Sean Connolly
Analyst · Wells Fargo
Yes. Chris, let me give you my thoughts on that. We are the biggest frozen food manufacturer in North America, if not the world. And we have, as a company, seen in this now 5-, 6-year deep inflation super cycle, we've seen a massive increase in the cost of goods that we've had to deal with. And after about 4 years of taking inflation-justified pricing in order to kind of protect margins, that's where we said on our growth business is you can't shrink your way to prosperity. And that's led by frozen. So we did pivot the strategy to stop taking at some point, all this inflation justified pricing in frozen to get volumes moving again. But that means we had to eat some of that higher cost. And as a result, that business, in particular, because it's so strategic to us, we got volumes moving. They're moving extremely well again this quarter, but we've had to eat some cost. And a lot of that cost has been in animal protein because, as you know, animal proteins have been up. So that is exactly what has driven the margin compression in the frozen business, and it was a choice we made to protect our leading market shares and protect our sales. And if you looked at even the velocities across our portfolio that came out yesterday, I think we've got the best velocities by a good chunk in the group. So now the question comes, what's next? Obviously, we've got the war curveball that we're dealing with. But as I said last quarter, we absolutely -- assuming we can get some element of normalcy, we absolutely expect margin expansion going forward, particularly in frozen. And the building blocks haven't changed. It starts with productivity. In fiscal '26 between core productivity and tariff mitigation, that number is just over 5%, which is very strong. Second, at some point, we're going to get inflation relief, hopefully back to our -- closer to our typical 2%. Certainly, getting the war behind us would help with that. Third, we've got the advancement of our supply chain resiliency investments, including the chicken plants, and that's going to enable us at some point to repatriate outsourced volume, which will be a good guy for margin. And then fourth, we are taking price, and we have taken price surgically, and we've seen encouraging elasticities. And then the fifth thing is, as you've heard me talk in the last couple of quarters, we've kicked off this Project Catalyst, which is an ambitious initiative to reengineer our core work processes, leveraging technology. And that's going to be a benefit to both the P&L and the balance sheet. In the P&L, it will be a benefit to sales. It will be a benefit to profit. In the balance sheet, we see opportunity there in terms of reducing working capital, increasing cash. And that's a real tangible and exciting opportunity. So yes, it's margin and it's more than margin in that particular project. So put those things together, and we feel very good about the margin outlook from here. Obviously, it wouldn't hurt if the world settled down a bit. But we'll deal with that because that's not something we control. We got to respond to that.