Aaron Alt
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thank you, Jason, and good morning. Strong demand, strong execution, strong profit, strong adjusted free cash flow, strong liquidity, targeted and increased investments in the business, incremental return of capital to shareholders. We did what we said we would do, and as a result, delivered a successful financial fourth quarter to close out a successful fiscal '26, even before including the positive impact of the anticipated tariff recovery. The anchor to the story for both the quarter and the fiscal year was broad-based and strong volume demand across the enterprise. At the enterprise level, we grew operating earnings 30% in the quarter and 30% on the year. We grew EPS by 40% in the quarter and 37% on the year. In addition to the outstanding P&L performance, the company generated $5 billion in adjusted free cash flow for the year. We accomplished all of this while providing service levels at or near record levels to our customers, navigating regulatory changes and navigating an evolving macroeconomic landscape. This success demonstrates the resiliency of our business model and our focus on execution. Let's look at our fourth quarter consolidated financial performance. Total company revenue for the quarter was $63.7 billion, an increase of 6%, driven by strong demand in our Pharmaceutical and Specialty Solutions segment with contributions from our 3 growth businesses that make up Other. Gross profit for the quarter grew 16% to $2.6 billion, driven by broad-based contributions from all 5 of our operating segments. Gross profit growth outpaced consolidated SG&A, which grew 9.5% for the quarter. While remaining disciplined on cost, we continue to make intentional investments in automation, technology and capability to drive long-term value. The inclusion of our acquisitions also contributed to year-over-year SG&A growth. Overall, our efforts resulted in enterprise operating income of $935 million, up 30% versus last year. I will address segment drivers when I discuss segment performance. But upfront, I do want to call out in the quarter, we recorded a onetime $100 million net operating earnings benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds in our GMPD segment. This reflects increased clarity and confidence in receiving approximately $200 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, offset primarily by payables to customers for the increased prices they paid related to the IEEPA tariffs. We view the refund as nonrecurring and would note, on an ongoing basis, we continue to incur costs from the tariffs that replaced IEEPA. Below the line, interest and other expense was $53 million. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by the impact of acquisition-related financing. We achieved a full year tax rate of 19% based on a fourth quarter rate of 22.5%. These operational and financial metrics culminated in fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.91, a 40% increase over prior year. $0.31 of the EPS is due to recording the IEEPA tariff refund or approximately 15 percentage points of the total 40 percentage point growth. Now I'll turn to cash, our capital allocation and strategic updates for fiscal '26. As I referenced, we generated $5 billion of adjusted free cash flow and ended the year with $4.9 billion of cash on hand. We did so while also maintaining our disciplined capital allocation framework to drive shareholder value. We continue to invest significant capital back into the business to enable profitable growth, deploying $264 million in CapEx in the fourth quarter and $649 million in CapEx for the year. These investments include automation, supply chain technology, customer solutions and platform capabilities to enable future earnings growth. We did not need to repay indebtedness as we are already within our targeted leverage ratio. We did not fund a meaningful M&A in the quarter, but we did complete an incremental $350 million share repurchase program, which, when added to prior quarter's repurchase efforts, totaled $1.35 billion of share repurchase during the year at an average price of $187 per share. For the full year, we repurchased $600 million more than our previous baseline commitment. With respect to liquidity, we are today confirming a new $4 billion revolver program, replacing 3 historic facilities. While we have a strong cash position, the updated facility provides us with strong liquidity on a simplified and more efficient basis than prior programs, which have been sunset. I will now transition to our segment level results, beginning with Pharma. Fourth quarter revenue for the segment grew 6% to $58.8 billion. We observed robust brand sales originating from our existing customer base and recognized roughly offsetting tailwinds from GLP-1 growth and headwinds from IRA WACC changes, each worth approximately 500 basis points. We also saw the profit positive impact of brand to generic conversion in our revenue results. Pharma segment profit was $645 million, growing 21%, driven by growth in our brand and Specialty portfolios. We also saw positive performance across our generics program, observing continued strong demand, aided by brand to generic conversions and consistent market dynamics. The core distribution business remains highly durable, and we have continued to demonstrate our ability to