Oliver G. Brewer
Analyst · Longbow Research
Thanks, Brad. Good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for joining us today for this call. For the first time in my tenure and, hopefully, the start of a trend, I'm happy to start by saying we're pleased with our results. For Q1, on a constant currency continuing business basis, our team delivered a revenue increase of 12% year-over-year and our pro forma operating income more than doubled. Our sell-through, brand momentum, margins, operating efficiency and cost management were all improved. I'll cover the sell-through and brand momentum proportion later in my comments, but I do want to also highlight the strong progress our operations team has made in improving our supply chain and manufacturing base. When I came to Callaway last March, we had just moved our assembly operation in Mexico and we were experiencing significant cost and service issues, particularly in our custom club business. One year later, the situation looked completely different. In our Monterrey, Mexico assembly operation, we have achieved a 45% labor cost per unit improvement and are now delivering 95% of our custom club orders to the consumer within 5 days of receiving that order. These are approaching world-class performance metrics but, fortunately, we see further room for improvement and are taking steps to achieve that. Similarly, in our golf ball business, structural and process changes are delivering a 49% year-over-year productivity gain. Congrats and well done to the operations team for this progress and for their commitment to further gains. As we all know, these changes set up and support the gross margin and sell-through improvements we are seeing in the marketplace. Looking at the regional performance for the quarter, our U.S. revenues were up 7% year-over-year based on improved sell-through and brand momentum. On a continuing business basis, this was a 16% year-over-year increase despite challenging year-over-year weather. Internationally, on a local currency basis, our European business was down 8% for the quarter, but our Japan business, historically, one of our strongest and most profitable businesses, was up an impressive 22% year-over-year. Unfortunately, as has well been documented, currency headwinds offset most of the gains in Japan and are anticipated to provide translation challenges going forward. Still foreign exchange aside, I want to thank and congratulate the Japan team for a great operating performance and a strong start to the year. On most of our previous calls, I'd spent considerable time outlining our turnaround plan and talking about a new Callaway. One that builds on our considerable strengths and tradition but is also significantly more dynamic and contemporary. We are fortunately now starting to see some of the earlier results from these change efforts. Our marketing and our product appear to be resonating well with consumers both in the U.S. and abroad, especially our X Hot product line, in particular, the X Hot Fairway Wood, which I believe is the best Fairway Wood in golf, and has returned Callaway to a position of strength in this important category. All reports show our sell-through market shares are trending up on a global basis. In the U.S., our February year-to-date hard goods share of 13.4% is up from 12.6% the same period last year and with improved momentum and improved inventory position. In Japan, our hard goods market share is at 12% through the first week of April, up from approximately 10% in the same time period last year. In Europe, we don't yet have market share information, but account-specific data is indicative of market share gains as well. We are very pleased with our year-to-date hard goods sell-through and maintain strong expectations for the future. However, after further analysis, I do want to update a statement I made on our last call. In that call, I said I expected to regain hard goods market share in all of our major markets in 2013. That is certainly happening in Japan. Europe is to be determined, but we remain optimistic. However, after more analysis, we are less confident that this will happen in the U.S. Our new launches are selling through well, and we expect to continue to gain share in this portion of our business. However, in 2012, a significant portion of our market share was from products or programs that were not possible, and during the year 2012, we lowered our field inventory position by selling through old or excess inventory that we believe was or would cloud the channel or cannibalize new product sales. If all goes as planned, we're going to sustain the lower field inventory position we are now enjoying. We are also not going to anniversary a lot of this less profitable business, and thus, our full year total market share may not be up as much as we had previously assumed. Fortunately, I believe the quality of the share, our brand momentum and profitability are certainly headed in the right direction. I'm very comfortable with where we are and where we're headed, but I also just wanted to clarify these expectations since I know many analysts and investors also track Datatec sell-through information. Lastly, for the first time in several years, independent brand research conducted this spring showed an uptick in consumer perceptions for the Callaway brand and purchase interest in our product. This research matches the anecdotal feedback we're receiving, as well as the sell-through market share of our premium products. It's another strong indication that we're headed in the right direction. Turning now to market conditions. As everyone already knows, the weather patterns in North America and Europe were not very conducive for golf this winter and early spring. As a result, these markets got off to a slow start this year, which is the exact opposite of what happened last year, when the golf industry had one of the best early weather seasons in recent memory. This year's slow start to the season, along with some market share shifting among major brands, is leading to some earlier-than-normal promotional activity and creates a higher-than-normal level of uncertainty for the all-important peak season that runs from April through August. Net-net, we are still hoping for a good peak season, but at this point, there is some added market risks. On the positive side, we are in a relatively strong position, thanks to our sell-through and our field inventory positions. In addition to the market conditions, exchange rates, especially the yen and to a lesser extent, the pound, are continuing to provide significant headwinds. The timing of the currency movements, along with our accounting for the foreign exchange hedge contract gains, will shift our earnings towards the first half and away from the back half of the year. Brad will outline this issue with more specificity during his comments. However, for purpose of emphasis, let me clarify that to the best of our abilities, all of these comments and expectations for market conditions and foreign exchange are fully baked into our forecast and the guidance we are providing. With that said, let me turn to the guidance. For the first half, we are decreasing our revenue forecast from $555 million to $540 million. This decrease is based on the previous discussed market conditions, as well as the foreign exchange headwinds. For the first half, this guidance would deliver a 7% increase in continuing business constant currency revenue. On the strength of our improved operating results and the fact that our hedging gains occur in the first half, we are increasing our first half earnings guidance from $0.33 to $0.44 per share. For the full year, we are now expecting revenues of approximately $830 million, a reduction of $20 million, which is almost entirely due to exchange rates. However, we are holding our previous earnings expectations for breakeven net income based on the hedging efforts and our improved operating performance, which includes those sell-through cost management and operational efficiencies. Results consistent with this guidance would show a pro forma constant currency continuing business revenue increase of 12% for the year and an approximate $70 million improvement in pro forma pre-tax income. When I step back and I look at the total picture, I'm proud of the team's results and pleased with the pace of our transformation. This transformation, paired with the strength of our global brand and recovering market conditions, is our primary investment thesis. In closing, I remain confident that the clear and specific actions we are taking will in fact turn this business around and that we have a promising long-term outlook. During the balance of the year, we'll be working to further drive our change effort along the same playbook that I outlined to you for over the last year. We expect continued improvement in operating efficiencies, product excellence and engaging messagings, and that this will lead to brand momentum. Over time, we believe this, in turn, will lead to steadily improved financial performance and shareholder value. We did not predict nor can we control this year's weather pattern or foreign exchange movements. However, and this is the part I would like to emphasize, the items that are in our control are performing consistent with, or in some cases, better than expectations. We are on track for our turnaround plan, which we previously told you, and we continue to believe is a multiyear process. I look forward to continuing to keep you updated on our progress and appreciate your interest and support. Brad, over to you.