John F. Gehring
Analyst · Barclays Capital
Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to touch on 4 topics this morning. I'll begin with our first quarter performance highlights. Next, I'll address comparability matters. Then onto cash flow, capital and balance sheet items. And finally, I will provide some comments on our outlook for the balance of fiscal 2013. Let's start with our first quarter performance highlights. For the quarter, we reported net sales of $3.3 billion, up 7%, driven by pricing and acquisitions in our Consumer Foods segment. And in our Commercial Foods segment, we had volume gains in both Lamb Weston and flour milling, as well as improved pricing and mix in our Lamb Weston business. Net sales also reflect the impact of lower year-over-year wheat prices in our flour milling operations. In this quarter, we reported fully diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.61 versus $0.22 in the year-ago period. Adjusting for items impacting comparability, fully diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.44 versus $0.31 in the prior-year quarter, a 42% increase. And while this is very strong performance, I would note that the year-ago first quarter was our softest quarter in fiscal 2012. While Gary addressed our segment results in some detail, I would like to touch on a few highlights, starting with our Consumer Foods segment, where net sales for the quarter were approximately $2 billion, up about 8% from the year-ago period. This reflects 8 points of growth from acquisitions. Organic net sales were essentially flat as favorable mix [ph] of about 5% was offset by a 4% base volume decline and foreign exchange had a negative 1% impact on net sales this quarter. Our Consumer Foods segment operating profit, adjusted for items impacting comparability, was $242 million or up about 14% from the year-ago period. While acquisitions contributed to the operating profit growth, more of the growth came from margin management in the base business, driven by pricing and cost savings, offset by moderating inflation. The higher operating profit also reflects increased marketing costs and about a negative 2% impact from foreign exchange this quarter. Our Consumer Foods supply chain cost-reduction programs continue to yield good results and delivered cost savings of approximately $75 million in the quarter. These programs are expected to deliver over $240 million of cost savings for the full fiscal year. For the fiscal first quarter, we experienced inflation of about 3%, a bit better than our expectations. On marketing, Consumer Foods advertising and promotion expense for the quarter was $95 million, up about 24% from the prior-year quarter, principally driven by increased investment against our base business. In our Commercial Foods segment, net sales were approximately $1.3 billion or up about 5%, reflecting strong international growth in Lamb Weston and improved volume and mix across the segment, as well as disciplined pricing in our Lamb Weston business, where we increased prices to offset higher input costs. The pass-through of lower wheat costs in the milling operations had a negative $38-million impact on sales for this fiscal quarter. The Commercial Foods segment operating profit, adjusted for items impacting comparability, increased 37% from the year-ago period to $140 million. The strong year-over-year performance reflects continued good fundamentals at both Lamb Weston and ConAgra Mills, as well as the soft performance in the prior year quarter. Within this segment, Lamb Weston posted a very strong double-digit rate of profit growth, driven by a strong international growth, favorable volumes and price/mix, as well as production efficiencies including a smooth crop transition. ConAgra Mills' operating profit was in line with the year-ago period, and overall, we are very pleased with the performance of this segment. Corporate expenses, adjusted for items impacting comparability, were $75 million for the quarter versus $67 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported tax rate for the fiscal quarter was approximately 33%, and the rate on comparable earnings was slightly lower. Now I'll move onto my second topic, items impacting comparability. Overall, we have approximately $0.17 per diluted share of net income in this quarter's EPS related to several items. First, on hedging. For the fiscal first quarter, the net hedging gain included in corporate expense was approximately $130 million or $0.20 per share. This number is larger than what we typically see, but it is consistent with the level of volatility in the commodity markets. I'll say a bit more about our hedging in a moment. Next, we recorded $4 million or $0.01 per share of restructuring and other onetime charges related to our cost reduction and organizational efficiency initiatives, principally in our Consumer Foods segment. In addition, we recorded approximately $7 million or $0.01 per share of acquisition-related expenses. And finally, we recorded approximately $8 million or $0.02 per share of expense related to legal matters which relate to prior years. Next, I'll cover my third topic, cash flow, capital and balance sheet items. First, we ended the quarter with $117 million of cash on hand and $272 million of outstanding commercial paper borrowings. The increased level of commercial paper borrowings is principally related to funding acquisitions. And subsequent to quarter end, we repaid our outstanding commercial paper borrowings with the proceeds of our recent debt issuance that I'll say more about in a few moments. We continue to emphasize cash flow within our business, and for fiscal 2013 we expect to deliver strong operating cash flows in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion. And on working capital, we continue to make progress against our working capital initiatives. For the full fiscal year, we expect that working capital improvements in our base business will contribute modestly to cash flow from continuing operations as we continue to improve our cash conversion cycle metrics. On capital expenditures for the quarter, we had capital expenditures of $99 million