be compensated for value we provide during times of regulatory change. In our GMPD segment, fourth quarter revenue was $3.1 billion. This represented a 2% decline and is impacted by the revenue reduction from expected payables to customers associated with our anticipated tariff refund and lower distribution volumes. This was partially offset by growth in Cardinal Health brand, which on a reported basis declined 2% in the United States. Excluding this tariff impact, we saw the sixth consecutive quarter of at least mid-single-digit Cardinal Health brand growth in the U.S. Fourth quarter GMPD segment profit increased $80 million in comparison to the prior year, growing to $150 million. GMPD segment profit was $50 million, normalized for the $100 million impact of the IEEPA tariff refund within the GMPD segment. While this industry and our business remain a work in progress, the significant increase in profitability reflects solid underlying operational performance and the impact of recording the onetime net IEEPA tariff refund benefit. The team remains focused on executing our improvement plan, driving cost efficiencies and managing supply chain resilience to serve our customers effectively. The multiyear progress and earnings expansion, this plan has driven, has created significant value for our shareholders, and we remain committed to prioritizing value creation. Next, our other growth businesses also had a successful quarter. This group delivered $1.7 billion in revenue or 7% growth and $183 million in segment profit or 14% growth. While we experienced good demand in the at-Home Solutions business, we lapped the ADS acquisition in the quarter, while at the same time purposely curating our customer base and category management opportunities through the ROI lens. We also continued our investments in infrastructure and technology to achieve increased economies of scale. The integration of Advanced Diabetes Supply is progressing well and is ahead of schedule on the integration synergies. Nuclear and Precision Health Solutions continues to execute consistent with its strong position in radiopharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution, and we'll continue to benefit from the rapid expansion of Theranostics. This business posted another quarter of impressive revenue growth as we scale our manufacturing and pharmacy network. Finally, within OptiFreight Logistics, customers increasingly appreciate the strong economic value provided by our broad assortment of logistics solutions. The fundamental performance of these 3 distinct businesses continues to validate our decision to prioritize their investment profiles. Turning briefly to full year commentary for fiscal year 2026. The enterprise delivered remarkable financial results. We generated double-digit profit growth across all 5 of our operating segments, even when adjusting out the positive impact of IEEPA tariffs refunds in GMPD. For the full year, enterprise revenue grew 14% to $254 billion, driven by branded Specialty sales. Full year gross margin grew 20% to $9.8 billion and benefited directly from our segment performance and accretive acquisitions. SG&A grew more modestly, and we generated total operating earnings of $3.6 billion or growth of 30%. With our fiscal '26 foundation established, let's look forward and discuss our guidance. First, from a baseline perspective, for ease of comparability between fiscal '26 and our guidance for future years, we will be excluding the $0.31 of onetime positive EPS impact from the IEEPA tariff refund recognition in our just past Q4. So the baseline adjusted non-GAAP EPS number is $10.95. Before I talk about fiscal '27, let's address the long-term guidance. We are reconfirming our long-term EPS growth rate guidance of 12% to 14% per year. This represents our confidence in continued shareholder value creation based on the growth trajectory of our business and the strength of our balance sheet. However, for fiscal year '27, we are guiding EPS growth of 13% to 15% against the baseline, and expect fiscal '27 EPS to be between $12.40 and $12.60. This growth will be driven by continued progress against our businesses and up and down our income statement. Here are some details. We expect Pharma segment revenue to show 3% to 5% growth in the coming year. This more normalized growth rate incorporates a couple of key assumptions. First, in our core Pharma distribution, strong demand, but not the outsized demand we experienced periodically through fiscal year '26. Second, a headwind from the annualization of 2026 IRA price changes and the implementation of 2027 IRA price changes. We anticipate the 2027 percent impact to revenue growth to be generally consistent with what we observed in H2 of fiscal '26 and to have no adverse profit impact. Third, the stability that comes with our successful customer renewal efforts in the past year, including a long-term extension with Kroger. For planning purposes, we are assuming a consistent book of business. Fourth, in Specialty, inclusive of all organic and already announced inorganic efforts, double-digit revenue growth, including contributions from new customers in our Biopharma Solutions business. On the profit line, we expect the Pharma segment to deliver 8% to 11% growth. Drivers include continued generic and brand volume strength and higher margin growth in Specialty, both