Carl Russo
Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead
Thank you, William. Before I speak to what is ahead, I would like to highlight a few items from the quarter and year just completed. First, bookings in Q4 got off to a slow start but finished strongly, and we expect that strength to continue into this year. Second, we have been receiving CAF II related orders since early in Q4, and while there has been some discussion in the market around the CAF II program driving incremental revenue, our view remains unchanged. We see the effect of CAF II as selling a floor underneath our customers' access market CapEx plans. We are reminded of the broadband stimulus program years ago that was expected to be additive. However, in retrospect, it was substitutive. This time it could be different. However, we have no indication that this is the case. Third, I'm encouraged by the progress of our partnership with Ericsson as we are collaborating on significant opportunities in both international and domestic markets. Finally, our AXOS and conference platforms are well and truly in the market, and the solution offerings based on them continue to show good traction throughout the quarter. As for the future, I would like to share my views on what you should expect to see from the market, and from Calix in 2016. In order to have a better understanding of where we are going, it helps to understand where we have come from. The last three years have been challenging in the access market. While many of our peers have actually been shrinking, we have been growing, although that rate has continued to slow from 16% in 2013 to 5% in 2014, to 2% last year. Over the past two years we have made deliberate and significant investments in R&D to position ourselves in front of what we believe could be the biggest shift power market will have ever seen, and that is the shift to software defined access. Our AXOS platform will allow our customers to build an access network that is fast, always on, and simple. And in so doing allow them to dramatically shift to speed and efficiency with which they bring new services to their subscribers. AXOS, our operating system for software defined access, and COMPASS, its complimentary SAS platform positioned us to improve our R&D efficiency as well. With that, the growth in the rate of our investment in R&D will now begin to slow over the course of 2016. And as William mentioned, as a result of this investment, we have a fantastic set of solutions that are growing fast which brings me to my next subject, and that is growth. As I mentioned over these last three years, we have continued to grow. However that growth rate is not what we aspire to. We believe that 2016 will mark a reversal of that trend with stronger growth this year than last. With captive creating a floor under access market CapEx for several of our larger customers. Our expansion will come from new markets and customers driven by our new platforms and products. As an example, our initiative in the unlicensed wireless edge market has resulted in the growth of our combined GigaCenter and COMPASS solution, and I believe we are just scratching the service of what could ultimately be a very large market for Calix. Next generation fiber and copper technologies promise a new set of infrastructure upgrades as our customers stay ahead of the relentless growth in subscriber demand, and lowering the cost of building and operating these networks is a core focus of AXOS and COMPASS. In short, we believe we are well placed to take advantage of the entry points these technology shifts afford us. This all adds up to our primary mission in 2016, establishing the platform for profitable growth. Our focus will be to raise the earnings growth rate while driving our OpEx growth below our revenue growth. However, as we have reset the baseline investment in the business, this will take some time to achieve. That being said, I believe that you will see operating income leverage begin to show over the course of 2016. It is in our hands to execute on the opportunity that is right in front of us. And with that, I will open the call for questions. Operator?