W. Benn
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Well, thank you, David. Total revenues of The Cheesecake Factory for the quarter were $418.9 million compared to the prior year second quarter, an increase of 2.7%. Restaurant revenues reflect a 1.3% increase in total restaurant operating weeks, primarily from the opening of two new restaurants during the trailing 15-month period, plus a 1.6% increase in average weekly sales. Overall, comparable sales of The Cheesecake Factory and Grand Lux Café restaurants increased 1.6% for the quarter. By concept, comparable sales increased 1.6% and 0.9% at The Cheesecake Factory and Grand Lux Café, respectively. As we discussed previously, sequential sales comparisons at both concepts were impacted in the second quarter by holiday shifts and by heavy Gift Card redemptions in the first quarter. In terms of the components that comprise comparable sales, traffic was up 1.4%, as David mentioned. We had another 1.4% in pricing, stemming from an effective menu price increase of about 0.6% in our winter 2010 menu change. However, a portion of our menu price increase wasn't realized in the second quarter because of ongoing check management by guests, particularly with regard to beverages. Looking ahead, we plan to implement a 1% effective menu price increase in our summer 2010 menu change, which will give us about 1.6% of menu pricing entering the fourth quarter of this year. At the bakery, external sales were $14.1 million, down slightly versus the prior year. Cost of sales increased slightly to 24.5% of revenue for the second quarter of 2010 compared to 24.3% in the same quarter last year. The 20 basis point increase was due primarily to pressure from dairy and cheese costs, as expected, offset by pricing leverage on commodity costs and savings from our cost of sales initiatives. Total labor was 32.5% of revenue for the second quarter, down 60 basis points from 33.1% in the prior year. This decrease was attributable to overall productivity gains from our operational initiatives and leverage from positive comparable sales. Other operating costs and expenses were 24% of revenues for the second quarter of 2010, down 30 basis points from 24.3% in the second quarter last year. Savings from our cost management initiatives and comparable sales leverage, plus lower workers' compensation and general liability insurance, were partially offset by expected slightly higher marketing costs due to timing. Our cost savings initiatives benefiting cost of sales, labor and other operating expenses, were at the top of our expected range in the second quarter, resulting in year-over-year savings of about $3 million during the quarter. Moving on to G&A expenses. They were 5.7% of revenues in the second quarter, down 80 basis points as compared to the second quarter of 2009. The majority of this favorability came from lapping the accrual related to our Chairman and CEO's retirement plan reported in the second quarter of last year. Depreciation expense for the second quarter was 4.3% of revenue, down 30 basis points versus the prior-year period. This positive comparison was driven by lower depreciation resulting from the impairment charge we recorded in the fourth quarter of 2009 as well as positive comparable sales leverage. Operating margins in the second quarter of 2010 improved 180 basis points to 8.9%, putting us on track to surpass our intermediate-term goal of returning to 2007 operating margin levels. We now expect to achieve our goal by the end of this year, a year earlier than we originally anticipated. Interest expense includes $7.4 million to unwind the remainder of our interest rate collar as compared to a charge of $3.3 million for a similar expense in the prior-year quarter. The remainder of the interest expense line was $1 million lower in the second quarter of this year due to a lower balance on our revolving credit facility. We decided to unwind the entire remaining $100 million interest rate collar this quarter rather than unwinding just the portion relating to the amount of debt we repaid. We eliminated the risk of waiting to unwind the collar, as we believed it would likely cost us more to wait and to do it in the future. As a result, we no longer have any interest rate collars in place on our remaining debt balance. During the second quarter, we repurchased 670,090 shares of our common stock at a cost of $17.4 million in the open market and under our 10B51 plan. We have approximately 6.7 million shares remaining in our current share repurchase authorization. Our liquidity position continues to be solid, with a cash balance of $86 million at quarter end, despite using some of our cash to fund our share repurchases, pay down our debt balance by $30 million and unwind the interest rate collar. Cash flow from operations for the first six month of the year was approximately $76 million. Net of roughly $18 million of cash used for capital expenditures, we generated about $58 million in free cash flow in the first half of the year. That wraps up our business and financial overview for the second quarter of 2010. Now I'll spend a few minutes on our outlook for the third quarter of 2010 and our current thoughts on the full year. As we've done in the past, we continue to provide our best estimates for earnings per share ranges based on realistic comparable sales assumptions. Our comparable sales assumption factors in everything that we know as of today, which includes quarter-to-date trends, what we think will happen in the weeks ahead, known [audio gap] (0:14:49.5) and the effect of any shifts associated with holidays. As has been our practice, we do not plan to give any more specifics on third quarter-to-date comparable sales trends on this call. With that said, for the third quarter of 2010, we estimate diluted earnings per share between $0.31 and $0.33 based on an assumed range of comparable sales between flat and positive 1%. Although we did not talk specifically about the second half of the year in April when we last provided our outlook for 2010, our implied comparable sales assumption for the back half of the year has not changed. Macro indicators have been soft and are slowing, as David mentioned. In addition, we're lapping a more difficult comparison in the third quarter. This suggests that it's prudent to be cautious and certainly, there is no externally driven reason to increase our assumptions at this time. Earnings per share for the third quarter will be impacted by a few items: First, we're expecting the dairy pressure that we saw in the second quarter to continue, driving higher year-over-year cost of sales. Additionally, pre-opening expenses will be higher on a year-over-year basis due to our new restaurant opening scheduled for August. There were no new restaurant openings in the third quarter last year. And finally, we're expecting additional marketing expenses in the third quarter, primarily, again, due to timing. These three items combined impact third quarter earnings per share by about $0.04. For the full year 2010, we now expect diluted earnings per share between $1.32 and $1.38 based on an assumed comparable sales range of between positive 1% and 1.5%. This represents our best estimate as of today, assuming no significant decline in the economy. Additionally, by the time we get to the fourth quarter, we would be lapping our toughest comparable sales comparisons of the year. With about 60% of our commodities contracted for 2010, we still expect food cost inflation to be between flat and up 1% this year. This reflects lower contracted prices for our proteins, offset by slightly higher expected dairy and fish costs. Our full year EPS also reflects a slightly higher expectation for cost savings from the initiatives that we implemented in 2009. We now expect to realize between $10 million and $12 million in savings in 2010, up from the previous range of $8 million to $10 million. Year-to-date, we have realized about $8.5 million in savings. We continue to expect our tax rate to be between 29% and 30% in 2010, and our projection for capital spending in 2010 remains at $45 million to $50 million. In closing, the key takeaways from our 2010 full year outlook are that: One, we still expect to see slightly positive comparable sales in the second half of the year; secondly, our earnings per share range implies operating margins of between 7.5% and 7.7% in 2010, so we anticipate doing better than our initial intermediate-term goal of returning to 2007 operating margin levels of 7.3%; and finally, the midpoint of our EPS sensitivity for the year reflects a healthy 26% growth in earnings per share as compared to 2009. With that said, we'll take your questions. In order to accommodate as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and then re-queue with any additional questions.