upstream and downstream. We do expect some generics benefit in fiscal '27 from new item launches, largely driven by fiscal '26 carryover items as well as continued consistent market dynamics in our Red Oak-enabled generics program. We anticipate growth in our MSO platforms, and we will benefit from the previously announced distribution wins that began to ramp in Q4 of fiscal '26. As a reminder, we will lap the Solaris acquisition in Q2 of fiscal '27, and would note that our already announced M&A is expected to contribute 2 to 3 percentage points to profit growth in the year. In terms of Pharma segment profit cadence, we expect Q1 profit growth to be near the high end of our full year guidance range due in part to the benefit from Solaris before we lap it in Q2. For the Global Medical Products and Distribution segment, we project 2% to 4% growth in revenue. This growth is driven by low single-digit utilization and above-market growth in Cardinal Health brand revenue. We are reconfirming our previous GMPD segment profit guide of growing approximately $50 million off the ex IEEPA tariff refund fiscal '26 results with expected segment profit of $200 million to $220 million. This guidance reflects the ongoing execution of our GMPD improvement plan focused on growing Cardinal Health brand, operational simplification and cost optimization. We are monitoring the dynamic tariff environment and geopolitical landscape and normalizing for the IEEPA tariff refund. In fiscal '27, we expect a modest tailwind from tariffs. For the moment, our guidance assumes that our expected tariff tailwind will offset headwinds from rising fuel and commodity costs. However, we continue to monitor both tariffs as well as the length and severity of the conflicts in Iran. Should the conflicts in Iran prove protracted, we would expect that to move us to the lower end of our profit guide for GMPD. Segment profit for GMPD will be weighted in the second half, particularly Q4, driven by margin initiatives and seasonality. For purposes of modeling, we expect the first quarter in fiscal 2027 to be roughly half of the Q1 fiscal 2026 result, driven by the impacts of both foreign currency and the impact of distributor purchase timing. We do expect year-over-year growth in each of the subsequent quarters on an ex IEEPA tariff refund basis. In our Other growth businesses, we anticipate 11% to 13% growth in revenue and expect that growth to accelerate over the course of the year. We expect segment profit to deliver 15% to 18% growth in the year. These metrics are driven by the powerful secular trends our businesses are aligned to capture, leading to strong demand. We also expect benefit from continued operational execution of our fiscal '26 investments while at the same time, continuing to invest during the year in support of ROI-driven future growth opportunities. As a matter of clarity, our guidance includes the partial year impact of the announced tuck-in acquisitions of the Diabetes Health segment of AdaptHealth and the recently completed tuck-in acquisition of Strive Medical, which are expected to add 2 percentage points of profit growth through the year to Other. Moving below the operating line, we forecast interest and other expense to be $240 million to $290 million, benefiting from our year-end high cash balances prior to deployment. We project our effective tax rate to be 19% to 20% for the year. All this together leads to the full year enterprise-wide EPS guidance of growth of 13% to 15% off of the baseline. With respect to cash flow, we expect to generate between $3.5 billion and $4 billion in adjusted free cash flow in fiscal '27, driven by the growth of our businesses, maintaining a disciplined approach to working capital management and the impact of discrete business initiatives focused on cash flow generation. From a disciplined capital allocation model perspective, our plans and priorities remain unchanged. First, we expect capital expenditures of $700 million with infrastructure, technology and other investments across the portfolio in support of future growth. Second, we do not need to take significant actions to protect our balance sheet in the year given our leverage ratio. Third, returning capital to shareholders, as always, remains a priority. In fiscal year '27, we expect at least $1 billion in share repurchases, which would be the third consecutive year of additional share repurchases above our original stated baseline commitment. Consequently, we expect our diluted weighted average shares outstanding to be approximately 233 million. Finally, we are not assuming material M&A, but have reserved modest capital flexibility to support tuck-in acquisitions. Given our cash balances, leverage levels and available financing, we also have financial flexibility to consider strategic M&A or incremental return of capital to shareholders, which we will assess as the fiscal year plays out. In summary, fiscal '26 was an excellent year for Cardinal Health. We executed our strategy, successfully integrated strategic assets and fortified our balance sheet. We are well positioned for growth and long-term value creation in fiscal '27 and beyond. We remain disciplined in our capital allocation, precise in our execution and relentlessly focused on serving our customers. We look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year. Jason, back to you.