Sherman Miller
Analyst · Heather Jones Research
Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. I want to remind everyone that today's remarks may include forward-looking statements. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties described in our SEC filings. I'd like to begin with a question we believe is most important as we look at Cal-Maine from this point in the cycle. How does the earnings power of the company evolve from here? There are really 2 timing questions underneath that. The first is when the conventional shell egg market begins to rebalance. The second is when the investments we are making in Prepared Foods translate into greater earnings contribution. Starting with conventional eggs, the market remains oversupplied, which continues to put downward pressure on wholesale prices. The key question is the timing of rebalancing. There are some early indicators worth watching. According to the American Egg Board September supply commentary based on assessments collected through June, AEB estimates the U.S. layer flock at approximately 336 million to 343 million birds, roughly 4 million below its previous estimate. AEB also reports that August hatch numbers are down approximately 12% year-over-year and the cancellations are becoming more common. From a production standpoint, AEB estimates an average of approximately 19.9 million cases per month over the last 3 months, a slight reduction from its prior report. These indicators do not establish that the market will turn, but they provide important context on the potential direction of supply. High-path AI could also affect the timing of when supply rebalances with demand. As shown on Slide 9 of our earnings presentation, activity has historically increased with fall wild bird migration, although timing and severity vary by year, we're approaching the period when the historical curve has typically turned upward. While a meaningful layer outbreak could tighten supply and support egg prices because relatively small changes in supply can have an outsized market impact, the healthier and more sustainable outcome is for normal industry economics to work. Our focus remains on rigorous biosecurity to protect our flocks and reduce exposure. Importantly, we do not see structural weakness in egg demand. The data remains constructive across retail, foodservice and exports. According to NielsenIQ, calendar year-to-date through August, measured retail egg volume increased approximately 4%. More recently, in the 4 weeks ended August 29, 2026, national retail dozens remained slightly positive year-over-year even as average price per dozen declined approximately 27%. Affordability and greater promotional activity should provide additional support to consumption as we move into the seasonally stronger fall baking and holiday periods. The demand trends within Specialty Shell Eggs are particularly constructive. NielsenIQ data show that calendar year-to-date combined U.S. cage-free, organic, free range and pasture raised dozens sold at retail increased approximately 6%, outpacing the approximately 4% growth of the overall egg category. We are also seeing healthy demand beyond retail. According to the American Egg Board citing Circana data, QSR egg servings increased approximately 2.4% year-to-date through July, representing approximately 69 million in incremental egg servings. And American Egg Board data show that U.S. egg export volume increased approximately 29% year-to-date with July representing the highest monthly export volume since May 2023. More fundamentally, eggs remain exceptionally well positioned against durable consumer trends around protein, nutrition, convenience, simple ingredients and value. Taken together, this gives us confidence in the long-term demand foundation even as supply and demand work back toward balance. That brings us to the more important point for Cal-Maine. The current cycle needs to be viewed in the context of how much the company has already changed. The transformation is not prospective. It's already visible in our mix. What comes next is scaling the earnings contribution. During the first quarter, Specialty Shell Eggs and Prepared Foods represented approximately 54% of net sales, including approximately 12% for Prepared Foods. Conventional Shell Eggs remain foundational to Cal-Maine. Our scale, vertically integrated operating model, customer relationships and national distribution capabilities are significant competitive advantages, and the business has demonstrated substantial cash-generating capacity through the cycle in the past. Specialty Shell Eggs broaden that foundation. Our ability to serve consumers across conventional, cage-free, nutritionally enhanced, organic, brown, pasture-raised and free-range eggs is an important competitive advantage. It allows us to participate across price points and consumer preferences rather than relying on any single segment of the category. Specialty Shell Eggs and our cost-plus and hybrid pricing structures also create a more diversified economic profile. They do not eliminate commodity exposure, but we believe they reduce the extent to which daily conventional wholesale egg prices alone impact Cal-Maine's earnings potential. Prepared Foods takes that diversification further and brings us to the second major timing question. When will the investments we are making translate into greater earnings contribution? This is a multiyear capacity and commercialization build. Investment, commissioning and start-up costs necessarily precede full utilization and earnings contribution. The question is not simply when capacity comes online, it's how quickly we convert that capacity into customer demand, utilization, fixed cost absorption and profitable growth. We expect Prepared Foods production capacity to increase by more than 60% by the first half of fiscal 2028 compared to the end of fiscal 2026. Our high-speed pancake line is expected to add approximately 12 million pounds of annual production capacity through early fiscal 2027. Our network optimization and expansion project is expected to add approximately 17 million pounds of annual scrambled egg production capacity through fiscal 2027. In Crepini, our investment is expected to add approximately 18 million pounds of additional production capacity progressively through fiscal 2028. Those projects are complemented by the additional $54 million of Prepared Foods capacity investments we announced last quarter. The Echo Lake, Crepini, Creighton Brothers and Van's acquisitions have broadened our capabilities, customer base and routes to market. The next phase is increasingly about scaling those platforms and converting the increased production capacity we're building into profitable growth. Importantly, the addressable opportunity extends well beyond breakfast. The measured prepared breakfast category alone represents approximately $8.4 billion in annual U.S. retail sales, but our broader opportunity is egg-based Prepared Foods across multiple meal occasions and dayparts, including breakfast, on-the-go, snacking, after school and convenient meals. Our strategy is to leverage our capabilities in eggs and protein across a larger set of products, customers, channels and consumer occasions. Capacity comes first, commercialization and customer demand follow, earnings contribution builds as volume scales, utilization increases, fixed costs are absorbed and operations mature. That progression is important to understanding both where our earnings are today and the earnings power we're building. With that, I'll turn the call over to Max to review our first quarter financial results.