versus $96 million in the prior-year period. And for the full fiscal year, we now expect CapEx to modestly exceed our previous estimate of $450 million [ph] due to some additional growth investments we expect to pursue. Net interest expense was $49 million in the first quarter versus $53 million in the year-ago quarter. Dividends for the quarter increased from $94 million in the year-ago quarter to $98 million, reflecting a higher dividend rate, offset by a lower number of shares. And now let's turn to capital allocation. And let's start with growth. We continue to execute against our growth strategy focused on strategic adjacencies, private label and international. During the quarter, we completed the acquisition of Bertolli and P.F. Chang's multi-serve frozen meals. These brands are great additions to our frozen portfolio, and we're excited about the growth opportunities we can pursue with the combination of these brands and our frozen innovation capability. Going forward, we will continue to pursue acquisition opportunities where there is a strategic fit and a good financial return, and we are confident that we can further leverage our capabilities and our strong balance sheet to create value by investing for growth in a disciplined manner. We also remain focused on organic growth and profit enhancement investments, including investments to support innovation, production capacity and our cost savings initiatives. The other elements of our balanced capital allocation approach also remained unchanged. We reiterate our commitment to an investment-grade credit rating but also recognize the importance of maintaining our strong dividend and executing share repurchases from time to time. With respect to our dividend, as Gary noted, our Board of Directors just increased our quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share or an annualized rate of $1 per share. This reflects our confidence in our business and our expectations for continued strong cash flow generations. And on share repurchases, we purchased about $75 million of our shares in the fiscal first quarter. And as of quarter end, we had approximately $450 million of available share repurchase authorization. And finally, subsequent to quarter end, we completed a $750-million debt issuance in 3 tranches of $250 million each of 3-year, 5-year and 10-year notes. The offering was very well received by the market, and we were able to secure some very attractive interest rates. We have used a portion of the proceeds to repay outstanding commercial paper borrowings, and the balance will be used for general corporate purposes. Now I'd like to share some comments on our fiscal 2013 outlook. As Gary mentioned, we have updated our full year earnings expectations for fiscal 2013 based upon our strong performance in the first quarter and our outlook for the balance of the fiscal year. We now expect fully diluted earnings per share, adjusted for items impacting comparability, to be in the range of $2.03 to $2.06 or roughly 10% to 12% growth from our prior year base of $1.84 per share. This update to our fiscal 2013 earnings estimate reflects net sales growth in the range of 7% to 8%, with sales growth for the Consumer Foods segment expected to be in the high single digits, primarily driven by our recent acquisitions. And in our Commercial Foods segment, we expect modest top line growth in the 3% range as volume, pricing and mix improvements in the segment are expected to be partially offset by the impact of lower wheat prices on our milling business. This fiscal 2013 estimate also reflects modest gross margin improvement in our Consumer Foods segment, driven by pricing and mix improvements and strong cost savings, partially offset by the impact of more moderate inflation. While the commodity markets, especially grains, have been very volatile of late, we remain confident in our ability to effectively manage input costs and margins over the balance of the fiscal year. On a related note, we recognized a large hedging gain this quarter that we treat as a comparability item, consistent with our normal practice. The gain offset previously accumulated losses, and the remaining net gain will be reclassified to operating segments as the underlying commodities are used in the business. To that point, we currently expect to reclassify about $35 million of this net gain to segment operating results in the remaining 3 quarters of fiscal 2013. And for the full fiscal year, based on our assessment of input requirements and cost trends on these inputs, along with the hedging actions we've taken to manage risk, we now expect that our net inflation for this fiscal year will be slightly lower than our original estimate of mid-single digits. And as I noted previously for fiscal 2013, we continue to expect cost savings in excess of $240 million in our Consumer Foods business. Also, we have budgeted a strong increase in marketing support this year, and that's in support of our long-term brand building initiatives. In the Commercial Foods segment, both our Lamb Weston and our flour milling businesses are positioned to perform well, although with more modest profit growth over the balance of the year. Additionally, the effective tax rate for fiscal 2013 is expected to be in the range of 34% for the full year, although this rate may fluctuate somewhat quarter-to-quarter. And while we are confident in our capabilities and how we are executing against our strategic initiatives, we do expect more modest year-over-year earnings growth over the balance of the year, as the comps will get tougher, and we expect to continue to execute against a stronger investment plan in support of our brands to position our business for long-term success. Overall, we're excited about the start of the fiscal year, and we're confident in our ability to deliver very attractive earnings growth for fiscal 2013. That concludes our formal remarks. I want to thank you for your interest in ConAgra Foods. And Gary and I, along with André Hawaux and Paul Maass, will be happy to take your questions. I will now turn it back over to the operator to begin the Q&A portion of our session. Operator?