magnitude or disclosed? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, from an expense perspective, it's in the $100 million range, Adam. Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: $100 million range? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Adam Michael Jonas - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Johnson with Barclays. You may ask your question.

Dan M. Levy - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. You may ask your question.

Hi. Good morning. This is Dan Levy on for Brian. Thanks for taking the question. Just a couple of questions on fleet cost guidance and just overall on industry fleeting levels. First, just wondering on the fleet cost guidance, I know, in the prior call, you assumed residuals as a percent of cap costs would decline by around a point. I assume that that's down. Could you just disclose what the magnitude of that is? And if residual as a percent of cap cost is down, what is it that's allowing you to maintain your fleet cost guidance? Is it better cap costs? Is it a longer holding period? Are you seeing better benefits on your disposals through alternative channels? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure, Dan. Our expectation is now that fleet residual values will be down around two points as a percentage of cap cost and we had gone into the year expecting it to be down around one point. So, we've seen about a point of softening there in our expectations and we've done a number of things to mitigate that. It actually starts with the fact that in markets where we were a little bit heavily fleeted relative to demand in the first quarter. We used program cars fairly aggressively to de-fleet to the right levels. Program cars on average tend to be a little bit more expensive than risk vehicles and so that's one of the things that is helping us. And then we're working through our fleet optimization opportunities as we see different cars having different values as the year plays out, larger cars and SUVs doing better than smaller ones and we've re-optimized both risk and program cars, hold periods and our mix of vehicles really down to the make and model level to help mitigate the impact of residual values. So far, this year, being a bit softer than we had expected and the possibility that that will continue to some extent going forward.

Dan M. Levy - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. You may ask your question.

Okay. And is it safe to say that if we see the rental risk auction data under-performing to the magnitude that it did, in the past couple months it was down 6%, I believe. Is it safe to say that there would be incremental risk to that fleet cost guidance? Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: Clearly, if the market softens relative to where it is now there would be incremental – there could be risk there. On the flipside, if the market strengthens a bit that would be helpful to us. I think it's important to know one of the things I mentioned, and that is that auction sites really had a lot of cars at the start of the year. They were backed up a bit. And I think we've worked through a significant amount of that backlog. It was both program cars and risk cars from a variety of sources. January and the first half of February is not a great time to work that backlog down. And I think what we saw in February and March and even to an extent in April was that backlog being worked down, which had an impact on residual values. And that phenomenon shouldn't exist to quite the same level that it did at the start of the year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Hamzah Mazari with Sterne Agee. You may ask your question.

Hamzah Mazari - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst · Sterne Agee. You may ask your question.

Hey. Good morning. Just a question on European margins; I know you guys don't disclose that. But any color as to how those are trending? And maybe an update on some of the initiatives you may have in place to improve the concentration of the European network? Thank you. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes. As you know, we've been working for a number of years to – on a strategy to improve our European margins. We've put in a number of initiatives to drive efficiencies across the operations as well as into our back office administrative work as well. And this has all been with an eye that when the economy starts to recover in Europe that we would be repositioned in a better place to be able to improve our margins over time. So, those strategies are continuing. We've been updating our IT systems, which has caused a lot of headaches by having a lot of outdated overlapping systems that varied by country. We've been consolidating all those, putting everyone on the standard systems, reducing our IT expense. We moved all of our back office work into Budapest and eliminated those functions in the countries. We consolidated the countries down into regions. So, we've improved our performance. Our operational performance as it relates to Net Promoter Score as well as our utilization. We've been growing ancillary revenue and expanding our Budget brand. So, there's a number of initiatives that are going. And I think what you'll start to see as the economy recovers there and volume starts to rebound, that's what will have a bigger impact on our profit margins as we go forward. So, I think all the hard work that's been going on there for the last four years is starting to come together and new initiatives being put in place to continue to drive that over time.

Hamzah Mazari - Sterne Agee CRT

Analyst · Sterne Agee. You may ask your question.

Thank you. Just a quick follow-up. Just wanted to confirm the cadence of pricing. You made a lot of comments around pricing. Is it fair to say that Q2 is going to be down still low single-digits, Q3 flattish, and then Q4 up low single-digits? Is that the right way to think about pricing in your guidance? Or is there some flexibility around how that moves around? Thank you. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: I would say yes to both. It's not a crazy way to think about things at all, and could very well be the way it plays out. We really don't want to get into quarter-by-quarter guidance, and that's why we really spoke about the first quarter and then the subsequent nine months in aggregate. The path you're laying out could very well be the way things play out, but I think it's also quite possible, there'll be a little bit of delays around that as we see some seasonal effects. The other thing that's worth noting is that I do think we have an easier comp in the fourth quarter than any other point this year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anj Singh with Credit Suisse. You may ask your question. Zachary Bakal - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Good morning. This is actually Zack in for Anj. So, given the number of headwinds you've talked about in terms of pricing, whether it's Brazil or FX or international in-bound being down. It seems like your expectations for the next nine months is not flattish core pricing, but core pricing actually being positive. Can you give us some sense of how that has trended and whether or not you're seeing improved strength there? And what your expectations for that are over the next nine months? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Yeah. You know the acquisition of Brazil I think closed in April of last year, so the Brazil impact that we had in the first quarter really shouldn't be a continuing impact now that we've anniversaried that transaction. And I would – while the commercial leisure mix as I pointed out, had a 50 basis point impact, I consider that mix to be part of what's going on in our core. So, I would actually be inclined to view the comments that we made about pricing going forward as being applicable to the core, if you will. And not distinguish between the core and something else as we look out over the remaining nine months. Zachary Bakal - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Got it. Thanks for clarifying. And then you talked a little bit more about the free cash flow yield. I think one of the things you've sort of mentioned there is that time can have a significant issue there. But in addition, you've sort of given out sensitivities to EBITDA, for example in relation to some of your operating drivers. Given that some investors do have some concerns about how wide that range is and whether or not that's sort of a safe range, could you speak to whether or not the sensitivities to EBITDA should be roughly similar to the sensitivities that you'll see to movements in relation to your free cash flow? David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Yes. I think EBITDA and free cash flow will generally tend to move in line with one another. So, there's always some differences between them; but generally speaking, if our EBITDA were toward the higher end of our range, I'd expect free cash flow to be toward the higher end of the range. And similarly at the lower end of both ranges.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin Milota with JPMorgan. You may ask your question.

Kevin M. Milota - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. You may ask your question.

Hey. Good morning, guys. I was hoping you could give us some color on how much of your May business is booked at this point, and how much of the June to September businesses booked as of now? And then follow on to that would be how confident are you in that business follow-through, given that first quarter surprised to the downside? And then secondly on the holding periods for fleet, could you give us a sense for what or how much you're extending your holding periods on the risk fleet? And why not just take a mark on those assets now and move on? Thank you. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: You know we're obviously in the month of May, so bookings are, as far as our percentage of our total volume for the month of May bookings are strong. I don't know the exact percent that we've taken for the month, but we're in the booking curve now. And the pricing that we're seeing, we're encouraged by, significantly encouraged by for the month of May. When you take a look at over summer, at this point probably 15%, I'm going to estimate, of our bookings are probably taken at this point. And once again, the indications from those bookings are that both volume is coming in strong as well as rate continues to improve. So, there's nothing in what we're seeing at this point for May or for summer, although summer is still pretty early, that gives us any cause for concern. Larry D. De Shon - Chief Executive Officer & Director: And then on the fleet side, I think we'll probably end up extending lives of vehicles slightly, which I put more in the matter of in weeks. It could be anywhere from two weeks to eight weeks as we work through our optimization. But not significant or drastic changes in how long we're holding cars. We still like to sell the significant majority of vehicles that we sell on a risk basis in the 30,000 mile to 40,000 mile range and that really hasn't changed. I just want to emphasize that in the first quarter, as we sold a lot of vehicles, we did not have any significant gains or losses on disposition. And so, we feel good about the rates at which we've been depreciating vehicles. I think we would have liked to have some gains in the first quarter, but where we ended up was really right in line with where we've been depreciating to.

Kevin M. Milota - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. You may ask your question.

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And final question comes from Afua Ahwoi with Goldman Sachs. You may ask your question. Afua Ahwoi - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thank you. Just two quick questions from me. First, the $50 million incremental investment you talked to in the – on the fourth quarter call. How much of that was in Q1, if at all? And how should we think about the spread over the next few quarters? And then on the other side of that, are there any savings we can expect to offset some of that spend? And then the second question I have, and it's something I continue to struggle with is on your comments on the industry being right-sized or fleet being right-sized. How should we think about that? Because I think I believe on the fourth quarter, we were expecting the industry to be right-sized going into Q1 and obviously, given the soft spring break that through us off a little bit. So, as we think about the balance of the year, is the plan to grow your fleet less than demand? In line with demand? How is the best way to think about when you say the industry is right-sized, what exactly that means? Thank you. David B. Wyshner - President & Chief Financial Officer: Sure. Afua, it's David. I'll tackle the first part and Larry will tackle the second. With respect to the $50 million investment, I would say that some – a small portion of it occurred in the first quarter, but probably less than 25%. Some of the areas that we're investing in such as our investment in incremental marketing will be more concentrated in the second quarter both in the U.S. where we have new commercials running for Budget. And particularly, in Europe, where we're going…